Ive got a chart too  any surprises a head and shoulder on two major trend lines, one turned support? You're using a linear chart. I told you guys there would be a trap with a breakout on linear chart but resistance by logarithmic chart. you went bullish when it broke the huobi logarithmic wedge. Right. I got carried away too early and made a fool of myself that day. I would have been bullish if the logarithmic breakout had persisted but instead it only went up a tiny amount before being violently thrown back hours later. |
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Ive got a chart too any surprises a head and shoulder on two major trend lines, one turned support? You're using a linear chart. I told you guys there would be a trap with a breakout on linear chart but resistance by logarithmic chart. |
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 We're not even in the lower channel yet. We just had a bounce off of the barrier, because the seller did not want to break it yet. Look how the lowest point had a low volume relative to the initial push down, because the seller was in control. |
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It's easy to feel bullish when we're right up next to the trendline isn't it. The smart money holds back from selling to give the illusion of a reversal and milks as much bullishness out of you as possible. Then when there is news or the slightest sign that the trap is exhausted, the make a giant dump all at once.
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong? There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now. (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers) Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss. is the volume fake, or not? there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved. We don't know exactly how much Chinese volume is 'fake' and how much is real. You don't have to attribute the falling to one particular thing. Just that supply > demand. There are millions of free coins floating around right now from various sources as well as a lack of buyers and interest for several reasons. This manifests into a downtrend. When the tides turn for whatever reason, you will see the downtrend reverse and indicators start to flip on the weekly chart. 40k bitcoins were bought just the other day, injecting more than 1billion yuan into the market cap. how many times can that be sustained? I see on the chart divergance on the macd on a daily scale, a head and shoulders, and the same on an hourly scale. the bear run is now weaker than the bull run, and whats more, nobody seems to care about the chinese news last night. we are rallying. im beginning to think the word trend is becoming cliche. Has this 40K btc purchased news actually been confirmed by anyone as legitimate? I saw it linked on some Chinese site. Perhaps it's a Chinese pump before their next dump. This purchase could technically happen 300 times. But who is to say it will happen even one more time? It takes more than just some occasional institutional investor to cause a reversal - there needs to be a trend of new people getting interested and actually wanting to use the technology, or a new market. The daily chart is trumped by the weekly ema downcross. All the little patterns and indicators you are looking at will just get erased with a random giant red candle out of nowhere. There was no chinese 'news' last night. A couple banks made statements but we already found out from the previous news that they were required to do this, and that is only two banks out of many. |
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong? There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now. (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers) Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss. is the volume fake, or not? there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved. We don't know exactly how much Chinese volume is 'fake' and how much is real. You don't have to attribute the falling to one particular thing. Just that supply > demand. There are millions of free coins floating around right now from various sources as well as a lack of buyers and interest for several reasons. This manifests into a downtrend. When the tides turn for whatever reason, you will see the downtrend reverse and indicators start to flip on the weekly chart. |
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong? There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now. (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers). Millions of hoarded coins are likely to be tempted to sell now too now that we are in a 1W downtrend. Then there is mining. Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss. |
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Bitstamp, 1 day charts, 2013-2014 support line to be tested in approximately four weeks by this current bear trend.  It is believed by many in the community that this will be the final phase of capitulation and usher in the next rally. This is the final warning: if you are still in fiat, it might be a good idea to re-enter the market in May. How exactly did you place this arbitrary line at the bottom. I see it doesn't actually contact the end of any of the candles except 1. I decided to bypass the flash crash on April 11 from my support line because it was a fluke generated by an X factor event. All of the downwards spikes are caused by 'events'. How can you ignore one but not others? |
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Bitstamp, 1 day charts, 2013-2014 support line to be tested in approximately four weeks by this current bear trend. It is believed by many in the community that this will be the final phase of capitulation and usher in the next rally. This is the final warning: if you are still in fiat, it might be a good idea to re-enter the market in May. How exactly did you place this arbitrary line at the bottom. I see it doesn't actually contact the end of any of the candles except 1. |
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Always a bunch of this 'hot news' to fuel the bull trap.
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New update from OKCoin (2014-05-01 08:46:08) RE: CCB "Declaration on the Prohibition of the use of my bank account for Bitcoin transactions."
Hello, my colleagues have been responsible for the company and related verified. No problem, our account hasn't been cancelled. Please rest assured. It looks like banks have put the statement online without cancelling a single account. All exchanges still allowing fiat deposits as usual. Find specific accounts being used for bitcoin trading and then cancelling them is a task ahead of them that they have to do work for and perform. However, it is easy to simply post a statement. The May 10 deadline I believe is just a deadline to make statements and not actually close accounts. |
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last call, all aboard
I am very optimistic about what I see and I believe next 24h will bring some more ++.
See this is what I'm talking about. Why is it that the closer we inch towards the downtrend line where the huge sudden downspikes occur and the traps are about to be sprung, the more bullish people get. It's always at this point people get extra bullish and start making references to trains, etc. Meanwhile it is the worst possible time to trade. |
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Bitcoin will never be as stable as BRK either.  If only btc looked like this, I would have no problem just hodling. |
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Go ahead guys CCMF trade this at your peril. I think I'll sit out.  |
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Is everyone in here ignorant, only focused on price speculation, and doesn't actually analyze and research anything about what they're talking about? Every Chinese bank that makes their required public statement, now I hear posters here chime in with "o noez more bs china fud. when will they stop'. Really? The Caixin news required that EVERY Chinese bank involved make a public statement that they would not provide services to bitcoin related accounts. So now obviously you will see several (or dozens) of PRs, all from banks individually complying with this statement. They are not all 'another china ban pr', they are not 'bans', and it is not 'fud'. Grow up and get educated about what you are actually talking about.
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'you've got to speculate to accumulate'.
Are you accumulating tens of thousands of coins or something? |
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Everyone is so bullish right before the trap and buys in to get burned, during some slow weak push up towards the major downtrend line.
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They're using just coinbase and kraken for charting?? why?
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I think with Bitcoin the hardest season is right after the first purchase. We purchased right before and well into the first bubble in April last year. It was a very long Summer and we were under water for most of it. The hardest part was thinking if we hadn't bought into the bubble we could have bought more coins than we did. I think that was what hurt the most. Of course November came and it was great and I was very glad I held on. I think having been through this a year I have a little wisdom and have learned from experience how Bitcoin works. Holding is the hardest thing to do, especially when the person has purchased the coins towards the peak of a bubble. The best thing to do would be to buy more on the drops, if the person has any fiat left, or just ride it out if not. But it isn't easy for sure. My advice to Veronica now would be to just buy back in as much as she is willing to risk and ride it out. We will have another bubble. Didn't Barry Silbert at Second Market "guarantee" it?  That's exactly what I did. When the price fell I bought more which brought down the average price I had paid for my coins. And I was fully aware that it would be a rollercoaster ride when I got involved but I knew even then that no matter how low it went, I wouldn't be selling. Averaging down is many times a bad strategy. It does not reduce the amount of capital you have actually lost already - only in your head. Then it subjects you to more risk, and you are making an additional purchase into a downtrend. |
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Why is this not going below 400 or worse ? Here we are sitting like a rock at 440, which was unthinkable back in january. Is there any genuine short-term bull case, besides rockets and slogans ? I'm a tired bear, been at it for 5 months now, and tbh im worn out. I want to close my shorts, but i've gotta play the market. I see no reason to buy before May 10, and/or whatever deadline comes after that. I'll be needing some Bull rehab after this is done.  The longest bear market was June-November 2011, some 163 days. The current downtrend is 151 days assuming it is still intact and did not bottom out at $339 which would be 132 days. So maybe the trend is as worn out as everyone watching it. Won't be obvious until a decisive breakout is seen which is a return to the $550-$600 area. Time and depth lengths from trends of the distant past are proving again and again to be a bad way to analyze events in the present or predict events in the future. People are getting burned by this every day in here. TA is not about taking exact patterns from the past and saying they will happen exactly the same way again with the exact same parameters. TA is dynamic. |
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