Numbers eh? I am sure we have been through this before  My portfolio is well diversified as it is thanks. I have gems such as tesco in there dragging down its annual performance :p I made an ill informed purchase of a few coins at 680. I have bought repeatedly in the 3xx range. I made a large (for me) purchase at about 300 which i partially sold back to cash at around this price. I tend to trickle a few coins every week or two in depending how much disposable I have left (although the OH has started asking 'how much of this bitcoin do you need to buy?' lol). As long as I buy my share allocation each month and pay the mortgage/bills the excess goes into bitcoin unless the price is very high. For me it is the most exciting part of my portfolio by a mile. If it disappears in a puff of smoke I will be sad as I was rather hoping to buy a small yacht next year. |
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As the ema's cross the price dumps Such a natural market ha. Well, Bitcoin is often marketed as something which "obeys the strict rule of math". Moving averages are basic math. Isn't it only natural then if the Bitcoin market is also moved by math...? You mean trading bots following the law of math |
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Drawing some lines on charts I can see us sitting here until december the 11th before breaking up or down out of a massive wedge. Of course the US marshalls auction will likely decide the direction of breakout.
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Porkchop:
You know my strategy as I have also written it down here many times. I am accumulating a position gradually, started in around march 2013 and I add on weakness. Very occasionally I may trade if i see the price go to panic extremes.
So your current trading strategy is not to trade. That only begs one remaining question, are you holding btc or not?
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As the ema's cross the price dumps Such a natural market ha. |
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The early adopters are smart. The early adopters are not on, here, though unless they are just bored. Yes, getting in on the first major digital currency in its infancy, even if that digital currency carries on, is replaced, or is stifled by regulation and outside forces, was very smart. I don't think that is relevant to the present day, though. In the present day, there are two major questions: (1) How much of the price run-up was bubble froth and how much of it was "true" (for lack of a better word); and (2) Will there be another (or other) demand spike events/will the user base increase in a punctuated equilibrium fashion -- stagnate, stagnate, stagnate, boom, stagnate, stagnate, stagnate, boom... etc.
I've heard decent arguments in either direction... but then I've heard even more just crazy $10000000000 coin madness.
The early adopters went through the exact same thought process you and I did when we first discovered bitcoin. Just earlier Nothing has changed with bitcoin since then except that it's now far more likely to succeed, which is reflected in its exchange price. If it continues to be used as a investment medium, if user adoption continues in fits and starts then the price has to rise further. I wouldn't bet the farm on it but it is worth a sizeable punt |
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Instead of criticising and being deliberately contrary porkchop, why not post a firm prediction for us here first? Oh and a list of your recent and active trades would be appreciated I won't hold my breath! |
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By your logic you would never buy anything that has fallen from an all time high. Fail. Anyway let's see what the exchange price is after the US Marshalls office gets out of the way. What will you do if the price inexplicably begins to rise up and takes out 480 before drifting higher still? |
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Loving the huge sell walls on bitfinex from 392 upwards to 400 lol. Someone doesn't want the price moving up. |
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People should be able to simply buy or sell all their holding by posting a msg on the thread with buy or sell. A bot could keep track of participants balances and post shortly after with a summary for the person. It could post a scoreboard on here too.
well, I never wrote a bot, but I know some programming. Will take a look at. Doesn't sound too complicated. We still have one month, so maybe we can get it working  If someone else has more experience with bots, please, do it  I am pretty busy but it would be a fun project for you dnalor! the problem is I can't find an API... Without API I'm not able to code it. There is no api? Well you can scrape the webpage instead |
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People should be able to simply buy or sell all their holding by posting a msg on the thread with buy or sell. A bot could keep track of participants balances and post shortly after with a summary for the person. It could post a scoreboard on here too.
well, I never wrote a bot, but I know some programming. Will take a look at. Doesn't sound too complicated. We still have one month, so maybe we can get it working If someone else has more experience with bots, please, do it I am pretty busy but it would be a fun project for you dnalor! |
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Exhibit A: The psychology of an idiot
I don't give a fuck about the price. The concept of bitcoin is just so damn cool. I don't care whether it's actually useful to anyone or not. I just love the name 'bitcoin'. I'll pay anything to own a bitcoin, I don't care!!! Who cares, it's only money!! Not like it's useful for anything else. If I have bitcoin, who needs money anyway! Bitcoin is better than money, even though nobody accepts it. It's just because they're uneducated and they don't understand its worth $10,000 even though the market price is $10. I don't care what other people think, they're wrong!! In 100 years I'll still own my bitcoin - that's all that matters! Even if it goes to $10, I'll still hold.
Yeah so the early adopters in 2009 who grasped the idea, mined the coins, bought coins in the early years which had no economic purpose whatsoever were idiots. The people who bought bitcoins when they were 10$, such idiots! I am guessing everyone who has accrued any wealth is an idiot! |
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I only deleted it because I had quoted you. My tolerance to your posted photos is quite low, so i flick you on ignore for long periods when you go overtime with it.
If people only bought shares or commodities of things that were rising then markets wouldn't function particularly well would they. You are criticising buying something which has been falling in price from a recent high. But that buying is done so with the expectation that the price will rise in the future. Not an unreasonable expectation given the bear seems to have stalled and we are significantly down from the previous manic high, and that zooming out shows a massive long term up trend. But you could be right!
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Bearish divergence in 15 min MACD. To confirm it, more dumps needed in a couple of hours and down to 360$ tomorrow.
Ha. Or the price continues to stagnate in the 380's before breaking out on this attempt through 390 and beyond. |
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People should be able to simply buy or sell all their holding by posting a msg on the thread with buy or sell. A bot could keep track of participants balances and post shortly after with a summary for the person. It could post a scoreboard on here too.
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Last year was $ 6 Millions on Black Friday.
If this year is $ 22 Million it is not bad (366%).
It is no bad if people remind the BTC exchange rate is 1/3 of a year ago at the same time.
People underwater with their bitcoins exchange rate would not be willing to spend them and would prefer spend their always and forever depreciating paper.
Well precisely. Hence my firm response to the little tinker. |
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My bad. What got you so riled up then?
Seriously, for like a month now... people have been total dicks to me. Today, I said we might get a slight downdraft following the Black Friday buying (retailers will unload at least some and people won't buy as much once the sales pass)... not a crazy idea. Then, I get like pages of s--- about how I am a retarded newbie who doesn't understand the technology and how BTC is going to like a gazillion by the end of the week. I mean, the tenor on here has changed but also a lot of the more hardened cultists are pushing out actual discussion. Like, my feeling, is... the technology is cool, the exchanges suck, there is a ton of manipulation a lot of which has to do with interests outside of BTC, and I'm interested in hearing people's ideas about where the price is going -- whether they agree or disagree with me. Not craziness, bullying, and referencing a single one-off trade (that random spike to $450... I had a short at around the mid-380s, closed it around $410 when I realized it was going to keep running, and recouped part of the loss on the way up and back down). Like, at this point, I'm kind of agnostic on my feelings about the price outside the very short-term. I think the community is too hostile for new people to come in, demand is flagging, and there are some headwinds (centralized miners needing to dump to cover costs, retailers dumping at least some... even if it is really BitPay or Coinbase dumping excess over demand, and regulation). At the same time, the price has already dropped so much that I can't say I really think it will drop much more... just that it won't be going to $10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. A few years off, if this remains the primary crypto then society may catch up and you might get another explosion. This isn't a sure thing and not something happening in the next couple months -- that's a protracted event that requires a few things happen before hand... but it is possible. But, even that aside, this is a speculation page. I'm speculating. Some days I speculate it will go up. Some days I speculate it will go down. But, instead, I just get lambasted by a bunch of hodl-tards (different than people just holding for the obvious reason of uncertainty and to avoid exchange fees -- which is smart) who accuse me of being a troll or something else. The community has just gotten really screwed up... it's turning back into an echo chamber. Frankly, I'm thinking about playing out a higher leveraged short just from these interactions -- maybe things are worse than I had realized. It does get a bit heated on here, there is no doubt about that. I personally value your commentary on the site. Differing opinions are necessary and of course when everyone wants the price to rise being a bear is going to get you flack. Trading short term movements of a volatile commodity is tiring, especially when the market - as you say - is so choppy and dare I say it heavily manipulated (it obviously is). I don't think anyone really is being deliberately hostile to you with a malicious intent. Your nickname is newbie so it that is why you get called a newbie!? Most people try trading and leverage and some if they are good do well. Most don't (i didn't eventually) and that is reflected in the tensions on the wall thread from time to time. The grizzly holders like me have decided to just throw the darts at the wall in one throw and sit down and have a beer until they hit the dartboard. Don't forget lots of them bought in when bitcoin was far less expensive than now and can remain totally relaxed about the price even now in the 3xx's. Yep things are uncertain but I wouldn't lose heart just yet. We are in that interesting phase of possibly technically ending a prolonged bear market and things may get suddenly far more exciting in the near future. Or not |
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My bad. What got you so riled up then?
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Meh. This forum would be empty if opinions and ideas posted here would be held to the highest standards. Just look at it like that: one day, we'll look back on our time in the forum here and will reminisce about that cranky CS prof who posted among us and entertained us with his crazy theories. And we'll do so while floating on an air mattress in a pool full of diamonds.(1)(1) Obligatory "rich beyond our wildest dreams" addendum to keep the readers happy  True. I am just a bit cranky today because I am off work with stomach flu. Cramps are not fun. It maybe a secondary case of internet overload syndrome Edit: yep crazy prof is harmless fun |
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Still shorting @ around 385 from few weeks ago.
Prospect of next month: horizantal. range $350-$450.
It must suck to be trading with less than ten btc when you had the opportunity to just buy and hold in 2011 but didn't because you thought you could get rich quick. That might account for your constant bearish "analysis", yes? No, I have not constantly been bearish. I have been bearish at precisely the right times. Yet you have failed to capitalise meaningfully in anyway whatsoever on potentially the greatest bull run in financial history. You think people are interested in reading your forecast ideas or trading setups with that recent performance? Worse you continue to post predictions here and even attempt to manipulate the price to unsuspecting newbie readers - who can forget your "final final final final warnings!!this time is really the last one!!" in recent months. Or your, what was it, 70% likelihood of bitcoin reaching 50 dollars imminently or some such nonsense. There are good traders on this forum, people with excellent TA that even simple speculators like me enjoy reading and occasionally using. Some are even bears! But you add nothing useful or of any value whatsoever to this forum. You must be good at something in life. Do us all a favour and do that instead of posting this crap. Two trolls... different side of the same bet... Xiaoxiao at least has the benefit of being right lately. You, Inca, haven't been right since about July. Still, two trolls, different side of the same bet. If you weren't having a bad day I might be offended. If you review my post history you will find a post directly warning you personally about leverage several months ago. I am not sure I have made anything approaching a firm prediction on this forum ever! My last impassioned defence of the holder may have been in July though and no doubt it was positive. Long term are the words most holders use for a bitcoin investment. If calling out shameless manipulators, and charlatan traders offering up 'analysis' to unsuspecting newbies makes me a troll then fine |
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