Bitcoin is an opportunity of a lifetime, rather than an opportunity of every 4 years because, even though it is likely that the 4 year cycle is going to continue to contribute to UPwards price pressures on BTC, there is no guarantees that bitcoin's price is going to perform in alignment with such halvening cycles...

Yet, at the same time, it seems that historically the longer that anyone invests into bitcoin, the better off that they are likely to be.. so in those kinds of terms, the expression "it's time in the market, NOT timing the market" seems to be very applicable to the bitcoin space.

In other words, it is likely better to get into bitcoin sooner rather than later, and to establish some kind of an ongoing plan that allows you to establish and to build your stake into bitcoin in accordance with your own situation.. that may well end up including accumulation of BTC through a variety of methods that might include DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.. and of course, once you start to establish a BTC stake, then you are likely to have more options and continue to have more options as long as you are mostly erroring on the side of building your BTC portfolio rather than fucking around with trying to get in and out or to mess with other kinds of trading scenarios that get caught upon trying to figure out the ups and downs of the 4 year cycles and the extent to which they will continue to occur in some kind of a pattern way... and even with all that it could take a person 2, 3, 4 or more cycles to really establish their BTC stash and to really be able to profit, have options and benefit from likely ongoing compounding effects of the likely ongoing upward price pressures within bitcoin, even while there is likely going to continue to be violent BTC price moves that go in both directions.


I agree with everything that you say in the above post, adzino - however, your suggestion that 2-3 years is a long term investment seems misplaced, and also may well keep people thinking in terms of getting in and out of bitcoin within the period of one 4-year cycle, and for those kinds of reasons it is likely better to suggest that their investment timeline is better to be thought of in terms of at least a 4-year timeline and perhaps even quite longer than that.. 4-10 years or more.. and sure there are likely some exceptions in which someone might have specific needs in which they are not able to invest for at least 4-10 years or more, but then they might have to consider to change a bit of how they allot into bitcoin (perhaps taking a smaller position).. and surely there are ways to trade the BTC market which surely are on shorter time-frames, but trading is not really an "investment" practice for the vast majority of normal people, since it takes some special skills to figure out how to benefits from trading without overly risking principle.


Of course, I largely agree with these points, but you have framed the matter a bit strangely, and maybe that is because people frequently frame these kinds of investment allocation matters in weird and nonspecific ways.  There are not very many people who are able to go into bitcoin with 100% of their cash reserves, and for the vast majority of people, they are going to need to have cash on hand and maybe even other investments, so it is likely erroneous to even be saying that they are 100% into bitcoin or any other investment - except maybe if they are saying that they have an investment portfolio, and their investment portfolio is 100% into bitcoin, which seems like it might end up happening from time to time.

Sometimes we might need to flesh out what we mean in term of how aggressive that we might be in an investment, and if we can figure out how much savings/investments that we have totally (what is the size of our networth), and figure out our cashflow and then figure out from there how much we might have available on a monthly basis to be able to put into bitcoin, then those are going to be helpful exercises that also help us to better explain and to be specific in regards to how we are talking about how aggressive that we might be in terms of building our bitcoin holdings.

And, surely you are valid in terms of making your overall criticisms that individuals who try to go into bitcoin really heavily prior to the halvening and then wait to cash out after the halvening, might end up in a kind of problematic kind of approach to how they think about their bitcoin investment and whether or not if they are able to accomplish their goals, which also might be to attempt to acquire more BTC when the price drops back down (presuming that the price might drop back down at some point after it goes up).

Personally, I do believe that it is good to attempt to project out your expected cashflows and then to create a budget for your bitcoin that involves lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips, and the extent to which anyone might be considering selling BTC in order to buy back lower, I would caution to consider those selling to buy more BTC as being inferior techniques and even inferior ways of thinking about how to accumulate bitcoin - if we presume that a lot of people are likely in BTC accumulation mode - except that a lot of people are so short term in their thinking that they have inabilities to actually think in terms of long term BTC accumulation rather than short-term pleasures that they might get from cashing out some or all of their BTC at various points (which ends up putting them with way fewer - and perhaps no BTC) and more cash, so they feel that they have profited from their transaction in the short-term... which might not end up playing out so well in terms of long term possibilities.. and the way that so many folks end up cashing out way too many BTC too soon, and then they later become bitter in regards to their failure to recognize and appreciate bitcoin as long-term wealth-building strategy.. and it is a matter of proportions in terms of how to feel that you do not have to sell too many BTC too soon or that you do not have to feel that you need to overly stock up on Bitcoin out of hopes that you are going to be able to cash some of that out upon a BTC price run.. which can get you into trouble if the BTC price does not move in the direction that you would like and in the timeline that you would like.


Sure some people are gambling with their bitcoin stash and their approach to bitcoin, and there as you suggested there are dangers in taking a gambling approach to bitcoin that involves overly investing with money that you could not afford to lose in the event that the BTC price does not move in the direction that is expected and within the timeline that had been expected.

At the same time, there are a decently large number of ways to take a fairly assertive and aggressive approach to bitcoin investing without necessarily getting maniacally focused on the need for short-term BTC price moves to the upside and also apportioning BTC investment risks in such a way that you are prepared for either BTC price direction, while expecting that downside scenarios are not as likely as upside scenarios, especially in the longer term and if you can withstand/tolerate that downside scenarios may well end up playing out in the short term - which may well be either opportunities to buy more BTC or at least to NOT sell, even if you might have run out of money to buy more BTC while the price seems to be going down (or staying down) for degrees of DOWNity severity and for periods of time that are much longer than had been anticipated to be possible.

Of course, there are all kinds of people in bitcoin who approach bitcoin from perspectives that may or may not end up paying off for them - and in that regard, each person has to figure out the extent to which s/he considers bitcoin as some kind of a compliment to other investments that they have (such as property, stocks, bonds, commodities) or if they might consider that bitcoin is going to serve as their only investment (besides having cash) in which they are building their wealth to a point in which they consider that further diversification is something that they will likely do later down the road after they have built up their bitcoin investment portfolio to size in which it might start to feel that too much value is in there.. whether that is when the get to an investment portfolio that is 20% of their annual income 100% of their annual income 2-5x of their annual income or some other number in which they determine that they might have too much of their value in one asset (namely bitcoin, which we know to be a quite volatile asset to have a large portion of value into it.. and perhaps considering the extent to which their are back up funds and assets that might be available to draw upon during bitcoin downity periods.. and those other investments likely do not need to be shitcoins .. but instead other asset classes that are less likely to be specifically correlated to bitcoin, which again would be things like property, stocks, bonds and commodities.

You come off as wee bit ill-informed blckhawk.

Part of the nature of an investment into bitcoin is that it is an asymmetric bet to the upside, so if you put in $1k, the most that you are going to lose is $1k.  You can be as aggressive or whimpy as you like in terms of the amount that you invest, but if you go overboard, and become overly aggressive, then you may well end up recking yourself.  Also, if you are overly whimpy, then it may take a long time (if ever) for the amount that you invested to become a meaningful amount, and of course, there are no guarantees that you are either going to profit stupendously or that bitcoin might not end up going to zero... even though if you study bitcoin for a bit, you likely will realize that bitcoin's investment thesis is pretty damned strong since it is a paradigm shifting asset class that is likely facilitating and going to continue to facilitate the greatest peaceful wealth transfer in history.... for those who are so bold to get some bitcoin, in case it catches on.

So each person is responsible for their own decisions regarding whether to invest into bitcoin and how much to invest into bitcoin in accordance with their own individual circumstances, and also it likely would be better to learn about bitcoin too, but surely there are a lot of people who invest into bitcoin but really don't even know anything about bitcoin except for the belief that it is number go up (NGU) technology.


That's true.. the halvening is too short of a timeline... and even in the longer term we cannot completely know that bitcoin will end up going up, even though if you study into bitcoin and try to identify and figure out what it is, then you likely realize that bitcoin has a pretty damned strong investment thesis.. and so part of the prudence of investing into it, is that sure, you could lose everything that you invested, but at the same time, there are various scenarios in which pretty high payoffs could play out in relatively short periods of time,


....and perhaps BTC's value is around 1,000x or higher than gold, but it could take 100 or 200 years to reach such prices, even if it were to happen, or it could happen more quickly.. but there are too many unknowns in terms of trying to figure out specifics, even if we might realize that there are ongoing and continuous upwards pressures upon BTC prices... which have to do with what it is, which is the strongest and most sound money ever created/discovered (up until now). .. and if you look at the situation, there is nothing that we can see that is likely even close to a competitor to bitcoin currently or likely to happen, since there is a need for a 10x improvement in order to kick out the incumbent, and bitcoin is way better than a 10x improvement in any system that it is replacing, too.

Of course, if you are either currently in profits or you are in profits in the future, then you have more options, and you feel better about your holding bitcoin, but still, there is no guarantee that you will ever be in profits, even though the odds for your being in profits are greater once you are already in profits.

Whether I am stating the obvious or not, there are a lot of ways to measure how much of a gain that you are getting out of having bitcoin as one of your options, and historically, those people who have been able to mostly error on the side of accumulating bitcoin and holding onto their bitcoin have tended to have done a lot better than those people who have cashed out of bitcoin.. especially if they are cashing out large portions of your bitcoin.

Another thing is that it makes a pretty big difference if you have built up less than a year of an investment portfolio versus if you have built up an investment portfolio that has a value that is somewhere in the 20-30 years worth of your cost of living.  You have way more options in the second case, so it may well not really matter very much (or make much of a difference) in your life if you are fucking around too much and counting profits in regards to having ONLY a small investment portfolio, such as one that is less than one year of your income, and it can take a decently long time to get your investment portfolio to the size of 20-30 years of your income..

....so for example, if you spend 10 years saving and investing 10% of your salary, then maybe in 10 years you have invested/saved a whole years worth of income.. but you also might have to count on the value of your investment sufficiently increasing in order to keep up with the cost of living increases.. so that creates another challenge in regards to where you put your investment portfolio value and how such investment portfolio ends up performing - including that if you might end up spending 10 years to 30 years really getting to a place in which you have figured out how to balance your investment portfolio and that maybe the value of your investment portfolio can start to compound upon itself in order to perhaps start to do some of the work for you in terms of gaining in value, but at the same time, you have to consider both gaining in value, as well as making sure that you are not taking too many risks of losing your principle because you are trying to rush the compounding in value process.

No one can tell you exactly how to strike those kinds of balances, and the extent to which moving your value around whether that is from bitcoin into dollars or into other kinds of assets is going to bring the right kinds of balances in order to keep your investment portfolio growing sufficiently well in order that it's value gets you to a place in which you feel that you are building up a sufficient quantity of adequate options...

and none of it is guaranteed... even though many of us believe that building a bitcoin portfolio is good and keeping a certain amount of ongoing value in bitcoin is good too.. and some of us are not considering cashing out into dollars or anything else except perhaps in small kinds of ways rather than BIGGER kinds of ways that might end up putting us into too many dollars and not enough bitcoin...

So where is your balance?  The answer now is likely going to be different than it is at various points down the road as maybe each of us has to tweak our BTC (and other forms of wealth) accumulation, maintenance and liquidation plans at various points during our journeys.

It's a bit ironic that your buys do not start until into the $24ks (more than $2,500 below the 200-week moving average, as as it currently stands at about $26,925.  

Of course, my buys are a bit lopsided based on my still having to recover from the UPpity trauma (on June 20 on BinanceUS) that I had experienced in accidentally coming across more cash (or cash equivalents to the extent that USDT might be considered a "cash equivalent") than I had expected...

Well after I bought back more BTC than I sold, my problem still included continuing to have both more cash and more bitcoin, but I still believe that since then I have remained a bit more lopsided on the cash side rathe than the bitcoin side, and so in that regard, I continue to have some preferences towards buying BTC sooner rather than later and therefore my spreads are not very BIG and there remain lopsided in terms of buying BTC.

Even if I had not had my little issue on June 20, I probably still would either be buying BTC well before $24ks.. but hey, there surely can be individual variations in regards to both how much cash we might consider that we might have in comparison to our bitcoins... and surely in your case through mining you have BTC coming in regularly, so you likely end up developing selling biases.

I supposed I could reveal a little bit more of my insider situation in regards to how the sausage is made (to the extent that it is not just a piece of fiction).. and to say that I had not removed any of my BTC buy orders down to $10k-ish (which I had largely ended up establishing between about June/July 2022 and November/December 2022, and I am being a bit abstract because it seems to me that I had to make several adjustments during that time, which also was to allow me to continue to add to my various BTC buy orders in order to have them to go down lower and with the passage of time, to increase the amounts that I had placed in the lower BTC buy orders.. so those buy orders are largely still there - even though I don't expect them to get filled .. .and with the passage of time, I expect to be able to remove them and for them to serve as extra money that I can spend at my convenience.. especially since I do not expect the BTC price to go down as far as I have those lower BTC buy orders set, but so far, the money is still there.. just because it is extra that I don't really need at the moment.  

So after my June 20 "accident," I mostly went through all of the BTC buy orders from around $25k and all the way down to around $10k (and they are in about $500 increments), and I pretty much doubled the amounts in each of them, and then I looked at how much cash I had left, and I pretty much put that remaining cash into BTC buy orders between $26k and $30k (several buy orders that would not have otherwise been there.. and in order to use up that extra cash in case the BTC price drops.. but if the BTC price does not drop, I don't give too many shits, because I already have structured my orders how I like), and sure some of that extra money has been spent when the BTC price dipped to the higher levels of the range - down to $30k-ish and upper $29ks - but it seems that on June 20/21, the BTC price largely did a little stairstep escalation towards the UPpity.. and then the BTC price has largely NOT gone back below $29.5k in the past month....

A good thing?  A bad thing?  I think that I am largely in a position that I do not give too many shits.. and largely, the same as many of us expecting the BTC price to be moving up with the passage of time, but even in the long term, if we were to get stuck here (which seems unlikely - in part since the 200-week moving average still seems to be a thingie, and it is ongoingly and consistently moving upwardly.. around $14 per day)... to repeat... currently at about $26,925.

What are the chances that the BTC prices are going to correct back below the 200-week moving average?  If so how long would it stay there this time?  How much are you going to put into those kinds of bets that seem to be less likely than other ways to structure your preparations?

Merely because we had experienced some flukes (largely between June 2022 and February 2023) and a large period below the 200-week moving average, it does seem a wee bit foolish to expect odds to be very great to again go below the 200-week moving average for either any enduring period of time beyond some flash corrections that may or may not end up happening... and of course, many of us who might have BTC buy orders below the 200-week moving average, may well not expect it to be very likely that they are going to fill, so the filling of those buy orders (if it were to occur) would likely not make any kind of BIG difference to our overall stash - except maybe providing some smaller levels of psychological and/or financial insurance in order to allow any kind of suffering (of downity) to be a wee bit less painful than it would be if those buy orders had not been there.

That's




DeFAmatIon!!!!!!!!!!

the substance of that looks familiar.

It's like a read it somewhere, when I wrote it.

Never can go wrong with down before up.


You do know.  Down before up.  Member?


Yeah.

Waiting for the "real run."  Yep.


But even if it does not run.. Let's say it just goes up 6% per year (or maybe 6% on top of whatever might be the cost of living).  It seems that dee cornz would still be a great investment... "We" should not need any crazy-ass UPpity in order to profit stupendously from our investment in dee cornz - especially the longer that we have been in, then the more likely that we are in profits, but even those folks who started out DCA investing in BTC in January 2021 are likely in profits as long as they kept buying BTC regularly, and the longer that any of us has been in (including DCA'ing into BTC) the better...

By the way, I understand that BTC does not really do gradual (and stable) rises, so we are likely going to be experiencing outrageous outbursts from time to time that may well go in either price direction, and even if we were to go up 6% per year (in real terms), it can feel quite traumatic to go through BIG ass price waves, even if the BTC price may well overall be gravitating in the UPpity direction - not guaranteed, but surely BTC seems quite likely to continue to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside.. not even sure if it is going UP off of the efforts of others.. or is it just going UP as an act of GOD?  #asking for my lil religious fiend


Remember that Bitcoin is not mature asset class, and we are having a battle that potentially (or should I say likely?) involves the greatest transfer of wealth in history. 

You cannot assess the price movements of dee cornz merely by the use of technical analysis or even momentum or even reason or even fractals.. and accordingly battles need to play out, including constantly newer and newer players coming into the space (and some of them with greater wealth than others), and even if some retail is getting scared out, and chased out, some retail (and earlier HODLers) are not leaving.. but that does not stop the BIG BOYS from wanting to teach HODLers a lesson.. which may or may not be as easy to accomplish as they might presume that they have been able to do in their traditional market play grounds... .

Some of them might know about bitcoin, and others are still learning, and one of the easier ways to learn is to get burnt.. which there were quite a few burns in 2022.. but then there were likely some of the traditional fucktwats who escaped from some of the 2022 burnings.


I wonder if he is still HODLing.

That post was from a year ago, and if he kept buying the whole time, then he would have brought his average cost per BTC down quite a bit. 

If he front loaded at $69k (if any of that is true) and then ended up keeping on buying, he still may well NOT be in profits (depending on how much he had been able to buy in the last year or so), but he likely would be close to being able to get into profits, rather than a mere HODL strategy.. that would keep his average cost per BTC at $69k.. which makes it a bit more difficult to get back into profits and also into a place of greater comfort.

That's part of the reason that I am so triggered by those who lump sum buy at the top, and then just sit on their hands for an extended period of time while the BTC price is dipping.. it makes little sense, even though I know people employ those kinds of gambling tactics in which they blow their wadd (load) way too soon... and then they are not ready, willing and able to continue to buy and to really cause themselves to have more solid holdings but also stronger hands, and likely better psychological health.

Personally, I don't really like the idea of just HODLing, in terms of its general applicability, even though I recognize and appreciate that there will be some situations in which lump sum buying and then just HODLing makes sense and also people can do whatever they believe works for their situation - and their lil selfies, even if it might not be the best of practices.. at least from the perspective of this here cat.

Let me try to flesh out what I am trying to say a wee bit MOAR better.

Most people are likely not in a position to just lump sum buy bitcoin at some price and then just sit on their investment for years and years and years, and many times, it will take quite a few years and likely several cycles for the investment into bitcoin to really compound upon itself in order to put the BTC into a kind of solid value.. but also perhaps trajectorying the BTC buyer/hodler into a kind of fuck you status (if s/he was not already at fuck you status when starting the investment).

Many people are likely going to need to invest in bitcoin several times and keep investing in order to get into a position that is likely comfortable and sufficiently aggressive, because even if we presume some already decent level of knowledge about BTC at the time of the initial investment, it also seems likely that the investor is going to learn more about bitcoin and learn more about himself/herself in order to justify adding to the BTC position - or perhaps going through some other kinds of BTC management that may well include additional BTC accumulation (rather than resting upon a one-time lump sum buy that might have taken place years earlier).

I understand that there are likely some exceptions to the case in which lump sum investing makes sense, including people who might be very old and going from accumulation to liquidation and kind of skipping the maintenance stage... and also when someone buys at some point in which the BTC price ended up going up - without ever coming back down to the initial buy price, then as long as the person bought enough BTC, there may be no need to buy more.. and the main question might just be choosing points in which to sell various parts (never really selling all of it.. absent some extreme circumstances such as somewhat known end-of-life situations).


Flip a coin.  

Here's a short and sweet video clip (less than a minute) to help 'splainening it for uie-pooie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAXxkcVvzV4

 

You make several good points in your post TSC.. and in regards to this last point, I would elaborate that there are a lot of members who do not necessarily write well, and I am not even saying that my writing style is the greatest because I know that sometimes I ramble and repeat myself a bit, but there comes some luxury when any of us have been around for a while that sometimes we will get merits for mediocre posts because members feel that they know us from our other posts. 

Accordingly, I would say that if you are a newer member, then you likely have to try to spend time to write higher quality posts in order that members will want to read your posts and thereby end up getting to know you whether they like what you say or not.  I don't even necessarily need to agree with posts that are fairly well presented or they have some good points that are either well-expressed or seeming to come from an experiential or otherwise informed perspective.  Of course, sometimes smerits will get sent merely because there is some kind of humor in the post, but if you are not somehow weaving some seriousness in with your humor, you might not have as much luck getting merits because non-contextual humor may well be interpreted as trolling by quite a few members (including members who have smerits at their disposal to be able to send in the event that they come across what they believe to be a "merit-worthy" post.

So in regards to writing quality, it seems to me that writing quality can be improved, and it will help to have some decent writing skills to get your point across, but having good writing skills is not necessarily a condition precedent to receive smerits... - even though surely it can help to either have decent writing skills or just to recognize that if your writing skills are not very good, then to go over your post several times in order to help you to improve your writing skills.. and especially helpful while you are a new member, and after members get to know you, then you can likely be more lackadaisical in your writing/presentation skills - but having had gone through a period of meticulousness (in posting) will likely end up improving your writing skills in such a way that you end up expressing yourself better without even having to try as hard as you had to try when you were in the process of improving such writing/presentation skills..

Oh, and by the way, sometimes a decent number of non-native English speakers/writers wrongly believe that they have to write/speak formally in order to be understood or even to use proper words, which surely is not the case; however, in the beginning it probably is better to learn and present with the more formal versions of writing so that you know the difference between formal presentations and informal presentations... so if you are going informal, then you know that you are doing it.. rather than not really knowing what the fuck you are doing and just spouting out a bunch of informal nonsense that might "kind of be understood," yet most of the time, members are not going to want to try to figure out what kind of puzzle that you had presented. 

Maybe another point might be that part of the reason that any of us might give any shits about our audience could be either reputation and/or wanting to get recognition and responses, such as receiving merits or just substantive comments/help to our concerns.  At the same time, it is not exactly necessary that anyone gives many shits about his/her reputation - but at the same time, it is not as likely to receive smerits if other members cannot really relate to you or consider you as a disingenuine poster... In other words, you are not really prejudiced greatly from not receiving smerits if you are largely just wanting to read forum threads, but if you want to have some kind of "meaningful" interactive participation with other members, and of course, some newbies want to be able to "earn" money on the forum, then it is more likely that you are going to want to earn merits in order to show contribution which will increase likelihoods that you might be accepted into a signature campaign or some other kind of a project or even receiving a loan (if there are members who are loaning to lower ranking members?)

You are speaking gobbledy gook.

You say the BTC price is going to reach a new all time high before the halvening or a yearly high?

The halvening is next year, so any price is going to be a yearly high next year, and then this year, we have around $32k as our yearly high, so far.. so what are you talking about, Willis?

What's it mean?

I don't want to accuse you too much, prematurely.

 


Especially since you are very sensitive.

 


Those really do suck... Also in terms of content, character and even something realistic.. or do sonnets have to lie  and make shit up?..   I think think that it has to be prompted and told what kind of characters go along with the names, otherwise we don't have any controversy.. nor good versus evil that is within each of us, or something disagreeable.., and maybe even emotional, maybe a few "go fuck yourselves" thrown in there, too?  who wants to read or sing that..? 

Anyone?

Anyone?



Cornz no does not give no fucks.. (notHaiku).


Zoom out does not provide a signal for you to go even further into lala landia.

When someone says zoom out, they are trying to bring you back to reality, and instead, you seem to have gone the other direction... into fantasy landia.



Zoom back in, SamReomo!!!!!!!

Get a grip.



Don't go full tard.


Never go full tard.

There is no need to diversify within crypto... Bitcoin is the leading coin, and really the ONLY one with value.. so if there is some kind of need to diversify, or "not put all of your eggs in one basket," then it may well be o.k. to put value into a variety of other sectors, which might be property, equities (stocks), forms of cash/bonds, commodities (such as gold).. yet again, in these kinds of cases in which someone is ONLY investing $10 per month into bitcoin or even ONLY $100 per month, it may take a pretty long time before they are even into a position in which there is even any need to diversify... Let's say for example someone has a salary that is $40k per year, and they are investing $100 per week, after a year, they will have ONLY reached around 10% or perhaps 20% of their annual income into their investment, and surely at that point, maybe they might start to consider diversifying.. but I hardly think that it pays to diversify until you reach a certain threshold of investment portfolio size.. so some people might need $50k or so before they are starting to feel that they have too many eggs in one basket, and others might start to feel that way around $5k.. .. so there would be some individual variance, but if you are not a very rich person (such as you are poor) and you do not have very much experience investing, you do really help your situation by losing focus and diversifying for the mere sake of diversification.. that would be referred to as deworsification, not diversification.

So if we are a newbie to investing, and we have determined that bitcoin is a good investment, then we may well spend 4-10 years or longer just building our bitcoin investment and maybe the ONLY other asset that we have is cash.. and so we are balancing our cash and our bitcoin, and then after we get our bitcoin stash to a certain size then maybe sometime down the road we might want to take some out and put it into equities (stock), property, commodities.. but not necessarily any kind of need to fuck around with shitcoins.. unless there is something that might become apparent in terms of adding some value that might not be completely depending upon what is happening with bitcoin for its value.. and sure there could be some industries that might have some fundamental value that are in the altcoin/shitcoin space or somehow related to bitcoin and bitcoin development rather than directly buying bitcoin.


Fuck shitcoins... and the various distractions regarding whatever is meant by "crypto trading harsh seas" because there is really no need to trade.. but instead build a build a bitcoin position by buying (and holding) and it might take several years.. maybe even more than 10 years before starting to really feel comfortable and like a decent amount of value has been built and wealth creation has taken place.. and perhaps some of the wealth creation had come through BTC price appreciation that may well come through the years, even if there might be ups and downs along the way.. there seems to be hardly any reason to fuck around with trying to trade the various ups and downs along the way. instead of just consistently stacking, and generally it is not a good idea to try to get more bitcoin by selling.. rather than by ongoingly employing a variety of buying techniques such as lump sum buying, DCA and buying on dips.

You are NOT describing procrastination.

If you are lacking in resources or some other aspect (even conviction), and then you delay based on those kinds of reasons, then those kinds of behaviors do not fit within the definition of procrastination.  In order to fit within the definition of procrastination, you have to have the resources and/or all of the necessary items in order to carry out the task (bitcoin buy in this case).


Fuck shitcoins.  We are not talking about shitcoins in this thread.


You tell them that they are 100% responsible for anything that they choose to do, including whether or not to invest into bitcoin and how much to invest into bitcoin.  They have to figure out those kinds of details themselves, including figuring out if they might have had made a mistake by investing into bitcoin without blaming anyone except for themselves for any decisions and/or action that they choose to take, even if they were relying on some person who happens to have had been wrong and/or overly passionate (about bitcoin).


If you say it is a matter of patience, then you are implying that there is some kind of guarantee, and there is not.

The better way to think about the subject of bitcoin investing into the future is that it is a matter of position size, so you take a position based on how probable you believe that the BTC price might go up versus going to zero (or some other scenario(s) in which you do not profit.

So if you place $1,000 into bitcoin, and it goes to zero you have lost $1k, however, there are scenarios in which your $1k could go up to $2k, $5k, $100k, 1,000k or some other amount, so you can weigh the probability of the various possible outcomes to consider how much of a position size (allocation) into bitcoin that you believe would be good for you in case some kind of an UPpity scenario were to take place rather than some other scenario, including a downity or sideways scenario.


Yeah.. but we already know that with bitcoin, you don't need a lot of money.  You ONLY need to have money that is extra (that you can afford to invest) that goes beyond the money you need for expenses, such as eating, lodging, transportation, entertainment, emergency expenses, etc.  Once you figure out that you have $1 extra per week that you can afford to invest, then you can put that $1 per week into bitcoin, and surely it helps to have more, but you can ONLY do what you can in terms of how much money that you are able to generate as being extra that you don't need, and it is likely that having had invested into bitcoin will give more options than if you had chosen not to invest into bitcoin... but of course, since the payoff of investing into bitcoin is not guaranteed, you still have to figure out how much to invest and how aggressive to be in terms of your bitcoin investment, in the event that you have some discretion in regards to the amount that you are able to put in.


Surely some people have tight cashflows at various points in their lives, and then in those cases, it probably would either not be wise to invest into bitcoin or to adjust their position size to a lower amount that is within their budget.


I agree with everything you say here - except that you don't necessarily need to be attempting to play the waves and to sell when it goes up and buy back lower, even though it could be prudent to engage in some kind of BTC portfolio management that involves selling some as the price goes up or at various higher prices in the event that you can recognize higher prices and in the event that you might not end up with fewer BTC because you did not time your sell properly (meaning that you end up selling too much too early).

Another way of thinking about the matter is just buy BTC and continue to buy BTC and perhaps buy more when the price goes down and to buy fewer if you believe that the price is going up too quickly.. but then it is not easy to determine these kinds of matters, even though there are probably ways to continue to buy BTC and then to figure out at what point you have enough BTC or that you have too many BTC.. which makes it easier to sell BTC as the price goes up if you have too many and the quantity of BTC that you are selling is not going to cause you to regret not having them if they BTC price keeps going up after the time that you sold them.


Yeah.. but we are not talking about crypto or shitcoins here, so why do you need to bring up such an amorphous and meaningless concept.  Who the fuck knows what you mean, when you say there is something going on in "crypto?"

The mere fact that others uses such dumb and amorphous terms, including mainstream media and including that uneducated people use such dumb language, does not mean that we should be repeating such meaningless gobbledy gook ways of speaking.   

Hint:  If you are talking about bitcoin, then use the term bitcoin, but if you are talking about something else, then say what you are talking about rather than making some kind of vague reference that does not really have meaning... "I am invested in cryptocurrencies."  That's a meaningless statement that does not tell us what the fuck you are invested into... specify.. what it is that you are talking about so that we have some kind of idea, instead of just spouting out some vague and meaningless reference.

Arguably inflammatory words are added for emphasis and by discretion.  People don't necessarily exercise their discretion in similar ways, and whether I could have made my point as well or not likely depends upon what point that I thought that I was striving to make, which might not be the same as what point you might have thought that I was trying to make.

When I read back through the above post, it seems to me that I found your comment in your first paragraph about El Salvador making their own coin (which I emphasized above) to be retarded and the way that shitcoiners think.. and the way the current fiat system works and bitcoin takes us away from printing your own money and trying to establish confidence based on bitcoin, as a system, already being separate from El Salvador, which would not be the same as if they were to make their own coin.. which is what many countries have done in the past and have frequently (if not always) failed at such money printing that is likely not based on shit, even though they say that it is.. and bitcoin fixes this... hopefully it fixes your retardedness, too?  Otherwise, if you want to explain how the fuck El Salvador would be able to print their own coin and either not appear to be engaging in the same bullshit money inflation, whether they were to do it in digital form or some other way?

You have to figure out a strategy that works for you.

If you are earlier in your bitcoin journey, then likely you should just be buying bitcoin regularly within your budget, and not fucking around with trying to figure out if there is a dip or not a dip.  In other words, figuring out the dip is likely a position of someone who is already mostly secure in the various positions of their investment portfolio, especially including having comfort with how much bitcoin that they have.

After you have started to accumulate some bitcoin, you might be able to figure out points in time in which you start to feel that you have enough, or that you want to supplement your buying by trying to time some aspects of a dip within perhaps certain quantities or maybe within certain timelines, because also presumably you have cashflow coming in on a regular basis as well that would then likely figure into how much extra (disposable) cash that you have available to you at that particular time (or various times coming into the future, you would be able to foresee how much cashflow that you have coming in and the arrival of those cashflows would thereafter also end up affecting your budget).



Yes.. for sure you have to account for BTC price history and where we are at and also try to identify if you have some ideas about momentum, direction and/or if any changes might be coming in the price direction, and surely the 80% or more price drops are also measuring from the top to the bottom, and we are in the middle of such correction of previous price drop from $69k to $15,479....

Don't be too greedy waiting for an 80% price dip from here.. or even getting back to the low point of this particular cycle, when even though those are not zero probability events, they are also probably not very likely, either.

It could be possible that we will never see below $30k again, but of course, sub $30k is close to our current price since the price is currently $30,400 as I type this post.  .. and so the further down you go, $28.5k, or $26k or $24k or $20k, the more difficult it is likely to be that we would reach each of those price targets, so you likely would be a bit of a fool if you are too busy preparing for down and failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in the event that down does not happen and even down to the level that you might be expecting to happen.

If you are brand new to bitcoin, and you have $12k over the next 6 months, but some of that you have currently available, maybe you would divide that into three and buy $4k immediately, DCA with the other $4k and then figure out some kind of a buying on dip plan iwth the remaining $4k, and how far you plan for your buys on the way down (and in what increments) would be a personal question, and again, I would not consider it too wise to fuck around with all or nothing strategies, but bit you have some budget and you have already put some value into BTC, then you would have more freedoms to take chances on the remaining portion to be able to buy at lower BTC prices, while realizing at the same time that the lower prices may well not end up happening, and then questioning yourself if you would be o.k. with that result or would that result cause you to panic and to end up buying while the BTC price is going up rather than your ability to figure out a BTC buying plan that is more comfortable and that you can live with whichever way that the BTC price ends up moving.


I cannot disagree with these points.


I doubt that anyone is going to completely catch the bottom, but hey do what you like.  And regarding selling, this thread is not about selling but instead about long term holding.  If you want to talk about selling, take that shit somewhere else... to some other thread.


You are all over the place with these questions.  So we had a bottom in November 2022 of $15,479, but the BTC price shot up to $32k, and we have been mostly bouncing around in the upper $20ks for 6months, with a few corrections along the way.  So do you want to talk about the last 6 months and whether the BTC price is going to correct again?  How does anyone know those kinds of things?  Part of the reason for preparing for either BTC price direction in terms of your budget and your psychology is so that you are not going to be disappointed no matter which way the BTC price goes in the short term, especially if you cannot really know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term.  You seem to be trying to suggest that there is some way to have some kind of confidence regarding BTC short-term price direction, which seems to be a trading mindset rather than long term investing, which is the topic of this thread.


We are not talking about any of those traditional asset classes, including that bitcoin is not a mature asset class, and it also is likely not correlated to those markets and also there are likely dynamics in bitcoin that include exponential s-curve adoption... that will likely cause you to get fucked, and even more fucked then you seem to be trying to be because you are failing/refusing to appreciate bitcoin for what it is and trying to be smart and act like you know about markets, and applying those same ideas to bitcoin.

Good luck with that, you are going to need it.. even if you might end up being correct in the short term, if you fail/refuse to stock up on bitcoin for the long term or have long term ideas about it, then you likely are going to be having a hard time down the road.. whether that is a few years from now or maybe 6-10 years from now or some other time period in which you realize that you don't have many or any bitcoin, and you sufficiently knew about bitcoin but you failed to stack sats. and you fucked around with trading bitcoin (and valuing it in dollars) rather than really recognizing its world changing dynamics, its greatest wealth transfer in history dynamics and its paradigm shifting dynamics.

Probably you need to study bitcoin a bit more, rather than either studying trading strategies or trying to spread information about trading strategies, when you aren't even on topic here because you are missing some presumptions of this thread which is that within this thread, we are already presuming bitcoin to be a good long term investment - and that is why we are not talking about selling and/or trading (which seems to be your perspective).


We are not talking about shitcoins here.  We are talking about bitcoin.  Do you know what is bitcoin?

Why are you using the term cryptocurrencies?  We are not talking about that in this thread.


Sure... We know that bottom fishing can go on in any market, but so what?  Also focus on bitcoin rather than all of the various bullshit related to some kind of an amorphous concept such as Cryptocurrencies, since there are 20,000 or more cryptocurrencies, and some of those markets are more liquid than others...

So even we focus specifically on bitcoin, bitcoin has a lot of markets within it, and surely there are various financial tools that are being developed, which could also cause some of those folks to get reckt when the markets are not very regulated and perhaps the third party offering the service does not have the coins that it claims to have.. so again, instead of speaking broadly, narrow your analysis down to bitcoin if you feel that you have some points that you want to make regarding likely manipulations that might be happening, in either price direction (which you seem to be wanting to focus on manipulation in the downwards direction).. 


You sound distracted.

Which is the head and which is the tail?    does the head wag the tail or does the tail wag the dog?

Do you have any clues about that?

If we are considering what kinds indicators or what kinds of happenings in the world or what kinds of things potentially affect bitcoin prices, I thing that folks are going to get quite lost if they get overly focused on shitcoins, even if there might be short term price affects that are caused (or contributed) from various shitcoins, but if we are considering bitcoin as a long term investment, then why get distracted with that nonsense - including short-term BTC price moves that might come from those kinds of things - except surely we are talking about the possibilities of taking advantage of BTC price dips that might come from a variety factors and for a variety of reasons, including things happening in shitcoins, so then maybe we might have some buy orders at various price locations or maybe we are planning to execute our buy orders manually at various price points, if they were to occur.


You spend a lot of time focusing on whether bitcoin has bottomed, and now you are determining that it has bottomed.  Go figure?

Still seems good to prepare for either price direction.. and how much you might have in your budget for buying on various dips and at what price levels should be something that people can decide... so for example, if someone (from my earlier example) has something like $4k in cash in his/her budget for buying BTC on dips, and if s/he already bought bitcoin, then maybe he would have buy orders down every $500, and whether s/he goes down to $28k or $26k or $20k could affect how much s/he sets at each of the increments.



Fuck shitcoins.. we are not talking about which ones might be less shitty than others.. so take that nonsense somewhere else, it is not related to this thread.

I believe that it is not a very realistic scenario that people who recognize and appreciate bitcoin at $50k or more to be a good investment, to lump sum into bitcoin and to just sit on their hands for the next year or two and wait to be back in profits.  Yeah sure some people gamble like that, but it does not seem to be a very smart position to just lump sum in and then fail/refuse to buy any more BTC until getting back into profits, so in that regard, if they continue to buy, then their average price per BTC should end up coming down.. even though the specific BTC that they bought at or near the top would still have those high prices that will take a while for those specific BTC to get back into profits (if they ever do).. by the way, if you keep buying BTC in the past couple of years, you do not have to have all of your coins to get into profits in order to profit from your investment by bringing down your average cost per BTC by continuing to buy at prices that are lower than your average purchase price and to continue to bring down your average cost per BTC.


Yeah.. but newbies do not necessarily need to figure out all of the particulars to bitcoin in order to continue to invest in DCA kinds of ways and to have good chances of profiting in the long run.  DCA is meant to be a strategy that anyone can use, whether they know anything about bitcoin or know nothing about bitcoin, and an ongoing DCA practice is likely going to give options to people but surely how profitable they are or how long it takes to get into profits or even how long that they choose to follow such DCA practices can surely vary between people.

I like it.  I like it.

my added emphasis



Yes.. the smartest guys in the room do have tendencies to take their profits, and then they end up whine that they could have had bitcoin at "blah blah blah" 80% lower than current price.


Since your mama.

 


oh gawd....

 


You too?

That's not true.

Diversification is a wealth preservation technique, not a wealth creation technique.

It is likely that if you are starting out without having a lot of resources, then it is better to NOT diversify, even though surely it can take a long time to build wealth to such an extent that it starts to make sense to diversify... and people will arrive at those decisions about how much and when to diversify at different times, but surely diversification is meant to protect your investment rather than growing your investment - even though it is possible that you could have some portions of your investment that are more directed at growth, and then other areas of your investment that are more likely to conserve value.

The devil is in the details regarding how much and/or when to branch out... 


Ok.. at first you were talking about building wealth, and now you are talking about preserving wealth... ..


For sure trading is another story that brings risk and needs to learn, so there is no way to determine whether it would be a good idea to fuck around with trading or gambling and act like you are investing.. when trading and gambling are not really needed for investing.. even if you might choose to play around with some parts of your investment portfolio with trading or even selling on the way up and buying on the way down, and perhaps you are not gambling with those kinds of techniques, but generally it is not a good idea to sell merely to buy back later at a lower price if you don't really know if you might be selling too much too soon, and you may well be better off just ongoingly buying rather than selling, especially if you have a good investment like bitcoin, then you may really screw up a potentially good investment, merely because you had been getting greedy to try to make more and then you end up selling too much too soon.. and it keeps going up beyond levels that you had anticipated to be possible or likely.


Perhaps.  Depends on how you do it.  Some people choose to invest in index funds...or maybe they choose to live in a house and to treat that as an investment, such as buying a house that has 4 units (four-plex, so that they might live in 1 of the units and rent out the other 3, which may or may not be a lot of work, depending on how they set it up. 

Of course here, one of our favorite topics is bitcoin, so I would think that anyone should be starting out with bitcoin and then figuring out ways to supplement into other assets, but surely some people come to bitcoin as a new investment, and they had already been investing in other assets, so they come to bitcoin in a way that they are adding bitcoin into an already established portfolio, and surely those kinds of people have more options than a brand new investor who doesn't have very many investments and is trying to figure out where to start... which probably bitcoin would be a good place to start. and as they build more wealth, the way that they build will inform the extent to which they believe that it is good to diversify and if so into what and how much.

You sound retarded .. or maybe you are just ill-informed (and sucking on some mainstream/anti-bitcoin/anti-Bukele talking points)?

Bitcoin happens to be a longer term play.. so if Bukele and El Salvador are investing into bitcoin and going down the bitcoin road, it likely could take a bit of time to see payoff in monetary terms - even though surely Bukele and El Salvador are building their wealth in terms of the various ways that they are putting resources and teachings into bitcoin... and especially the way that they are doing it seems to retain its bitcoin focus - and not getting distracted into shitcoins.. even though surely there is a bit of a tech investment angle that Bukele/El Salvador seems to be attempting, which could have some ways in which it might be read (or misinterpreted) as inviting shitcoins into their current and so far BTC prioritizing approach.


You sound a bit mixed up panganib999.  Sure, there may have been fuck ups with the Chivo wallet, yet it was never mandatory or imposed upon the people of El Salvador, even though there was a $30 incentive for them to learn about it. and there seems to have had been some problems with how that $30 incentive was deployed, including that it was seemingly abused by people who were largely engaging in fraud to get the $30 rewards of other El Salvadoreans.

Sending merits is voluntary.  Not a duty.


Even though I understand your point, at least in regards to Theymos could assign someone else to perform merit source duties and remove merit source status (or reduce merit source monthly allotment) from merit source members who are not sending source merits.


Yes.  The bias is that merit sources can send merits to whoever they like, as long as they are not currying favors.. so if you believe that the evidence supports that some members are currying favors, then report that (those) members.. .. there is a pretty large latitude and discretion for merit source member, yet you seem to suggest that there is some kind of obligation for them to have some kind of an acceptable objective standard(s), which is not the case in the current way that theymos has assigned merit sources, at least to my knowledge of the situation is that they can give merits to whoever the fuck they want and under whatever standard so long as their is no quid pro quo going on... I think theymos used the expression that merit sources are not allowed to "sell" their merits and you can figure out what "don't sell" means, but it surely does not rise to the level of creating other kinds of fairness and/or objectivity obligations upon merit source members.

And it is screwing up your prediction, too.