Seems like only yesterday I was considering buying at 14.3$ ... Oh wait, it was!

Actually, my funds just didn't clear in time  , damn you banking system, damn you !!!   

2 remarks, don't know if they have been addressed before:

1) I can't find the "comparison list" (easily, and it should be easy).  Does it exist already?  If so, you might want to make 'comparison list' clickable in the message you get after you click "Add to compare"

2) I believe you only accept payments in bitcoin.  While I think your website is great for the bitcoin community and its advancement of legal businesses, why not accept alternative (meaning the traditional) means of payment too, but give like a 5% reduction for using bitcoins.  That way your target audience grows substantially, and you'll have a better shot at becoming profitable, or am I overlooking some effects?

great website, good job !

I suggest you go full pokemon-style for everything !

Uh, I mean:

Bi bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin-bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin !

 

Love it when I am right 

What do you mean?


Ah k, I am not yet familiar with R (only heard about it), but thanks for making the info available.


My understanding of Pearsons r is very basic to be honest.  The closer to 1, the stronger the correlation, that's about the extent of my knowledge :-) .  What else were you thinking of?  Other normalisation or something like that? 
It would of course be more interesting to have a number that showed the "predictive power of future price" somehow. Not sure if this exists.

By the way, in my edited previous post I suggested using an integral, but given that you are working with discrete data, that would just be the sum (of the wikipedia pageviews etc.).

Shouldn't there be a "betting end date"?

Anyways, probably too bullish, but I am going for 21.5$ 

sounds like a pretty solid theory to me.  I would probably use the integral of search hits over time instead of first derivative, (showing the accumulation of new users), given that 1000 hits now will probably have more impact on price than 1000 hits a few years from now (assuming bitcoin keeps growing).  To account for inflation, maybe its easiest to calculate what effect the news hits have on market cap instead of price (from which price can easily be calculated by dividing by nr of coins in circulation).
Maybe also add a component which accounts for some people becoming disillusioned over time and selling (no idea how to implement that yet).

By the way 123, how did you get this data?
Might be interesting to do pearson correlation with price (or market cap) as well: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

I find that one pretty clever actually.  I wasn't rofl-ing, but it is nifty 

I am not knowledgeable about Ripple, but it is described as a lending system in this article.
Then why do they compare it to an exchange?
I mean, sure, you could get bitcoins for a while, but you have to pay them back.
In an exhange, you exchange one good (for example dollars) for another, permanently, because you want to own the other thing.
If you want to own bitcoins and have the capital for it, why pay interest on it?

Thats what I meant

Me too, would be glad to put money on that on http://betsofbitco.in/
You can raise it to 14.5$ for all I care, hell, make it 15$ .

So, its like a "shorting greater fool" theory?

Why do you think asics will have an impact on BTC price?

I still think competing crypto-currencies could be a dealbreaker for bitcoin.  But it would have to have a serious advantage over bitcoins, not just another "please-make-me-rich-fast" bitcoin clone.  Moreover, the longer bitcoin stays the biggest game in crypto-town, the better established it gets, the higher the barrier for switching from bitcoin to another currency.  It would have to be that much better in order to abandon bitcoins.

Don't know bout you, but where I live there is a hefty fee for buying coins through localbitcoins.com . 
The only possible advantage I see is that you could stay anonymous.

You have a better way of buying?

My guess is we will be break 14.4$ by next week.

While I greatly appreciate the availability of such a weaknesses list, I feel that the risks are somewhat downplayed. 
For example the 51% attack is listed as "probably not a problem", but I still think of it as a serious risk (maybe there are other much easier ways to attack the network, frankly I don't know much about the technical side).  It is assumed that the attacker seeks profit within the bitcoin system, whereas I would expect this kind of attack from a system competing with bitcoin, which would avoid losing market share to bitcoin.

I might be wrong, but this makes no sense to me.  So say you are selling, and when they receive a buy order that would have reached my sell limit, but they sell their stuff cheaper instead.  Now what ?   My order still stands, I still have my bitcoins.  The buying guy just got his bitcoins cheaper.  If my bitcoins were sold, but the exchange will give them back to me, they need a mechanism to get newer ones cheaper, I don't see a foolproof mechanism for that.  If they weren't going to give them back to me in the first place, why bother with the exchange shenanigans at all, why not just run away with customers deposits.

The worst I think they could do is, if someone places a big "limit" order (one that would immediately result in some transactions), is to resolve all the intermediary orders before the limit order clears, and then place their own order at the limit (for the amount of intermediary orders that they cleared), making the guy pay fully (instead of getting the cheaper intermediary stuff), while they make the difference.   With a "market" order you could make this even nastier of course.  
But for mtgox, I can see that the intermediate orders are resolved when my order clears, so I see no foul play