This kind of growth happened before. The 3-5 big bulls of bitcoins history have all been in that range %-wize. So its endeed possible. Only time will tell. As it is now, everything looks like we are in an bull marked and the boom is on in a matter of days.
The market has very little resemblance to how it was during previous price explosions. Anyone basing anything off historical data got their posterior handed to them over the last year or so. If BTC was five hundred years old then old data is worth listening to. Right now it's all being made up as we go along. Uncertainty is the only constant. But this year will be a lot more fun if the price breaks out of the log downtrend definitively, even if just to float around for the rest of the year. The market needs to know what a bitcoin is worth - 1200, 160 or somewhere in between  |
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Still mostly long, still undecided where we're heading in the near to mid future. In the simplest terms, there's a strong case for the bears in that the move from Jan looks very much not impulsive (volume wise, and probably also by EW - which I don't really practice though), and there's a strong case for the bulls in that the early Jan capitulation looked very convincing (volume wise again), that we broke a number of long standing resistances (MAs and TLs), and finally that so far, the market seems to shake off any attempt to induce panic selling. If that sounds rather unhelpful, you're entirely right, but that's all I got :/
I have a distinct memory in december 2013 of wishing I had been granted a little more time to accumulate coins before the rapid move upwards. I have now accumulated a lot more so that wish has come true. I could have had a lot more but I suspect most people on here were surprised by the length and depth of the bear market in 2014. I personally am a little bit sceptical we immediately go into bull mode. The January low seems legitimate in terms of being a high volume crash and subsequent reversal though a lot depends on where the price settles in the coming weeks. I expect range trading around this level until some major news later this year or the halving gets close enough to stimulate a FOMO rally. But I didn't predict the last bull run either :p |
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I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?
I know there's a kind of "law" in (amateur, perhaps also professional) algorithmic trading that your strategy should be time invariant. Some even go as far as saying it should be market invariant. In reality, I think it's more a heuristic to find out if the "pattern" you think you detected is just noise, or if you're onto something. This is completely 'finger in the air', but I sometimes think that certain patterns that seem to be a good predictor emerge across different time scales (hence, motivation for the above "law"), but they're not equally important/active across all scales. EDIT: The previous paragraph would still be compatible with "TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same" I would argue: you could simply be missing one variable, say, something like "total volume necessary until pattern x becomes active/has a strong enough influence on the market". To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern.  That was the point I was trying to make. I believe "chartism"/TA is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but there is some self-fulfilling aspect to it, mainly in the form of the exact points of resistance/support. What I mean is: Some combination of signals tells traders "market is bearish, even though we're currently going up" (the non circular part of TA). Next question, where exactly to go short? "Hm, let's say DSMA50. Seems like a good place as any." After the first few sell at exactly that point, it becomes a "point of heavy resistance" (the circular part of TA). /my 2 crackpot cents  I am not a TA expert, but my take on TA is that in order to be successful it has to describe/utilize human valuation psychology (and the bugs and quirks therein). If that's the case, given that the human brain has a memory function, and thus has been 'trained' by prior price action, it makes sense that your price prediction signals could vary over time as well, no? I generally think of market price movements in terms of the madness and delusion of crowds, rather than the actions of lots of individuals. Does the mob have a memory? |
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Lets agree to disagree.  If there's just one good thing about the current market condition (slightly boring, slightly leaning upwards) it's that it's possible to have a civilized conversation in here  Oda, I would be keen to hear your current position and market expectations.. |
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As expected we drifted back up into 290's. Hopefully some more fiat will arrive at finex today to be lent out and bring down the swap interest rate.
Perhaps an attack on 300 again this week propelled by some good news.
DOI: In any case I just bought on circle again.
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1 - it's not my chart.
2 - my main point in posting it is that, if you are in the school of "the downtrends not over", then the upper bound of the channel in CNY terms is exactly what we have been bouncing off for the last few days of last week. There are a few in this thread that complain of chinese pied piper's no?
3 -If we play spot the pattern using this chart, assuming the downtrend is not over (which the chart demonstrates), shows that the RSI counts for something. To imagine there is anything like Nov 2013 on the horizon is a bit mental in my opinion.
4 - don't get upset if I question your position, it's not an attack, I just think players stand to gain a lot more by the downtrend not being over and I'm biased because I'm shorting.
1 - cool 2 - not sure why you are not defining the downtrend as being from the ATH and all subsequent lower highs. If we do so then it is already broken. But you are quite right the price may not be going up any time soon.. 3 - we can agree to disagree on this one 4 - Certainly not upset! I dont trade with leverage. When there are players stuffing 120,000,000 dollars into stealth startups, the majority of which work/own major silicon valley firms then I would suggest you are wrong . I think the price is heavily engineered or manipulated. But expecting the price to drop below 160 dollars from a high of 1200 seems a bit silly now. |
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good time to short.
Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right? already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago... Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell. Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make? Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target? I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it. and yes, you are right. you dont need coins to go short at all. I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash. You may get a chance to increase your short in the next few hours. Don't step too far away from your screen .. |
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good time to short.
Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right? already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago... Hey I thought you didn't trade with leverage!? Seriously tarmi next you will be saying you went long at 236 |
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Also it's Bitcoin ASICs get over it.
Source? Or just doing your usual trick of presenting opinion as fact? |
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Not sure what you are trying to show with your chart. If you are suggesting the RSI cannot support any moves higher I suggest you look at Nov 2013, it has already broken out according to your charting.. Edit: If we are playing spot the pattern then perhaps we are back in september 2013..  |
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1.3k coins to 290
3.8k coins to 280
There is no longer huge ask wall on stamp.
Just a matter of when we try to push upwards IMO..
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I am reminded of a quote..
“Compared to the breadth of knowledge yet to be known, what does your life actually matter?"
Depends on the frame of reference. To you, nothing. To other people, nothing. To me, everything. To be clear I wasn't referring to your grandfather. Instead finding the posts describing using the money for advancing science to be noble. |
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I just read that Australians have developed this cure for Alzheimer's with ultrasound that worked on 75% of lab rats. They're planning to do further experiments on bunnies or something, and possibly human clinical trials in 2017. IF bitcoin takes off then, and I have accumulated a good amount of it such that I will have a significant net worth, and IF this cure seems promising then, I'm willing to spend all of it to have my grandfather cured, if he is still curable at that time.  If not, especially if bitcoin takes off soon after, and my grandfather misses this cure by a short amount of time, I bet I'd feel guilty for the rest of my life. That said, if that happens, or if bitcoin takes off much later, or if it doesn't cost that much, I'd spend the rest of the money buying some property around the world and become a perpetual traveler, while trying out the top restaurants in the world one by one. Other than that, I agree with a guy above, I'd like to do some investments/donations to human life extension and other tech research. I strongly believe that donations to create technological abundance is more useful than donations to charity that gives food and clothes to homeless people, for example. It's like giving a man a fish vs teaching a man to fish. I am reminded of a quote.. “Compared to the breadth of knowledge yet to be known, what does your life actually matter?" |
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I would continue to work as i love my profession. Another house and a 50 foot yacht wouldn't hurt |
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Interesting how we see what we want to see in the charts, Silverspoon. I think we will attempt 290 today at some point. Oda I would be keen to hear your point of view regarding where you think the price will move in the next 9 months - and whether you are buying here. |
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as time goes by I am more and more convinced that the party is already over and that this was an epic bull trap.
What are you talking about tarmi? You haven't been bullish for months. |
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Asks melting away at 290..
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Bears just waiting for someone to sell. Long swaps at 0.1% interest is high, but that is only the last few days of swap total.
The order books look better matched than they have for weeks.
One big buy and the bearish sentiment will evaporate in a puff of smoke. Like most of the leveraged bears did the last month.
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Come on bitcoin do something!  |
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He "knows", but I'd say it's more realistic than his other dream, the balkanization of California.
Like you 'knew' in 2011? |
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