O Market Pundits: is the volume low because the price is stable, or is the price stable because the volume is low?
By 'stable' you mean - it hasn't moved much over a Friday night...? |
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I would realy laugh, if after selloffs and rebuys in the western exchanges (for nothing), china wakes up and starts to sell hard.  Massive Mtgox Support wall of 661 @ $875. Probably fake but we'll see. If Huobi hits 4.600 after waking up that wall will probably be destroyed instantly. Fake or not. Walls or only hummocks. But realy: I'm the only one on this board who does not know what will happen next ;-) No you're not  |
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The 247 million indonesians probably care. Boom. The rest is the usual warning about volatility blah blah blah. So Indonesians, like anyone else, can still stick it to the Man. This is actually positive. A massive population - which as yet is not a significant BTC 'hub' is now becoming aware, by virtue of this. The fact it is not a ban, but raises awareness is something going on worldwide. Bitcoin is an issue ALL governments are being forced to acknowledge and have a formal stance on. People I never expected to mention Bitcoin are now aware of it. This has changed massively in just a few months. Awareness is now huge. This is as good as we could hope for. While China and some other factors are causing short term nervousness, we are way beyond the 'drugs / dark web / porn' currency stage. It's a marketing success and Bitcoin is now a fact. Worldwide. This does not mean 'to the moon' today, and probably not tomorrow. But it is a huge stage, far earlier than I and probably all of us expected. 2014 will be very interesting. Let's just get this China shit sorted and we can get on with solid and exciting development and growth. The network is the key, and will be built upon, much like the internet was. Apps and new uses we have never thought of will make crypto, and BTC in particular into a massively big deal. |
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A couple of corrective points:
1. Overstock.
They transfer into fiat immediately - probably don't even handle the BTC at all. So this has little market effect if any.
Also - they took, what 130,000 USD ish on the first day, because of all the hype. A fair percentage of that was Goat. I doubt this has continued into anything remotely significant to the overall BTC market yet. This is not relevant to the market price at the moment at all.
2. British VAT.
IMO, this will not be applied to coins, but to exchange fees. It will not be significant - if applied to coins, no one would trade in the UK at all, which is not HMRC's intention at all. This has been misinterpreted negatively here.
3. Fed selling SR stash.
As I said before, this will be a private auction at below market price, probably in tranches. It will likely go to large investment companies, who will only have an interest in a HIGHER price if they are successful bidders. If they dump, they will lose out, they will be in for investment reasons for the mid-term at least.
So - please can we all think properly and carefully about interpretation of news?
(EDITED for punctuation)
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Time to make sure you have set up your buys (just in case) and look away...
Fridays often see a 4.00 til 5.00 US time pick up as (I am guessing) Wall Street chaps leave the office for the weekend.
The weekend is anyone's guess - but an ATH is not in my wildest dreams right now.
Tread cautiously - keep the powder dry and don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes!
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If that is true (am UK based) I will definitely up my investment, I already have CGT issues as it is, but one investment without being taxed on gains will give it the edge, and put it more on a par with art investments for me. It sounds likely, since Germany has done this and the UK likes to be relatively open-minded on financial markets to support London's position in the world financial system (we don't export much else), so this is good news and will affect Europe generally too. It's not happened yet, but it sounds like it will. I will definitely be increasing my exposure and I will not be alone, I am sure. I concur ... it is a way to make UK seen to be 'progressive' and hip-tech by encouraging financial innovation, yet at the same time keep bitcoin at arms length. Private currency it is I think. Switzerland is going the same way, albeit "foreign currency" classification. Bullish overall i'd say. If this happens it going to be great news, I'd already written off 28% of my BTC holding to Capital Gains Tax (Always best to expect worse case, but hope for the best) but now there is a possibility its effectively tax free! Me too - have been crucified in other areas I had done well in and it increases the margin needed to a point where risk levels become unappealing. It gives BTC an edge - spiffing news, chaps! |
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Gox and Stamp fighting back rather firmly, Huobi just under 5k...
Dump fail?
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Gox 440 sale out of the blue... Hmmm...!
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If that is true (am UK based) I will definitely up my investment, I already have CGT issues as it is, but one investment without being taxed on gains will give it the edge, and put it more on a par with art investments for me. It sounds likely, since Germany has done this and the UK likes to be relatively open-minded on financial markets to support London's position in the world financial system (we don't export much else), so this is good news and will affect Europe generally too. It's not happened yet, but it sounds like it will. I will definitely be increasing my exposure and I will not be alone, I am sure. |
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I hate to sound nostalgic, but it is a little more adversarial and less of a communitarian thing on here.
Maybe it's because we are post all the choo choo times of Nov / Dec...
The majority of posts are still choo choo. Price just hasn't gone to the moon along with them. Personally, I don't find the dynamic particularly adversarial. But I don't take into account the vast majority of posting here. There's a small handful of analysts here that I think provide useful insight on a regular basis. 95% of this forum is trolling etc, and the rest I use to confirm, or compel reassessment of, my position. I wouldn't do that because someone says the price will go up or down; I do it because analysis is compelling -- or because it isn't. Any analysis I post is in the same vein. I'm of the position that a) very few will take my calls seriously enough to act on them, and b) this forum is too insignificant to matter. But to be fair, even Lucif got burnt and learned this lesson -- surely people attempt to manipulate this way. Still, I think posting positions * here has more to do with the psychological push to be "correct." It's funny -- there have certainly been times when I have posted analysis here and been more excited for it to be correct than I have for the profit to be reaped. Silly, really, but that's ego.... Put another way, I think you would have to be very unintelligent at this point to believe you could move the market by posting on this forum. A few years ago, it was more sensible, but you would have to be quite stupid at this point. Perhaps my mistake is giving too much credit to peoples' basic intelligence. * drawing a distinction between trolling and analysis Yeah, didn't mean to be down on this place, and we are supposed to be on a speculation thread. I think we all suffer from wanting to see affirmation of our desires, and confirmation of our predictions, even the best on here display their ego on occasion. However, we all take a little from each call and get a feel for the mood through it, placing different weightings according to the respect we have for the poster concerned, in order to factor this in to our own view. In this respect the thread is an indicator and I am sure it is watched. Sometimes it can even be a contra-indicator (when everyone is most bullish, it is sometimes a bad sign!) I think almost no-one here believes they can move this market anymore, though - because I doubt any of us really has that power. |
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Why always "talking book" when someone expresses an opinion...
Generally, on this specific subforum, it's a valid assumption. I mean more so that it's sort of a moot point. Obviously if I post a buy/sell target, that's my position. But there is this nagging assertion around here that this is done to manipulate price. That seems absurd to me, but I guess some people put a lot more weight on this forum than others. It is definitely done by several in an attempt to manipulate price. It has become a lot more common since the last run up and the influx of new posters. Meanwhile, French Congress met today with panel similar to US hearings and things were pretty much all positive on the Bitcoin front. Good news is coming out every day, so I guess this market is actually over bought afterall. The market seems like it is just going to wait to see what happens in China or eventually there will be such good news that it won't have a choice but to go up. In truth we really don't know if this market is extended or not, because we are creating a new context with which to view bitcoin every week. Personally, I think the longer we hang out between 750-900, the more bullish this is. Eventually, and it might take some while, bitcoin will no longer seem expensive in this range. Quite right - we don't know, but with all the genuinely good news NOT fueling the moon flight, it does seem the market is reticent, so one can but act cautiously..... It seems rational - TA doesn't offer much help if sentiment is wobbly and certainty (China, whatever) is noticeably absent. We have media exposure that would have seemed amazing even months ago, yet we are forced to wait and watch a little, for now. |
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Why always "talking book" when someone expresses an opinion...
Generally, on this specific subforum, it's a valid assumption. I mean more so that it's sort of a moot point. Obviously if I post a buy/sell target, that's my position. But there is this nagging assertion around here that this is done to manipulate price. That seems absurd to me, but I guess some people put a lot more weight on this forum than others. I hate to sound nostalgic, but it is a little more adversarial and less of a communitarian thing on here. Maybe it's because we are post all the choo choo times of Nov / Dec... I have not felt like posting as much for fear of having to justify a quite reasonable position (although I am still always watching). Disclosure - am part fiat (about 25%) a position I have roughly maintained since before Christmas, bar the odd trade on the dips - which I personally think is reasonable right now, until the month's end at least! |
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Besides - the big news in France today will be which of the president's mistresses is actually the First Lady of France.
Why, the hot young blonde one of course. Ooh la la  (seriously though, I feel kind of bad for his long term girlfriend) (ha! take that Americans! Our leaders aren't married, they have *girlfriends* and *mistresses*, and we still elect them!) (it also helps that they aren't climate science deniers ) The French don't like his old partner, she has not made herself popular, but the new one... well, ahem... I guess I can't put my hand on my heart and say I blame him... If Sarko could have Carla Bruni, I guess Hollande wanted to upgrade in a similar fashion, the only new thing is the press are actually talking about it, in the past Mitterand had an entire separate family and no-one in the press discussed it, it was just 'private' and 'irrelevant'. Can't see that happening in 'murica  |
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Ahh ... tracfin guys compares bitcoins to tulips !
President of the commission to "Banque de France" guy : "a deflationary currency, isn't that what you are looking for ?" I think you would know the answer if you were asking someone who works at a central bank |
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Besides - the big news in France today will be which of the president's mistresses is actually the First Lady of France.
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Bad guys use cash.
Bictoin is too volatile !
The young feller makes me nervous with his speedy talk. But as far is i understood their view on Bitcoin is quite neutral. It's a tool among others (existent or yet to come) to do good and bad things, so it is better we try to understand and regulate it than ban/condemn it. to be honest, I think they were objective, which is really positive and good for bitcoin... let the market decide otherwise It is pretty similar to the US senate hearings - mentioning Silk Road / contraband etc... but also the benefits. The guy talking about Bitcoin Central earlier said he didn't know about how many transactions were from France, but he didn't think very many, mostly 'Northern European' (Germany and UK, presumably) as France is a little behind in terms of Bitcoin. I think this point was telling, the French do feel a little behind the curve now that Germany has officially accepted / recognised BTC, while other countries have not (as one guy said). The only problem is how to regulate for TVA (sales tax) and how to classify exchanges etc. This is a very French thing as they like to have regulation (even of their language) and they instinctively want a 'French position'. But in reality they are not big players in the Bitcoin European landscape and in any case will not dare to differ from Germany very much.... The worst that will happen is that they drown BTC exchanges and transactions with a ton of French red tape. |
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so the senate is asking who owns the protocol, and "no one" as an answer seems not convincing enough for him hahahaha
He thinks the network belongs to "big companies"... the Prof talking now makes really good points, more interesting he is objective Edit: so speculation is good? I didn't know that hahahaha, listen from the professor and speculate guys, it is okay he said French customs bought bitcoins ! (in order to catch and arrest some drug dealer) Speed, apparently... tut tut, I though the French had more class than that |
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Been hanging on to some fiat waiting to see how January plays out - I don't feel I have been missing out on much, i dipped back in on the spike over 1000, but only briefly to take a little more fiat. I still am not feeling it's choo choo all the way. Yet. We shall see, but to have no money to take advantage of Golden week / Senate volatility seems imprudent to me... |
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1.4 doesn't work on my mac and my old dogecoin-qt will not sync. Anyone got any ideas?  |
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Gox looking a little high compared to all other markets - by maybe 30 bux over historical gap.
If it stays that way, it is holding things higher then they might be, I wonder if this will last.
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