Actually the only exchange we need to take down is Bitstamp and then everything is fucked. It would be much MUCH worse than mtgox, even if mtgox was still running.

Marijuana is a physical product so Marijuana prices differ based on the following:
1. Quality of the product.
2. Cost of production, harvesting, etc
3. Location
4. Cost of transportation from the location to your location
5. Overhead to the specific criminal network(s) behind the production and distibution

Bitcoins are all exactly the same thing. There are slight variances in exchange prices based on the exchanges liquidity in moving fiat, but that is it.

Also, what if Bitcoin ends up like Myspace instead of Facebook. 

What gave you this idea?

I don't understand why ANY of you here would still have funds on mtgox. Mtgox has had blatant liquidity and management problems and been the running joke of this community for almost an entire  YEAR. I removed my funds in AUGUST. We had passed mtgox off as no longer relevant and a facade months and months ago and now suddenly it's a big deal again?

I'm not saying we need to pretend like gox doesn't exist, but rather we need to acknowledge that we've moved on from gox. When I saw the price make a strong rebound from 400 during the gox crash and start recovering on its own, I was incredibly bullish. I thought "here we are, the worst has happened, and the whales are still buying. this the bottom, even with all the bad news about gox priced in and with gox completely gone. now we can move on into a new era of recovery and a new rally. bitstamp is now leading, using entirely strength from bitstamp". The price was doing perfectly fine on it's own. A slow, steady, and strong recovery would have been perfect. We don't need to add accessories like "gox might recover" and pump the price to ridiculous levels right away. All this does is add more drama and uncertaintly, and now the neverending story continues. It is a de-evolution. Now I am back in the same situation I was in for the previous 4 weeks when I was bearish instead of bullish.

what? Have you looked at a chart? It jumped 55%.

I think socializing on the internet is a much more common trait among everyday people than the inclination to use an alt currency/commodity.

Why are mtgox developments still this big subject here? I thought we were just going to let mtgox die already and recover without it.

Why would the price change at all from where it's been trading at recently? The coins have been lost over years and the scarcity is already in place and taking effect on the market.

Also, if you think that btc's market cap should be X, so removing Y% of the supply should adjust the price to Z,  then the price difference should be no different than  7% - the amount of coins that were lost. Not to the moon.

mark karpeles reveals that he is satoshi

Wow I would have thought second market would have been one of the whales down there buying up the 400 crash. It leaves me wondering who it was.

You can theorize that 400 gox crash was either (A) a final capitulation or (B) a flashcrash like silk road.  In either case, there is a problem. In case A, the technicals are invalid, and in case B, a true capitulation has not occured.

On the other hand, I think the move from 400 to 600 is WAY overbought and is not trading like any previous bitcoin recovery. There should be a good conslidation back to around 500 before the next leg up. That would not be bearish. There might be a lot of consolidation in the 500s and 600s before getting to the 700s because if you go to a 3 day chart, there are EMAs at 625 and 670. Those are major resistances. When those break, all hell breaks loose, and the next trading area will probably be in the 800s. This will be like the 140 in August. Now if 2 months go by and the 3 day chart is still not reversed, then yes that is bearish.

Short interest is a GOOD THING if you're looking to take a long. It means there is a lot of potential energy, the coil is loaded down, and when traders close their positions, it will result in UPWARDS movement.

Analyze the TA in the follow charts of bear market recoveries, particularly the Stochastic RSI, the depth of the trading range, and the amount of time spent consolidating before breakout. These are all logarithmic charts to help emphasize and compare the depth of trading ranges.











Now look at the CURRENT recovery. Again pay attention to the Stochastic RSI.



The current recovery is completely unlike any other btc recovery in history.

1. The stochastic RSI was never down and is on the moon instead, appearing to give a SELL signal rather than a buy signal. In every other recovery, stochastic RSI is very low and then works its way upwards into the breakout.
2. It has a 55% trading range when every other recovery has a 20% trading range.
3. There is this hammer candle with a complete abandonment of the previous lows in 400-550. Every other recovery has gone down to retest the lows.
4. It has spent 2 days trading before breakout when every other recovery  has spent at least a week.

Thoughts?

I need some advice from Sun Tzu.

I'm just keeping my word. You asked me earlier when I'd stop being a bear and I said at 400.

This would make for a somewhat more realistic bottom.  (though it still looks a little short to me overall)

Sub 450 is unlikely. Too much volume.