I closed my gox <--->bitstamp/bitfinex arbitrage at a profit, brought back the cash to bitfinex, now my bid at 1630% was taken, feeling like a boss  . (sorry, I had to brag, even if its only for a small amount  ) Anyone kind enough to explain the mechanic and math ? Your username is arbitrage001 and you want me to explain arbitrage ? Loving the irony here  (though probably my post was just too unclear, and you thought the 1630% had something to do with the arbitraging). I had fiat on bitfinex and BTC on gox. Gox price was higher than bitfinex/bitstamp. Sold some coins on Gox, bought same amount of cheaper coins on bitfinex --> profit. Some time later, Bitfinex/Bitstamp prices were a bit higher than Gox for a short time. Sold the coins at Bitfinex, rebought the coins at gox --> little bit of profit, and fiat back at bitfinex. Arbitrage cycle completed. The last part is just that my fiat was right back on time to get some awesome % loans as a lender at Bitfinex. |
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Somebody who registered to the forums in bubble-time that keeps his head cool and has common sense? Now I have seen everything...  Welcome aboard sailor ! PS: funny how you can phrase something as a compliment, and meanwhile offend hundreds of people, right? Apologies to other bubble-entrants, but you have to admit on average there is some truth to it... This is very true, most of the users that got in around that time have been weeded out. Honestly when I got in was pure chance as I was on the dark and had an interesting idea. Mmm, I am having some trouble understanding your post unambiguously. Do you mean you had an interesting business idea for darknet applications, and that's when you bought bitcoins (around the same time you registered on forum)? |
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But Dead Cat Bounce in 2011 was very large (much bulls believed that they were already at the bottom). To be fair, we sort of did bounce from $57 to $166, if that can be considered the 'dead cat bounce.' Think thats more like the 10 to 20 bounce, but of course this bubble isn't an exact replica of the last one. |
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Sorry, but the whole " backed by ... " discussion is such bullshit. The only reason something needs backing, is if it is inherently crap to start with. Fiat notes needed backing with gold because otherwise people that were used to using gold or silver as money before wouldn't have trusted them, as they would have been perceived as the Monopoly money that they are. Infinitely printable Zimbabwe notes....
Fiat money is not backed by gold, that's how it differs from representative money. Folks trust it just fine -- all the money in the world, including Bitcoin, is fiat. With Bitcoin value halving in the past month, it may be unwise to draw attention to another dead currency. Ok, I meant to say that currencies that are now fiat used to be backed by gold or silver. Do you know of any fiat currency that did not have to go through the representative money stage first (or evolved from another fiat currency that had to do that first, like with the euro)? I am honestly asking, but my guess is there are few examples. If something is "just fine", then why back it up in the first place? On the other hand, gold, silver and bitcoins are valued based on their properties, and how well they can serve as money or a store of value compared to the alternatives (+the non-monetary uses for silver and gold of course).
In other words, during the last month Bitcoin's ability to store value & its usefulness for commerce has HALVED? Not sure if that's what i'd call a great store of value  No, that's just price discovery going on. Perhaps I should have said " gold, silver and bitcoin are valuable because of ...". |
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I'm so sick of these "price is dropping because of X" bullshit threads. Price is dropping because it had no business being $150+ in the first place. It's way too early for that kind of valuation compared to actual current use as currency. It was a BUBBLE, and bubbles always pop.
I'm sick of the "Price had no business being 150+" threads. What would be a fair price for a random unit of a currency backed by ... nothing? No economy, no product, no army? This is so frickin' arbitrary. Sorry, but the whole " backed by ... " discussion is such bullshit. The only reason something needs backing, is if it is inherently crap to start with. Fiat notes needed backing with gold because otherwise people that were used to using gold or silver as money before wouldn't have trusted them, as they would have been perceived as the Monopoly money that they are. Infinitely printable Zimbabwe notes.... On the other hand, gold, silver and bitcoins are valued based on their properties, and how well they can serve as money or a store of value compared to the alternatives (+the non-monetary uses for silver and gold of course). |
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Just saw about 3000BTC get pulled off the buy walls to 62.
Wonder if it ll become a lower buy wall, or an market order buy... |
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Basically what OP is pointing towards despite his strange numbers, is over saturation... More coins and not as much demand equals low value.
It is this simple, and there is no need to make overly complex assumptions. Roughly 3,600 new coins are created every day. There must be demand for 3,600 new coins every day for price to stay steady. We just fell off a period of massive amounts of panic buying. Most panic buyers have sold out at this point. However, for price to rise again, we're going to have to wait for more infrastructure and useful functions to come out of bitcoin. And they are coming. Patience is a virtue. http://thegenesisblock.com/significant-merchant-improvements-planned-for-bitcoin-v0-9/Agreed, and thanks for the link! |
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I can feel a Winkledump coming. BTW, how many coins do they have? 200k, but they won't be moving them anytime soon, see ETF |
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I've been lurking quite a lot recently. I find the players here funny, obviously most of them are amateurs riding the emotion trend way to hard. If you were smart, you would just sell your coins then wait until there is a comfortable bottom. We are at $67 now according to mtgox/bitcoinity and I doubt this will be the floor. I'm guessing $40's. I'm not gonna waste any of you guy's time with charts but $40's or $30's is definitely the time to buy in.. why? Because even if that is not the floor you have little to lose depending on how much you are willing to gamble. Anyways, why are you weak ones panicing now? Did you really think that the high prices would last long for what still is a child in development. Wait, buy in at low 30-40 then sit. If it works out it works out, if it doesnt it shouldnt bother you anyway because the rule of thumb is never to put in more than you are willing to lose. Man, I feel bad for all the guys that posted on here 3 months ago talking about the loans they took out for BTC. Get serious.
Somebody who registered to the forums in bubble-time that keeps his head cool and has common sense? Now I have seen everything... Welcome aboard sailor ! PS: funny how you can phrase something as a compliment, and meanwhile offend hundreds of people, right? Apologies to other bubble-entrants, but you have to admit on average there is some truth to it... |
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(2011 price / 2011 ecosystem) > (2013 price / 2013 ecosystem) Are we going to disagree on this also?  Actually, I looked at some metrics yesterday, and if you look at bitcoin purely from the "medium of exchange" point of view, so various metrics normalized versus the number of transactions, the 2013 bubble was a lot bubblier, and we are still very much overvalued. However, I have believed from the start (had some discussions about this with E. Mucus) that people would feel safer and safer to keep their bitcoins around, and it would start serving more as a store of value, and from the data, there certainly is a case to be made for this as well. PS: I also think that you should look at the price in log terms. |
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Loads of fiat on the sideline and loads more coins for sale that are not on the order book, waiting nervously for that rally ... that may or may not come before their pain threshold is reached
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHM-z_rHz9M |
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That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.
IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller. $1-2 ---> $30 15-30 folds $30 ---> $266 8 folds it's actually from $13, so 20 folds Yeah, I would say 2011: 30 fold, 2013: 20 fold so, 2015 : 10 fold? --> and 2019 : CRASHH !!! |
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That is like dissing gold because only a few large miners control most gold mining Rubbish  What counts is that there is enough BTC for everyone to use, not to mine, and that it cannot be created from thin air to enslave people, like fiat can The only potential problem would be, if miners decide to monopolize BTC transport so that transaction fees grow extremely high. Hear hear. Why would people move to a new cryptocurrency with the associated volatility and growing pains that will have taken bitcoin 10+ years to go through? No, if anything they will demand greater taxation of the rich or something like that, much more convenient. |
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is everyone trying to figure out where the bottom is now?
that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.
Seems pretty likely to me. I also think it will take quite while before we find the final bottom. |
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I'd agree that the exact start is debatable, but in my opinion the speculative bubble didn't start until the media hit and the general public joined in. Until then, the speculation was limited to the relatively small group of people within the community. Again, I don't believe the chart give the whole picture (particularly as someone who was around the community back then)
Ok, but then the latest bubble didn't start at $10-15 either. More like $30-50 if I remember correctly (most profoundly at the $50 'plateau'). |
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$15 is a good price  If it hits that price, I am backing up the truck. Might happen though. |
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good day sir, I see bitcoin as a powerful educational tool. The gaming software is still new and what I would classify as beta. We have a long way to go, so I seriously hope no one get's the wrong idea and falls for craft strategies that repackagie bitcoin as some sort of get rich quick scheme... Ira
Sorry, but I don't see what you are getting at. Are you saying that bitcoin is still a risky experiment, or that it has no real future and all of this is just like an interesting psychological test that will ultimately not lead to something usable? Or what exactly? |
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*Yawn* Give us some volatility already ! I am getting bored and demand entertainment ! |
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1. Buy LTC at current price 2. Wait till it is on Mt.Gox 3. Sell 4. Profit 5. Except everybody might be thinking that... |
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