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2401  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: November 28, 2014, 11:22:35 PM
This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November
What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?
It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.
I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?

We don't know really, we are just guessing, based on the observation that the recent buys are much larger than usual, they come after a period of stagnation, they started with no obvious external cause,  they are almost the same size in USD (but less so in BTC), and the size in USD is a round number (2.5  M$), within the errors of the estimates.

If there were many clients buying shares, why would they all start buying at the same time, considering that the price does not give any clear signs of recovery?  Why would their buys add up to ~2.5 M$ every week, four weeks in a row?

It is of course possible that there are no clients buying shares, and SMBIT just decided to but BTC anyway, using their dollar reserves.

Here is another wild theory: the SEC found that they were doing something wrong, ordered them to suspend selling and liquidating shares, and required a change in their procedures -- that forced them to buy a lot more BTC than they had bought so far.  So they are buying as far as they can, that being 2.5 M$ every week.  (Yeah, it is total fantasy; but since SMBIT is so opaque, they can't complain if people start making wild theories...)

Have you heard the words slander and libel Stolfi?
2402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Black friday was a JOKE! on: November 28, 2014, 11:19:17 PM
22m volume
haha

Welcome to the forum alt-troll. Now fuck off wherever you came from.
2403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 11:18:06 PM
There was talk about OKCoin taking on some major hedge fund trades -- supposedly something like $3 billion. However, it turned out that, although they were using OKCoin's platform, they weren't looking to trade in Bitcoins.

Yeah, JorgeStolfi has confirmed this several times.

Not quite... I just pointed out that the fatal sentence could also be interpreted as "the fund will use our software and/or servers", rather than "the fund will trade bitcoin at our exchange".  

However, since there was no further confirmation of the "will trade bitcoin" interpretation, and the price collapsed right away, I think that the alternative interpretation is now quite likely.

Not very scientific of you stolfi. Unless you have actual evidence to suggest that this 3bn hedge fund is not going to use bitcoin on OKCOIN then well done on becoming an out and out FUD'er.
2404  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 08:25:40 PM
Up up and away?
2405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 28, 2014, 08:18:31 PM
So is this the bullion banks smashing the price prior to the swiss vote?
2406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: November 28, 2014, 08:09:56 PM
Nagle,

Quite strange you chose those start and end dates. Are you expecting USD transaction volume to be higher at the end of a prolonged bear market than it was at the previous manic top? Ridiculous.

Why not view the all time log chart for a better picture of transaction volume (easy to do just click the options at the bottom).

It shows a clear steady up trend.
2407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 08:02:45 PM
I wasn't always as risk averse (can i say that on a bitcoin forum lol).

Regarding leverage, I distinctly remember watching my igmarkets trading account about to be margin called with a mixture of gold and silver contracts suddenly very heavily underwater during a crash a few years ago. I had been trading with 'mental stops' haha due to the volatility. My palms were sweaty and I realised that I was about to lose half a years income. Quite a surreal moment being liquidated.

Stocks, bonds, even a bank account seemed pretty good at that moment. No one thinks they will get caught out. But almost everyone does with a volatile market in the end Smiley
2408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 07:27:32 PM
It is getting might tempting to unignore you lamb chop Smiley

MUST RESIST!
2409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 07:23:15 PM
Oh and I speculate in bitcoin by holding it. I occasionally dip my toes in at extreme prices and gamble trade. Note that speculation != trading.
Yes, it is. Speculation is nothing but the anticipation of future prices. All speculators are traders, and all traders are speculators.

Quite right. Missed the word alone there Smiley
2410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 07:14:29 PM
You're right... upper 200s. Have fun losing your money, jack---. See, I can be a hostile a--hole, too. By the way, why are all of the hodlers always in the speculation section b----ing about traders. Do they not know how to read? Is the world speculation merely beyond their vocabulary. One amongst many mysteries.

We get it you are underwater.

Oh and I speculate in bitcoin by holding it. I occasionally dip my toes in at extreme prices and gamble trade. Note that speculation != trading.
2411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 05:29:09 PM
Haters are quiet for a few hours




Yea, no. This s--- is going to fall like a 500 foot lead dildo.
How much money have you lost the past weeks?

About 2% of my base. And you? Likely more? If not more, probably will be more soon. You don't always get it right and I certainly got blindsided on that crazy run up to the $450 range on confusion about a hedge fund doing trading through OKCoin. But, yea, the retailers are going to dump -- and you all know it, too. The price will get a spike probably throughout the day as some people will buy fresh coins to take advantage of discounts, but if I was a hodler I wouldn't feel too comfortable right now because the retailers are required to convert to fiat. I mean, it's not even malicious or uncertain -- it's just a fact.

You do understand that bitpay and coinbase are unlikely to dump their coins on the market right?
2412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 05:24:54 PM
I think he was asking newbie on account of his hostility to this rise. Which can mean only one thing Smiley
2413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 05:14:53 PM
A bit of positivity never hurt anyone.. Grin
2414  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2014, 04:58:54 PM
Paging lambchop?  Roll Eyes
2415  Economy / Speculation / Re: 13,500,000 coins passed on: November 28, 2014, 04:45:33 PM
Someone please explain how this is even possible?? This system is not sustainable... Many big people in bitcoin know this & are pulling out. Good luck to you all!

Who?
2416  Economy / Speculation / Re: We made it, boys and girls. on: November 28, 2014, 04:43:52 PM
Shocked Wow I didn't think I'd see something like this for at least another few years. Amazing that one of the big player fiat banks understands Bitcoin.

I think it is fair to say they all understand bitcoin very well indeed. They are likely either deciding to accumulate or begin mining operations or working on a plan to shut it down.
2417  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: November 28, 2014, 04:41:25 PM
yesterday bought 2100+ (11/25/2014)
today bought 4500+ (11/26/2014)
two day together, another ~ $2.5 M was added.

updated. This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

Nice  Cool 4th week in a row!!

Yeah this is a very good indicator of true interest. And meanwhile Bitcoins on exchanges get cheaper, man these markets are inefficient.

Just wait Smiley
2418  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the winklevoss ETF failed on: November 28, 2014, 04:38:36 PM
Continue to predict I have no coins & I am coming on here just to troll... That might be something you would do but my real life money is in this digital bitcoin game & I am going to do my due diligence. People with real opinions & information can chime in... Inca, you should probably go find a permabull thread. I think I just saw one about the moon in 2015, enjoy!  Cheesy

Ooh moon! Smiley
2419  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the winklevoss ETF failed on: November 28, 2014, 04:04:51 PM
This is why me & many more with large sums of money in bitcoin are pulling out.

Your own username is 'fewcoins'.

It seems pretty unlikely that you a) have any real wealth, b) have 'large' sums in bitcoin or c) are pulling anything out.

You come across as a young dumb kid hoping to push the price down on a day you think might result in a few more coins than normal hitting exchanges (black friday).

Edit: Reddit might be a better crowd for your age group

LMFAO Hilarious! Another basher instead of reading up on facts... I am far from a young kid but okay enjoy your bashing and loosing all your money.
I started with a few coins & I mine more everyday. You have no idea about what I own but continue to guess! You are really doing good smh.
You're probably another salty bag holder that's been buying from the willy bot since 1,200 & you're mad we will never ever see that price again until a pack of gum is $5
I have already pulled out of bitcoin. I WILL GO FULL LEVERAGE INTO SHORTING after the next pop. Just like I have done at every huge pop. Enjoy getting burned buying on the way down.

Anyone with any real helpful opinions, knowledge, or facts???

You joined this forum two months ago, that is if you aren't a troll alt. If you don't own any coins then you have no influence on the market price except posting troll crap like this on a potentially price sensitive day. I don't think there is anything more to you than that to be honest.

It is dangerous to judge people based on the quality of their prose, but I wish you the best of luck when you 'GO FULL LEVERAGE' matey, you are surely going to need it.

Edit: see posts by Matthecat for an education in bitcoin trading 101
2420  Economy / Speculation / Re: Xiaoxiao's trading/forecast blog on: November 28, 2014, 03:58:12 PM
Still shorting @ around 385 from few weeks ago.

Prospect of next month: horizantal.  range $350-$450. 

It must suck to be trading with less than ten btc when you had the opportunity to just buy and hold in 2011 but didn't because you thought you could get rich quick.

That might account for your constant bearish "analysis", yes?


No, I have not constantly been bearish.  I have been bearish at precisely the right times.

Yet you have failed to capitalise meaningfully in anyway whatsoever on potentially the greatest bull run in financial history. You think people are interested in reading your forecast ideas or trading setups with that recent performance?

Worse you continue to post predictions here and even attempt to manipulate the price to unsuspecting newbie readers - who can forget your "final final final final warnings!!this time is really the last one!!" in recent months. Or your, what was it, 70% likelihood of bitcoin reaching 50 dollars imminently or some such nonsense.

There are good traders on this forum, people with excellent TA that even simple speculators like me enjoy reading and occasionally using. Some are even bears! But you add nothing useful or of any value whatsoever to this forum. You must be good at something in life. Do us all a favour and do that instead of posting this crap.
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