I think we could, if Factom should be successful, compare it with Bitcoin regarding it's FCT-price-potential. With other words: It's possible that it will really skyrocket at one point and the latest ATH won't be even recognized any more - impossible to call a number. But in general it's also very different to Bitcoin and times have changed.

At one side: There are more competitors in general but also a lot more of attention - and it's all faster now. Bitcoin as a currency is intended to be something like a independent payment-system. Factom won't be that, but it could be, if successful, even bigger. Reason: The demand of systems to handle and secure all kinds of data is much bigger. And therefore it will be about a stable base-system. Milestones 1, 2, 3. And then it will be about the applications. In best case the Factom-team will offer applications for different use-cases but companies also could adopt Factom and build their own applications on top of it to use it. That's a lot of potential to "grow beyond itself". And it will be about that. All kinds of Companies could use the Factom-Api and build their own Applications. At the moment the market underestimates how important Milestone 2 will be. It's near but the price is dropping. We are in Crypto, so we had a nice peak because of the chinese exchange. But Milestone 2 is about the Api and the EC-Store. Milestone 2 will make Factom ready to be easily adopted if I understand it right.

And: If successful the Factoid-price would have some kind of backing. If people buy products with Bitcoin, the company sells those Bitcoin on the market. It's just a circle. The economic-system of Factom is different and in some ways more elegant. If it should be successful the price should be pretty stable at some point because of "demand vs. Inflation". It also could be that if successful there will be a long phase of an increasing price, just because the data-volume is doubling in short time-frames even in little companies. Speculation would anticipate all that and overdrive - good for traders and no problem for the system itself as long as the EC-price is fixed/stable.

But for some time the price will mostly be speculative and in some ways like an answer to the question how much potential the market will see in Factom regarding future EC-demand. If people believe it will be about millions of entrys, the price will fluctuate in a range where it already is. If people believe, it will be about billions or even trillions of entrys, there is no limit because it's open for all kinds of use-cases. Maybe the team itself doesn't even know all possibilities of use-cases. Could be unpredictable like the internet in it's early days.

If Factom should turn out as a system that gives the opportunity to reduce costs and to solve problems, a price is unpredictable but it would be a massive rise. And I don't have precise statistics but what I know: The costs and also the problems with all kinds of dynamic-data-processes are gigantic.

Yes, me too. I make a little bit swing-trading, but just for fun with small amounts. 95% I will hold because what I expect is: It will go down a little bit in times without much news, but it will skyrocket when there are good news - depending of the news of course .

And Factom hast a lot of potential for good news and it won't be possible to see it coming. 7 hours of sleep can be enough to miss the train, so I would feel uncertain not to be invested.  

Good prediction Nostradamus!


Edit: I mean the Christmas-prediction. Have some doubts about "PoSA in the next 6 weeks" ;-)

It's not that much. Just some examples about data and files:



Mastercard transactions:

 
MasterCard processes an average of 51 million authorizations of financial transactions a day, enabling consumers to make purchases instantly, anytime, almost anywhere, in both the virtual and real worlds.
https://www.mastercard.com/us/company/en/docs/092408MasterCardFAQ.pdf

 

VISA:

Process 300 million transactions a day without going crazy
http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/decision-central/process-300-million-transactions-a-day-without-going-crazy/

 

Trading:

TheTabb Group, a consultancy based in Westborough, MA, estimates that high-frequency automated trading now accounts for 61 percent of the more than 10 billion shares traded daily across the numerous exchanges that make up the U.S. market.
http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/416805/trading-shares-in-milliseconds/



Just one trader:

By the end of the day, his computers will have bought and sold about 60 million to 80 million shares, with the heaviest activity in the last hour of trading, from three to four in the afternoon.
http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/416805/trading-shares-in-milliseconds/



Health/Medical-Records:

Government agency handles billions of files containing private health information
The Challenge Improve security and data exchange across a complex partner network
https://pkware.cachefly.net/webdocs/casestudies/CMS.pdf




IBM says Elastic Storage is capable of scanning 10 billion files in 43 minutes and can move billions of files in microseconds. It can also automatically transfer less frequently used data across the whole capacity pool into less expensive storage options, leaving faster storage resources, such as Flash for more important data. IBM claims this can cut down storage costs by as much as 90%.

(...) IBM started receiving calls from members of the healthcare industry who said they were interested in using Elastic Storage to store and process complex and voluminous medical data.
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/6884/20140513/ibm-launches-elastic-storage-scan-10-billion-files-no-sweat.htm



Everybody can do some research about it to find some statistics of different sectors and industries and businesses and "big data" etc. Just think about data of patients, banks, data in science, laboratories, offices for statistics, etc., and just for fun:

Maybe this wouldn't have been happened with Factom:

Report Reveals $8.5 Trillion Missing From Pentagon Budget
http://www.globalresearch.ca/report-reveals-8-5-trillion-missing-from-pentagon-budget-2/5453618

And no, I don't believe the Pentagon will use Factom. ;-)


But, to be serious again: I believe Factom is extreme. There is just "do it or die". If it's just about some millions of files I don't believe that could be seen as success. If Factom will be what it is intended to be, it will be about billions of Entrys. It won't be about little girls who hash their diary everyday. ;-)

My impression is that there is somebody or maybe more than just one whale who wants to push it down. It started yesterday with a huge dump and than there showed up a big sellwall. But he didn't really want to sell. Always when it came near the sell-wall was taken away. Today it's the same game. First dumping, than sell-walls "on/off".

So, I don't believe it's really the will to cash out and leave, maybe more to buy low. But I'm not sure if it can be successful. The market-depth looks very good.

Another scenario would be that somebody who bought a lot during the ICO really cashed out because it's at about 100% profit, plus the BTC-price is higher. Maybe I would believe that if there wouldn't be these manipulative games with sell-walls.

But anyway, it's good when wales distribute their massive amounts.

By the way, just an example how stupid some guys try to manipulate.

A few days ago somebody bang the drum on twitter for FCT. First (all on Dec. 19th) he tweeted:


#factom on chinese exchange very soon!
#eth #bts
https://twitter.com/William42111948/status/678124770815287297


#fct mooning
#eth #bts
https://twitter.com/William42111948/status/678275423906721793


FActom is the next #eth  BULL RUN BUY IT
https://twitter.com/William42111948/status/678488365637988352



But just seven hours later, after he obviously sold way too early:



#factom HIDDEN BLOCK DETECTED! IT IS A SCAMCOIN!
COIN SUPPLY IS FAKE
#eth #bts
https://twitter.com/William42111948/status/678590741342511104



I laughed so hard and showed it to some friends. That guy is an entertainer!

One advice: Don't play against the market. Especially not against china.

Interesting... No posts without intention if you know what I mean. ;-)

I bought, too. Didn't believe I would get it that cheap again. Funny is: It was so obvious that a whale tried to bring the price down but he wasn't  very subtle. First the dumping and than sell-walls about more than 80BTC. But he was scared that somebody could buy it.

I doubt that it was good business. And it was a great risk. There are people with huge money in and I wouldn't be surprised if anybody would buy him out if he tries it again. With other words: Congrats to the whale that you have that many FCT, but if you want to manipulate the market it could end in a way you don't want it. ;-)

In general it's great to have the chines-exchange in, because it's not that easy any more to manipulate the market. The chinese were not impressed. And it's good if somebody who acts that extreme, this "impulsive whale", distributes his own supply. Better now than later when the price is even higher.

I believed that the price would go down to 0.001 but it seems to stabilize. The volume is still very high. And the team says they will release a first Milestone 2 candidate by the end of the year - the next 10 days. Even if there should be a delay it will be released in the next weeks. So, I don't expect a long time without news of progress. But if we should see some quiet weeks I would expect the price to go down a little bit.

The "problem" is (and what I like in Factom): Surprises... The news about Azure made obvious that the team doesn't say weeks before what will happen. Good news come out of nothing. The same with the chinese exchange. That's the main reason why I won't sell because of the risk that I could lose connection to the market. It's so damn fast when there are good news. It's enough to sleep 5 hours and the price is up more than 100%.

Under the line, what I would do if I wouldn't be invested: I would buy in with maybe 20% and than watch the market. If it should go down I would buy more to get better prices. If it should stabilize with stable volume in this range, I also would go all in after some days, because that would be a sign for an new base.

But, that's just my opinion for now. I could be wrong. In general it's about the own opinion if you see real potential in Factom or not. If yes and if it should realize it's still cheap.

No, it's not really correct. It's about the question at which price will inflation and consumption be leveled out.

If we calculate with 1 Mio Dollar per year:

Inflation will be (there is no inflation yet) at 10% of the total supply if I remember it right, so it would be about 870,000 FCT's per year.

So, the calculation for 1 Mio Dollar per year invested in EC's is:

1,000,000 Dollar / 870,000 FCT's = 1,1 Dollar per FCT


But: 1 Mio Dollar is not that much. It's just a number. If you take a look here, about the data-volume in time of some companies:
http://pennystocks.la/internet-in-real-time/

I'm not sure if it's still correct but if it was it won't be less, rather more. Focus on dropbox, just for example:

Dropbox has (in this visualization) about 690,000 files saved per minute.

Per day that is: 496,800,000 files.

If we would calculate that as Entrys in Factom, just for fun as a "brainstorming-theory", it would be:

496,800,000 Entry Credits to each 0.001 Dollar = 496,800 Dollar per day. Inflation is about 2,400 FCT's per day.

496,800 Dollar / 2,400 FCT's = 207 dollar per FCT.


Of course, the question is: Is something like that realistic? Will dropbox use Factom to record their Uploads? No, I don't believe that because most of the data on Dropbox won't be very important and most of the users don't even pay for it.

But, dropbox is just one cloud-storage company. Factom is such an open system that it can be used for nearly everything. Banks, exchanges, medical-records, little companies and big ones, individuals all over the world and so on. From it's base-potential it's very unlimited.

And, if we would have data of the trading of exchanges, or even stock-speed-trading, and calculate something like that, I don't know the result but it would be much much more. Or medical records would be really big and that's absolutely realistic in my opinion. Or recording transactions of banks. It's very unlimited.


With that being said: I can't know what will happen but I believe it will be extrem. If Factom won't fail it will be used. I believe it's that easy. And than it's just a question of time that there also will be much volume. So, the current price is okay in some ways. But if we see it out of speculator-perspective I still see a lot more potential. The current peak was because of azure and even more because of the chinese exchange. If there should be a deal with a bank or whatever, the market would anticipate not just that deal but the potential for 2 more deals. And with every deal the confidence that there will be more will rise. With other words: If the market will see safe signs for success it will overdrive.

That's a reason why I call the current peak in price a correction and not a pump, because those signs were already there months ago.  

And: What I really really like in Factom and the FCT-market: The speculation doesn't hurt. The use of the system is about the fixed EC-price, not about the FCT-price. With other words: The FCT-price could fly to 100 Dollar, just out of speculation, but it wouldn't be more expensive to use the system. It would be still 1/10 cent for an entry. The same with the distribution. In a normal crypto-currency the lack of distribution is a problem. It won't be ever a problem of Factom as a system.

To make a long story short: Factom, if it will be realized the way it's planned, is a best-case scenario for every Investor. There will be a calculable price because of the use but there will be also some hype everytime there will be good news. And because it's openness the possibility that we will see times with good news like bangs on a drum is high.

Poloniex: https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_fct

Somebody already replied with a little dump:

67527.83149064   1.14797314 BTC


Edit: Funny is that this "exciting news" is already one hour released and if I look at the "counter" of the links: Two clicks.

"What is the will be the most influential #BaaS [Blockchain-as-a-Service] being added to @Microsoft @Azure?"

- Eris Industries
- CoinPrism
- Ethereum
- Factom

Vote in the tweet: https://twitter.com/creiddouthat/status/678723048967675906

Paul Snow at The Crypto Show:

First Hour
We take it on the road and visit the Factom office to talk with Paul Snow about Factom's recent add to Microsoft, the Texas Bitcoin Conference, and CISA, the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act.
https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-crypto-show-paul-snow-of-factom-and-eijah-of-demonsaw-and-gta5?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Not just very informative, but also entertaining!

More buy-support in china above 1 dollar than FCT's on the sell-side on Polo. ;-)

This isn't just an usual altcoin. I believe that there will be profit-taking at some point and the price will settle, but I don't believe it will fall back to ICO-Price. Milestone 2 will be delivered soon etc. The current price is in some ways crazy because of the sharp rise, but it's not irrational in my opinion.

There could be several reasons. Pump would be one, but I believe china is a big reason and azure brought some attention. China is trading at about 7 CNY = 1.08 USD. The price at polo is at about 0.63 USD. Means: There will be a lot of arbitrage.

And: The potential is great. Only 8.7 Mio total supply. Marketcap is at $ 5,594,663. Compare it with Ethereum: $ 68,884,533

There are a lot of reasons for higher prices. Just some days ago I've said that it's totally undervalued and I believe that it did not get the attention it deserves. So, call it a pump, I call it a price-correction. ;-)

The chinese exchange opened the FCT-trading:
https://yuanbaohui.com/trade/fct2cny

If I see it right the price is at 7.5 CNY right now.

1 CNY = 0.154197 USD
7.50 CNY = 1.16 USD
http://themoneyconverter.com/CNY/USD.aspx

Where do you see that?


Edit: You mean the Sell-Orders, right? It's a total of 241,698 FCT's at the moment. That doesn't mean that there isn't more on Polo. 

Really a newbie or just a sockpuppet-account? ;-)