Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Every day WoD’s
Still waiting for supply shock.
Life, HODL goes on.

Hoding is what I do for living. Hodling is my occupation.  I don't think I can do without Hodling.  If I don't hodl I will loose.
Hodling all the way.

hodling is just doing nothing. any idiot can do it .....well, apparently not..

Lol. It seems very easy for some people.
But very difficult some people too.

Personally, I don't really like the idea of just HODLing, in terms of its general applicability, even though I recognize and appreciate that there will be some situations in which lump sum buying and then just HODLing makes sense and also people can do whatever they believe works for their situation - and their lil selfies, even if it might not be the best of practices.. at least from the perspective of this here cat.

Let me try to flesh out what I am trying to say a wee bit MOAR better.

Most people are likely not in a position to just lump sum buy bitcoin at some price and then just sit on their investment for years and years and years, and many times, it will take quite a few years and likely several cycles for the investment into bitcoin to really compound upon itself in order to put the BTC into a kind of solid value.. but also perhaps trajectorying the BTC buyer/hodler into a kind of fuck you status (if s/he was not already at fuck you status when starting the investment).

Many people are likely going to need to invest in bitcoin several times and keep investing in order to get into a position that is likely comfortable and sufficiently aggressive, because even if we presume some already decent level of knowledge about BTC at the time of the initial investment, it also seems likely that the investor is going to learn more about bitcoin and learn more about himself/herself in order to justify adding to the BTC position - or perhaps going through some other kinds of BTC management that may well include additional BTC accumulation (rather than resting upon a one-time lump sum buy that might have taken place years earlier).

I understand that there are likely some exceptions to the case in which lump sum investing makes sense, including people who might be very old and going from accumulation to liquidation and kind of skipping the maintenance stage... and also when someone buys at some point in which the BTC price ended up going up - without ever coming back down to the initial buy price, then as long as the person bought enough BTC, there may be no need to buy more.. and the main question might just be choosing points in which to sell various parts (never really selling all of it.. absent some extreme circumstances such as somewhat known end-of-life situations).

sideways for three weeks now... do we rip up or down is the question

Flip a coin.  

Here's a short and sweet video clip (less than a minute) to help 'splainening it for uie-pooie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAXxkcVvzV4

 

[hafiztalha]

https://news.bitcoin.com/former-sec-official-warns-of-reversal-in-sec-v-ripple-ruling-on-xrp-says-the-decision-resides-on-shaky-ground/

The former head of internet enforcement at the U.S. Securities and SEC has expressed concerns about the SEC vs Ripple case ruling suggesting it is on shaky ground and likely to be reversed on appeal. He highlighted the discrepancy in SEC protection between institutional and retail investors deeming it backwards. He predicted that the SEC would appeal the decision potentially leading to a new unregulated crypto iteration if the appeal fails.

[xhomerx10]

^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality.  Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes.  (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well).  It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at  ~2100 UST to let you know.  Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

#nohomo

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Learn Bitcoin]

^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality.  Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes.  (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well).  It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at  ~2100 UST to let you know.  Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

#nohomo

Okay, there you go Homer. The simple extension I use is copyleaks!

[EmpoEX]

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

https://x.writefull.com/gpt-detector and https://sapling.ai/ai-content-detector says it's not AI-generated.

[JayJuanGee]

sideways for three weeks now... do we rip up or down is the question

We break out soon 🔜 very soon 🔜.

33k by the end of july seems likely.

I’m not so sure it’ll be that soon. Looking over the chart and order data it looks like we may see one more pullback before launching upward to the $40K mark.

Never can go wrong with down before up.

Who knows what will happen,

You do know.  Down before up.  Member?

but I’m not so bullish for the remainder of this month, but feel pretty bullish about Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year. Just a precursor to the real run in 2025 though.

Yeah.

Waiting for the "real run."  Yep.


But even if it does not run.. Let's say it just goes up 6% per year (or maybe 6% on top of whatever might be the cost of living).  It seems that dee cornz would still be a great investment... "We" should not need any crazy-ass UPpity in order to profit stupendously from our investment in dee cornz - especially the longer that we have been in, then the more likely that we are in profits, but even those folks who started out DCA investing in BTC in January 2021 are likely in profits as long as they kept buying BTC regularly, and the longer that any of us has been in (including DCA'ing into BTC) the better...

By the way, I understand that BTC does not really do gradual (and stable) rises, so we are likely going to be experiencing outrageous outbursts from time to time that may well go in either price direction, and even if we were to go up 6% per year (in real terms), it can feel quite traumatic to go through BIG ass price waves, even if the BTC price may well overall be gravitating in the UPpity direction - not guaranteed, but surely BTC seems quite likely to continue to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside.. not even sure if it is going UP off of the efforts of others.. or is it just going UP as an act of GOD?  #asking for my lil religious fiend

[edited out]

I was pretty bullish until recently. I thought that as soon as we break the 30800 level, we will go up to 32 at least, and maybe up to 35. But bitcoin seems to stand still and hardly moves. 31 has already been tested more than once, but no further movements followed. Although there wasn't much of a pullback down either, the market is in anticipation. Now I am inclined to agree with you, probably more significant growth will begin by the end of the year.

Remember that Bitcoin is not mature asset class, and we are having a battle that potentially (or should I say likely?) involves the greatest transfer of wealth in history. 

You cannot assess the price movements of dee cornz merely by the use of technical analysis or even momentum or even reason or even fractals.. and accordingly battles need to play out, including constantly newer and newer players coming into the space (and some of them with greater wealth than others), and even if some retail is getting scared out, and chased out, some retail (and earlier HODLers) are not leaving.. but that does not stop the BIG BOYS from wanting to teach HODLers a lesson.. which may or may not be as easy to accomplish as they might presume that they have been able to do in their traditional market play grounds... .

Some of them might know about bitcoin, and others are still learning, and one of the easier ways to learn is to get burnt.. which there were quite a few burns in 2022.. but then there were likely some of the traditional fucktwats who escaped from some of the 2022 burnings.

more details

I wonder if he is still HODLing.

That post was from a year ago, and if he kept buying the whole time, then he would have brought his average cost per BTC down quite a bit. 

If he front loaded at $69k (if any of that is true) and then ended up keeping on buying, he still may well NOT be in profits (depending on how much he had been able to buy in the last year or so), but he likely would be close to being able to get into profits, rather than a mere HODL strategy.. that would keep his average cost per BTC at $69k.. which makes it a bit more difficult to get back into profits and also into a place of greater comfort.

That's part of the reason that I am so triggered by those who lump sum buy at the top, and then just sit on their hands for an extended period of time while the BTC price is dipping.. it makes little sense, even though I know people employ those kinds of gambling tactics in which they blow their wadd (load) way too soon... and then they are not ready, willing and able to continue to buy and to really cause themselves to have more solid holdings but also stronger hands, and likely better psychological health.

[BOUNTY BMSR]

29.1% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in 5+ years.

That's absolutely insane. Think about it...

5 years ago today, Bitcoin was trading at $6,500.
It fell to $3,100 five months later, falling -51%.
Then it ripped back to $13,800 from Dec.’18 to June’19.
BTC fell another -50% in the 2nd half of 2019.
Then it jumped to $10.5k in Q1'20.
COVID happened & BTC fell -63% in one month.
It ripped higher post-COVID, hitting Q1'21 highs of $64k.
Then it fell more than -50% from April'21 - June'21.
It recouped those losses, gaining +139% through Nov.’21.
Over the next 12 months, it fell -77.5%.
Since the Q4 lows, BTC has gained +96% in ~8 months.

Despite all of this, 29.1% of Bitcoin hasn't been moved.

After periods of intense volatility and severe drawdowns, Bitcoin investors didn’t run for the exits when they saw light at the end of the tunnel.

They just held their Bitcoin.

They didn’t sell when they had a chance to recoup their losses.

They just held their Bitcoin.

They didn’t sell when they had a chance to secure massive gains.

They just held their Bitcoin

Massive credit to @jimmyvs24 for this amazing chart/data, which I referenced in my latest newsletter, "Bitcoiners Are Insane", linked in the comments below.

https://twitter.com/CalebFranzen/status/1680671644199661570?t=2suc3AdWCHrvgosNRA8l0Q&s=19

[hafiztalha]

Senator Elizabeth Warren requests SEC investigation into Elon Musk's Tesla over Twitter ties, alleging misappropriating assets and conflicts of interest.


https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1680954502352863234?t=_cojUhbZQzmlaZCaDlhKYw&s=19

[Torque]

OT:

In order for there to be an economic purge in society, it has to be persisted long enough by TPTB for a psychological change among the people. Shock, denial, then acceptance.

The message being sent, over time, becomes clear and eventually self-evident: "When the smoke clears, these jobs of the past are not coming back. Get used to it."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsZQL-_Y9CA

[Out of mind]

70% of all bitcoin have not moved in over 1 year
30% of bitcoin have not moved in over 5 years
a large part of these are lost bitcoins
the rest are strong hands that learned a good lesson from FTX, banks and their own government

the us gov has borrowed $5 billion of new debt every single day in 2023

while the next halving is in 9 months!
Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vroom]

Bitcoin can be stored literally as colors.

Read that again.

Developers found a way to convert bitcoin "private keys" or "seed phrases" into a sequence of colors linked to their hex codes. Imagine using a colorful painting on your wall as your secretly encoded bitcoin password.

source

Click for details: https://github.com/enteropositivo/bip39colors

good idea but remembering six-digit hex codes is not really easy compaired to seed phrases. is there a way to read the hex code from a painting? I know that there is a tool in photoshop.

[JayJuanGee]

^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality.  Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes.  (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well).  It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at  ~2100 UST to let you know.  Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG
I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.
#nohomo

the substance of that looks familiar.

It's like a read it somewhere, when I wrote it.

[Johnlomape]

70% of all bitcoin have not moved in over 1 year
30% of bitcoin have not moved in over 5 years
a large part of these are lost bitcoins
the rest are strong hands that learned a good lesson from FTX, banks and their own government

the us gov has borrowed $5 billion of new debt every single day in 2023

while the next halving is in 9 months!
Source

So many persons had been contemplating about the halving that is going to make the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket but only should they keep in mind that Holding is what is going to make  it worth waiting. It might also take more time for the halving to take place which could be more than the 9 months you are expecting.
I smile when I see my portfolio growing like a flower that is set for the sun rise.

[goldkingcoiner]

^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality.  Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes.  (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well).  It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at  ~2100 UST to let you know.  Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

#nohomo

Lol. I want to get roasted by AI too, do me next

Okay, there you go Homer. The simple extension I use is copyleaks!

Neat. My human brain would not have suspected such a post to be written by AI. How do these checkers work?

[Hueristic]

Bitcoin can be stored literally as colors.

Read that again.

Developers found a way to convert bitcoin "private keys" or "seed phrases" into a sequence of colors linked to their hex codes. Imagine using a colorful painting on your wall as your secretly encoded bitcoin password.

source

Click for details: https://github.com/enteropositivo/bip39colors

good idea but remembering six-digit hex codes is not really easy compaired to seed phrases. is there a way to read the hex code from a painting? I know that there is a tool in photoshop.

Imagine what happens why you go to get your coins and the paintings colors faded to a different color and your keys are gone.

^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality.  Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes.  (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well).  It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at  ~2100 UST to let you know.  Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

#nohomo

Are there any tools to check posting history for changes, I'd be interested to see how fast my decline has been according to AI.

[coolcoinz]

Okay, there you go Homer. The simple extension I use is copyleaks!

You shouldn't trust that site too much. Here's an example:

Some of them might know about bitcoin, and others are still learning, and one of the easier ways to learn is to get burnt.. which there were quite a few burns in 2022.. but then there were likely some of the traditional fucktwats who escaped from some of the 2022 burnings.

Either it's wrong or JJG is an AI in disguise

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Out of mind]

24 Hour #Bitcoin Therapy Recap‼️
• RSI signals BTC bull market has begun
• Binance now supports BTC Lightning
• Report says FedNow is safer than crypto
• Brazilian CBDC designed to steal funds
Source