|
Let's be generous and assume an average 90% probability that each step in the predicted chain of events occurs as described...
Event Probability
1 100%
2 90%
3 81%
4 73%
5 66%
6 59%
7 53%
8 48%
9 43%
10 39%
11 35%
12 31%
13 28%
14 25%
End result:
25% Smooth transition. All: "Hail misterbigg"
75% Train wreck, emergency block size increase. misterbigg: "Sorry, my next prediction will be better!"
|
|
|
|
Even with (compared to BTC nearly static) fiat currencies this would cause a LOT of uproar. Just download a year worth of Forex data and then act as if your USD account displayed its values in EUR instead (or the other way round). Suddenly your balance is different every minute, you cannot tell how much you'll earn and spend any more until you actually do so...
Sukrim, step back and think about it further. If you transfer money from euros or dollars into bitcoin and use it to buy an item off a website in bitcoin then you would be paying more or less in fiat terms by the time you do the purchase. Probably more, with bitcoin rising so much. Are merchants going to revise their Bitcoin prices (usually downward) every minute, hour or even daily? During the transition period when merchant costs are in fiat, they will be thinking of pricing in fiat terms. It is a hassle to keep revising their prices downwards as bitcoin appreciates. Stale bitcoin prices will always be seen by the public as too expensive. Making bitcoin a less visible layer underneath a virtual fiat transaction is the way to go. Yes, VF wallets will jump around in value, but if you have $200 worth in fiat and it oscillates between $190 and $210 every now and again, so what? it is not unusable for buying a $10 book. |
|
|
|
correction is now
Don't be hasty. Someone unloaded 3k coins but the market shrugged it off. There isn't a rush for the door... I watched it happen, and it makes me think that there is something fundamentally wrong with this upswing in price. Respect Le Happy Merchant. He called it! |
|
|
|
This is going to be a huge problem for mainstream uptake of bitcoin. The way that bitcoin is deflating against fiat currencies means that very soon a single BTC is going to be useless for day to day use. This means that there are going to be a lot of zeros and points in funny places if we carry on with the current system. Maybe we need to start looking at this from the other side of the decimal point. Maybe its time to consider that the unit of interest to the public should be the Satoshi. A Big Mac would cost 0.12345678 bitcoins, but that too complex. Its still too big, and with the public being used to 5 numbers as a maximum while out shopping, it would make sense to carry on the tradition. What if it cost 12345678 Satoshi and forget the decimal? From a commercial angle, why not call it 12.34 Mega Satoshis. As inflation kicks in and a Big Mac costs 0.00123456, this will become 123 000 Satoshi but that could be in time for the mainstream takeup. I know that on face value, this looks to be going against the grain, but in the grand scheme of things, the public needs as little difference to their fiat currency as possible. Having a figure which is a fraction of a fraction is really hard work to compare with a positive number in the 10s or hundreds. From the wallet perspective, it should make no difference, its just how its presented. Would love some feedback on this idea!  nwbitcoin, +1 for thinking through detail that most people just ignore. For a while now I have been thinking that the twin Bitcoin "features" of many decimal places and serious deflation will be a real road-block to widespread casual adoption. People need to be able to quickly compare and absorb prices. How to do it? The answer is by using existing fiat values. So, what is needed is a new type of "virtual fiat" wallet, call it the VF-Wallet and similarly for clients, a VF-Client. What these do is allow users to select from a multi-choice the fiat they are used to, then it displays all the price values in fiat. However, no real fiat is involved. The actual transaction takes place entirely in Bitcoin with an fx rate determined by a weighted average of the main Bitcoin exchanges last execution price. Merchants making many transactions would average out on the fx rate they receive. Yes, that is the answer! If everyone is carrying a simple exchange in their pockets, then while their minds are spending Dollars, Pounds, Yen or Euros, they are really spending bitcoins where that is the cheapest option. If you think of it like the way the telephone network was derestricted, and people could choose to use voip or traditional pbx. The only thing they actually cared about was talking to Aunt Bessie for the least cost. That is what this wallet would allow. Use bitcoins to make stuff cheaper by using a virtual fiat wallet! You want mainstream take up? This might be how we are going to convince people to try it out! Agreed! This could be the Bitcoin fiat-killer app which takes the mainstream by storm. I was going to do a fancy new post announcing the VF-Wallet/Client idea, with a bit of background and collaborative input. Been distracted lately instead hammering on about two much more pressing issues which need to be addressed first: the 1Mb max block size, and the lack of an ISO code for Bitcoin. No good taking it mainstream when it is simply not up to the job. |
|
|
|
correction is now
Don't be hasty. Someone unloaded 3k coins but the market shrugged it off. There isn't a rush for the door... |
|
|
|
|
If it does not bounce back off the wall at $47 then $50 will be hit soon..
|
|
|
|
I think my head just exploded  What is an ISO currency code? Is that where its recongized as a currency? ( sorry it's late here my eyes are going cross-eyed lol ) Correct. It is an official identifier which, if assigned, will mean that Bitcoin will be directly tradable in the world's tens of thousands of existing FX systems. It will also make it far far harder for central banks to attack in the future. |
|
|
|
Any bear who dares to stand up and fight against the tide is my hero, this dizzy speed is rather unsettling.
 Bitcoin has found a new use for bears... |
|
|
|
c'mon guys, only BTC52202 to $13370133701337.00
Even with the price and volume increase, total asks increased to BTC60183. What does it all mean?  In two years time the fx rate could easily be $200 based upon growth seen in the previous two years. So, does buying at $44 look cheap to the long-term investor? I get why new money is coming in, I don't get where/why the increased coin is coming from. not much is coming and that is why we are flying up... People who bought cheaply, maybe at $2 are taking a huge profit. The increased price is bringing coins out of cold storage $46 now. It is mental! |
|
|
|
c'mon guys, only BTC52202 to $13370133701337.00
Even with the price and volume increase, total asks increased to BTC60183. What does it all mean? In two years time the fx rate could easily be $200 based upon growth seen in the previous two years. So, does buying at $44 look cheap to the long-term investor? |
|
|
|
The "soft" limit is set by each miner.
When I mined using vanilla, unmodified bitcoind + p2pool, it was a simple configuration setting to change the limit to 900k.
My first block was over 400k.
Soft limit "maxing out" is a non-event.
ok, fine. As long as miners are aware and can increase easily when it's considered necessary... |
|
|
|
1800+ transactions pending (equivalent to 3 blocks or 30 mins).
Where do you find this info on pending transactions?
http://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactionsIs this the first time this "maxing out" happens?
This is an unusually high number. (Call me whatever, but I keep an eye on this as it is the beating heart of Bitcoin). In conjunction with saturated blocks - it is unique and not good... |
|
|
|
|
Recent blocks
Height Size (kB)
224470 243.12
224469 239.69
224468 243.31
224467 242.93
224466 119.81
224465 243.26
224464 242.69
1800+ transactions pending (equivalent to 3 blocks or 30 mins).
IMHO. Time to stop gathering metrics at the 250Kb soft limit and allow a larger size, perhaps 500Kb.. Thoughts?
|
|
|
|
This is going to be a huge problem for mainstream uptake of bitcoin. The way that bitcoin is deflating against fiat currencies means that very soon a single BTC is going to be useless for day to day use. This means that there are going to be a lot of zeros and points in funny places if we carry on with the current system. Maybe we need to start looking at this from the other side of the decimal point. Maybe its time to consider that the unit of interest to the public should be the Satoshi. A Big Mac would cost 0.12345678 bitcoins, but that too complex. Its still too big, and with the public being used to 5 numbers as a maximum while out shopping, it would make sense to carry on the tradition. What if it cost 12345678 Satoshi and forget the decimal? From a commercial angle, why not call it 12.34 Mega Satoshis. As inflation kicks in and a Big Mac costs 0.00123456, this will become 123 000 Satoshi but that could be in time for the mainstream takeup. I know that on face value, this looks to be going against the grain, but in the grand scheme of things, the public needs as little difference to their fiat currency as possible. Having a figure which is a fraction of a fraction is really hard work to compare with a positive number in the 10s or hundreds. From the wallet perspective, it should make no difference, its just how its presented. Would love some feedback on this idea! nwbitcoin, +1 for thinking through detail that most people just ignore. For a while now I have been thinking that the twin Bitcoin "features" of many decimal places and serious deflation will be a real road-block to widespread casual adoption. People need to be able to quickly compare and absorb prices. How to do it? The answer is by using existing fiat values. So, what is needed is a new type of "virtual fiat" wallet, call it the VF-Wallet and similarly for clients, a VF-Client. What these do is allow users to select from a multi-choice the fiat they are used to, then it displays all the price values in fiat. However, no real fiat is involved. The actual transaction takes place entirely in Bitcoin with an fx rate determined by a weighted average of the main Bitcoin exchanges last execution price. Merchants making many transactions would average out on the fx rate they receive. |
|
|
|
 But maybe that's just me. You da man! |
|
|
|
|
If you are getting a desk ornament made up for the 10,000 then I'll have one of them...
|
|
|
|
|
Depending upon the size of your savings, this is a reasonable split:
30% in shares: high-tech and agriculture
30% in gold and silver
30% in Bitcoin
10% in your domestic fiat
Basically a mixture for capital preservation, growth and quick access
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
