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If I were the guy who sold his house for bitcoin, I would explore the merits of tents.
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The median is simply the middle number of the sample here. The data isn't distributed normally, the mean is over $5000 and the SD over $26000.
Should have used log scale (seriously!) i.e. use the geometric mean instead of arithmetic mean, and compute the SD by exp(sqrt(sum((log(P(i)) - log(Pmean))^2))). Hey, thanks. I have ~$480 for the geometric mean, and ~10.5 for the geometric SD. If I understand this right, the geometric standard deviation is multiplicative, so 1sigma would be 480*10.5, 2sigma 480*10.5^2, while -1sigma would be 480/10.5? |
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Did you use a Gaussian function to have it? A normal distribution is very good to understand probability...
The median is simply the middle number of the sample here. The data isn't distributed normally, the mean is over $5000 and the SD over $26000. |
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@OP: can we have a summary of all predictions so far in some spreadsheet?
It would be very interesting to see the sentiment of posters.
| Name_________________ | Amount ($) | | chmod755 | 0.05 | | Jammalan the Prophet | 1.00 | | mikelitoris | 17.00 | | NotHatinJustTrollin | 36.00 | | esse83 | 44.00 | | ravenjt | 49.99 | | thewayshegoes | 54.60 | | God27 | 62.00 | | BitcoinNewbie15 | 63.44 | | Morecoin Freeman | 67.23 | | JorgeStolfi | 81.01 | | Dump3er | 89.71 | | WiiD | 111.00 | | SkyValeey | 130.00 | | leen93 | 158.57 | | gentlemand | 249.51 | | Shatoshi | 253.12 | | uki | 325.00 | | erikalui | 350.00 | | Losvienleg | 400.00 | | gizmoh | 411.00 | | CryptoChaser | 423.00 | | litedoge | 444.00 | | panjul07 | 444.44 | | Febo | 463.76 | | snatchmonkey | 475.00 | | 1Referee | 520.00 | | Q7 | 524.00 | | 100x | 565.00 | | Katsou | 604.53 | | cakir | 613.00 | | randy8777 | 650.00 | | bitebits | 666.00 | | futureofbitcoin | 668.83 | | sandy47bt | 817.14 | | btcbug | 843.00 | | Grand_Voyageur | 860.65 | | Amph | 899.70 | | bugmenot | 990.00 | | unsoindovo | 1,000.00 | | pereira4 | 1,192.25 | | BitmoreCoin | 1,210.00 | | WeltMaster | 1,337.69 | | BTCat | 1,426.00 | | BitBOOM | 1,512.00 | | TQMA | 1,719.00 | | Miz4r | 1,852.49 | | Kexkey | 2,088.00 | | ensurance982 | 2,300.00 | | LOBSTER | 2,849.00 | | nicked | 3,000.00 | | macsga | 3,133.70 | | Odalv | 3,150.00 | | Chainsaw | 4,120.16 | | ssmc2 | 4,232.76 | | lunarboy | 5,432.10 | | ejinte | 7,777.00 | | Bitcoiner_cph | 10,483.98 | | americanpegasus | 19,732.00 | | agentcash | 187,518.80 |
| Stats_____________ | | | Response Count: | 60 | | Median: | $608.77 | | Geometric Mean: | $494.91 | | Believe new high: | 33% | | Believe rangebound: | 42% | | Believe new low: | 25% |
edit: updated with latest figures |
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The change in perceptions is quite telling: | | | 2014 | 2015 | | Believe | in | new ATH: | 82% | 32% | | Believe | in | post-bubble low: | 6% | 27% |
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You mean after all those broken promised bottoms at $800 $600 $400 $300 $200 given, you are now sure $200 is the "real" bottom again?
Let's see how you get this one wrong again
Well, you can discount me from the broken-promises club. I've never said anything was certain, and actually have been bearish since the bubble burst. Long-term momentum is showing a shift now, at a price where it makes sense. It might yet reverse, but you might also be quite surprised by the results if it doesn't... |
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Given the pattern from last year's competition, $43*.  (Let's hope you guys are a tad more accurate this time!) *Updated for new results. |
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Pretty funny how everybody was drifting on a velvety wave of optimism. The median response was about 14 times the actual value on 1st April. p.s. the Fonz is too cool for you all.  |
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One thing I learnt about bitcoin being with the market for last two year, even if I am not a market guy, is that nothing is certain about it's price. People from September 2013 didn't realize that it would peak that high. And people of Feb 2014 didn't think it would drop so low. So anything is possible. Well, not everybody. September was too early, but once we hit 200 in October some of us saw what was coming. Wachtwoord pretty much nailed it. By Feb the bubble burst was clear. SWIM sold out in December at just over $1000 (the double-top with the falling momentum was a great sign to get out). |
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Things were also looking like this back at the beginning of February and we did a slow but surprise breakout there, as well. I think chances are still quite good that this is "it"
Indeed. I know what I've been doing these last few months, and selling isn't it. There's a definite and growing possibility that the tide has turned. |
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Not so. Everything is not possible. For a ridiculous example, if you place a limit order to purchase 21,000,000 Bitcoins at $100 per coin, tell me how price could ever drop below $100? The exchange with your order gets hacked  |
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$10 million is the price of a decent house here in Silicon Valley. It's not that much these days. I would consider that the minimum savings for a middle class retirement today. I'm forever losing a million dollars down the back of the sofa, so no need to try and explain to me. |
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What you fail to realize is the lower the price gets, the easier it is to buy the market up. Let's say there are 100,000 coins sitting on exchanges ready to be dumped at market price. (Yes, silly, but let's look at this extreme case.) If I jump in at $100 per coin with a limit order, I can absorb the entirety of the market dump all by myself with just $10 million, and end up 100,000 coins wealthier with a market that has no more ammunition to sell.
Just $10 mil. The kind of money a discerning gentleman uses each week as toilet paper. |
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I mean, why the fuck would you want to pay premium for individually delivered detergent bottles like this? the supply chain management guys would continually optimize for ideal time/money efficiency. I don't know if you've ever attended a lecture or read anything by them, but it's actually pretty high level and intense stuff. Well, it's a shame we have an incredibly inefficient delivery network then, because whatever saving this entails will be consumed by the guy who has to deliver my package - unless my washing machine plans to do my weekly shopping for me, although it's more likely it will get hacked and start gambling its bitcoins on SatoshiDice. |
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Guys, that is the prediction from the end of 2013. He seemed to nail that one, but since then things changed a bit already.
Nailed it? Sure, if not hitting a barn door is nailing it. His level of accuracy is about par with the six-figure crew. |
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With all good news from big companies investing in Blockchain technology I think it will be possible. Look at these examples from IBM and Samsung: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1XOPIqyP7AWhen a washing machine needs detergent, the washing machine can buy it automatically for you, and pay it with Bitcoins. Washing machines, refrigerators who can restock automatically, all of it could be possible in the (near) future. Then ordinary people need Bitcoins to pay for it... I'd much rather have a robotic maid that took my dirty laundry to said washing machine. This by contract sounds like a really dumb idea. I mean, why the fuck would you want to pay premium for individually delivered detergent bottles like this? |
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So these guys had multisig but didn't use it, and kept significant BTC in the hands of known card fraudsters... yeah, that sounds sensible.
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renting 3 hookers a day would cost more so i may as well keep her ......  If you need 3 hookers to replace her, I think she's a keeper. Ain't no luvin like the sweet love of a banana skin. Also provides a tasty treat to wedge in your mouth as well. |
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That's highly interesting, but also something I was already assuming. The term may indeed be too nerdy, geeky, or whatever. But that may just be a perception we have these days and it could change if people around Silicon Valley indeed invest more.
I believe that the image problem is less about it being too geeky or technically complex and more about the scams, hacks, failed exchanges and all the other negative associations with things like "the dark (evil) web" and so on. These have provided the media with sensational bitcoin stories in the past. All sorts of negative associations have been made and reinforced: use of terms like "the shadow currency", repeated assertions of it's use (or potential use) for money laundering... the lack of regulation (absence of a benevolent overseer) etcetc. I've always thought it was just a darn goofy sounding name. Whenever I vocalise it, I cringe a little inside. My tongue reaches places in my mouth where I feel it isn't welcome. It also sounds something like the currency Flanimals would use. |
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We're on cue for this being the longest bull run since the bear market began in 2013. Previously, the longest period was 53 days. We're now on day 55 since 14-Jan. If we break the Coinbase peak circa 310, it will be confirmed.
edit: 53 days not 56.
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