As a closet bull it pains me to sell at $5, but I look at deepbit's slow but steady shrinking hash rate and know I'll mine more at a lower price later.  Still waffling a bit, but the BTC is already at mtgox and will be gone before bedtime.

Seriously, longs & bulls need to man up and start pumping in more money.   Their current investment and ability to become bitcoin billionaires is at stake.  Let's see $6 by Tuesday!

For now.  If the trend (which looks strikingly like bitcoin price) continues it won't be long until this forum is less relevant than that unknown site.

Unless you immediately convert them to a more secure currency.  Shifting the risk to anyone willing to hold the less secure currency.

Which is why I don't mind leaping into every shitcoin pyramid to come along as long as I'm in early and there's an exchange.  I figure I have at least a week or two before anyone will bother attacking and so far I'm at 100% at beating the "pre mined" coins to the exit.

"Spare" cpu capacity still takes power (unless you're the botnet that just destroyed fairbrix and may or may not do the same to tenebrix).  He doesn't have to dump all 7 million -- so far with a week's worth of mining the community has generated less than 50k.  If he sells even 25% of what the rest of the miners generate he can still cash out pretty well without even impacting the "7 million."

Hence the posts to the speculation forum instead of keeping this in the alternative currencies forum until the "experimental" currency is ready for adoption.  The intent is to have greedy but ignorant investors provide more established, valuable currency ASAP.

Even if he makes $10k a week generating new shitcoin variants that's till a pretty good income for minor code changes and board spam.

I don't mind, it's free money to me.  But the "buy and hold" approach holds huge risks here.

That's Elliot waves for you.  Early on I noticed the rally/consolidate/flatline/drop cycle repeated over and over and over.  A long "stable" period at the same (or slightly decreasing) price makes me nervous.

The new algorithm is a good idea, but if you're trading (or otherwise supporting) this block chain you need to be aware that the founder "pre-mined" *3 years* worth of coins.  I'll let that sink in.  If you got in on day 1 you weren't an early adopter,  you were equivalent to some schmoe getting into bitcoin some time NEXT YEAR.  That's why the mining reward is 25 brix/block, because the founder took the first 3 years worth of coins for himself.

Priority one for all these scamchains is to get onto exchanges and be available for liquidation.  Even before mining pools.  Every chain this guy makes is listed on some exchange faster than you can say "wallet rape."

As long as the founder of this (same guy as geistgeld) keeps coughing up enough shitcoin variants at a rate of once per week he can make a good living from those not able to beat him to the exit.  For this one, with an exchange of .002 brix/btc he awarded himself 14,000 BTC (or at current prices, $60,000).  Not bad for a few days of work.

That's why the smart money in all the alt chains has their shitcoins for sale as soon as they're mined.  The tech is good, but IMO the future of this particular block chain is dubious.  I'm enjoying the bonus free ~BTC a day from this chain, of course.  No reason not to profit while it's still possible.

I typically sell on sunday nights and tuesday evenings.  Have been every week (except the time I missed one at $8) since $24.  Pains me to dump at $5, but it also pained me at 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13...  You get the picture.

I'll "buy back" (through mining of course) once I see a sustained up trend.

A quick bubble to 20 (or hell, even 15) would be awesome.  We'd see another immense growth in hash rate, and another slow crash.  I won't need too many cycles like that to turn my bitcoin pocket change into enough dollars to ... not be invested in bitcoin.

Exactly this.  There's absolutely no need for an Intel CPU running Windows to drive mining boards.  None whatsoever.   Some cheapie routers (like my WNR3500 which is drawing ~8 watts from the wall) even have a USB port in case mining devices getting work via USB show up.

Oh, and my midwest power rate?  4.6c/kwhr + distribution = ~6c/kwhr for residential.  No doubt that can be lower if I get commercial rates.  The only question is: will bitcoin be around and profitable enough to recoup a hardware investment?

My asks were too high, none of them got taken.   Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs like me get stuck with bitcoins instead of money.

How about this scenario.   There is ONE casino.  You can choose to play there or not at all.  Bitcoin revolves around what Magic Tux decides to do, not the other way around.

All the other tiny volume exchanges are simply shadows of MtGox.  What happens at the gox determines pricing on those exchanges.  And IMO the players in the bitcoin casino have had their money squeezed out of them very efficiently over the past few months.  If they all subscribed to your credo they'd all be gone by now.  Nobody admits to buying at 30, 20, 15, and even 10 -- and yet, that's where the highest volume of $ traded hands.

I believe it.  Complete flatline today with nothing but bot volume.  The market is prepped for a big "friday effect."  Any leadership, be it bull or bear, is going to get lots of followthrough. 

With deepbit hash rate is the lowest it's been in months I think general sentiment is finally starting to change from "greed" to "fear."  We might finally have the capitulation many of us have been expecting.  But just in case I've staggered sells to $8 in case someone decides to take the market up before crashing it down.

That's one of the problems of TA.  It's more of an art than a science.  Human judgement and "gut feel" is far more important than rigorous automation and documentation of the process.

If you look long enough at different types of charts you'll find anything you're looking for.  The key is being consistent, picking *multiple* indicators which work for you at the moment and going with your gut. 

And this part blows people's minds: it's just as key to know when your approach is no longer working so you can find a different one.

No, but they help you estimate whether such an event is likely.  And if so, in which direction.  Crazy guys follow herds same as everyone else, and TA is a way of getting a sense of which way the herd is migrating.

In other words, it won't help you predict when a kid that mined a few thousand coins in 2009 got a driver's license today and wants a car, but it should help you determine when a large portion of the current community has had enough and wants out.  Also when they've run out of coins or money.

Incorrect.  Money exists to provide a revenue stream to governments which issue the currency in the first place.  It'd be very hard to tax commerce without money.  So unlike bitcoin, yes, other currencies (or, more correctly, governments) DO have a business model.  At the moment the only way to fuel the bitcoin network is by fresh infusions of investor cash.

And I'm waiting for a chain based on a memory-intensive as opposed to computation expensive verification mechanism.  That'll open bitcoin up to a much larger audience.  Until you have tried bitcoin (including mining) it's hard to appreciate why it has value.  And right now the barrier to joining the club is pretty high.

Bonus points for any solution designed for a longer separation from "early adopters" from "late adopters."  Six months separating the haves from the have nots IMO is one of the reasons normal people (including myself) see the current bitcoin chain as simply a pyramid with the only way for a latecomer to win is to cash out earlier than the others.

Yup, the rare triple bottom happens when buy side interest outweighs the sellers -- you have increasing volume as well as break through resistance.  In other words, if you really do have a reversal it's quite likely to be real and the start of a lengthy up trend.

What is far LESS rare in a down trending stock is failure to break out to the upside and instead breaking through support.  In which case that's simply an unconfirmed double bottom reversal pattern and you try again later.

You don't have to go far to see this in bitcoin.  Bring up the 6 month non-log chart.  You can easily see a double bottom with the first dip start of July, second dip mid July, third dip in August which was not confirmed by an upside breakout but instead by smashing of support.  Try to find triple bottom patterns on stocks you watch.  For every one you find I will easily find five unconfirmed double bottoms.

As proof I submit this is exactly why experienced technicians do not advise buying near support levels on an unconfirmed double bottom reversal.  It's risky until you know it's really *IS* a reversal pattern.   The same goes double for triple bottoms.

Triple bottoms are very rare.  Far more often you break through the support and try again lower.

Easy, you switch your strategy from trading direction to trading volatility.   We have a MASSIVE pennant hanging on the multi-month bitcoin chart, if this were a real, optionable stock I'd be looking into long straddle positions.

Unfortunately I can't do that with bitcoin, so I'll be sitting on the sidelines with my popcorn.  I have my suspicions which way the direction is going to move but I want them confirmed before I do anything.

Since I'm mostly a trader it doesn't matter to me if I miss a $10 one day rise (or $2 one day drop), I'm in this for the price movement.  It would be nice if we went bull rather than bear (my trading is hedged by mining), but I for one am more than fine either way.

And with less dollars on the line there's less motivation for attack.  One of the many reasons the various shitcoins (aside from their lack of merits) are problematic is they're very vulnerable to a double spend attack from any bitcoin pool that decides to squash them.  If a promising new alternative to the current bitcoin chain does come along it'll also be likewise vulnerable from people with a vested interest in the current chain.