Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[SamReomo]

Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...

In my investment ideas thread, on December 16, 2021, I had already made a post in which I gave odds of about 0.5%  that BTC would be more than $1.5 million in the last cycle.. which, as we know, did not end up happening... but I had already accounted for those kinds of supra $1 million prices as being possible in the last cycle.

And, I assigned $800k or above as having 2.5% odds...

So of course I admit that I hardly have any clue about where the BTC price is going to go, but if anyone is trying to predict both a date and a price, then they likely need to place it in terms of probabilities, and so sometimes, people will give a "base case" which they believe to be the most likely outcome, but even a base case might have the strongest odds, but it still might be only 30% or 40%, even though it is the base case and the scenario with the highest of odds in comparison to other possibilities still might have less than 50% odds.

Of course, most normal people do not either speak in terms of probabilities and even if they were to do that many people still would not even hear them in terms of what they had just said because people like to hear what is going to happen and what is predicted to happen, even though it may not even have high odds of happening.

Sure, there are people who actually believe their own predictions or they believe that various events provide a high level of likelihood or certainty to what they are predicting and people seem to prefer when people speak with conviction and confidence in regards to predictions. .especially if someone is holding themselves out as an expert or engaged in an interview... which the subject of price and predictions frequently comes up because people like to hear about those kinds of topics.

Ah, buddy it took me a while to reply because you have written a very long post and comprehending that one takes some time . I have gone through your prediction thread before but today I saw that one and I must say that you had the probablity of Bitcoin going to $1.5M at 0.5% which any good thinker and investors might predict as that's less than 1% chance to achieve that level. Of course you're more serious with your predictions and you didn't claimed that it will go to $1.5 in 2021 or 2022 because those were the times of the intense bull run. Many of us have predicted that Bitcoin can go $1 million sometime and still a lot of us believe that it will go above $1 million but putting exact year might not be accurate.

Yes, you're right in saying that people are always curious to know that what's going to happen next with Bitcoin and they really want to hear something positive about it. Ah, that's also true that there are some people who don't listen to others predictions and follow their own predictions. The ones who participate in interviews often share their opinion about the upcoming price of the Bitcoin and their claims are mostly for showing purpose because they want to get attention of the audience only. I won't say that they aren't Bitcoin enthusiasts but they somehow show off to get some publicity.

You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge (or the appearance of being in charge).  I doubt that the government has as much control over the bitcoin price as you are making them out to be able to have in terms of their likely lame responses. and various problems that they have created for themselves over many decades.  It's not like they can fix the problem that they even put themselves into without somehow teaming up with bitcoin rather than fighting it.. but hey, they likely are going to have various battles and hopefully not too many of us bitcoin HODLers and/or activists end up becoming casualties of whatever bullshit hostilities that they choose to direct towards bitcoin.

I am not even anti-government, but I still can appreciate that dumb policies sometimes will come out from folks who do not really understand and when there are various kinds of desperation in society and in various governmental, societal and business systems that largely revolve around various historical abuses of fiat money systems... and yeah a CBDC would likely be another form of abuse, but not even necessarily working in their favor since bitcoin is already hear as a life boat and they might end up incentivizing more and more people to get on the bitcoin life boat if they take too draconian of measures... but yeah we will see.. I am not necessarily disagreeing that various CBDCs are going to be tried to attempt to rescue various sinking ships, but its not likely to even be close enough to either save them or that there is not even any strong evidence that bitcoin will end up being hindered (rather than accelerated by some of their possible draconian efforts which is likely going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction even if more world emergencies also are implemented. shutting down of the internet, aliens, more viruses, etc.

I know that Government isn't controlling Bitcoin and they won't be able to suppress its growth but they're making those CBDCs as competitors to Bitcoin and I believe that those CBDCs might play positive role for Bitcoin instead of suppressing it. Same like you I'm not against government or any centralized authorities, but still I guess that Sec and other authorities are trying their best to limit the growth of Bitcoin and that's a reason they're delaying the ETFs. The ETF's will surely play a better role in this coming cycle and they won't be able to delay those for much longer durations.

You're really right the CBDC will surely be another form of abuse like the fiat but I believe that CBDCs may work in favor of Bitcoin even if the government is making them as Bitcoin competitors. However, I still believe that the CBDCs are intended to suppress the growth of Bitcoin and they'll more likely play their role to promote CBDCs as safe back by Government and may promote fake lies against Bitcoin or ban it in many regions to suppress its growth. The Bitcoin is active and working only because of the community and the believers and if the started putting restrictions on citizens of their countries one-by-one then that might affect Bitcoin to some extent.

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[d_eddie]

Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...

(1.8 kb snipped)

Ah, buddy it took me a while to reply because you have written a very long post

(1 kb snipped)

You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge

(1.75 kb snipped)

I know that Government isn't controlling Bitcoin and they won't be able to suppress

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Hard as you try, you can't win the long game with him. Honorable mention for trying though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitcoinPsycho]

So I'm not the only one

https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-price-projection-soars-btc-gold-ratio-indicator-proposes-120000-price-target/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Yeah Buddy, now stay on top of it 
#GN

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Anybody still got significant fiat sitting on the sides, waiting?

I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.

I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?

Just having a good think, looking for opinions.

Q1: A-yes, but not TOO significant.
Q2: plenty...and 2020 has shown that it could come from anywhere:
a. Some kind of financial accident. Long bonds bought in 2021 are down 45-55% in value. Sure, if someone sits on them 10-20 years, they would get the nominal $ back at maturity plus a coupon.
However, if they used those bonds value to leverage up (and they usually do), then some players might be in trouble already, we just don't know who, exactly, and to which degree.
b. People dismiss geopolitics, but with a smaller probability, things could go worse there yet. Who knows what is going on in the heads of the politicians in the opposite camps? Do you trust that everything would be quiet? I hope so, but I cannot be certain.

Personally, I am waiting for new funds deployment at least until April, maybe even longer, depending on the Fed.
I might not capture an additional alpha, but as Arthur Hays says: getting 5.5-6% right now in money market on those "stale" funds beats going all in prematurely.

[fillippone]

Just having a good think, looking for opinions.

There is an having and above all, an ETF incoming.
Nobody is selling Bitcoin right now.
It is super resilient when compared to other asset classes like Bonds (ahah) stocks and... alts shitcoins.

As per recession, at the first sign of cracks, the FED will cut rates at a super fast speed.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

I think a lot of it is to do with women's emancipation resulting into two incomes needed to buy an average home and that trap setting the path of the future rather than being able to break out of it.

Men are no longer interested in defending their own countries in the west, they have been de-masculinised, whether that's protecting the country from foreign invaders or internal insane women like Clinton.
Men get the blame for everything.

As a result we lead by emotion only and not logic. If you are not a cuck and don't go along with this thought, then you must be cancelled / de-programmed. No border control for invaders, only for you and me as tax paying citizens wanting to travel.

The recent Russel Brand thing was a good example. If as a woman you scream rape you must be believed and the man gets cancelled, regardless of what actually happened.
Disagree with this and you will get cancelled or taken off air.

Men are no longer interested in raising families. Women between 20-40 are addicted to Tik Tok, make up, instagram and fucking Jack Thunderstroke, not an average looking guy. But men are the problem if women make bad choices.
Birth rates are dwindling. 50%+ of marriage ends in divorce and this trend just getting worse.

Do we ever see anyone/99% men here in W/O talking about doing fun stuff with their families? No, not really. Mostly people talking about doing their own thing, alone or with a fuckbuddy at most: travel, do well at healthy living & sports, music or other hobbies. And that is a good thing for all of us. Fuck being a cuck. Why would you go along with that shite?

However as a society, I think in the long run things just turn to shit all over with the lack of family units forming the most important part and we look to useless lead by emotion politicians instead to control our paths.

Sorry, but when 90%+ percent of the "modern day woman" started buying into the woke bullshit narrative that they are the Main Character^TM, that life revolves around them, that men are useless NPCs and that they instead will inherit the earth and run everything, that's when they sealed their own doom.

With that attitude they'll all end up in their sixties as depressed, penny-less, overweight cat ladies, alone and never married nor having children. And hating men the entirety of their lives.

With first-time divorce rates now at 50% and climbing higher, most men have awakened to the possibility that marriage and having a family will eventually financially bankrupt them. And with U.S. courts now heavily favoring the ex-wife, it will indeed. That's why they are either going it alone, or waiting much longer to get married.

My advice to young men is this: Don't get married in your 20's, or even in your 30's. You don't know yourself yet, and neither does your girlfriend/fiancee. You don't know the type of person you'll want to be with long term, and neither does she know. Don't get married and raise a family just because "it's expected of you" or "it's time". That's a complete bullshit expectation that society has burdened you with.

Build your career first, save your money, and invest. Get wealthier. Know yourself. Then in your 30's or 40's decide what you want in a spouse, and what kind of family (if any) you want to create.

I told my nephew this exact same thing 10 years ago and he ignored me and got married, two years ago he told me he wishes to god he listened to me back then.

  Here is my advice. I met my wife in 1985 I married her in 1986. My number 1 priority of all things was to please her and then she what she did when pleased. I found out she liked being pleased and then wanted to please me. This makes for a nice feedback loop. So if you find a woman and do my method and do not get the reaction I mention move on as that particular woman is defective. Plus she won't realize she is defective and will blame it al on you no matte what you do.

 My advice is based on straight heterosexual people for straight heterosexual people as that is my experience in life.
I do supposed that is likely the same for the other varieties of sexuality  but I can't speak for that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

I think a lot of it is to do with women's emancipation resulting into two incomes needed to buy an average home and that trap setting the path of the future rather than being able to break out of it.

Men are no longer interested in defending their own countries in the west, they have been de-masculinised, whether that's protecting the country from foreign invaders or internal insane women like Clinton.
Men get the blame for everything.

As a result we lead by emotion only and not logic. If you are not a cuck and don't go along with this thought, then you must be cancelled / de-programmed. No border control for invaders, only for you and me as tax paying citizens wanting to travel.

The recent Russel Brand thing was a good example. If as a woman you scream rape you must be believed and the man gets cancelled, regardless of what actually happened.
Disagree with this and you will get cancelled or taken off air.

Men are no longer interested in raising families. Women between 20-40 are addicted to Tik Tok, make up, instagram and fucking Jack Thunderstroke, not an average looking guy. But men are the problem if women make bad choices.
Birth rates are dwindling. 50%+ of marriage ends in divorce and this trend just getting worse.

Do we ever see anyone/99% men here in W/O talking about doing fun stuff with their families? No, not really. Mostly people talking about doing their own thing, alone or with a fuckbuddy at most: travel, do well at healthy living & sports, music or other hobbies. And that is a good thing for all of us. Fuck being a cuck. Why would you go along with that shite?

However as a society, I think in the long run things just turn to shit all over with the lack of family units forming the most important part and we look to useless lead by emotion politicians instead to control our paths.

Sorry, but when 90%+ percent of the "modern day woman" started buying into the woke bullshit narrative that they are the Main Character^TM, that life revolves around them, that men are useless NPCs and that they instead will inherit the earth and run everything, that's when they sealed their own doom.

With that attitude they'll all end up in their sixties as depressed, penny-less, overweight cat ladies, alone and never married nor having children. And hating men the entirety of their lives.

With first-time divorce rates now at 50% and climbing higher, most men have awakened to the possibility that marriage and having a family will eventually financially bankrupt them. And with U.S. courts now heavily favoring the ex-wife, it will indeed. That's why they are either going it alone, or waiting much longer to get married.

My advice to young men is this: Don't get married in your 20's, or even in your 30's. You don't know yourself yet, and neither does your girlfriend/fiancee. You don't know the type of person you'll want to be with long term, and neither does she know. Don't get married and raise a family just because "it's expected of you" or "it's time". That's a complete bullshit expectation that society has burdened you with.

Build your career first, save your money, and invest. Get wealthier. Know yourself. Then in your 30's or 40's decide what you want in a spouse, and what kind of family (if any) you want to create.

snip

  Here is my advice. I met my wife in 1985 I married her in 1986. My number 1 priority of all things was to please her and then she what she did when pleased. I found out she liked being pleased and then wanted to please me. This makes for a nice feedback loop. So if you find a woman and do my method and do not get the reaction I mention move on as that particular woman is defective. Plus she won't realize she is defective and will blame it al on you no matte what you do.

 My advice is based on straight heterosexual people for straight heterosexual people as that is my experience in life.
I do supposed that is likely the same for the other varieties of sexuality  but I can't speak for that.

There is ZERO reason to get married in your 20's or even 30's when you are expected to live past 80.

You have not actually lived and gained enough life experience by then to realize what raising a family is really all about.

Just because it worked out for you doesn't mean it works out for the majority.

snip

I get the idea a 35-40 year guy grabs a 25 year old for breeding.  It works for some.

Although at this point we have more than enough people.

Many live together from 30 to 35 get pregnant then and marry at that point.

[Hueristic]

Although at this point we have more than enough people.

Many live together from 30 to 35 get pregnant then and marry at that point.

This, getting married and making kids just because your dick works just means your brain doesn't yet.

[JayJuanGee]

Nearly half of crypto users invest to boost living standards: Report
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitget-survey-nearly-half-crypto-users-invest-boost-personal-living-standards

How has cryptocurrency investing changed?

How the fuck do they know what is the meaning of the question?

I did see the word bitcoin one time in the article.. so there might be some relation of this topic to king daddy.

Perhaps?

Perhaps?

Anybody still got significant fiat sitting on the sides, waiting?

I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.

I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?

Just having a good think, looking for opinions.

I am not going to claim to know much of anything. What else is new?

I do have quite a bit more cash than I would usually have from my June 2023 Binance incident that I bought back quite a bit in like three batches.. one batch was almost immediately when the BTC price went up from $28k to $140k-ish and then dropped back down to $29k-ish, and the second batch was some extra buy orders that I placed between $30k and $26k. .which surely all ended up getting filled, and I did not even have any kind of certainty that they would get filled, but they did, and the rest is just adding to my pre-existing buy orders that had already been set down to $13k-ish.. so I feel good having that extra cash, and surely hoping that I don't have to use it.. but it is there, just in case, otherwise it will likely end up just getting spent at various times in the coming year or so.. whether HLB or other more practical (or not) things.. not thinking of any investments at this time.. but you never know if something might come up that just requires some additional cash.. so I could draw some from those orders going down to $13k.. and really I have some trouble thinking that even sub $22k would be reached.. and we would have to break the don't wake me up zone first.. and sure those kinds of things do sometimes happen right before the more UPpity break ends up happening. .which is kind of the covid/mindrust situation (which was more extreme than usual)..

Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...
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Ah, buddy it took me a while to reply because you have written a very long post
(1 kb snipped)

You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge
(1.75 kb snipped)

I know that Government isn't controlling Bitcoin and they won't be able to suppress
(1.2 kb snipped)

Hard as you try, you can't win the long game with him. Honorable mention for trying though.

Oh my...



I am being stalked.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

I found a clone of preev.com at https://myri.io/

 I love the simplicity.  Also, it displays (and allows resizing) on my nearly obsolete iPhone 4 which I use at night when I'm having trouble falling asleep to listen to New/Talk radio.  

 On a side note, are these domain names Slavic words written using letters from the English alphabet or is it just easier to make something up than to find an available domain name that actually has something to do with theme of your site?

PS Buddy Block!