Lets give Yantis and all other ASIC owners the benefit of the doubt: Rather than losing 15% every 7 days, let make it only 1% every 7 days.  As you might imagine, this is an EXTREMELY rosy picture. It won't ever happen. Like someone posted, the next difficulty correction is shorter than 1 week and is actually 24% and not 15%. So no matter how you shake it, ASIC resales are going to be fairly unprofitable. Even if you do Jedi Mind Tricks. |
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Ultimately he and anyone else can request whatever amount they choose. All it takes is one moron to think its worth it. The moron loses out but what does the seller care ? he just sold his almost worthless miner for 25 grand.
I doubt Yantis is a bad person. What I think though, is that he knows he is giving people a bad sale. Though he is looking for a moron to part with his money/BTC. This brings up the question: If each Avalon will now only produce in the neighborhood of 105 BTC. Then what is a fair price for each? 25% of expected income? 50%? |
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what? 105btc back on a 250btc investment over a whole year isn't good?  I bet OP will say 105 back is great cuz you still have a 250btc machine, so you're at 355btc worth of hardware/btc, haha meanwhile he's trying to lock in a solid 2.5x profit on his hardware alone not counting what he's already made. You know OP is a master interneter, he couldn't even find the proper sub-forum for his COMPUTER HARDWARE FOR SALE---> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=75.0LOL, uh, that is what you actually get when you have the ASIC in your hands. This means that you'll never make back the price of this Avalon if you buy it today. This is actually a rosey picture. This doesn't include your bills for electricity or any other expenses. If you think this is bad, imagine the people who are just getting their BFL Singles in a month. (@ 50/60GH/s) |
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If you'd like me to change the rate of decrease, then let me know.
I set profitability to decrease by 15% every 7 days. (like a difficulty increase)
In reality, the difficulty is increasing at a much sharper rate than this.
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I think you will change your mind...(Does a Jedi mind trick with facts)  Title: ASIC's are WAY overpriced! |
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good work mrb, this is what we wanted to see in the beginning. hint hint: the chip has a much higher clock cap.   Is this due to advances at the fab? Does it run any cooler? |
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Anything above 20BTC is way overpriced.
Considering the difficulty crunch that is about to rear it's head on people. There won't be a reason to imitate Avalon previous price points for 65Gh/s.
If they can't sell it at well below 20 BTC then they are certain to be a future defunct company. Period.
KNC/BFL or whoever, it applies.
As difficulty increases companies WILL lower their prices or people (except the most foolhardy) simply won't pay it. There is no incentive to throw away money on an ASIC that will just barely eek out it's own cost.
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We are currently processing back logged orders.
For many of you who have not received your orders still it may be due to customer error. We will be contacting users with these types of issues and asking for valid account #s or btc addresses so we can continue to process your order.
I am curious as to the extent of the backlog. Without really saying much (in terms of USD or BTC) how many orders are in the backlog? 10? 20? 200? |
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Day 3...still nothing.
BitInstant you may as well give everyone their transaction without fees to make up for these (repeating) issues.
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Stay Away!
ClusterFuck is the word that comes to mind.
Day 3 and still no funds.
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They like to keep people in perpetual suspense.  |
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I consider profitable anywhere from 7 to 9 bitcoins per day. Not 1.
If you don't keep upping your hashrate, you just keep earning less and less each day.
Right now, you need a good 400GH/s to earn 7 to 9 bitcoins per day. Imagine by August. Current ASICS are way overpriced. There is either going to be a huge drop in prices soon or a major disatisfaction from miners earning less than 1 btc per day. (Of course, for previous GPU owners that is an amazing amount of cash for them)
this is exaggerated, earning 1 a day, is respectable, we are talking about $3000 in one months at current price the problem is the initial investment if you can mantain this ratio: 3btc/5ghs/10M difficulty then it is possible to buy the next asic , stay in the racing game and make profit Again, if you are a GPU miner going to an ASIC that is going to be acceptable. I went directly to an ASIC so my views of what is respectable profit is obviously different. I earned 9btc just two days ago from trading alone. From the ASIC about 3 or 4 BTC in that same day. If I were sticking to only one pool it would have been closer to 2 BTC. I suspect GPU Miners moving into ASICs are going to settle for far less and perceive 1 BTC per day to be a "good" profit. Heck, Jally owners seem to be pretty happy to even get a quarter of a BTC every other day. |
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If it gets to the point BFL devices aren't profitable vs the cost of electricity, I'm not sure there's any possible option left to mine for profit.
Would anyone be happy to buy shares on my ASIC? I'd guarantee 10cents for every share. LOL. |
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You and I find ourselves in the same issue.
You could use LocalBitCoins with the escrow feature.
Though the other party must use Gift (family and friends) and not Goods and Services when sending a payment through. Otherwise it will defeat the purpose of the LocalBitCoins escrow service.
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They sell you 8% below MTGox average.
Consider that point for a moment.
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Day 2 has come and gone....still nothing.
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A more sure bet is to trade bitcoins. On my first day I made 8 BTC.
I WAS going to make 25btc but then I pulled the trigger a little too early. Damn...
It sure beats mining right? (I am already at the 0.43% tier after only 3 days)
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BFL devices would still be fairly profitable to operate at 3x current difficulty. I believe you need to get all the way to 10x current difficulty in order for profitability to look iffy.
They can only be profitable after they reach break-even point, which is going to be several months (or maybe even never) after the device starts mining. I agree, but BFL offers some of the lowest cost/GH devices. If their devices aren't profitable to operate in a couple months, neither will most of the other available ASICs devices. It does seem like there is a big bubble building in ASIC mining hardware. If the price of BTC doesn't go up, or if the cost of ASIC mining hardware doesn't go down, the future doesn't look that bright for miners. Which is why the rat race is about to occur. Those with money can acquire the large number of Gh/s they need to stay profitable. Those who started late, must use almost all their profits to reinvest into more hardware. I don't know yet, but it might be a zero sum game. If it turns out that way, the resell value of ASICs is going to drop way below what the retail price is currently at. So it might all work itself out. I will soon offer a ridiculously low offer for Singles. People will scoff at first, then when they can't make enough, they will take it. LOL. |
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In my opinion, BFL is decent option compared to their competition at the present moment. I know they've had issues in the past, but they fact that they are cranking out Jalapeno's is very encouraging.
Lets compare them to their competition:
1.) ASICMiner - The price of their blades and usb miners is a complete ripoff that will likely never earn back what the cost in BTC (cost over $400/GHs).
2.) KNCMiner - This company looks encouraging, but they still have a long way to go before they can ship a working product. I'd give them a 50/50 shot of shipping anything in 2013 (Cost of ~22$/GHs).
3.) Avalon - All you can do at the moment is buy the chips and hope you'll be able to turn them into a working miner in a timely fashion (assembled cost and delivery unknown, but Terrahash is selling for ~50$/GHs).
4.) BitFury - I haven't been following this company that closely because I don't feel comfortable ordering anything priced in BTC from Russia.
5.) BTC - Shipping Jalapeno's, huge backlog being worked off at about the rate of 1 month per week, cost of ~$50/GHs.
6.) Buying used ASICs secondhand is also a complete ripoff with prices of Avalons going for ~$500/GHs.
You can either buy 2 USB miners from ASICMiner (600 MHs) or a 7 GHs miner from BFL for 4 BTC. If the BFL Jalapeno ships in the next 2 to 4 months, which I think will happen due to their recent performance, there is a clear winner.
I understand that some folks with early pre-orders are pissed at BFL, but if one does the math and tries to take a truly unbiased view of the current ASICs landscape, BFL is not a bad option...
There is one problem with your calculations. If BFL delivers their entire backlog, that could add 200-300 TH/s to the hash rate. Tripling the hash rate (even before the Avalon/Klondike wave hits in Aug/Sept/Oct). That would cut returns for BFL single & mini-rig owners by one third. If BFL does not clear their backlog, you cannot get a device ordered today from them until they do. It inserts an large element of uncertainty. ASICminer is just gouging because they can. Currently, they are the only ASIC company that will deliver an order you place today within a week. BFL devices would still be fairly profitable to operate at 3x current difficulty. I believe you need to get all the way to 10x current difficulty in order for profitability to look iffy. Difficulty adjustments were 10 to 14 days, now they are shrinking to 4 to 7 days. So 3x means you'll get to it in about 12 to 21 days. At 10x you'll get to it in about 40 to 70 days. This is all assuming the rate doesn't accelerate...which is exactly what is going to happen with the huge number of ASICs. Expect less than half that time frame when Singles ship. ------------- Though, there are alternate scenarios where an ASIC is still profitable if you think about the problem in an ingenius way. |
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