What would you guess the peak over the next 6-8 months?
The best I can offer is this chart which I have updated as of today. It indicates that $200 is a reasonable expectation within 6 months. I am being a bit more conservative and consider that $130-150 is a top range within that time. The current $102 is close to trend. An observation which I just noticed is that after the $266 peak the double-bottom (measured by daily average) was first at $68.30 in April and the secondly at $68.50 in July. Both very close in value. The market does not want to go lower than $68 anymore.  |
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Btc is not illegal in thailand. Just cuz one suspected scam site said so does not mean it is law...
Come on. We have to have some red on the map somewhere! |
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A cease and desist order?
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Depends upon whether you trust Satoshi's judgement. According to that site the SHA-2 family went "orange" before Bitcoin went live. Satoshi would have been aware of the 2007 paper mentioned which is the only thing vaguely justifying an orange alert.
I am not an expert, but from what I have read about SHA-2 it is very robust and would require a Fields Medal winning breakthrough in mathematics to scratch it.
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I have received a rather large box addressed to "Mr.Bitcoin"  price will rise sharply soon! How many business days is it now to 180? IDK, but just the speculation around what is in the mystery box addressed to "Mr.Bitcoin" should push us to 120!     |
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anyone that purchases XXX will be shittttttty
Only the CB which issued XXX in the first place will be buying it for BTC once the changeover is announced. what? CB: trade XXX for USD CB: USD for BTC the person holding XXX is screwed! No. The CB issuing XXX uses its existing USD holdings to buy BTC. Then buys XXX for BTC. Persons with XXX now have BTC. Not screwed, the opposite in fact, happier. two objections:
1. Why go through all the complexities of buying x for y etc., if what you're doing is simply snapping up bitcoins? You're still incurring losses, only you consider them to be nominal. Once the word gets out that you (a country) are buying up bitcoin, the prices will (appropriately) skyrocket, the losses will not be nominal.
It helps if it is a secret CB project until the coins are acquired! 2. If you are planning to make each bitcoin worth more than you have bought it for, the bitcoins still out in the wild, and those to be yet produced, will be similarly valuated, further debasing your currency (if you buy only one bitcoin, for instance, and substitute it for your entire currency (dealing in microfractions)), Joe Shmoe will be able to collapse your economy with his single bitcoin  Only market values are important. If Bitcoin never reaches the required value then the $$$ spent are merely invested in BTC, the currency conversion does not proceed. Shmoe is irrelevant, all boats float the same on the same tide. |
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anyone that purchases XXX will be shittttttty
Only the CB which issued XXX in the first place will be buying it for BTC once the changeover is announced. Are you assuming that a country's CB holds enough $$$ assets to back its currency? This is the beauty of the whole idea right now. BTC is cheap today so any CB would have $50 million (which is CB pocket money) it could use for its BTC purchase, That would get it a few hundred thousand coins. Then the CB needs to wait until the value of BTC rises so that its coin holdings are equal to its monetary base. Then it can change over from its rubbish old fiat currency to a super-strong currency of the future. Only a few countries will be able do this before the value of BTC will go too high for them to get such a one-time gain. |
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When you see an order-book think of a tug-of-war where forces are pulling apart, not a collision or fight.
Sellers want high prices, buyers want low prices. The overhang of sellers orders on Bitstamp don't want to be sold a few dollars lower where the buyers are sitting. Supply might look large but it does not mean it will move down and take out the smaller demand side.
Also, sentiment changes things. If Gox is going up the sellers on Stamp might move up their orders because they think they can get a higher price, buyers might move up as they are worried they might miss the train. It's all in flux.
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...converts each note once by scribbling "VOID" on the face of each bill in permanent red marker.
Yes. That's it and then the CB incinerates the old currency so there is no chance of it re-entering circulation. Wait, The government buys your bitcoins, gives you dollars in exchange and then takes them away from you and incinerates them??? What are you left with after such a successful transaction? Why would you do something as patently silly? There are 2 fiats: USD and XXX. USD is used to buy BTC in the market and then that BTC is used to buy currency XXX which is incinerated. All the holders who used to have XXX now have BTC instead. Not sure i'm following. Does the XXX currency have any value to begin with, i.e. is it convertible to $$$? If it is, what's the point of the shell game? Simply exchange the XXX to $$$ for this hypothetical, so we can deal with a single variable  XXX is the currency of the small country which wants to switch-over to Bitcoin. XXX is convertible to $$$ but the country wants a BTC economy not a $$$ economy. So it uses its $$$ holdings to acquire BTC which it can then use to replace the XXX. That is the point of the exercise, a change to a new (and better) currency. |
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...converts each note once by scribbling "VOID" on the face of each bill in permanent red marker.
Yes. That's it and then the CB incinerates the old currency so there is no chance of it re-entering circulation. Wait, The government buys your bitcoins, gives you dollars in exchange and then takes them away from you and incinerates them??? What are you left with after such a successful transaction? Why would you do something as patently silly? There are 2 fiats: USD and XXX. USD is used to buy BTC in the market and then that BTC is used to buy currency XXX which is incinerated. All the people who used to have XXX now have BTC instead. |
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To answer the question (serious or not, some may not understand), we normally use base 10 because there are 10 symbols in our integer counting system, 0-9
Base2 has 2 - 0 and 1
Base16 (hex) has 16 - 0-F
I have always thought that humanity would have done much better with base-12 counting system than base-10. The Babylonians had the right idea with 60 as the most useful number, because of its divisibility, where 10 is very much inferior. The metric system would be much better in base-12 too. Too late now though! |
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...converts each note once by scribbling "VOID" on the face of each bill in permanent red marker.
Yes. That's it and then the CB incinerates the old currency so there is no chance of it re-entering circulation. |
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Holy cow!
And violators will be beheaded ?
The lucky ones. The others get stomped on by elephants. |
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The ask walls on MtGox are collapsing!
ClarkMoody is showing an unusual 2:1 ratio right down the depth. Already 30k bids above $90 but only 15k asks to $109.
Is this fundamentals or the scared-fiat spike?
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oh, that makes a bit more sense to me. i could see there being quite the slippage though. also, for foreign holders of the native currency, do they get a guaranteed conversion rate too?
Yes., indeed. All holders of their old fiat would be allowed to exchange at the fixed fate, but there would probably be a time limit of a year at retail banks, but several years at the CB HQ. I believe old French francs can still be converted to euro at the CB, 12 years after the euro was introduced. |
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And here guys and gals is the whole difference between the First World and Third World, between a free society and controlled society:
"At the conclusion of the meeting senior members of the Foreign Exchange Administration and Policy Department advised that due to lack of existing applicable laws, capital controls and the fact that Bitcoin straddles multiple financial facets the following Bitcoin activities are illegal in Thailand..."
In a free country you do what you like as long as it is not illegal. In a controlled un-free country you can only do what is legally allowed.
As a side note, too bad for Thailand, missing the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency train. They will regret it.
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Well:
1. Buy some BTC.
2. Announce conversion date 2 yrs in advance.
3. Educate public (no tax breaks for mining wtf does that help??)
4. Give BTC for old currency at a set (favorable) rate.
I think it would be insanely profitable for a country to do this.
But wouldn't that mean that just upon announcement, the value of fiat will instantly plummet? I just don't see the the incentive for bitcoin sellers to this country. 1. Your scenario's 1 and 2 happens 2. I sell bitcoins for their fiat.. 3. I hold the country's fiat that they do not wish to hold, seeing as they want btc 4.  5. broke 1. They have to buy some BTC using $$$ or euros or by selling gold. If you sell the CB some BTC you get hard currency back. 2. For their people they guarantee a conversion rate for their old dying fiat. i.e. xxx old fiat for 1 BTC. It's do-able. Lots of detail, but doable. |
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Trace Mayer has these numbers for Bitcoin/USD fx rate growth each year: 2009 4,867% 2010 387% 2011 1,320% 2012 170% So a guesstimate of $131-150 at the end of this year would be about 900-1000% growth, which is pretty phenomenal. Maybe 2014 will be a "lowish" growth year of about 200%  http://www.runtogold.com/bitcoin-price/ |
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