Everybody, if price is set properly.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.

I think it's almost certain that we'll be seeing a difficulty of at least 500 million in a month or two.

BFL is currently somewhere around half way through clearing their preorder backlog, which means they'll add up somewhere around 100M to the current difficulty plus another 100M from updated devices which are not formally considered preorders. Should KnC ship an equal amount of units, and it may as well end up being more, we're already at 500.

Add to that all other companies, and we'll be closer to a billion. Also, don't forget about BFL monarch and the fact that a majority of preorders likely transferred their orders to a new device. Early next year, we're probably close to 2 billion.

I'm guessing that will be the point where the rush will end and panic will ensue. The difficulty will most likely be a sigmoid function, and right now we're less than half way through. Depending on the preorders, the end result might be a marginally positive or even a negative income when you add up electricity costs. You can pretty much forget about making a positive ROI unless you get your units in the next couple of days.

Just to make clear, I'm a BFL customer (unfortunately), and it is obvious fact that I have a vested interest in discouraging other people from mining. However, since a large portion of the preorders are non-refundable, even if I somehow manage to sway those who can get their money back, we're still all screwed.

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........

Sweet let's get at least 3+ more(+ more, for safety nos.) and those Bitbet guys may have a screen to shout at.

That's a problem mostly for sellers/retailers and for particular miners.

Most of the new players have not amortised their original investment yet. Be it time or money. They will have to face higher pressure than those who already have their infrastructure in place and have been long running on profit.

Does me picking up count? I could possibly record a video, but I've just received an email to haul ass and catch a plane to Stockholm over the weekend.

so most if not all blades are going to be sold and franchised.

@ tarmi, empoweoqwj, ninjarobot
Guys, you are so wrong...
Look, did you remember last time we discussed blade production costs?
(actually that's a recurring topic, like many in this thread; I guess today is just the time for yet another iteration)

So we concluded that the mass production costs for a blade should be like around $20.  That's a reasonable price if you compare it to consumer products of similar complexity (like graphics cards).  Remember it's China and Friedcat's prices are likely very close to the lowest available anywhere in the world, at least now that the volume became so high.  Okay, let's be very pessimistic and assume a ceiling of 30$, that's around 0.25BTC by current prices, and with a reasonable profit margin it would still be more than acceptable for them to sell the blades for less than 0.5BTC.  Now please reconsider if people would buy these blades in November, if they sell for 0.5BTC!  I bet they would even in December, even if most the competitors actually deliver in time with their currently announced prices.

Also note that most competitors are less likely to have production costs as low as Friedcat (you know, Chinese are very social people; the "connections" are very valuable for them so a foreigner cannot get as good deal as a local).

Also note that 55nm chip of the same die area is much more expensive than 130 nm chip.  Of course, it's still cheaper per Gigahash, but not as much as per more powerful and efficient.  Let's say, if the 55nm chip is 8x as powerful as 130nm, then it's likely about twice as expensive per chip, so only 4x as cheap per GH.

So don't underestimate the good old 130nm, it will last at least until the end of the year.
(EDITED: "at least")

500TH will be ready on October not December, according to friedcat's update. Moreover, you've probably under estimated the speed of one product line (a product may takes 10s of minutes to be assembled, but to stay in a position for 1 minute is pretty slow and not likely happen in modern product line), let alone it's totally possible multiple product lines will be used.

It's up now, but no single block over night. Something was wrong and mine wasn't working, I guess...

What marketing BS?! We knew Bitfury was going to exist months back. I never doubted the guy. The biggest upset was Bitsyncom, most of their hashrate never appeared. Anyone who had orders elsewhere stand in a better position, well except BFL, but we already knew that, and I never wanted peeps to loose out with Bitsyncom. The funny thing is nothing changed about me this entire time, just because I took a bullet for visiting people have always had a hang-up on me having nefarious intention, which, and this is utterly hysterical for me, I never, ever have. I went for myself, and relayed what I saw. I then made some predictions based on common sense fact on KnC and some other companies, and have been write every time. So unless I have had a crystal ball, it's safe to say there's been a common sense method to my madness. Some peope here are just having a hard time accepting this. Props to Bitfury, I just would rather want to deal with the source and not intermediary distributors who are unknowns, I stated that at the time. In a week we'll know if KnC can deliver. Nothings changed, except the difficulty is currently no where near where it should be by now.

Lol, honestly that's not why i've been this active here.

...

The lack of decent competition is not KnC's fault

...

Of course. I was one of the first to make a decision based on the research I did before they sold. I'm also going to pick-up in person and write a part-three for fun. People wanted a trilogy, so it'll be more entertaining to have some solid product facts to write about.

Nope, and I never have been, and I've stated this numerous times. They have asked me to work for them, which I have agreed to, if they prove a working product. Integrity wise I will not prior, and neither have I ever told anyone to purchase from them, or anyone else until such time as they have a working product, at which point i'd be a fool not to. I've only ever shared my own decisions, research and reasoning, and been straight the entire time. Booyah.

Sorry, where is Yifu?

Tarmi, are you a KnC customer?

Nope they have till the other-side of the weekend. In the mean time, they look relaxed, happy, and unstressed.

From experience on this forum, most characters hide their faces, then when something goes wrong, or not to plan, they disappear, and hide. Do you get that impression from these photos? Or do you see a group of hardworking guys (and girl!) having fun? And most importantly getting shit done.

If they produce no hashing video by next Monday, then they need to speak up. If they have no hashing video by a week or two after, then it's time to get concerned.

Cool, but can you please upload a video for the rest of us wit respect to it's performance? This is meant to be a community here and we'd all love to see some real user evidence.

It takes moments to do, mining isn't really something that keeps you too busy to not share evidence in a community burnt so many times before.

Again I've never had a bad word to say about Bitfury, all the evidence seems to suggest he has been exemplary, there is just a lot of praise and very little I dependant visual proof.

haha please, you may be, but those demanding pics, and pics, and pics, and trolls out for blood, well now they got it. Two birds killed with one stone!!

I know we've been over this before.  There's basically 3 groups of people, imho.  Day 1 production, day 2, and everyone else.