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I have done exactly the same thing.
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1. Own a buisiness
2. Give people payment invoices where they have to pay in a mixture of cash, check, money order, Paypal, and Home Depot gift cards (in Europe)
3. They can never take all of your funds because each of those things are safe for small amounts.
That's clearly what he should have done.
Even with hindsight, why is that clearly what he should have done? Do you currently own a home that's worth more than $100K? Are you going to move to a smaller one in case the government decides to put a 50% tax on your house to pay for the budget deficit next month? Correct. In fact this can only be another mission executed.... Thank you Captain Hindsight!!  |
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And by "insolvent", I mean that in the technical sense - I don't think Gox has immediate access to all of their deposited customer funds. I think some if not most is locked up in frozen bank accounts.  That's so wicked. Laughed  Back in June, when my transfer languished for 4 days "confirmed". I cancelled it, bought coins and sold them in small lots locally. Have exited MtGox until and if they ever get their act together and stop treating customers like mushrooms (in the dark, fed on sh*t). Tried Bitstamp and like it a lot. Except, their order interface is a dinosaur like Mt.Gox's. Many thanks to Bitcoinwisdom and Clark Moody that we can see what the BTC markets are actually doing (because the exchanges sure can't tell us). |
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Nah.
Look at your data more closely. Everyone says final capitulation in a bubble should be on high-volume. The high volume in 2011 was at the end, in 2013 it was at the start, when it got to the 50s. Even allowing for more coins in 2013 the April volume was absolutely huge, dwarfing all but the very last days of the 2011 dip when it is arguably comparable. Is anyone expecting a million coin trading day soon? |
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You are missing an option in your poll:
I dislike taxes, but recognize that there are certain services I require from a government (examples: enforcement of contracts and national defense). I realize that these necessary services have an associated cost and the only way a government can provide these services is to collect payment from the citizens. As such, I am willing to pay a reasonable amount of taxes for the minimum necessary government services.
Agreed. However, modern governments could function perfectly well reduced in size by 75%. This means that taxes could be reduced by 60% (in order so that balanced budgets could be run). Most people do not object to paying 15% or 20% taxation. It is the insane levels which exist in OECD countries now coupled with Mr Creosote-sized government bureaucracies which has taxpayers everywhere crying "enough".  |
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Third, again, look at the chart! There is no indication yet that a bottom has formed. You only know that after the bottom is formed once you move to a new trend with higher highs and higher lows.
When you realise this, it will be too late to buy back without losing 30%-50% of what you could have by buying now (or at 60's that are long gone). I am buying every bitcoin i can below $100 and i don't think i will regret this. Exactly. By the time the higher highs are obvious to everyone the edge for traders has gone. I agree that selling at this level is riskier than staying in. If the "bubble-burst" is done, any speculation on where we go from here? Will it be a gradual climb or a crazy spike or series of spikes? I suppose a nice gradual climb would be more stable and perhaps "better" or with less risk of another "bubble" to burst.
Assuming $90-95 is a medium-term level like $12-13 was then an occasional visit to $85 or $100 at least is expected. But news will trump stability. I am still concerned that MtGox is seriously wounded by its USD problems and that a "run on the bank" may occur with a temporary spike to 130 or even 150 if people want to convert to BTC and exit at once. The retrace after that will not be pretty. Wagner. A whole year squished into a chart is always going to show the big picture, but it eliminates seeing the smaller clues which the market leaves behind. Unless one subscribes to the random walk, and TA is meaningless - then there has to be useful information at smaller scales. Please zoom into the 4-hour views. Yes, it has been stable elsewhere, like $47, but the market has shown no appetite for a repeat of that level.  |
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I am calling the 2013 bubble-burst completed. This is based upon the observation that the 2013 bubble was structurally more similar to the August 2012 event than the 2011 one.
March 28 to April 1st - pre-2013 peak. Stability in low 90s.
April 18/19 - same during period of large oscillations.
July 19-23 ongoing - more stability in the 90s.
I also believe that the reward halving at the end of Nov 2012 was the key driver in the appreciation of the BTC fxrate to a new level. Markets always discount known data with a future effect. So for four years the market lived with the information that the 21 million cap probably would be effective. The reward halving proved that it will be effective. This is an important distinction, and a successful reward halving paradigm is now properly priced in.
The repricing likely coincided with large acquisitions (such as the Winklevoss holding being accumulated), coupled with news-frenzy and feedback from the telegenic but BTC-irrelevant Cypriot bank crisis, likely caused over-compensation, so the fxrate ran 150% higher than the fundamentals warranted.
That 150% surge has now dissipated.
Any takers on this reading?
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Yes. That example with difficulty <1 is a effectively a strawman example which undermines, rather than supports, the OP's concerns.
Considering the OP, surely, anyone with 50% of the hashing-power and prepared to switch it off suddenly would only create a period of 20 minute blocks (up to 2 weeks worth). Hardly a disaster. However, it begs the question of why someone with 50% could not stretch a bit further and perform all the disruptive 51% actions which have been discussed ad nauseum in this forum. Fortunately the hashing power is well distributed. If a major pool stopped, then individuals would quickly choose another pool and the block solving would continue close to the required rate.
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Maybe the BTC Girl willing to pay for porn by our members? Would that be like the hotel room fight between Borat and his "manager"? |
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During the last month, every time the volume was so low, the price trend was slowly downwards, ending with a significant drop.
Maybe this time it will be different, but I doubt that. So I placed my buy order at 80.xx and am waiting.
Did you remember to buy when it was 70 a couple of weeks ago? |
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I just got back from vacation, I drove all the way back from PEI to Montreal, a 12 hour drive + stops ( still feeling hopped up on coffee  ) anyway, i'm back so up Up UP!  Welcome back. Very wise to stay away from the taverns in Lac Megantic Edit: I am forming a new theory that the 2013 bubble has dissipated and $90-95 is the new medium-term price. Consider that it spent a couple of days there before the peak, during the retrace to 166 and settling now. Are you saying that it is looking less like 2011 and looking more like 2012? this is exactly what i think too, especially considering news from 2011 and now. They are completely different not to mention a lot more services. And besides in 2011 no one know what will happen next but now we know there is going to be another bubble sooner or later. Yes. I think August 2012 is a more similar event. Another price factor that a lot of people forget is that the block reward halved at the end of November. It took a month before a major uptrend started but it seems the market drew a lot of confidence about Bitcoin from the halving as it proved that the 21 million cap really would be effective. |
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I just got back from vacation, I drove all the way back from PEI to Montreal, a 12 hour drive + stops ( still feeling hopped up on coffee ) anyway, i'm back so up Up UP! Welcome back. Very wise to stay away from the taverns in Lac Megantic Edit: I am forming a new theory that the 2013 bubble has dissipated and $90-95 is the new medium-term price. Consider that it spent a couple of days there before the peak, during the retrace to 166 and settling now. |
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i hope people finally give up their false hopes and the final capitulation happens so that we can move on. i can't take the permabulls anymore.
Translation: "I discovered Bitcoin when it was at $266 and desperately want it back down at $2.66 so I can fill my boots with them, and then miraculously it must go back to $266 without further delay." |
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Excellent work by the BF and its lawyers!
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Not sure you can say this is a 'socialist' policy.
It's definitely a capitalist policy where the people who currently have the most capital are making the rules.
Also, if you want to call it a socialist policy, it would seem capitalists are happy with capitalism until they're made to pay for their mistakes, then it's socialism all the way...
This totally nails the point. It would be happy with capitalism if it was available anywhere on earth. Sadly it isn't  Singapore and Hong Kong are the closest examples to a true capitalist economy. No surprise that they do well all the time. |
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Banks are doing more to annoy Bitcoiners than governments, probably because banks realize that this is a new technology which will force them to behave and reduce the ponzi FIRE economy to the rump that it should be.
If Bitcoin was a sure-fire winner right now they would go for $900 each not $90.
Use Bitstamp instead of MtGox at least until MtGox sorts itself out (at which point it may be no.2 exchange anyway).
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Great news. Any chance of screenshots of the mtgox withdrawal and bank receipt entries?
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