Nobody can say anything for sure. An interesting szenario would be if the US goverment formally forbids Bitcoin as payment system - then it will take some times until everything has reconfigured. Another option is that a technical way is found by the anti BTC lobby (banks, insurances, money transfer ...) to damage BTC sustainlingly. All that has a low chance now but it is possible. In case nothing like that happens Bitcoin will not grow up to 20E6 USD for 1 BTC. Because the the Bitcoin economy would cover 20E6 x 21E6 USD which equals 4.2E14 USD which is the M1 amount of USD in circulation - before that happens the market for other cryptocurrency opens widely. Secondly it means that 1 Satoshi (the smallest unit) would be worth 20 US cent - a second reason for using other currencies then.

I like this video - even it seems to be completely senseless:
Bitcoin's Market Value Is About To Go Astronomical

Today I noticed that http://www.lieferservice.de/ accepts Bitcoin. Hey wtf do I need EUR anymore ? I think we will see high BTC prices beyond 1kEUR very soon.

As soon as BTC builds a new bottom and LTC starts beig accepted by a wider community there will be enough time to enter the market.

The real joke is inside the article:

    

As once before I am voting for Bangkok - eg. in a roof top restaurant like:
http://www.bangkok.com/magazine/zense-rooftop-bar.htm

This would be an event nobody will forget.

I just referred to the former posting from Gator-hex. My point of view is that there must be somebody investing the money into Bitcoin to blow up the value or the market has to adopt very fast which is so unlikely. So we will see the outsome after China and India are in.

maybe - but that is not possible before the Bitcoin market consumes 21E12 €. Not sure where we are now - but the pure trading market is around 25E8 €. That means the market must grow by factor 10000 - not a small number.

1000$ next year is nearly sure because not only China comes also India will adopt Bitcoins. Then the market size will be something like 1000 $ x 12E6  =  12E9 $  ~  9.65E9 €.

  - wanted to write something similar
 

Ich werde mal auf Grundlage der bestehenden Folien ein Update generieren.

not be enough? wtf...
dude the 8 decimals can be change into 100 decimals in any minute... but we dont need it.
when bitcoin rises, they will change that and GG...
wtf are you talking :S...
why are noobs talking -.-" ??
[/quote]

cool down junior

Please compare the different money amount M0, M1, M2, M3 for USD or EUR.

M3 amount as Jan, 2013:
EUR cents  ~   10E14  
USD cents  ~   11E14

M1 for Bitcoin in 2033 will be 21E14 units. But firstly the money demand will grow and secondly with Bitcoin we are not mapping only EUR or USD but all money supplies plus additional commodies like Geld.

Die Präsentation ist ja uralt - vom 09.07.2011. Inzwischen hat sich so viel geändert.

Gibt's irgendwo etwas aktuelles ? (Oder ist selber machen angesagt)

Scheint wieder offline zu sein

My very personal opinion to Ripple:

The inventor worked for years on a concept. Then in 2009 when Bitcoin has been invented he saw the shortcuts of his system and was in fear that he will loose years of work just because a genius and unexpected invention came. He decided then to publish things fast and is running behind Bitcoin with a changed concept.

It is expensive, has some serious shortcuts and nobody needs Ripple because it just extends the exchange ledger that traditional money traders already had. Give me a single use case for Ripple which is not covered without Ripple. And finally Ripple has nothing to do with Bitcoin - what is the reason to discuss this legacy system in this forum ?

Fifth addition (to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321720.msg3466206#msg3466206):

In my previous postings I assumed that any Bitcoin takes its value from good and services in circulation plus speculation. But over long time the speculation should go back annealing zero.

This is not the full story. finally the the point may be that the money amount to be mapped to Bitcoin may be much bigger than M0 US Dollar. E.g. people will start to trade assets with Bitcoin. Let's take Apple inc. with 934,8 Mio. stock papers each worth 526.75 $. That is a total of 492,4 Bil. $.

In the future we should be able to trade stock papers like Apple with Bitcoin. That alone would imply

   492,4 E9 USD   /   21 E14 BTC  = 22,585.7143  USD / BTC        i.e.     1 BTC = 22,586 USD

This example is limited to only Apple. But it shows one fundamental problem with legacy currencies (fiat) - the amount of money used is not M0. But with Bitcoin in the first order we just would have a M0 supply.

However his might be solved. It shows clearly the potential of Bitcoin beyond anything anything known from other assets.

Too many members here might have taken drugs that push up their fantasy.

Please read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321720.msg3465538#msg3465538
And the follow up posts where I did some analysis on the fair market value of BTC.

And think about the probable risk that everything takes long time because goverment, finance industry and some other lobbyists will try to destroy Bitcoin. E.g. the US administration can simply put the 144 kBTC into the market - then they will destroy Bitcoin reputation for some time for sure.

Replaced by the original link

possible but unlikely. Bitcoin distribution is a market for itself as well as value distribution over altcoins is a market. These kind of markets tend to concentrate a bigger part of the whole value - they work like attractors. Maybe 20% of the addresses will hold 80% of the Bitcoins. Same works for the altcoin market - Bitcoin will remain the dominant currency.

Fourth addition:

There are other estimates like this one:
The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000. - Falkvinge on Infopolicy

My comment on that is:
 1. Nothing is impossible
 2. the range of 1E5 to 1E6 USD for 1 BTC is the order of magnitude of my most positive estimate (last posting)
 3. not to forget due to the fact that debt is not a concept in the Bitcoin universe the comparison to other currencies in FX markets might not work
 3. finally as in my own estimations none of the used parameters are fixed except the number of Bitcoins - every number is just a guess

But it is very interesting to see that two very independent estimates come to a comparible result for the long time value of Bitcoin which is in the same order of magnitude:   600000 USD   ~   $100,000 To $1,000,000   ---   on the other side 1E6 USD seems to be an upper limit (except USD goes into hyperinflation)

Without being a spoilsport I think we will end up in the range 1E3 to 1E4 USD for 1 BTC in the next years.

Third addition:

There is one more szenario not to forget. Bitcoin really proofs its capabilities and are widely accepted. 30% of the people in the important countries (that is 1.26E9) use Bitcoin and produce each one 1E4 USD each year. Then the calculation would be:

 1260E6  /  21E6  *  1E4   =   600000

That is 600000 USD for 1 BTC. Even if Bitcoin is very successful I would not expect this kind of szenario before most Bitcoins are mined. The next question would be how the market is shared over alt currencies.