Yeah.. more or less floating around the 200-week average price.

Who would-a-thunk? 

And what does the 200-week moving average mean?


Anyone?


Anyone?










 


It's a trick question.


I write long posts because I feel that I don't have enough time to write shorter posts.



Go figure.


It's good to know someone who is famous - even though it seems that we knew you (kind of) back when you were a "no body."  #nohomo


hahahahahahaha


People seem to be buying it... but at least you are letting us know.


The fact that the government cannot really control bitcoin in total does not prevent them to proclaim that they are controlling it, even if they aren't.

You do not have to buy a whole bitcoin.  You can buy 1 satoshi... so bitcoin is not necessarily going to become too expensive to buy, even though people who got in earlier are going to have advantages in terms of how much their BTC cost as compared with people who are buying later.. so that is merely one of the advantages of acting earlier rather than waiting around and seeing what happens.


We are not talking about trading in this thread, and the overwhelming majority (maybe even more than 80% of people) do not even need to try to trade bitcoin.  They are likely going to be much better off to employ various strategies that mostly focus on ways to buy BTC, even if they employ a variety of means of buying BTC that involves DCA, buying on dip, lump sum buying and even HODLing from time to time when they run out of money to buy. 

Anyone who is knew to bitcoin or even several years into bitcoin and who are largely accumulating bitcoin should not be considering selling bitcoin as a means to either accumulate bitcoin or to be using selling as a means to attempt to buy more bitcoin. It is not a good accumulation strategy for more than 80% of people.

Hopefully anyone who is a member of this forum and is ONLY making minimum wage in a place like Bangladesh and/or any other country with similar kinds of low level wages, these people should be working towards increasing their wages rather than merely making minimum wage... and so maybe they should still be figuring out ways to make more and to be able to put that extra money into bitcoin.. . and surely make sure that their monthly expenses are covered so that they do not ever have to sell any of their bitcoin, except at a time that is of their own choosing, and surely many of us even realize that it could take many many years to reach a stack of bitcoin that feels sizable if you are ONLY able to invest $10 per week, which would be $520 per year, which would be $5,200 over 10 years, and so maybe 10-20 years of investing into bitcoin, even with a low amount will start to feel like it is providing a lot of options that had not been available without any kind of investment into bitcoin.

Another potential problem area with poor people is to make sure that they are able to hold their bitcoin privately, so it they are not initially holding their BTC privately, maybe every once in a while, even once a year, their bitcoin value can be transferred to private locations.. and surely they have to figure out their best ways of storing their private keys.. even if they might not initially start out holding their own keys until maybe after they have built up their BTC stash to a high enough level that it would be worth it to transfer to a private wallet (accounting for sometimes transferring fees can sometimes be a bit higher than would be justified to transfer smaller amounts of bitcoin - depending on where it is held and what are the fee options for that particular location).

Of course, positive results are not guaranteed for any way of investing, even with something like bitcoin that seems to be amongst the best of asymmetric bets to the upside that is currently available, if not the best.  At the same time, there are going to be needs to make sure that you do not overinvest in such ways that you do not have enough money to cover your cashflows, and the cashflows of businesses tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of individuals and also the cashflows of married with familities will tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of single individuals.  Even though cashflows might be more complicated, that does not necessarily mean that abilities to invest into bitcoin would be more complicated because sometimes complicated cashflows might create more discretionary income, so then more options regarding how to allocate funds (just like governments might have more options than businesses, but they still likely have to manage their finances well, otherwise they might end up screwing up their own finances because they did not adequately account for their expenses when they chose to invest into bitcoin).

No problem..  except that satoshi is not in charge of bitcoin...

and therefore, you engaged in a more proper use of the "appeal to authority" fallacy.


That hardly makes any sense to me that a satoshi would have to be worth a dollar or near a dollar in order for it to be worth it to recognize further digits.  You can keep repeating it, but it makes hardly any sense.

I doubt that any hardfork is necessary to recognize digits smaller than a satoshi.. but still like others said it might not be justifiable without a certain value.. I doubt that it a dollar and I even doubt that is a penny.. so even 1/1000 of a penny might be justifiable to recognize such further down digits.. but hey, I am just one person.  What do I know regarding what people want to do today as compared to what they might want to do in 2048 or times approaching 2048 when it might be considered if more than 8 digits might be justified to recognize on bitcoin's main chain.


That's the spirit!!!!!  Even though I know that he can be annoying sometimes, especially when he starts spreading misinformation.. but hey, we cannot necessarily pre-judge what he might say... even though surely requesting Maxwell or Chow seems probably better to the extent that they might have opinions on this topic or even consider the topic to be of enough importance to chime in.

You sound a bit lost with your intermingling shitcoins into your discussion.

Maybe you want to reframe your question and try to focus on bitcoin, especially since this thread is about bitcoin.

Bitcoin is likely pretty close to inevitably going to continue to be volatile in the next 30 years, but surely if bitcoin's market cap continues to increase it will likely become less volatile with the passage of time.. but as you seem to hint 30 years is a long way to project out, so it does not have very much to do with the topic of this thread except maybe to the extent that your buying BTC (and even loading up on BTC) right now will give you a lot more options 20-30-40 years into the future, so maybe even slow accumulation now and in the next 4-10 years will then result in such BTC accumulating person to have a lot more options when it comes to 30 years down the road.. so long as s/he had not ended up losing the BTC along the way.. so one thing is accumulating BTC but another thing is actually making sure taht they are secure and periodically checking security and keeping up with the better ways to hold your BTC... whether that is going to change or not in the next 30 years seems to also be something that is hard to predict but seems likely since we are ONLY 14 years into bitcoin, as you mentioned.

How the fuck do they know what is the meaning of the question?

I did see the word bitcoin one time in the article.. so there might be some relation of this topic to king daddy.

Perhaps?

Perhaps?



I am not going to claim to know much of anything. What else is new?

I do have quite a bit more cash than I would usually have from my June 2023 Binance incident that I bought back quite a bit in like three batches.. one batch was almost immediately when the BTC price went up from $28k to $140k-ish and then dropped back down to $29k-ish, and the second batch was some extra buy orders that I placed between $30k and $26k. .which surely all ended up getting filled, and I did not even have any kind of certainty that they would get filled, but they did, and the rest is just adding to my pre-existing buy orders that had already been set down to $13k-ish.. so I feel good having that extra cash, and surely hoping that I don't have to use it.. but it is there, just in case, otherwise it will likely end up just getting spent at various times in the coming year or so.. whether HLB or other more practical (or not) things.. not thinking of any investments at this time.. but you never know if something might come up that just requires some additional cash.. so I could draw some from those orders going down to $13k.. and really I have some trouble thinking that even sub $22k would be reached.. and we would have to break the don't wake me up zone first.. and sure those kinds of things do sometimes happen right before the more UPpity break ends up happening. .which is kind of the covid/mindrust situation (which was more extreme than usual)..


Oh my...



I am being stalked.

You are not really saying anything meaningful DapanasFruit - except that you are dumb.

Both for equating this thread with crypto.. when many of us are neither talking about crypto or give any shits about shitcoins.. .. even though sure, they might have some value that could be passed down.

So yeah, no problem with you selling your various shitcoins.. but in terms of bitcoin we are likely in buying season rather than selling season.. so anyone who knows anything about bitcoin should at least try to have a few, and most likely it takes a while to build a stack, so if you are a low coiner and/or a low coiner right now, you probably should be thinking about getting some BTC.

And surely some people might take several years to build up their BTC holdings to a meaningful amount because so many people might not be in a position to really lump sum invest into bitcoin, so it could take years to really get to a meaningful place in terms of your BTC stash.. .. and also time in the market tends to be a better thing to shoot for rather than timing the market, even though at this time, it would be better to have had spent a few years stacking sats rather than lump summing in, even though you likely could buy the same number of coins as the person who spent 3 years stacking sats for around the same average price as they got.. which also makes it seem like a decent time to lump sum buy into bitcoin if you were to have lump sums.. but yeah, everyone needs to make those kinds of choices, which is part of the reason it becomes way easier to build your BTC stash over several years and to show some conviction and maybe not even much if any concerns about BTC price volatility, as compared to someone who might lump sum in with the same amount of money that someone of similar economic stature spent three years buying  BTC on a weekly -ish basis.

You make some good points that there might be some other features that are touted to be better than bitcoin, but sometimes the extent to which those features might be touted as better is not so obvious, and many times in technology, if you want to displace an incumbent (which would be bitcoin in this case), then you need to be clearly and unambiguously 10x better than the incumbent, and I doubt you would argue that Monero, Ethereum or any other shitcoin is actually 10x better than bitcoin... so it has to be that level of clarity (in the ballpark of 10x) in terms of how much it is better... otherwise the incumbent is going to continue to build and gravitate value and to grown market share greater than all of the rest, in terms of the seven network effects outlined by Trace Mayer.

And just a little side note in regards to that piece of crap, ethereum that you mentioned, there really is no clarity about how many coins were premined.. so a pretty big gap in the supply, and POS is really dumb in compared with Bitcoin's POW innovation that really brings it a lot of strength in terms of sound money that really cannot be fucked with.


It sounds as if you do not know about bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not a coin just like other coins merely because it has "coin" in its name.

Shitcoiners likely to make such dumb assertions that bitcoin is just the same as other coins, and then that way the shitcoiners can pump their shit and mislead you into thinking that you need to diversify your portfolio into shitcoins... which surely is an ill-informed approach, especially known more by those who actually come to learn bitcoin better, whether they end up going through a shitcoin phase first or not...

Going through a shitcoin phase is not a prerequisite in order to learn about bitcoin, even though a lot of folks do got through some kind of shitcoin phase before they figure out that bitcoin is different.. and that bitcoin is the one that should be learned first in order to lessen the likelihood of getting sucked into bullshit and distracting pump and dump nonsense that is part and parcel of the shitcoin scene.


Bitcoin is more than just market sentiment.  You might want to study a bit into what bitcoin is before you try to summarize bitcoin as being market sentiment, even though there surely is some market sentiment, but you are not going to be a very good investor into bitcoin if you are using market sentiment to guide the way that you invest into bitcoin.  If you follow market sentiment, you are likely going to end up getting reckt and not having hardly any (if any) grounding in terms of actual bitcoin knowledge.


Through your own words, you have already shown that you don't really seem to know much if anything about bitcoin.


Sure, you can trade and fuck around with shitcoins, but it is not a good idea to be trading and fucking around with bitcoin, unless you want to get reckt.

With bitcoin you should just be figuring out ways to ongoingly accumulate it and also to make sure that you figure out ways to secure your stash.. as you might be attempting to reach target levels of accumulation.. which could take 4-10 years or more to reach depending upon from where you might be starting and if you are able to lump sum into bitcoin versus more common ways of dollar cost averaging and buying on dips.


Fuck traders.  That is a specialty field.  Not very many traders actually make money, and it is not very smart to just jump into trading if you think that you want to make money, unless you learn that kind of a specialty, and you surely do not need to learn how to trade in order to figure out how to accumulate bitcoin and to invest into bitcoin... unless you are just trying to lose money, entertain yourself and/or gamble, which might be all fun and games until you might spend several years of your life fucking around with that kind of fun and thinking that you are going to get rich when in fact you end up making no progress or getting anywhere and when you should have had been taking a more prudent and practical approach, especially when it comes to bitcoin .. which is likely one of the best (if not the best) investment assets that have ever come available.. and hopefully you are not so dumb as to waste a good opportunity by getting overly greedy and failing/refusing to take a more practical approach with such a great asymmetric bet to the upside (namely bitcoin).

I am ONLY talking about bitcoin.  Fuck shitcoins and the vague and non-specific idea of cryptocurrencies.. whatever that is supposed to mean.

If you do not make it clear that you are talking about bitcoin, then some people are going to think that you are talking about shitcoins, especially if you are mixing up your terms and making vague references to cryptocurriencies, in which an overwhelming majority (if not all of them) are either scams at worse or just deserve a presumption of being a scam, at best.

In other words, presume all projects that have its own coin/token that is not bitcoin to be a scam.... there might be some limited reasons to invest (or gamble with shitcoins), but hopefully it is less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings that you would use to fuck around with any shitcoin.


That's true... even people who are in bitcoin might not really understand what bitcoin is, and surely shitcoiners are people involved in shitcoins/cryptocurrencies and those who use vague descriptions, such as "crypto" or "cryptocurrency" likely to not understand bitcoin enough in order to be more clear in their chosen language...and their chosen ways to make sure that they are being clear about bitcoin as compared to any reference(s) that they might want to make to shitcoins, if it is even relevant to the at-the-time discussion.


It does not hurt to talk about bitcoin from time to time and even mention it from time to time, even if many people who might be friends or relatives might not be interested in terms of hearing about bitcoin.. but sometimes, it might be helpful to mention bitcoin from time to time when it is relevant and even maybe saying.. bitcoin fixes this.. from time to time, as long as you are able to back up what you are saying in the even that they might ask any questions.


You may be caught up in Keynsian propagandistic ways of thinking in terms of believing that the money has to circulate in order to have value, but the fact of the matter is that Gresham's law is going to apply whether normies realize that they are doing it or not..... so people are going to tend to spend their least valuable money/assets prior to their more valuable assets/money, but it does not mean that they are not going to spend their bitcoin, especially if they have run out of other assets/money to spend and they need to eat or they need lodging or they want to have a new Iphone 15.

There are likely always going to be some people providing liquidity to the market, even if there might ONLY be 500k bitcoin circulating and 20.5 million in cold storage.... whatever circulating may well have to circulate a lot more... until the price goes up enough for the HODLers to decide to use it.. and yeah you are suggesting that there needs  to be incentives for sellers to even build infrastructure in order that someone will be able to sell their bitcoin in the event that they are wanting to sell their bitcoin.. ,so it won't do them any good if no one accepts bitcoin.. or there are no places to sell their bitcoin.


You make no sense Hewlet.

You seem to be talking about some kind of a shitcoin rather than bitcoin.

Sure you can hypothesize about extreme scenarios in which no one would want bitcoin and therefore the BTC price will go down, so even if what you are speculating about is possible it is not too likely to be the case, so why blabber out such nonsense as if bitcoin were some kind of a shitcoin when it is not.

Mostly likely you are typing such nonsense because you hardly have any clue in regards to what bitcoin is... so good luck with that.   Hopefully,  you bought some BTC just in case you are wrong about your fears of bitcoin's hypothesized downward spiral.

Someone is missing franky.   


I thought that we were talking about various ways that tail emission might be achieved and/or justified.. or justifiable as potentially something that might be a good thing... It may not matter that much what lightning network does as long as it is not incompatible with the main chain in terms of how many BTC had been recognized.. but sure, we might say, that we do not need more than 8 digits if we can transact on the lightning network for smaller units, but that still does not seem to address the 2048 issue in which mining rewards will go down to 9 digits, and so should that value smaller than 8 digits be recognized or ignored?


You are using the expression "appeal to authority" with a kind of literalness that seems to devolve into nuances of incorrect usage, and sure no problem that we might want to have (invite) some forum members who better "know technical things" to chime in on this particular topic.. someone other than your good buddy, franky..


No.  You are the only one in the whole world who is confused.

Sorry to mention it.

Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...

In my investment ideas thread, on December 16, 2021, I had already made a post in which I gave odds of about 0.5%  that BTC would be more than $1.5 million in the last cycle.. which, as we know, did not end up happening... but I had already accounted for those kinds of supra $1 million prices as being possible in the last cycle.

And, I assigned $800k or above as having 2.5% odds...

So of course I admit that I hardly have any clue about where the BTC price is going to go, but if anyone is trying to predict both a date and a price, then they likely need to place it in terms of probabilities, and so sometimes, people will give a "base case" which they believe to be the most likely outcome, but even a base case might have the strongest odds, but it still might be only 30% or 40%, even though it is the base case and the scenario with the highest of odds in comparison to other possibilities still might have less than 50% odds.

Of course, most normal people do not either speak in terms of probabilities and even if they were to do that many people still would not even hear them in terms of what they had just said because people like to hear what is going to happen and what is predicted to happen, even though it may not even have high odds of happening.

Sure, there are people who actually believe their own predictions or they believe that various events provide a high level of likelihood or certainty to what they are predicting and people seem to prefer when people speak with conviction and confidence in regards to predictions. .especially if someone is holding themselves out as an expert or engaged in an interview... which the subject of price and predictions frequently comes up because people like to hear about those kinds of topics.


You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge (or the appearance of being in charge).  I doubt that the government has as much control over the bitcoin price as you are making them out to be able to have in terms of their likely lame responses. and various problems that they have created for themselves over many decades.  It's not like they can fix the problem that they even put themselves into without somehow teaming up with bitcoin rather than fighting it.. but hey, they likely are going to have various battles and hopefully not too many of us bitcoin HODLers and/or activists end up becoming casualties of whatever bullshit hostilities that they choose to direct towards bitcoin.

I am not even anti-government, but I still can appreciate that dumb policies sometimes will come out from folks who do not really understand and when there are various kinds of desperation in society and in various governmental, societal and business systems that largely revolve around various historical abuses of fiat money systems... and yeah a CBDC would likely be another form of abuse, but not even necessarily working in their favor since bitcoin is already hear as a life boat and they might end up incentivizing more and more people to get on the bitcoin life boat if they take too draconian of measures... but yeah we will see.. I am not necessarily disagreeing that various CBDCs are going to be tried to attempt to rescue various sinking ships, but its not likely to even be close enough to either save them or that there is not even any strong evidence that bitcoin will end up being hindered (rather than accelerated by some of their possible draconian efforts which is likely going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction even if more world emergencies also are implemented. shutting down of the internet, aliens, more viruses, etc.

Arthur Hayes is a pretty smart guy, if you ever heard him speak, and if you ever read any of his stuff.

Sure you do not need to agree with everything he says or his predictions in order to learn a lot from him.

There are a lot of people who I don't agree with, and they likely are not lying merely when they are wrong or they assign higher probabilities to events.. and surely there sometimes could be some hidden agendas too..


And just think about it.. bitcoin is about 1,000x better than gold, and regarding copper, it may well have more utility value than gold.. even though gold does have some utility value..so it won't be going to zero, and it may well retain a bit of its monetary value while bitcoin is eating its lunch and reaching fair market value that is 1,000x more valuable than gold.. or maybe even more than that.. but could take 20-50 years to play out or maybe even 150 to 200 years to play out.

Don't blame me if you end up screwing it up.

because I have split mine into three, but I have several places that I have put them in terms of having more than one copy of the threes, so that if the house burns down there is a back up.. so you might have a more than one set of three that are in 2 or 3 locations.. .. so that if you lose any one part, you are not screwed.

 I know it is a lot of work, but you don't want to lose one of the three parts and then you are totally fucked because you don't have enough information to get at the keys. 

For sure there are a few ways to screw things up by providing too much information, by not providing enough information and then also by having your keys vulnerable.. and no one knows if their house is going to burn down (for example), but if all of the keys are in the house that burns down, or even if ONLY one of the three parts of the keys is in the house that burns down, then hopefully you have a back-up of that lost key somewhere (that did not simultaneously burn down) in order to still be able to get access to your coins.

You gotta be careful trying to spend too much time trying to persuade others to buy bitcoin when they do not understand and/or appreciate bitcoin's investment case irrespective of what you are doing yourself and what you are telling them.  In their minds, they believe that you are the crazy one.

I frequently tell people that everyone should get at least a little bit of bitcoin and even start out with a small amount, and even if I know them well enough to know that they could easily afford $100 per week, I will tell them that $10 per week is better than nothing, even though they should be spending $100 per week.. but whatever, they have to do what they want or what they believe is right for their own situation.  And, sometimes, I will also suggest that even though it is good to get started with some kind of bitcoin buying routine and even to commit to 4-10 years, I don't really give any shits about what they do .. it is their choice.  I will tell them that they probably will end up buying bitcoin later, but it is likely going to be at a higher price.. but whatever, at this time they believe that it is not going to help them, even though it is a great hedge against a lot of the injustices in the world in regards to the governmental abuses of power in connection to the money printer and the ongoing degrading of the money, which they cannot do to bitcoin and bitcoin will benefit from the government's ongoing desperation to print money and their irresponsibility.. and bitcoin does not do those kinds of things.

You can also ask them questions about their own investments, but also that might not help and frequently people do not like to talk too much about their financial details, but sometimes if you can frame the question in delicate ways in which you are not necessarily asking specifics, then at least you might have some ideas about what they invest into, if anything.. or if they are just struggling and they hardly have any extra cashflow, even if they do seem to go on elaborate vacations a couple times a year... and of course, those are choices that people make.. in regards to how much they are spending and if they could end up saving/investing more than they do.


I still believe that you are underestimating bitcoin's power, and bitcoin already reached more than $1 trillion market cap last cycle, which was around $55k.. so if bitcoin gets to around $280k, then it will be a $5 trillion market cap.. and about 1/2 of gold's market cap.. so many folks already know that bitcoin is better than gold and the fact of the matter is that bitcoin is likely 1,000x or more better than gold, but I doubt that gold is going to completely lose its market cap, so there could be a variety of ways that bitcoin reaches some of its fair market value by getting to be 1,000x the price (market cap) of gold, yet it could happen in 20-50 years or maybe it will take longer, even 150-200 years to get to that kind of relative pricing.

Anyhow back to my assertion that bitcoin is not a mature asset class or a mature value, and in that regard, you are underestimating bitcoin if you are merely considering that it will go up 10x from here and then stabilize, when ONLY about 1% of the world's population is actually invested into bitcoin at this time, and perhaps even those who are invested into bitcoin do not even realize the extent to which they are underinvested into bitcoin, so bitcoin is still a very immature market and there are still a lot more people to come into bitcoin, and network effects and even metacalfe principles are going to continue to justify that BTC values (and prices) continue to go up exponentially with the playing out of those kinds of networking effects and metacalfe principles.

Well yeah.. you can just keep plugging away, so each person is going to have differing goals.. and so maybe since you have been in bitcoin longer, you might have had been able to accumulate more bitcoin than some others who are brand new to bitcoin, and some guys might consider that they would like to get to 2 BTC in the next 10 years.. and so along the way they might have several targets, such as first reaching 1 million satoshis.. then reaching 21 million, then reaching 50 million.. and then 1 BTC.. and then 1.5 BTC and etc, etc. etc...

so like you mentioned, there could be times in your life where you end up getting some extra cash come your way.. such as $2k that you did not expect, and maybe you decide you are going to use $1,200 to buy bitcoin and then you have some other personal plans for the other $800.. but your level of aggressiveness and consistency can pay off, and if you clearly consider yourself in an accumulation phase, then you should not be wanting to engage in behaviors that might be screwing up your plan.. but you also don't want to act so aggressively that you have not adequately planned various expenses in your life.

Another thing with bitcoin price dynamics, the longer that you are in bitcoin, and if you are able to exercise prudent and reasonable practices, then you can surely engage in practices of buying on the dip or even shaving off a little bit of bitcoin at various points in which the BTC price rips UPwardly a lot.. and sure the BTC price might not correct back down, but if you figure out how to sell small amounts of BTC, then you should not necessarily be concerned if you ended up being correct or not about anticipating a correction.. and surely it is not easy to get ahead of the BTC price and that is frequently why some guys will refuse to sell any BTC at all while they are in their accumulation phase until they get to a certain level of profits and also a certain level of accumulation... so sometimes any sales of BTC will end up falling into a category of spend and replace within a fairly short period of time.

Surely I am not going to claim to know if the satoshi might start to have enough of a value that it would be better to continue to recognize further subdivisions of it by the time that the mining reward splits in half down to such an amount that more digits become relevant.  2048 is quite a ways off, but I could imagine sats having a decent amount of value by 2048, even though surely we cannot have a lot of confidence until maybe we start to get closer to such date, and maybe there would become a kind of sense of necessity to be able to recognize value beyond 8 digits, especially if the accuracy of the mining reward might seem to justify it..

You are not going to get away with trying to point fingers to peeps who are even more whimpy, if such a thing is even possible.

I started out in my response to your post by looking at the bolded part, and I did not see anything controversial with that statement and/or any disagreement between us..

so maybe we are not clear about what each of us is saying.

I had largely been attempting to say that the longer that you invest in bitcoin, then the more likely that your BTC holdings are going to be in profits in terms of their dollar value, and maybe your BTC holdings would go up and maybe they wouldn't depending on if you continue to buy bitcoin after your initial purchases... . but the mere fact of buying and holding bitcoin for a long time is likely to put you into profits, especially if that is all that you do with your bitcoin.. as contrasted with trying to trade them.

So I was largely just elaborating on the expression "time in the market is better than timing the market."

I don't mind if you disagree with me. 

We have more interesting discussions if people do not necessarily agree and if they are trying to make points that they really believe to be true.. so which part of what I said is disagreeable?

I know that mistakes can be made.. so if someone buys BTC and tries to secure BTC for the long run and they are in bitcoin for several years, maybe even a couple of cycles, so they have a lot of money, maybe even 20x profits, but if such longer term BTC HODLer/accumulator person does not know what they are doing, then they may not end up making any money from their having had been in BTC because they screwed up their ways of securing their bitcoin.. is that where you are disagreeing with me? or something else? 

Another thing could be that past results does not guarantee future results, so I know that, even though I did not say it.. but frequently we cannot necessarily say all things inside of each post, even though from time to time, I try.