The Hussman stuff on QE is pretty damning - a good read - will go look through some of those postings over the weekend. Thanks for the tip and btw... I always read your well-crafted posts. I don't always agree, but I do admire the tight and concise composition, plus I occasionally learn something too. |
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Must confess I wish I bought and kept some coins from yesterday  So you really didn't buy last night, Seleme...? I know you said you were sitting out til it looked like a definite upswing, but coins at sub 350 was very cheap. I was buying from as soon as went under 380 all the way down - I admit, I was looking at the screen through my fingers a little, like some kid watching a horror film - but you didn't buy any under 400...? Trading the alts instead? |
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How come nobody is exited about cheap coins? I don't see ANY greed.
I am starting to buy... maybe too early of course, but will increase incrementally if/when it goes lower. It is starting to look cheap to me. |
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Also, when did proudhon and rpietlila show back up?
Just in time for the party? They are making a near futile attempt to defend $480. Jawboning won't cut it. Gox and China are not additive downward forces. They are multiplicative. The only known support level is at the pre-China ATH @ $266. I can't sleep with open buy orders much higher than that until I get new information. If you want to take coins from us early adopters, wait until we can't hold out any longer. We have had negative income flows for four months. Embrace the pain. I am under average buy - but feeling pretty calm. Yes, of course I have buys set under 400 already, but I don't see 266 personally. Coins are too cheap, volume will come in way before that IMO. I read you, though and I have no crystal ball. Only fiat waiting for more coins and popcorn while I watch the show. |
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We aren't going to reverse until a good chunk of leverage long positions of $15 million @ finex are purged.
Too many empty pocket traders are hoping right now..
I was already purged. I was one of them and I lost closing my leveraged long@ $478. I paid the tuition, lost a bundle and saved my ass. But I also know that Bitfinex doesn't lead this market. The longer price drags on like this, the more likely this is another dead cat bounce. No volume. Leveraging short right now could be lucrative. Risky. Not for me, fiat ready to buy more, but leveraged short could be painful - I for one am not brave enough. |
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Also, when did proudhon and rpietlila show back up?
Just in time for the party? |
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The bank deposit thing I dont think is a massive problem. I can have a wire from my account and on Stamp in a couple of hours most of the time.
wow that's fast. sepa or wire transfer? SEPA from the UK. Obviously its not a couple hours 24/7 but if I make the payment on a morning around 9 I normally have it by half 11 ish. I haven't tried sepa in from uk - do you get the bank to send euros or send GBP via sepa...? I haven't actually put fiat in for a long while, but I do use stamp so I would welcome 'best practice' advice. I send Euros but Im not sure how much difference that would make to time taken, have done a dozen SEPA's and only one was delayed and that was the time around beggining of november when stamp had their bank Issues and we had to wait a few days. Thanks - I have been lazy and just used Speedybitcoin (great help if you need to react quickly BTW) instant your cash hits them, the BTC is sent. But of course they take a cut... Now I think it is time to get some backup fiat in ready for whatever may transpire... Cheers  |
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The bank deposit thing I dont think is a massive problem. I can have a wire from my account and on Stamp in a couple of hours most of the time.
wow that's fast. sepa or wire transfer? SEPA from the UK. Obviously its not a couple hours 24/7 but if I make the payment on a morning around 9 I normally have it by half 11 ish. I haven't tried sepa in from uk - do you get the bank to send euros or send GBP via sepa...? I haven't actually put fiat in for a long while, but I do use stamp so I would welcome 'best practice' advice. |
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Whenever i think this thread can't get any more retarded it does. The fact that so many people using large amounts of money to buy/sell bitcoins that don't understand the concept of EV is mind-blowing.
Explain the bare essence then. By EV, I expect you mean expected value? I see various forms of dollar cost averaging going on with various expectations that Bitcoin will acquire some additional value based on taking market share from remittances, store of value, currencies and hedging against irresponsible monetary policies. There are other motivations and theories as well, including various forms of speculation on price direction based on charts and lines. Any special perspective or insight you can drop upon us cave dwellers? It could also be exposed value. The fact that so many people using seldom used, unexplained abbreviations in this thread, is mind-blowing. Or even Enterprise Value (stocks and shares term for valuing a company in preference to simple market cap) That said - I don't see how any of these apply to BTC value.... |
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Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat
Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market. I.e. never. But it does form an important part of a balanced algo. The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work. Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino. Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet. A Martingale strategy works, so long as the win amount is equal to the bet and the odds are 50/50. With a 1 dollar bet, you are very likely to win your 1 back dollar bet back before you get anywhere near $1000. If the odds are 50/50, then you would have to lose 7 times in a row, to reach into the $100 arena... highly unlikely if the odds truly are 50/50.. the trick in that regard is making sure that you do NOT miscalculate the odds. A Martingale strategy does NOT work. If you do the math, you will find you will lose money long-term unless you have infinite funds and no betting limits. Yes, it's unlikely that you will lose 10 times in a row or whatever, but when you do you are wiped out for an enormous amount of money, and it's that scenario which makes you lose money on the strategy long-term. You have to keep doubling and betting until you win. It is mathematically proven at least to be a break even strategy as long as the odds are exactly 50/50 like flipping a coin or black and red on a roulette wheel... so long as there are NO betting limitations. Your point is that a guy would run out of money sooner or later, but overall it is at least a break even strategy... and pretty unlikely that a guy or gal would lose more than 10 times in a row. You incorporated a 10 time betting limit into your description.. which is NOT part of the theory.. and pretty unlikely.. less than 1 in a 1,000 chance of losing 10 times in a row (actually it is a 1 in 1,024.00262 chance of losing that many times in a row)... Anyhow, if we use the $1 scenario, the odds are that you would have won more than a thousand by the time you lose 10 in a row.... which if you lose 10 in a row, you are invested $1,023 at that point in time. If you lose one more time (11 times), then you are invested $2039, (1/2048.00524 chance). Anyhow.. sooner or later, you are going to win back your dollar, so long as you keep doubling your bet each time.. it's inevitable.. so long as the odds are 50/50. Of course, if you do reach that unlucky losing streak of 10 in a row, then you gotta find the capital from somewhere to keep betting and doubling the bet again.. otherwise you will lock in your losses. The problem, that I already mentioned, is that sometimes peeps will misunderstand or misread the odds or they will accept a betting limit or will deviate from the exact application of doubling the bet each time that you lose, until you win.. After you win, then you start over at $1 again. Of course, if you were going to start out with $10 or $100, then you would need 10x or 100x more capital, in the event you entered a long losing streak... but it is almost guaranteed that you will NOT lose 10 times in a row, unless the odds really are NOT 50/50. Well I am assuming you are talking about in a casino, since nobody in their right mind is going to let you keep doubling your bet on something until you win when the bet is break even. Martingales used in casinos lose just as much as any other strategy, but a lot quicker because you are often risking a lot more money per bet by the end of it. I said 10x because, starting at $1 (which most casinos won't even let you do), after about 8-10 losses you will hit the betting limit. Assuming you are playing true 50-50's, with infinite bankroll and no betting limits, yes you will break even. But you will also break even betting $5 each time in that scenario, so why go bonkers with doubling your bet? As for roulette, you DO realize that that is not a 50-50, right? The 0 (and sometimes 00) screw your odds and give the casino their edge on that bet. It has to be a TRUE 50-50 to break even, and if it's a true 50-50 (and even money bets as well), you will break even long term no matter what. Casinos also make money (even on close to even odds) because of one more thing. If you lose your stash, due to a run of bad luck - you can no longer bet. If you start winning, you tend to keep going... It is human nature to not stop when you are winning but you have to once you have lost your stake. This is why the casinos can play close to evens for house games; the roulette wheel zero is an edge that chips away in their favour, but the simple fact of people not stopping when they're winning is equally fortuitous for them. |
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I don't think 'seasoned traders' make a claim about the market reversing every couple of hours....please don't patronise me. Well I dont claim a reversal every few hours. but reversals happen over days.... we can joke all day long. I am a seasoned trader and I don't need confirmation I've just seen your profile, if you really are only a 21 year old Kiwi then trust me - you are not a seasoned trader, nor an expert in anything, especially not human psychology as you claim. I mention Kiwi because, while I love Auckland but prefer Wellington, your country is somewhat isolated and your values and attitudes somewhat different from those in say NY or London. But your age would explain your urge for validation here. Get over yourself. Ive spent five years at university and 4 years trading markets. Im pretty darn successful too. I am a seasoned trader. Like I said, I dont need your judgement. A kiwi split the atom. it is a strength to separate yourself from the crowd. the fact that I have different values and attitudes than in say NY or London is a strength. And why are you so Eurocentric? the chinese are kings of the world if there are any. The more I read what you have written there the more BS I see. I never said I was an expert in Human psychology. Of coarse I'm here to try validate things, this is a frieakin speculation forum. you have no idea if I am not an expert at anything. I have a masters degree. Ill have you know that Auckland where I live is a metting ground for cultures all around the world. I have seen and met more than poms and yankees. So, you are not 21 as you state. I apologize re. the psychology...its just you say everything with such certainty I assumed you are expert in everything. The only thing I'm sure of "you sir, are no Ernest Rutherford". But if you want to argue with a researcher: 13th Feb
I cashed out at 750.... gonna buy at 380, I think 300 is right on the mark but dont count on it!!
1st March
we will likely be around 500-700 for a long time.
3rd March
this is a critical point..... Im warming up to the prospect of 'to da moon!'
7th MArch
bought at 100, sold at 750, bought at 500, sold at 650, price now = 620......
16th March
I bought at $120, purely speculative, held, and sold at 750 after the AHT, bought at 450 - 500, and I am day trading the volatility now. soon I will return to hibernation as a long term trader and wait for the moon.
18th MArch
I think it will go to 580 if not 560 according to EW analysis. but best not be too greedy, 594 is a good price fo sho. Grin
28th March
Consider 465 a very significant bottom.
29th March
everyone take one last look at my witch craft before I throw some dice and the market goes as I please.
and still hodling long from 475
predicts market will rise to 3400CNY using EW - market stays flat then falls
2nd April
Huobi is showing a lot of strength. I expect 540 in 12 hours.
and
I have evidence that large investors are buying;
-Risto is buying (LOLing hard at this one)
3rd April
this could easily be the beginning of a $100 move. The Chinese customers will be going to bed. no more panic selling for the next 10 hours.
later…
China has awoken! today is the day of the BULL!
4th April
Ive been able to scrape together profit from calling 465, 435 and 425 bottoms.
later
ok bitcoin, now's your chance. go go go! fly!
Today
OMG I owe you one for this link!
cheers! (seasoned trader only today finds hypron.net LOL)
Im holding from $100 average.
Ive been following it since $2 and Ive been speculating since $80.
I appreciate modifying and changing your opinion is not a bad thing but you do seem to have an almost psychotic urge to post every thought that crosses your mind. The list of quotes above is neither comprehensive nor complete, just a random sample but you do contradict yourself quite often. I'm not trying to embarrass you but do this in the hope others are not taken in by your apparent 'competency'. I'll be taking your posts with a large grain of 'seasoning'. Nicely done, Nanobrain. A little of the hubris around here needs to find its nemesis on occasion. Of late I have just been mostly not posting but watching... |
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On stamp there are 115.98btc order all down the order book. In intervalls of 5$, so 69. I think this is one guy and he is biding for around 8000btc. Can somebody explain this to me.Why does he use always the same amount. So that people know that it is from one guy?
Easier to do it by making all the USD sums the same or all the BTC sums the same. He (or, possibly someone else with that same amount- no guarantee) has a 115.98btc ask as well, so they are probably just trying to flip for a quick profit. One alternative theory... as Bobby Lee suggested in a discussion at Coinsummit, it is a 'possible way' the exchange can make the order book look fatter than it is, and these coins all disappear as the price nears them. He was suggesting this is how dodgy exchanges boosted the books (and price). It was in response to questions about 'fake volume' in China. He said it was the reason you saw Litecoin drop to a dollar at one point recently. A market sell order dropped in and all the 'fake' coin buys under the price disappeared as they were nearly hit, meaning an apparently 'freak' crash happened (there were far less coins to sell into than it appeared). But of course, 'Western' exchanges would never do things like bolstering prices like that. |
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There's going to be some serious fallout from the NeoBee situation.
Danny has just made a statement and closed the official thread -- death threats against kids --- the BTC-space is going to look even more ugly.
I don't quite get whats happened over there with NeoBee, can you summarise? Only rumours so far - but something is up: http://www.binaryoptionswire.com/something-wrong-neo/ |
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We - there seem to be some buyers out there.
Sunday evening rise likely?
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"cheap coins" - another cultist term
Imagine you were selling bitcoin futures contracts. What would someone have to pay you now in return for your bitcoin a year from now? These coins are going up and you know it. You just don't know how much they're going to go down first. I think the term 'cheap coins' TERA is referring to is used by cult sellers anticipating much cheaper prices, rather than how I might use the use the phrase, these coins are cheap. the sentiment is, sell now and buy back some 'cheap coins' when the apocalypse comes. I believe the worst is over. I say the coins are cheap when its lower than my avg. buy in price. We all have a definition of 'cheap' coins. But every person here has a different one. And even each person varies that price constantly, according to their perception of many variable factors. Resistance occurs at levels where there is a majority consensus that that price has been reached. Markets don't care, they just are. I think that where this market's consensus is, is being discovered around about now. Enough of finding this bottom - we already have. For me sub-400 is way below consensus, so even if the market is manipulated to dip below this - the reaction will kick the price up way higher. I think no lower than 466 again (bar serious and disastrous news). Sentiment will grow in confidence and over time things will ramp up, recover from Gox, et al. Maybe not in the thousands yet - but 800+ inside 6-8 weeks is entirely plausible. |
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This is what goes passes for capitulation for me. I'm out of fiat. out of leverage. Might lose everything in a margin call. Pawn shops are closed and I just bet the mortgage money. I'm just a spectator now. Good luck, Gentleman. I did everything I could.
If it is serious - good luck. Really, Billjoeallen. I am $100 + under average buy now - so, I am buying a few in for fiat to lower the average - but not with much relish. If it goes a whole lot lower then I will be looking back at a hell of a lot of time in Bitcoinland with only an increasing loss to show - and it will look like a long way up again. Time for a rethink about how I spend my precious time, perhaps! |
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Good bit of research. Confirms what most people suspected: Quote 6 Conclusion The transaction malleability problem is real and should be considered when im- plementing Bitcoin clients. However, while MtGox claimed to have lost 850,000 bitcoins due to malleability attacks, we merely observed a total of 302,000 bit- coins ever being involved in malleability attacks. Of these, only 1,811 bitcoins were in attacks before MtGox stopped users from withdrawing bitcoins. Even more, 78.64% of these attacks were ineffective. As such, barely 386 bitcoins could have been stolen using malleability attacks from MtGox or from other businesses. Even if all of these attacks were targeted against MtGox, MtGox needs to explain the whereabouts of 849,600 bitcoins. /Quote I am not sure Gox ever claimed malleability lost ALL the coins, but at least it is not possible malleability was significant. |
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Does the train make a beeping sound when it backs up?
You mean like the one it's making now..? |
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I'm usually fairly pessimistic but now there's a lot more support on the buy side than sell. Really don't think we'll break 540 anytime soon
Mark my words. We'll be back above $580 before the weekend is over. There will be a minimum $40/BTC bounce off the lows. Bargain hunters may not even get a full Saturday. I'm buying now and keeping just a little fiat handy in case it goes lower first. I've seen this happen too many times. I didn't get the timing perfect, but I'm calling this a win. Sure as hell made me money! Even a broken clock is right twice a day . That's with a binary outcome (right or wrong). I called a $40 bounce minimum and it bounced $45. I got the direction and the amount. Nobody has beaten my record. ... Even if he was way down the line when they were dishing out 'humility'  |
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