I'm not a TA junkie but that appears to be broadly the consensus from those that are on these forums (ok, the ones I'd listen to, then), and roughly what I'd expect from looking at the charts and sticking a finger in the wind. Though I'm not so sure low 400s won't be where we end up. We've been on borrowed time too long in the 600s on low low volumes and it's long past time to finish this cycle.
That would 'feel' more right to me, in a totally unscientific way. THEN life might get interesting again.
As far as I am concerned we only ever got up to $600 range due to one big massive whale buyer on the one day where their seemed to be a threat of Ukraine's currency going down the tubes. Both his buying power and the avalanche of panic buying that he instigated took us up to $710 but since then, the market has been reluctant to consolidate anywhere at these levels and we are now right back where we were pre-March 3rd. Back then, I was shorting at $575, and looking for buy ins right through $460 - $500. Perhaps we might end up in low $400's, or lets face it, even the $300 range is very possible. Sentiment is actually much more negative than it was 3-4 weeks ago. Back at the time of Gox ceasing operations, there was a big panic, and an ultra volatile bottom and recovery that had everyone around here slapping each other on the back for having 'got in at the bottom'. "Hooray, its all over, now 2 da moon!" The current negative sentiment is of more an apathetic variety. The Bitstamp order book has shrunk. I suspect that a lot of Bitcoin investors like myself, have removed a proportion of their capital from the exchanges. I think the sense that there is going to be a pressing need to panic buy Bitcoin at some point is subsiding. The complete collapse in the Alt/Coins market is also a strong indicator that we are now on the hangover side of a crypto/craze and we now have a crypto-fatigue, which should bury the vast majority of the Shit-coins, leaving just a small handful standing. Bitcoin, Litecoin, and perhaps a couple of others that I neither know nor care about. For the record, I don't think that Bitcoin is ever going to transform itself into money for various reasons. Not least of all because the market is already far too cornered which is conducive to pump n dump to eternity schemes until the system can't takes it no more, and the simple truth that it isn't actually backed by anything except it's interchangeability into government backed fiat currencies, which in turn is fuelled almost entirely by speculative demand. Bitcoin 1.0's entire potential will be as a means of quickly transferring wealth around in a way that can by-pass certain financial authorities and also as a store of wealth but only in emergency situations. Bitcoin 2.0 is going to need some kind of commodity or authority backing, which is exactly the sort of digital currency that any libertarian worth their salt is going to detest, but unfortunately that is the nature of money. Money is of the devil and for the devil. Well I'm not going to cry many rivers for the altcoins. Or the 'to da moon' brigade. Apathy is about right. It's a kind of frustrated passive anger that their train hasn't come after all. What that means long term I'm not sure yet. I think we're certainly crypto-fatigued for now, and rightly so. But even so I can't see this going much lower than 400. Longer term, I don't know whether bitcoin has a real future or whether something else will take over. From my perspective, it does solve real-world problems - I get paid in btc for working for people on 3 continents. Of course, it's a transmission mechanism first and foremost, rather than a currency itself. But still: enough use to stay around and if it spreads that will only become more the case. I've got to say I'm curious to know what will happen at the end of the year when big money starts to get access. Second Market retail investors, maybe Winklevii ETF, who knows what else. In that respect bitcoin has a major headstart on anything else. Maybe that will be a damp squib, maybe it will be the mother of all bubbles, maybe it will be more sustainable - or there will be spikes and dips but the dips will still make $600 look like a bargain. Won't know until we get nearer to that happening. There's a lot of VC funding and interests in bitcoin, so I'm cautiously optimistic right now. |
|
|
|
|
I'd be interested to see 5-day to 1-month predictions, no matter how inaccurate. One of the fun things about projects like this is the incremental improvements that happen as you implement new features.
Cool project, anyway, and will look forward to seeing how it develops.
|
|
|
|
 So Mat, did you decide things were getting interesting again? I noticed that there was a customer moving around a 2K bid order just under spot price sometime last week. So on the strength of his support/manipulation, I bought in at $640. As soon as he took his bid away (without it getting filled), I sold at $637. I did have a series of Bids running down from $590s going down in increments of $10, but pulled most of them as I believed Bitcoin would offer me lots of opportunity to invest at these prices levels if I wanted to. I got some bids filled yesterday at $557 (sold at $575) and again today at $547 (sold at $558). My next bids are in $530's and then $520's. Now, this is the price range I fancied Bitcoin to reach ($534 came to me through layers of fluffy clouds one fine spring morning), but now that we are approaching it, it doesn't seem very bottomy at all, Bitcoin is trending down there much faster than I anticipated it would (this would have been worth shorting and I decided that this market wasn't going to be good for leveraged trading) and I am seeing nothing to suggest that Bitcoin is going to reverse in the lower $500s. If the bottom is to be in the low $500s, then we are going to get plenty opportunity to identify it as being a bottom and get in and out several times whilst we test the water. I don't know what I think at the moment but applying logic to the charts suggest a test of upper $400 range at the very least. I'm not a TA junkie but that appears to be broadly the consensus from those that are on these forums (ok, the ones I'd listen to, then), and roughly what I'd expect from looking at the charts and sticking a finger in the wind. Though I'm not so sure low 400s won't be where we end up. We've been on borrowed time too long in the 600s on low low volumes and it's long past time to finish this cycle. That would 'feel' more right to me, in a totally unscientific way. THEN life might get interesting again. |
|
|
|
I'm waiting for macd
What one? 4hr, 6hr, 12hr, 1 day, 1 week? So Mat, did you decide things were getting interesting again? |
|
|
|
Hey guys, so I have a slightly more reasonable prediction than the "prepare for march 16th dip" post made a little while back. As some of you may have seen in a post I made several days ago, I have been working on software that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. The predictions can be seen at http://www.btcpredictions.com/The short term neural network has been consistently predicting a dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 starting around 4am EST, reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am. Obviously this program's predictions are not always right, and predictions that are further away are more difficult for it to make. However, it seems relatively confident about this dip. I believe the dip will occur, though the magnitude may be a bit off or the dip may be shifted in one direction slightly. So we'll see how well the software performs! Let me translate the OP's text for everyone: "Hey guys, I'm a newb that just create an account a few days ago. I'm really a shark trader and/or whale that is trolling, but I'm going to pretend that I'm an innocent and I've got some amazing bitcoin TA powers so that people believe me. I'm affiliated in some way or have insider knowledge of the group of whales that plan to post a fake FUD article about China banning bitcoin during the night. It should happen around 4am EST. When they do, the Chinese market is going to go into crazy panic sell off mode, and the price should [dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am]. My cronies will then take advantage of the panic by scooping up cheap coins. But you'll think that somehow I have these amazingly predictive TA powers, and you'll give me kudos for being right and start following me in the Speculation forum. You'll also think my neural net software is amazing, when it really doesn't do shit. Yay me and my cronies for conning you all."  Seriously?! Grow up. |
|
|
|
So just to summarise, even when someone is wrong, we should thank them for not being wronger. Especially if we can see the market movement that he didn't predict by simply looking at Bitstamp's front page as it happens?
This was entertaining but now it's boring.
Whatever YOU saw on bitstamps front page apparently wasn't enough for you to 'warn' the community well before hand with great specificity. Whatever you may have thought was obvious, clearly wasn't obvious enough because the OP was ripped from day one to present, as if there would be no downward movement. My grammar sucks, so I sincerely appreciate it when someone offers correction, because it enables me to be a better me. If I cursed everyone that tried to help me it would serve me no good purpose in the long run. But there are many people that don't want to be corrected, that take offense at correction, and seek vengeance for pointing out the error of their ways, when all the corrector was trying to do was to make them better at what they are clearly trying to do. As for thanks, you can be thankful for earnest effort before and/or after results, regardless of the results; how much does it hurt anyone to be thankful for positive efforts paid your way? No. That's because I don't pretend to be a prophet. This thread has exhausted my patience. I really don't think we're going to see eye to eye on this and that's just fine with me. If you really can't grasp everything that was wrong with OP's predictions from what's already been written in the thread, nothing more from me is going to convince you. Either way, time to sign off. |
|
|
|
3600 bitcoins created out of thin air everyday. At $575 This is $2million.
What is difficult to comprehend here?
Miners currently enjoy obscene profit margins, while providing no value.
70k transactions per day occuring. $30 per transaction going to the miners.
From this we can estimate maybe 5000-24000 daily active users. Each user is essentially being charged $400 to $180 per useage of the network. This is being absorbed by all users.
There is not enough demand in the system to absorb the coins being conjured up out of nothing. Miner's are rent seeking, and worst of all this rent seeking is more and more concentrated as elite miners dominate the network.
Hello Lord Trollmore. How many threads are you going to bang this drum on? Let us know when someone starts listening. Or, preferably, not. You don't like fact? Miners will keep selling as they are enjoying record margins. Sorry you are angry and don't understand bad economic incentives. Er, uh? I think what you're saying is that supply and demand affect prices. Most of us on this forum know this already and have seen it happen quite a lot before. Whilst this is a fact, it's curious that you feel the need to create an account to tell us about it. |
|
|
|
Well... now it's down pretty far.
Yes, though I think it's important we don't give Cosmo any credit for this. I'm wondering whether we're finally on our way to capitulation after a period of tedious stagnation, interrupted by a naughty whale throwing his cash at the market. hahahahaaaa so many are quick to ridicule and slow to praise. Would it hurt you to thank Cosmo for the heads-up? Would it hurt you to acknowledge that his friend felt something and tried to warn those of us who cared to pay attention? Regardless of the reason for the dip, you were put on notice, and thereby warned. If you see no storm clouds, someone with arthritis tells you I think it's going to rain, you could dismiss him as crazy but he's just telling you what he feels. If the storm clouds don't make it, get delayed, or move in another direction thereby providing fodder for the disbeliever, it doesn't negate the fact that it was coming. People easily say hindsight is 20/20 but the truth is even those viewing history see it in different ways, interpret it differently, and appreciate it in different ways. Bad enough there are not many WILLING to make predictions, but when someone extends themselves to do it, they get ripped before, during, and after the event regardless of how it turns out. How do you expect anyone to get better at something if you discourage them from practicing? So just to summarise, even when someone is wrong, we should thank them for not being wronger. Especially if we can see the market movement that he didn't predict by simply looking at Bitstamp's front page as it happens? This was entertaining but now it's boring. |
|
|
|
3600 bitcoins created out of thin air everyday. At $575 This is $2million.
What is difficult to comprehend here?
Miners currently enjoy obscene profit margins, while providing no value.
70k transactions per day occuring. $30 per transaction going to the miners.
From this we can estimate maybe 5000-24000 daily active users. Each user is essentially being charged $400 to $180 per useage of the network. This is being absorbed by all users.
There is not enough demand in the system to absorb the coins being conjured up out of nothing. Miner's are rent seeking, and worst of all this rent seeking is more and more concentrated as elite miners dominate the network.
Hello Lord Trollmore. How many threads are you going to bang this drum on? Let us know when someone starts listening. Or, preferably, not. |
|
|
|
I don't think this is to blame. Price needed to head south anyway. If anything, that gave it an excuse, but I doubt even that much. |
|
|
|
My bet is on insiders. Really bad news incoming soon.
Correction was expected/due anyway. Even at $600 bitcoin was still overbought. We just haven't seen the end of the post-December ATH adjustment yet. It looked like it for a bit but then some whale confused everything. This is just picking up where we left off. TERA and Arepo might nuance it better but as I see it $400-500 is closer to where bitcoin "should" be at the moment. |
|
|
|
Currently price is dropping because gox coins being dumped on the market.
No proof, just my opinion based on the price action.
Haha, maybe - but Karp has suddenly 'found' 200k coins he didn't know were there before. Panic the supply isn't as limited as people thought? Gox loses coins, price goes down. Gox finds coins, price goes... down. |
|
|
|
2k I'll shit myself and any higher I don't even know what I will do. Surely there are plenty of bodily functions left for you to express your surprise? |
|
|
|
Well... now it's down pretty far.
Yes, though I think it's important we don't give Cosmo any credit for this. I'm wondering whether we're finally on our way to capitulation after a period of tedious stagnation, interrupted by a naughty whale throwing his cash at the market. |
|
|
|
Elliot Wave is hocus pocus. You might as well throw darts at a board instead.
Even if elliot wave has any truth to it, it won't apply to bitcoin. Why? Bitcoin is not a fluid market. You have 100 people who control between 1/3rd to 1/2 of all coins, add another 200 people and that most likely jumps to 3/4th's. Basically, out of the estimated 500k bitcoin holders the absolute vast majority hold the equivalent of zero. Elliot Wave's won't work on such a manipulated market. Even die hard bitcoin believer's had no qualms about cashing out into evil fiat at $1200.
Why are you here? That's the second thread I've seen your trolling on in 10 minutes. |
|
|
|
|
Granted that capitulation hasn't occurred yet and overall sentiment is bearish, witnessed by the constant slow trudge downwards in the last month or so.
When we do get there, which presumably will be on the scale of weeks rather than months and 400-500 rather than 200-300, then what?
I'm not a "$10,000 by Christmas to da moon choo choo!!!!" type myself. I can see more measured appreciation rather than new bubbles (we've been there, done that...). On the other hand I have no idea what developments VC funding, Winklevoss ETF, new investment etc will bring.
|
|
|
|
|
Very interesting. I listened to this and understood it as a critique of inflationary, government-backed fiat, bitcoin as a solution people have found to some of its problems, but one that is still human, and therefore subject to human failings itself. As you say, neither particularly positive or negative about bitcoin - but implicitly critical of fiat, banks and government.
Incidentally, I knew this guy at Cambridge - I studied in the same faculty for 7 years, passing him on a daily or weekly basis in the corridors. When you spend that long around someone, you generally get to know them a little at least, just through repeated incidental contact. It starts with the nod that happens on mutual recognition, perhaps progresses to a passing 'hi', a few words exchanged, maybe the odd longer conversation, and so on.
After 7 years, we weren't even on nodding terms...
|
|
|
|
|
Yeah, it suddenly took off in the last few minutes and caught up. Weird. I guess it happens.
|
|
|
|
You know what I am getting at.
There is absolutely a speculation price, and a more realistic price moved by adoption/commerce demand.
There have been countless threads on the topic, usually titled with: "Whats the real value of Bitcoin".
Countless articles. you know what I mean.
It is not all the same thing.
This is sort of taking the conversation off track.
Know what you are getting at. I've been asking the same question, with similar answers... I'm guessing, but I wouldn't be surprised if current adoption hadn't been more than priced in by speculators and so, with MatTheCat, I'm half expecting a stagnant period as the 'real' value goes up as the infrastructure grows but speculators cash out at the same time. (Only half, because it's bitcoin, so anything could happen tomorrow.) My question is what effect will new money have, if say a VC buys $1m of bitcoin, or 1 million ordinary Joes decide they want to keep $10 worth of coins to buy beer with. How much does that push up the price? That's a more 'realistic' valuation to me... but I've little idea how to go about calculating it. |
|
|
|
Other people seem to have had similar problems, but not sure if they're exactly the same - or if it's related to the recent outage. I received this transaction https://blockchain.info/tx/bc1ba3541c6753b5643b5624eac15ef0b46ae80e8f6c5ad618bb24e922f45497 earlier today, and almost immediately transferred the funds (slightly more) out to Bitstamp. The two transactions happened at 18:42 and 18:49. Now, nearly two hours later, neither is showing a single confirmation. I'm using blockchain.info and did pay 0.0001 btc in transaction fees. Related may be that 1SochiWwFFySPjQoi2biVftXn8NRPCSQC felt the need to send me 1 satoshi earlier in the day, which hasn't confirmed either. Any ideas? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
