Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chromosoma]

Dive! Dive!

[adamstgBit]

http://youtu.be/uif9SEchydU

Disturbed Land Of Confusion

[adamstgBit]

Dive! Dive!

pretty sure your alts aren't going to buy you more coins tomorrow.

[adamstgBit]

finding it exceedingly difficult not to post random gifs of trains and rockets.

[chromosoma]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ays3e5HsZk

[nanobrain]

So, I'm noticing a pattern here.

Blip of volume = great excitement, talk of trains, rockets and 'da moon'
BTC rises $10 to $20
Everyone here proclaims "this is it" and "confirmed"
BTC sinks back $10 to $20
Everyone here conveniently forgets what has happened and blames Chinese/Russians/IRS/bears/aliens/JorgeStolfi until next blip.

This sounds as much fun as watching rugby.

 

I hear you. we are joking around. but there is some genuine excitement among the seasoned traders at the moment. this is one of the best signals in months.

I don't think 'seasoned traders' make a claim about the market reversing every couple of hours....please don't patronise me.

[chessnut]

I don't think 'seasoned traders' make a claim about the market reversing every couple of hours....please don't patronise me.

Well I dont claim a reversal every few hours. but reversals happen over days.... we can joke all day long.

I am a seasoned trader and I dont need confirmation  

[nanobrain]

finding it exceedingly difficult not to post random gifs of trains and rockets.

Ohhh Adam...you are as wonderfully endearing as ever.

How are things (been locked up lately ) ....I hope you are lavishing your wife with lots of gifts from your BTC riches

[adamstgBit]

finding it exceedingly difficult not to post random gifs of trains and rockets.

Ohhh Adam...you are as wonderfully endearing as ever.

How are things (been locked up lately ) ....I hope you are lavishing your wife with lots of gifts from your BTC riches

things are good

no not lately

yup shes happy. (i should probably go to bed now.....)

[chromosoma]

The artificial buy wall at 455 Dollar of 655 BTC  suddenly disappeared, now the price will fall;)

[JorgeStolfi]

About the China situation, no good or bad news should break out until Monday Apr/07 01:00 UTC at least.  So the market should behave "normally" over the weekend.

Most Chinese exchanges reported that their banks did not yet see reason to close their accounts.  This may give Chinese traders confidence that bank account transfers will continue to work indefinitely for CNY deposits and withdrawals, even after April 15.  This may result in the price rising  towards the pre-rumor levels (3000--3500 CNY, 500--580 USD).

It has been reported that two exchanges, BTC38 and FXBTC, did receive such account closure notices from their banks. However that information may be inaccurate, or those banks may have decided to close the accounts because of the Caixin article, not by  order of the PBoC.

On the other hand, the closing of CNY deposit channels using 3rd party payment processors (e.g. to recharge "top-up" cards issued by the exchanges) was confirmed.  At Huobi, it seems that these 3rd party channels will be closed as of today (saturday).  So the small rally now under way may be due to clients emptying their top-up cards into their Huobi accounts.

[FUD]
On the other hand, there has been no definitive denial yet of the bank part of the Caixin article.   It is still possible that the bank accounts will be closed for both deposits and withdrawals on or before April 15.  After all, the article was correct about the 3rd party channels.

IIRC, the article did not mention a deadline for blocking deposits.  So perhaps the banks are just taking their time (which means more profits for them), but will indeed block deposits by April 15.  They may, or may not, give advance warning, and may, or may not, block deposits a few days before blocking withdrawals.

By the way, if the bank accounts are to be closed, it means that the PBoC considered their use for bitcoin trading "bad".  Normally, a government agency (anywhere) that wants to stop some "bad" activity will not give advance notice of its actions.  Why would they want to warn the guy who intended to do that "bad" thing -- so that he can rush to do it before the deadline?

Perhaps the report was leaked to Caixin as a way to warn the exchange clients without officially warning them.   Closing the accounts without any warning, as the reasoning above would require, would have left thousands or people very angry, and would have created some bad press for them.

Perhaps the exchanges negotiated a grace period with the banks.  Besides allowing them to  survive for another week, it may give them and their friends enough time to unload their private BTC holdings at a favorable price, while new money may still get in.

In any case, I imagine that the closure of the 3rd party channels will continue to pull the prices down, even after Apr/15, and to push cheap coins off China and into the Western exchanges by arbitrage.
[/FUD]

[MinermanNC]

http://youtu.be/uif9SEchydU

Disturbed Land Of Confusion

I know that is one bad jam!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Just wondering, if you are trading on Bitstamp etc,  do you need to wait for confirmation (n-blocks)   before you can trade bough bitcoins?
Or are tthey instantly available, like with altcoins trading?

Do you mean coins that you just bought at the same exchange? They should be available instantly for trading.
Or do you mean coins that you brought into the exchange by BTC deposit? Those should require confirmations, I suppose.

[JorgeStolfi]

SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust (SMBIT) has enabled liquidation of its shares, "on a limited basis", it seems:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.msg3620842#msg3620842

Presumably only the earliest investors (who entered in September 2013) are being allowed to liquidate.  They bought shares (fixed at 0.1 BTC each) at ~13$, are liquidating now at ~45$.  That is ~245% return over investment in 6 months, or ~1100% per year.

On the other hand, all investors who entered after November 15 currently have lost money.  Many of them lost more than ~40%, or ~64% per year.

[octaft]

Two pages of "to da moon" from a relatively small rise, and there are people who think the sentiment is unbelievably bearish. Whether it goes up or not, sentiment is not as bearish as bulls think.

[JorgeStolfi]

Two pages of "to da moon" from a relatively small rise, and there are people who think the sentiment is unbelievably bearish. Whether it goes up or not, sentiment is not as bearish as bulls think.

"Sentiment" may mean several things, including "wish", "hope", or "estimate".  It is not good to confuse them.

[Erdogan]

Just wondering, if you are trading on Bitstamp etc,  do you need to wait for confirmation (n-blocks)   before you can trade bough bitcoins?
Or are tthey instantly available, like with altcoins trading?

yes its "like altcoins trading"

why the F were you trading alts tho?

dont you know china is banning bitcoin?

I think they are banning virtual currencies, something which does not exist.

[chessnut]

Two pages of "to da moon" from a relatively small rise, and there are people who think the sentiment is unbelievably bearish. Whether it goes up or not, sentiment is not as bearish as bulls think.

if your pool of data is this forum only, maybe it is 50/50.

but the tell tale measure of sentiment is how many bulls have given up and left. this forum is abandoned, but there will always be some left who have realistic expectations.

it's not only about positioning. we could all be bullish and we would all win if we were all betting on sound fundamentals. but when everyone starts to 'feel' bearish, with no better reason than the trend, that is the key.

[chessnut]

"Sentiment" may mean several things, including "wish", "hope", or "estimate".  It is not good to confuse them.

+1