 It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time. It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article. Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?
It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.
It is NOT going to last forever, is it? And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD) The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend. I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern. |
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Is SecondMarket contacting Mtgox liquidator?
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It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time. |
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Bitcoin was the first prototype of a cryptocurrency but as time passes, it is slowly but surely losing its hegemony.
This was maybe the last bubble targeting specifically Bitcoin.
Next bubbles will increasingly push next generation coins to the forefront.
As for China, it won't come back through Bitcoin, but maybe new designs that play better with fiat can help reopening the flood gate.
Right. I could see Bitcoin in an encyclopedia: "The very first decentralized cryptocurrency. It wasn't like the currencies you may know today, such as Cosmos. It took at least 10 minutes to do a transfer, the client took 10GB of disk space, and the network consumed massive amounts of energy resources, relying on a brute force approach to security." |
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Huh, I had a bad dream last night. I had finally given a chance to an altcoin and was playing with about $30k stash. I saw it going for 55 (satoshi, I presume), and decided to buy. It jumped to 80, then came back. I thought it is going to the moon and bought several small lots at market. Then it briefly went to 23, but I was too slow to buy. Back at 50. Bought more. Back at 23. Then... whatth heck.. the price is suddenly dropping to 4!! Someone is dumping. Now I want out. But there is no one to buy. At the instant it goes back to 20ish, the dump starts again. The idea of losing $20k in a matter of minutes is not very nice. This dream will keep me from buying alts  Kind of reminds me of the opening day of Feathercoin on btc-e where I lost 25% of my stash. |
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We need new exchanges and fresh fiat. It doesn't have to be Chinese.
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If this ends up being a 2011-like bear market, then the next bull run may not set new ATHs, but may be a recovery rally, perhaps from $200 to $500. Then 8 months later another recovery rally to $900, Then 8 months after that, a rally that breaks ATH.
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Positive X-factors:
-Bitcoin exchanges open up in New York
-Bitcoin opens on OTC markets
-China removes all bitcoin banking restrictions
Something along the likes of Google adopts bitcoin.
-A country actually conducts capital flight into bitcoin
-Some other huge unexpected advancement in the technology, adoption, or liquidity
Negative X-factors:
-Chinese exchanges are actually closed.
-Hundreds of thousands, or millions, of coins start being dumped, for whatever reason (mtgox liquidation, china, or just bearish whales)
-Some catastrophic protocol failure
-Underlying ciphers are broken
-U.S. government ban
-Bitstamp, btce, and/or bitfinex fail.
Factors just to warrant against trading:
-Exchange shuts down
-Exchange is hacked; Money is stolen from exchange
-Account is compromised; Money is stolen from account
-Government seizure of exchange assets
-The exchange is not operating during a key trading moment and I make a huge loss
-I am looking at bitcoinwisdom while I am driving and I die
add russia invades ukraine to that x-factor if that happens we are through the roof i think No. There is a false impression that a world crisis would cause bitcoin price to rise. In fact, it would cause bitcoin price to fall as it is something new and unproven as a store of value and is backed almost entirely by bank wires of speculator money, which dry up in a crisis. |
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I have some dreams now that are nothing but bitcoinwisdom charts with price movements. About 60% of the time, they are exactly correct with the exact price target and either they happen during the next day or I wake up to find that it had happened while I was sleeping. One time I even had a dream that it went up to exactly X and then fell to exactly Y, and then went to Z, and it came true.
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One thing is certain
how? I mean you could give me an opinion of how you came with your projection, but, how can anything be certain? This is the most uncertain market there is. Actually in order to break 415, any one of hundreds of people simply needs to click a button. |
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That last one would be a real downer.
Google actually did adopt bitcoin, in part, if the Glass rumors are true. Also seems like your list of negatives is more generalized and vague than the list of positives. Smells a bit like irrational fear.
I don't think these fears are irratinonal. I think if any uninitiated investor was given this list of risks, they would not think of even go anywhere near it. We only stay here and accept these risks because we have first hand experience with past performance and have seen bitcoin survive through many of what seemed like might be catastrophes so we have established a pattern in our mind that bitcoin (and the price) is immortal. |
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Positive X-factors:
-Bitcoin exchanges open up in New York
-Bitcoin opens on OTC markets
-China removes all bitcoin banking restrictions
Something along the likes of Google adopts bitcoin.
-A country actually conducts capital flight into bitcoin
-Some other huge unexpected advancement in the technology, adoption, or liquidity
Negative X-factors:
-Chinese exchanges are actually closed.
-Hundreds of thousands, or millions, of coins start being dumped, for whatever reason (mtgox liquidation, china, or just bearish whales)
-Some catastrophic protocol failure
-Underlying ciphers are broken
-U.S. government ban
-Bitstamp, btce, and/or bitfinex fail.
Factors just to warrant against trading:
-Exchange shuts down
-Exchange is hacked; Money is stolen from exchange
-Account is compromised; Money is stolen from account
-Government seizure of exchange assets
-The exchange is not operating during a key trading moment and I make a huge loss
-I am looking at bitcoinwisdom while I am driving and I die
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I have removed 70% of my capital from bitcoin markets. I thinking of going long in cold storage with the other 30% and quitting bitcoin trading.
Yup. I must be a mind reader or something. Either that or that there is only one logical conclusion for even talented and disciplined traders to come to in a declining market with capital pouring out it in tanker loads. In a declining shrinking market, the odds are greatly increased in favour of the trader losing, than the trader winning. In such an environment, a trader must be performing better than average just to break even. Another way of breaking even that involves zero effort, worry, risk etc, is of course simply to not participate. I have personal reasons of doing this also. It isn't entirely about my prognosis of the market. To be honest I don't know where the market is going right now - it could either break up or down, and there are a lot of X-factors that could happen at any time. So I'm removing an amount of fiat and amount of coins that I'm comfortable with. It won't effect my life anymore if I lose this level of bitcoin investment, and I won't miss the train if there's a breakout. But to trade, there is now too little volume and too little volatility and the stress and time to be involved with the 24/7 market is not fitting in with my life anymore. |
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It's kind of funny how a lot of people say that past performance does not predict the future, and then go on to post charts based on past performance.
The market is too small. One big player can push the market into the thousands, whatever your charts and burger indexes say.
One big player, or rather one big capital flight event. If the X-Factor doesn't come along then Bitcoin will do what every other market does in a post bubble phase where more and more fiat is exiting the market leaving the market to be moved by pre-existing traders basically gambling with each other in increasingly smaller amounts. I have less than a quarter of what I did have in Bitcoin still on exchanges. But I am a shit trader. Everyone knows that. But what about TER? Speak to him. Bet the truth is that he has gradually taken a large ball of his capital out the game also. This is a general trend and a trend that can ultimately mean only one thing unless the X Factor comes along, which it might......but I wouldn't be relying on any largely unpredictable event to come along and save my skin/help me break even. I have removed 70% of my capital from bitcoin markets. I thinking of going long in cold storage with the other 30% and quitting bitcoin trading. |
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What kind of news is this?? There are no actual recent events or developments occurring - it is just the author's description of bitcoin. I already know what Bitcoin is. And what does this thread have to do with gold? |
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The train is rocketing up right now.
The train has slowed down but it is still going up.
We're going up after this brief consolidation.
We're going up after a long consolidation.
We're going up after this small dip.
We're going up after a large dip.
Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.
It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.
It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.
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I don't hate you jr65, I just don't believe your magical. I have been reading about bitcoins imminent collapse for years now.
"Bitcoin will NEVER reach $1. It's impossible and here is a chart I made to prove it!"
"Bitcoin can't reach $10, it has no intrinsic value!"
I think your forgetting that value is an illusion created by humans. Gold is just a shinny rock and the money in your pocket is just fancy paper. They derive their value from a common belief in their value. As long as I have another person to trade with bitcoin will survive in my economy.
Gold has the first mover advantage of being a currency that has been accepted all over the world in every country and civilization for thousands of years. People trust gold because it has proven itself over the test of time to hold its value for thousands of years. Bitcoin has been around for, what... 5 years? Even after bitcoin is gone/broken, the internet is gone, or the world as we know it has been wiped out by nuclear holocaust and civilization is rebuilt, gold will still be here and will still have value. |
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I was drawing a short term chart with a triangle with logarithmic lines. Then I extended it out and discovered I had inadvertently drawn a long term chart as well.  Bonus feature: An observation of 1W EMAs. New candle drawn tomorrow. |
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