Since bitcoin is more mature and less volatile now, the magnitude of movements are less.  However, this is more about time than it is about distance, and about what to expect out of the next bull runs. Distance and time need to match up we that we meet the 2011 trendline. Theoretically this could actually be accomplished simply by going sideways at 450 for a year.

Amazing, there are trains in the thread. People have been posting pictures of trains since all the way back on Jan 15 (or earlier).

There is too little volume to trade now and my trading accounts are now 1/6 of the size that they were 3 months ago. The rest of the funds are either in cold storage or in a bank account or stock/forex brokerage account. I am deciding to part even with this final 1/6 because bitcoin trading is too taxing on my mind. I haven't decided yet exactly how I'm going to split it into cash and coins, and of course waiting for the bottom of this latest drop helps get me more of both.

There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

This is very minor news compared to the original caixin news.  We're talking about a blanket notice to all of China vs this two little companies that I don't know are even involved with Bitcoin exchanges. Of course the biggest news will be when exchanges themselves start completely shutting down because they are not profitable anymore.

When we're talking about such huge numbers in increases  I don't see what the point is in in jumping the gun and buying early into a downtrend, rather than waiting till the downtrend reverses and confirms into an uptrend.  Let's take the increase from $5 (pre bottom) to $6(post bottom). You could have bought either which then increases to $1000. Does it really make a difference whether you bought at $5 or $6? The difference is that at $5 you were buying into a downtrend and then $6 came 6 months later after a reversal was confirmed and at $6 you are buying into an uptrend. So you paid an extra $1 to get security and immediate returns with your investment. Meanwhile, you gain 6 months to use your captital in some other crazy investment, potentially increasing it 10 times, so you can buy 10 times more coins when you're done.

The nature of the fractal is that the outer H&S keeps failing. One thing that should tip you off is that the volume in the head here is always lower than the volume in the shoulder. Also, this will probably be the last incarnation of the fractal because the end will be too close to the long term log downtrend for another even larger fractal to be drawn. So we either break through the downtrend or collapse down again. Which way will it go? I prefer to bet with the dominant trend.

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

There was news by the New York regulator that the framework in which regulated exchanges can be launched should be in place no later than July and that they are accepting advance applications now. Nothing has actually been launched.

I don't really know actually. Bottom hunting is just too hard and all I do is play the MACDs week by week. I did notice that this 6 week cycle seems a little bit stronger than the last in that there is more volume and accumulation going on in the upper channel of the trend than there was last cycle. So the bottom might not be too far away. Maybe $250-$350. I don't think it will possibly go below $150 unless there is some catastrophic failure or U.S. ban, based on connecting the support from the 2011-2012 chart.  Of course all of this can be changed by major events. For example exchanges could open in New York.  

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

Very good question. If you zoom out on the chart, you see a very calm and consistent downwards sloping sine wave. But if you zoom in, you see a bunch of chaotic spikes which are all labeled as apparently being caused by some type of news or the other. How can this be a coincidence?

The guessing I was referring to is that you are guessing that someone is in some plot behind the scenes to manipulate the charts in a certain way while taking a certain position and it goes completely undetected by TA. I agree that supply and demand affects bitcoin price, and TA is execellent at interpreting this.

Bitcoin is banned by the federal government and if you are caught owning bitcoin, you pay a fine of 2,500 per coin.

I am currently only 20% btc though. If I went 100% btc (like you probably are), it would be 3 figures also. It's kind of a misleading number because I could be 2% btc and have 5 figures, etc.

My break even price is -($2500)

You are using a self defeating strategy that is impossible to win with.
1. If the downtrend continues, it will never reach your break even point while the downtrend is in force and you will hold on to a losing position indefinitely.
2. If your break even point is reached, that will mean that the downtrend has broken and it will be an uptrend, meaning it will be a terrible time to sell.

The only good moves are:
a. Commit to your position as a long term holding.
b. Sell now or at some point along the downtrend ceiling, taking a small loss. Then buy back later if/when the trend is confirmed to be reversed.

I don't understand. I see a quick zip through a chart and then a music video. Was there supposed be some TA somewhere?

So the logic here is because that because a rally occured at a certain point of emotion in the past, it going to occur at the same point again in the future? Is it like groundhogs day and we just keep repeating the same thing over and over?

OKCoin is a scam too.