On other news, following the China motif, EU and now US stocks are plummeting. It seems we're in for a hell of a month gentlemen. I wonder how this will be interpreted for BTC... The Dow Jones Industrial Average started off the month with a triple-digit tumble Tuesday as investors fled risky assets such as global equities following a fresh set of weak Chinese economic data.
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to a three-year low, triggering a wide selloff in stocks across Asia as well as Europe.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-growth-fears-slam-us-stock-futures-sharply-lower-2015-09-01Move along, nothing to see here. I would think that at some point, BTC prices are going to diverge from the various mainstream stock prices and the various mainstream fiats to concretely establish it to be a better store of value because it remains much more difficult to manipulate in the sense of its fixed quantity. Really, if you review BTC's prices since the beginning of this calendar year, for the most part, the price has been bouncing around between $220 and $290 for a large majority of the time, with a few outbursts outside of that price range. Surely, the negative price pressures of the past few weeks causes one to wonder whether there is going to be another push towards the lower $200s, while at the same time, BTC prices have NOT spent too much time below $220 in the past 8 months, and really the previous time that BTC prices were below $220 was October 2013... and in April 2013 - and at those times (in 2013), BTC was experiencing all time highs - in other words BTC prices that had never previously been seen... So, up or down, that is the ever present question? And, what is the correlation, if any, with various fiat systems? Surely, some fiat assets are better retainers of value than others, during times of crises (such as real property) - however, if various fiat systems are experiencing pending crises of confidence, it should be a good thing to obtain and retain some hedge within various crypto systems (with BTC remaining in the top of the heap of crypto). In the last couple of weeks, I kept thinking that there may be another push towards $210-ish for BTC and possibly even a bit lower - maybe testing the $200 resistance point... but in the last few days, the BTC bulls have been able to beat back the BTC bears to defend prices remaining above $225..... with ongoing issues concerning the value of other mainstream investments, maybe we are going to witness the opposite correlation, and we won't see any further tests of $200? |
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You seem much too sensitive, if you are understanding my prior response posts to be a name calling rants.
In my earlier posts, I seem to be for the large part responding substantively to various points that you were making, and characterizing them as inadequate in a variety of respects, and to agree with you that your thinking seems to be much too simplistic if you believe that the main factors in determining direction of a market is its most recent price direction (even though sometimes you are going to be correct when you guess in that regard nonetheless, that analysis seems to miss a lot of nuances and a variety of factors that I referred to in my previous responses to you).
Too sensitive? Too emotional, too poor, too impatient, too ignorant. Yea who isn't? It seems that we are repeating ourselves here a lot.... Yes, there is NO need to become so emotional regarding your bitcoin investment(s), and if you are very emotional, then that likely means that you are overly invested and have failed and/or refused to adequately consider your strategy (whether it fails or NOT). Failure should NOT be an indication that it is time to become emotional, but instead maybe a time to reconsider your approach. I'm saying the investment I made is a bad one. .
I'm saying it from my perspective. If it's good for you. Then good.
Obviously you're doing something i'm not. I'm just spending my money in time the way I see best.
Whatever I am doing is just mental, rather than getting all worked up about it and in order to say that the whole thing is bad. Surely, actual investments are personal, but you are communicating on a public forum, and the extent to which you are all over the place in your logic is likely confusing for readers (to the extent that you may be genuine rather than merely trolling).
I wasn't even talking about whether the price goes up as a measure of good investment. While that was my first criterion, it's now changed.
My sole measure now is if I am making money, or at least breaking even.
So if I'm not. It's not a good investment.
FOR ME. For bitcoin and litecoin? I'm sure they're THRILLED i'm loosing money. It just means more for them.
The market as a whole is comprised of a whole lot of individuals, and you are correct to some extent that those who make money appreciate new investors because sometimes the irrational behavior of new investors, attempting to trade, makes it a bit easier for the more experienced investors (traders) to make money. I personally engage in very little trading because I find it so difficult to figure out the direction of the market... accordingly, my investment strategy has continued to be to merely buy and hold and continue to buy and hold and to hope in the long run, maybe several years, I will be sufficiently in the black in order to cash out all or part...or at least to be able to make withdrawals on an ongoing basis, so long as the asset continues to hold value. Frankly I got into this not really knowing WTF I was doing. I'm just trying to go forward making mistakes, while I try to correct for them.
At first I didn't even know about longs and shorts. I traded at ANX.
I didn't know you could make money when the price is going down.
After I lost 65% on just buying litecoin with my money. (right before coming a inch of breaking even)
I figured I could try using leverage. So I made some money and then the price went down again.
Then I tried shorting. Made some then the price went up.
It's just splitting me apart. So i'm willing to pay for that, and accept the consequences.
If me and crypto are incompatible, I can accept that. I've learned a few things about trading in the mean time. I could have wasted the money on a DJ system or something. Probably wouldn't have learned anything.
There is NOTHING wrong with NOT knowing much of anything, so long as we attempt to learn lessons from our mistakes. For example, let's say that you had $1000 that you could invest; however, if you recognize that you did NOT really know much of anything about bitcoin or trading etc etc, then you probably should have allocated less than $100 towards learning.. that way you would NOT have become overly invested or desperate when your trades were NOT going as you had planned.. and then you seemed to have been putting all your eggs in the basket and hoping for good luck... sometimes that good luck may happen, but if it does NOT happen, then you are left considering your backup plan and whether you learned anything from the situation or if you are merely going to employ, again, the same strategy because you are either desperate or greedy.... In other words, if you are acknowledging your lack of experience and lack of knowledge, then you should NOT be investing very much during your learning process... because learning should NOT have to cost so much as long as you are reflective upon your actions and really attempting to learn from your experiences... |
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You are ridiculous and coming off as a bit trollish or at least disingenuous.
You make a whole bunch of unsubstantiated generalizations regarding Bitcoin in general and it's possible future market performance, in part seeming to be based on your bad investment luck and what appears to be considerable deficiencies in your outlook and expectations
How else do you measure an investment? Would you invest more money into something that has cost you money? Maybe i'm simple minded. But if it's supposed to make you money, and instead it burns all of it up. Maybe just maybe it's not a good investment. But I've been waiting for this thing since the idea of paypal came out. I didn't really know of it until 2014. The idea of replacing the banks entirely appeals to me. That is the reason I like it. Trading isn't necessary if you want to use bitcoin. But then again the world prefers credit cards and that requires an institution all over again, taking a fee on every time you spend your money. You can measure an investment through a variety of perspectives and indicators, and in the end each of us has to choose for himself/herself regarding what to measure and whether we recognize value in making an investment, in part based on whether we perceive potential benefits outweighing potential risks. Merely because you have lost money in a particular investment over the past about 18 months does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that the asset itself is bad or that it will continue from here on to go down in market price. Also, markwt price is also not necessarily a measure of value, except for at that particular point in time reflecting how much that people are willing to pay for it. Yes, you do come off as either simple minded or else someone who is trolling. Surely, there are a lot of potential use cases for Bitcoin, and your attempt to summarize them while making broad comparisons and contrasts barely scratches the surface of various ways in which Bitcoin can be used and currently some of such uses have been implemented (while evolving) and other uses will quite likely be further developed in the future. Hm... I simply have no need for a investment that is loosing me money. In that case it's a bad investment. But can't help but miss the productive use of time or forum space in your reply on this topic. Name calling, and egotistical aggression simply escapes me as a valuable commodity. I think the notion is pretty simple, have you been making money? Then it's good. Have you been loosing money. Then stop investing in it. You wanna overcomplicate things beyond that... and call me names, I can't help but pity you. You seem much too sensitive, if you are understanding my prior response posts to be a name calling rants. In my earlier posts, I seem to be for the large part responding substantively to various points that you were making, and characterizing them as inadequate in a variety of respects, and to agree with you that your thinking seems to be much too simplistic if you believe that the main factors in determining direction of a market is its most recent price direction (even though sometimes you are going to be correct when you guess in that regard nonetheless, that analysis seems to miss a lot of nuances and a variety of factors that I referred to in my previous responses to you). |
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You are ridiculous and coming off as a bit trollish or at least disingenuous.
You make a whole bunch of unsubstantiated generalizations regarding Bitcoin in general and it's possible future market performance, in part seeming to be based on your bad investment luck and what appears to be considerable deficiencies in your outlook and expectations
How else do you measure an investment? Would you invest more money into something that has cost you money? Maybe i'm simple minded. But if it's supposed to make you money, and instead it burns all of it up. Maybe just maybe it's not a good investment. But I've been waiting for this thing since the idea of paypal came out. I didn't really know of it until 2014. The idea of replacing the banks entirely appeals to me. That is the reason I like it. Trading isn't necessary if you want to use bitcoin. But then again the world prefers credit cards and that requires an institution all over again, taking a fee on every time you spend your money. You can measure an investment through a variety of perspectives and indicators, and in the end each of us has to choose for himself/herself regarding what to measure and whether we recognize value in making an investment, in part based on whether we perceive potential benefits outweighing potential risks. Merely because you have lost money in a particular investment over the past about 18 months does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that the asset itself is bad or that it will continue from here on to go down in market price. Also, markwt price is also not necessarily a measure of value, except for at that particular point in time reflecting how much that people are willing to pay for it. Yes, you do come off as either simple minded or else someone who is trolling. Surely, there are a lot of potential use cases for Bitcoin, and your attempt to summarize them while making broad comparisons and contrasts barely scratches the surface of various ways in which Bitcoin can be used and currently some of such uses have been implemented (while evolving) and other uses will quite likely be further developed in the future. |
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YAY it's crashing and my long is still open. Thank god it's almost over.  if you are long, you want them to go up, right? Nah I've already decided crypto is a shit investment. Maybe long term holding works for some but if you want a day trading experience it's expensive. I'm not going to pull my money out though. I'd feel shame. I will give it every chance it to redeem itself. But I'm just ready for it to end. I want it to either die hard or give me my money back ASAP. I will continue to try to "make money" fight the good fight. But really i'm tired of this game. It just looks like a ponzi scheme to me. But before I was playing computer games, at least now i've gotten a new hobby to kill time. FYI I'm actually invested in Litecoin, I was making it not so bad back with bitcoin, and would have maybe broke even in fact, but I saw litecoin as a shortcut when it went up 4 dollars in a month. Now Litecoin does exactly what Bitcoin does, & is not going up like it used to. That litecoin boom was and still IS a ponzi scheme. Litecoin is the shitcoin. Don't fuck with it. But i'm a fighter so It's all or nothing for me. I'll gladly take nothing if only to move on with my life & stop wasting time circling my pathetic investment. lol. The value to me is having learned quite a bit about economics. Not everything, but allot more that I used to know. So i've gotten a good education, and I know the cryptocurrency thing is a dud, unless perhaps you're an experienced trader and know the market very well. There is quite a bit to learn and it's a 24/7 job. Some Chinese turds have my money and they control the market. Chinese are the most devious people on earth. They are cunning. I live in China now, it's a "me first" greed fest from what I can tell, but then my Chinese isn't so good. Otherwise they are not such bad people. But they want money and authority with a passion, it's a nationalistic thing and unconscious passion just like everyone else. Unless I can somehow reverse this death spiral, and which I will try, but highly doubt, I consider crypto a no-go, unless using it perhaps to transfer money in very tight periods of time. BUT It's simply not a good investment from a layman's perspective, because it's expensive and complicated to buy, you have to go through 2 or 3 middlemen just to get it, then 2 or 3 middlemen to use it. It also depreciates allot more than it appreciates. If for example I asked my boss to pay me in bitcoin i'd be in bigger straits than with fiat. It's just a stupid game / experiment to me. I'd never put in money I actually need to survive in this ridiculous ponzi scheme. But I liked the idea of Bitcoin. But I kinda agree with Snowden. It's obviously flawed. Death can be a relief. So either way i'm happy. I await my margin call... You are ridiculous and coming off as a bit trollish or at least disingenuous. You make a whole bunch of unsubstantiated generalizations regarding Bitcoin in general and it's possible future market performance, in part seeming to be based on your bad investment luck and what appears to be considerable deficiencies in your outlook and expectations |
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…technical mumbo-jumbo…
In other words, it may take several more weeks for CCMF, based on some kind of consensus... until then, maybe we are going to get another test of $200 and possibly into the $180s-ish... ? Hahaha sorry for polluting the Wall Observer thread with my tech talk. The problem is that our usual discussion thread for this type of thing (Gold Collapsing. Bitcoin UP) was locked by the Forum Administrators. Furthermore, my submissions to /r/bitcoin are all censored now. Since I've lost my two favourite outlets, my Bitcoin addiction is leaking into nearby threads... Well, I was attempting to take the opportunity for either you or others to chime in regarding a potential time line for consensus... maybe the best case scenario is a couple of more weeks.. and worse case scenario would be much longer. Regarding your technical topic, it seems that we talk about all things in this thread, so something technical about bitcoin seems a bit more related to the original topic as compared with some of our rants on religion, sex, politics and/or what the dog brought home for lunch...  |
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 Blockstream is leading the development of a block size increase with a number of upcoming BIPXXX release as I understand it. The Flexcap idea doesn't make sense to me. It seems Adam is trying to artificially make it more expensive for miners to publish large blocks. The reason this doesn't make sense to me is that even without a block size limit it would be more expensive for miners to publish large blocks due to the orphan cost. Why use "Flexcap" to simulate the natural supply and demand dynamics that already exist? The fact that larger blocks are more costly to produce is illustrated in Fig. 8 of this paper:  As an example, in the absence of a block size limit, it would cost a miner approximately 100 BTC on average to publish a 128 MB block, assuming a propagation impedance of 7.5 sec / MB. In a discussion with a 0.5% miner, Adam recently said: "Now if there is an excess of supply, price falls, ergo fees will drop to zero basically."which is not true and demonstrates Adam's lack of understanding of the transaction fee market. If the block size is not constrained by the protocol, then the fee per kilobyte is governed largely by the orphan cost. The orphan cost is a function of the propagation impedance for block solutions. Raising the block size limit does not affect the propagation impedance. Fees per kilobyte would be largely unchanged; however, since more kilobytes of transactions could be included in a block, the total fees per block could grow higher. TL/DR: Flexcap reinvents the natural fee market. In other words, it may take several more weeks for CCMF, based on some kind of consensus... until then, maybe we are going to get another test of $200 and possibly into the $180s-ish... ? |
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Was trading stopped on Bitfinex again? There was a big gap when no trades occurred and all the other exchanges were trading during it. There have been so many gaps when trading was stopped on Bitfinex that I have come to expect it now.  the conversation with the bitfinex CTO yesterday night showed pretty clearly how incompetent they are. And as it seems there is no sign for it to get better anytime in the near future. I don't understand why there are still so many people still stay there and exposing their self of getting screwed once we get some volatility again... Many of us probably understand the concept NOT attributing malice to what could be attributed to incompetence; however, in this particular instance, there could well be a situation to camouflage malice by appearing incompetent. |
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Chart Buddy's got a choke hold on this thread lately. Are the walls that boring? I confess I have paid little attention to bitcoin over the summer. The walls are closing in, the walls are closing in. its a good thing I'm paper thin...
It's called observing the walls of chartbuddy... .. |
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increased volatility leads to many short term trading opportunities to be able to turn some profits in a short period of time, which also seems to take some patience, some predicting in the right direction some ability to set stop losses when the market goes in a direction opposite of what is predicted... I tend to NOT be too great at these kinds of shortterm trades (of BTC), because frequently when BTC prices begin to go up, I get nervous that I am going to be left behind and the price is Never going to come back down to the price in which I had sold, and accordingly, that nervousness causes me to put all my extra money back into BTC before I get an opportunity for the pay off... rather than attempting to wait for the downturn to come back in order that I can get paid off..
In any event, I am NOT 100% certain that $200 will be tested again, even though it seems pretty likely that there will be such a test before the BTC price returns upwards....
Also, most of the 4 or 5 volatility issues that I mentioned in my earlier post remain ongoing issues that have NOT yet been resolved in order to allow for certain upward BTC price movement….
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wasn't just laughing about the fact that people have been touting slush pool on the side of xt so it's funny to see them come out and say they wouldn't run it. Besides, If you can't see the difference between xt and just running big block patch on core that's your problem.
Well, I find it funny that people care about whether others run XT or Core; since that choice, besides being irrelevant, is practically invisible from the outside. Even the difference between the various BIP100s is not important at first. The fact that you are too dense or disingenuous to understand the differences between XT, Core & the various BIP1xx does not make it true Stolfi, go play outside won't you? You brain is in need of much needed fresh air. People here still falling for that Trolfi schilling? It seems he's absolutely intent on getting his face in the dictionary right next to the word "disingenuous". Real academics and scientists look for facts that challenge their assumptions. Trolfi's only here to point out things he thinks back his own agenda and, unless you press his buttons just right, he usually does such a fine job of pretending he's earnest, sincere and objective that people keep falling for it. In short, in spite of the fact that he occasionally points out something useful or says something vaguely intelligent, it's just camouflage for his nonsense and he can be safely ignored. He's such a proficient troll that he's quoted far more than he should be so you're unlikely to miss anything anyway.  Hahahahahahaha Right on about Trolfi... .. but I kind of gave up on the battle to call him out a while back... Regarding BTC pricing and recent volatility: I do get the sense that there is going to be at least one more test of $200 by people selling and dumping BTC, but you can never know for sure when it comes to bitcoin prices. Yesterday, btc prices seemed to have been crashing along with fiat money systems and stock market systems; however, I would have thought that BTC prices would have been somewhat opposite of those mainstream systems ... even though maybe in the short-term BTC prices will sometimes correlate rather than serving as an opposing indicator My sense is that in the past few days there have been several uncertainties contributing to volatility in BTC prices. 1) fork issue, 2) ongoing uncertainties with fiat/stock market systems, 3) bitfinex (BTC exchange located in Hong Kong) going down in the past couple of days several times for extended periods with crazy ass messages from Bitfinex administrators, 4) increases in Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) spreading by BTC market manipulators that seems to occur more frequently when BTC price momentum seems to be overall on a downward trajectory and 5) other unaccounted for unknowns (at least unknown by me at the moment).... |
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get your BTC out of bitfinex b4 it implodes! I expect full implosion in 3 hours so regretfully there is no time to save your fiat... you can however buy BTC with your fiat and get out that way. everyone remained calm and evacuate your riches from bitfinex.
Their customers can only buy Bitcoin to get out before the predicted implosion if trading gets unfrozen in the next three hours. What if Bitfinex refuses to unfreeze trading before then? According to their last tweet they are manually updating positions and balances with the trades. That must be a time consuming process. holy fuck! GTFO GTFO GTFO Red Alert GTFO YEP!!!!! Sounds really fishy if there are "adjustments" being made behind the scenes by humans rather than algorithms... |
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get your BTC out of bitfinex b4 it implodes! I expect full implosion in 3 hours so regretfully there is no time to save your fiat... you can however buy BTC with your fiat and get out that way. everyone remained calm and evacuate your riches from bitfinex.
hahahaha... causing panic, one speculation thread reader at a time...  |
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Don't beat yourself up if you lose for a few days, just think of the guys who bought at $1k+ and what they are thinking. LOL.
Yes, there were a lot of buyers in the $1k territory, including yours truly... |
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Everybody, get ready for a massive dump, because I just bought back in. Somehow what I do always makes the price do the opposite of what is good for me.
This is exactly how it works for me. I'm THE best counter indicator there is. Sold before the huge boom @ 240 back in early '13, kicked myself in the ass. Bought back in not that long ago around $300, sold at $250, bought at $230, sold at $215. Every time I buy, the market drops and every time I sell, the market goes up. I need to have 2 accounts so I can buy on one and sell on the other and be covered either way. Sounds like you are way too skitish and impatient... One potential partial solution is to have one account that is long term and just buy no more than you can afford to lose, and just wait it out.. in other words dont sell from that account until it reaches a certain predetermined point (more or less). On the other hand, you may be too bearish overall in your sentiments regarding BTC, even though it sounds as if you have been at it for at least two years. |
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Chill...
When "asking" became more trendy than "researching" on your own? I don't get it. One have to type more words to ask a question on a forum than to ask Google directly... Is it the "social" interaction I am not getting? ... I guess I answered my own question, if I posted/answered a question on this forum... GO Bitcoin! GO!  Fuck Yeah! I still don't know what to do.. buy a little or wait until tomorrow? |
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No. I believe Chinese got out of BTC or LTC to buy cheaper Chinese stocks... That doesn't make any sense. A quick look will tell you no one is buying Chinese stocks at the moment. I know we Bitcoiners like to catch falling knives but this China situation is something else... If someone is selling, someone is buying, even when the prices continue to go down... However, the price goes down when there is more coins selling than there are dollars willing to purchase them... and the opposite is true when the price is going up... In the end, we are stating the obvious, no? |
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The broader issue is still that society isn't waking up to the need for crypto. Sure there are problems with BTC but if people actually cared about using it then an altcoin would have shot to the moon by now to take its place, even if temporarily. If the power is held by exchanges, then miners then merchants and consumers are down the bottom, then we're probably at the complete opposite of where we need to be.
There are no consumers. Just speculators.
Very well said. Indeed the main issue with digital currencies is that there are no consumers. A few thousands users of this forum is the digital currency community worldwide - that's all. Sad and pathetic what Satoshi's remarkable innovation became - a speculative asset without connection to real world use cases. Consumption and various other uses are still being developed... these kinds of developments take time and infrastructure and creativity and incentives.. etc etc. .. that is, in part, why there is so much passion about the various bitcoin fork directions.. because many people want to develop around bitcoin and the future and whatever that may be.. |
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Wasteland is right, confidence is one major "selling point" of Bitcoin. This kiddy nerd fights are for sure not helping in that regard. It seems like several billions have been handed to some teenagers.
The nature of any politics results in squabbling that appears like kid fights, that is NOT so unusual as you are making it out to be... Yes, surely, there is an ongoing lack of confidence that drives the price downward, and fearmongerers that also contribute to negative sentiments... At the same time, we could go down either road and still be o.k.... our vehicle is still intact.... and mobile and capable of taking us in either direction, so long as we can agree to who is driving and whether we go 40mph or 80mph... and whether we pull the trailer or leave it at the campsite... |
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Down we go again.
I surely see the momentum.. yet I find it somewhat surprising that bitcoin seems to be gong down at a very similar, if NOT greater rate than fiat markets.. In other words, I would have expected BTC to move somewhat contrary to fiat markets... whether short term or long term... Fiat markets going down should indicate that BTC is going up... no? Do you think that after a nuclear blast people will rush to buy helmets? WTF? There has been a nuclear blast? When? Where? I thought that there was merely a loss of confidence and a bit of a dispute regarding which road to take, but we are still on the road anyhow, heading in the same overall direction, no? No. When it comes to money, folks want to be fairly confident that it won't be worthless tomorrow because a bunch of coders couldn't play nice together. Bitcoin's claim to fame was being "antifragile" (can you think of a goofier word?)--immune to the wacky doings of flaky humans. Now we learn that it just ain't so. That a couple of well-connected d00ds could devalue it into oblivion. Sure, many knew this from the git-go, but now we got empirical proof that even the faithful can't deny. That sort of thing doesn't inspire confidence. That still is NOT the equivalent of a nuclear blast, but maybe i will concede that we are experiencing some kind of a breakdown in our vehicle.. like we may have put too low of octane, and it is sputtering somewhat and not running too well while we are still having difficulties deciding which road to take and/or figuring out exactly who is the decision maker.. and we have to rely upon consensus, to some extent rather than just driving ourselves the way that we would prefer to go.. |
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