Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[FinePoine0]

more details

[bitcoinPsycho]

https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21323570/

"A record 592,000 Bitcoin, or roughly $17.8 billion, was accumulated when the coin was trading at $30,200, recent Glassnode data indicates. At this accumulation rate, suggesting possible demand, more entities bought more coins at the second fastest pace in the network’s history. This record was only broken when 637,000 BTC were bought at an average price of $16,500"

[Gachapin]

https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21323570/

"A record 592,000 Bitcoin, or roughly $17.8 billion, was accumulated when the coin was trading at $30,200, recent Glassnode data indicates. At this accumulation rate, suggesting possible demand, more entities bought more coins at the second fastest pace in the network’s history. This record was only broken when 637,000 BTC were bought at an average price of $16,500"

if glasnost indicates that we are going up, my bet is on down  

I'm somewhat with OgNasty that we are going up in Q4 and Q1, probably after the gox event  (if that will ever come that is)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitcoinPsycho]

https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21323570/

"A record 592,000 Bitcoin, or roughly $17.8 billion, was accumulated when the coin was trading at $30,200, recent Glassnode data indicates. At this accumulation rate, suggesting possible demand, more entities bought more coins at the second fastest pace in the network’s history. This record was only broken when 637,000 BTC were bought at an average price of $16,500"

if glasnost indicates that we are going up, my bet is on down  

I'm somewhat with OgNasty that we are going up in Q4 and Q1, probably after the gox event  (if that will ever come that is)

I'm betting UP

OgNasty is almost always negative on Bitcoin

[vapourminer]

sideways for three weeks now... do we rip up or down is the question

im down with up

[Gachapin]

sideways for three weeks now... do we rip up or down is the question

im down with up

haha nice

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Tuco Benedicto Pacifico]

Getting sick from all those woke, anti-white, transgenders, political correctness bullshit these days.

Jezus.. Disney really wants to go bankrupt even after $900 million mega flops.

What's next; Mel Gibson playing Martin Luther King, Morgan Freeman as Nicola Tesla.

A lot of people think companies like Bud Light, Disney (Marvel, Lucasfilm, Indiana Jones), Netflix, Amazon, Target, etc. must have some sort of death wish.

They don't understand that all this essentially free ESG money these corporations are being given, comes with a bullet list set of requirements and mandates the projects must adhere to, but otherwise no strings attached.

The ESG banks are literally subsidizing corporations with free money that merely has to adhere to a social/political agenda.

That is all. That is why these corporations lined up for it and took it hand over fist.

Their execs don't care if the projects they spent this money on actually make a profit, because it was free. So in their eyes, they lost nothing. Plus they can write these off as massive tax losses. (I've even read that they can write off ESG projects that don't even get released to the public, i.e., that get shelved half way through production, like what Warner Brothers did with their Batgirl movie).

Do you ever wonder why their CEOs and other top execs are always seen pictured smiling and relaxed in the media, even in the face of all these massive multi-billion dollar flops, missteps, and bad publicity?

This is why.

But the joke is on the corporations themselves; they are literally destroying the image of their own brands overnight.

When all the free ESG money runs out, will they be able to recover and rebuild their brands? Will they be able to actually make real profits again?

Doubtful. The people will remember. Pepperidge Farm remembers.  

I generally agree with your statements, particularly with your conclusion (same goes for machasm and BitcoinBunny later on).

However, I am not so sure about the free money part.
Imo, it`s more like bowing down to ESG will secure access to capital flows (generally associated with an ROI-expectation).
Which are first and foremost controlled by the big fund managers like ... our new best friends ... from Blackrock (also Vanguard).
Who have been spearheading not only ESG, but also ... exciting ... new and additional catalogues like CEI (Corporate Equality Index) and DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion). Pretty sure, there will be more to come if things go as planned.

Thing is, these social/economic engineering tools can - and in the cases of Bud Light and Target already have done so - backfire bigly.
They can be leveraged by the plebs and actually really hurt those companies.
Latest Bud Light spots and Target pulling their ... special ... line of children`s clothes off the shelves have gone against one or more of the boxes they had to tick off in any of those guidelines.
And that came with a price.
Which they knew beforehand.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-fast-tracks-eviction-esg-violators-msci-linked-etfs-2023-03-09/

Yeah, they didn`t get annihilated in an instant.
But it did hurt their score(s).
Even these corps can "not care" only so much.
Given enough backlash, they will bow to the customer in the end.

[JayJuanGee]

Every day WoD’s
Still waiting for supply shock.
Life, HODL goes on.

Hoding is what I do for living. Hodling is my occupation.  I don't think I can do without Hodling.  If I don't hodl I will loose.
Hodling all the way.

hodling is just doing nothing. any idiot can do it .....well, apparently not..

Lol. It seems very easy for some people.
But very difficult some people too.

Personally, I don't really like the idea of just HODLing, in terms of its general applicability, even though I recognize and appreciate that there will be some situations in which lump sum buying and then just HODLing makes sense and also people can do whatever they believe works for their situation - and their lil selfies, even if it might not be the best of practices.. at least from the perspective of this here cat.

Let me try to flesh out what I am trying to say a wee bit MOAR better.

Most people are likely not in a position to just lump sum buy bitcoin at some price and then just sit on their investment for years and years and years, and many times, it will take quite a few years and likely several cycles for the investment into bitcoin to really compound upon itself in order to put the BTC into a kind of solid value.. but also perhaps trajectorying the BTC buyer/hodler into a kind of fuck you status (if s/he was not already at fuck you status when starting the investment).

Many people are likely going to need to invest in bitcoin several times and keep investing in order to get into a position that is likely comfortable and sufficiently aggressive, because even if we presume some already decent level of knowledge about BTC at the time of the initial investment, it also seems likely that the investor is going to learn more about bitcoin and learn more about himself/herself in order to justify adding to the BTC position - or perhaps going through some other kinds of BTC management that may well include additional BTC accumulation (rather than resting upon a one-time lump sum buy that might have taken place years earlier).

I understand that there are likely some exceptions to the case in which lump sum investing makes sense, including people who might be very old and going from accumulation to liquidation and kind of skipping the maintenance stage... and also when someone buys at some point in which the BTC price ended up going up - without ever coming back down to the initial buy price, then as long as the person bought enough BTC, there may be no need to buy more.. and the main question might just be choosing points in which to sell various parts (never really selling all of it.. absent some extreme circumstances such as somewhat known end-of-life situations).

sideways for three weeks now... do we rip up or down is the question

Flip a coin.  

Here's a short and sweet video clip (less than a minute) to help 'splainening it for uie-pooie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAXxkcVvzV4

 

[hafiztalha]

https://news.bitcoin.com/former-sec-official-warns-of-reversal-in-sec-v-ripple-ruling-on-xrp-says-the-decision-resides-on-shaky-ground/

The former head of internet enforcement at the U.S. Securities and SEC has expressed concerns about the SEC vs Ripple case ruling suggesting it is on shaky ground and likely to be reversed on appeal. He highlighted the discrepancy in SEC protection between institutional and retail investors deeming it backwards. He predicted that the SEC would appeal the decision potentially leading to a new unregulated crypto iteration if the appeal fails.

[xhomerx10]

^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality.  Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes.  (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well).  It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at  ~2100 UST to let you know.  Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

#nohomo

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[God Of Thunder]

^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality.  Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes.  (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well).  It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at  ~2100 UST to let you know.  Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

#nohomo

Okay, there you go Homer. The simple extension I use is copyleaks!

[EmpoEX]

I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.

https://x.writefull.com/gpt-detector and https://sapling.ai/ai-content-detector says it's not AI-generated.

[JayJuanGee]

sideways for three weeks now... do we rip up or down is the question

We break out soon 🔜 very soon 🔜.

33k by the end of july seems likely.

I’m not so sure it’ll be that soon. Looking over the chart and order data it looks like we may see one more pullback before launching upward to the $40K mark.

Never can go wrong with down before up.

Who knows what will happen,

You do know.  Down before up.  Member?

but I’m not so bullish for the remainder of this month, but feel pretty bullish about Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year. Just a precursor to the real run in 2025 though.

Yeah.

Waiting for the "real run."  Yep.


But even if it does not run.. Let's say it just goes up 6% per year (or maybe 6% on top of whatever might be the cost of living).  It seems that dee cornz would still be a great investment... "We" should not need any crazy-ass UPpity in order to profit stupendously from our investment in dee cornz - especially the longer that we have been in, then the more likely that we are in profits, but even those folks who started out DCA investing in BTC in January 2021 are likely in profits as long as they kept buying BTC regularly, and the longer that any of us has been in (including DCA'ing into BTC) the better...

By the way, I understand that BTC does not really do gradual (and stable) rises, so we are likely going to be experiencing outrageous outbursts from time to time that may well go in either price direction, and even if we were to go up 6% per year (in real terms), it can feel quite traumatic to go through BIG ass price waves, even if the BTC price may well overall be gravitating in the UPpity direction - not guaranteed, but surely BTC seems quite likely to continue to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside.. not even sure if it is going UP off of the efforts of others.. or is it just going UP as an act of GOD?  #asking for my lil religious fiend

[edited out]

I was pretty bullish until recently. I thought that as soon as we break the 30800 level, we will go up to 32 at least, and maybe up to 35. But bitcoin seems to stand still and hardly moves. 31 has already been tested more than once, but no further movements followed. Although there wasn't much of a pullback down either, the market is in anticipation. Now I am inclined to agree with you, probably more significant growth will begin by the end of the year.

Remember that Bitcoin is not mature asset class, and we are having a battle that potentially (or should I say likely?) involves the greatest transfer of wealth in history. 

You cannot assess the price movements of dee cornz merely by the use of technical analysis or even momentum or even reason or even fractals.. and accordingly battles need to play out, including constantly newer and newer players coming into the space (and some of them with greater wealth than others), and even if some retail is getting scared out, and chased out, some retail (and earlier HODLers) are not leaving.. but that does not stop the BIG BOYS from wanting to teach HODLers a lesson.. which may or may not be as easy to accomplish as they might presume that they have been able to do in their traditional market play grounds... .

Some of them might know about bitcoin, and others are still learning, and one of the easier ways to learn is to get burnt.. which there were quite a few burns in 2022.. but then there were likely some of the traditional fucktwats who escaped from some of the 2022 burnings.

more details

I wonder if he is still HODLing.

That post was from a year ago, and if he kept buying the whole time, then he would have brought his average cost per BTC down quite a bit. 

If he front loaded at $69k (if any of that is true) and then ended up keeping on buying, he still may well NOT be in profits (depending on how much he had been able to buy in the last year or so), but he likely would be close to being able to get into profits, rather than a mere HODL strategy.. that would keep his average cost per BTC at $69k.. which makes it a bit more difficult to get back into profits and also into a place of greater comfort.

That's part of the reason that I am so triggered by those who lump sum buy at the top, and then just sit on their hands for an extended period of time while the BTC price is dipping.. it makes little sense, even though I know people employ those kinds of gambling tactics in which they blow their wadd (load) way too soon... and then they are not ready, willing and able to continue to buy and to really cause themselves to have more solid holdings but also stronger hands, and likely better psychological health.

[BOUNTY BMSR]

29.1% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in 5+ years.

That's absolutely insane. Think about it...

5 years ago today, Bitcoin was trading at $6,500.
It fell to $3,100 five months later, falling -51%.
Then it ripped back to $13,800 from Dec.’18 to June’19.
BTC fell another -50% in the 2nd half of 2019.
Then it jumped to $10.5k in Q1'20.
COVID happened & BTC fell -63% in one month.
It ripped higher post-COVID, hitting Q1'21 highs of $64k.
Then it fell more than -50% from April'21 - June'21.
It recouped those losses, gaining +139% through Nov.’21.
Over the next 12 months, it fell -77.5%.
Since the Q4 lows, BTC has gained +96% in ~8 months.

Despite all of this, 29.1% of Bitcoin hasn't been moved.

After periods of intense volatility and severe drawdowns, Bitcoin investors didn’t run for the exits when they saw light at the end of the tunnel.

They just held their Bitcoin.

They didn’t sell when they had a chance to recoup their losses.

They just held their Bitcoin.

They didn’t sell when they had a chance to secure massive gains.

They just held their Bitcoin

Massive credit to @jimmyvs24 for this amazing chart/data, which I referenced in my latest newsletter, "Bitcoiners Are Insane", linked in the comments below.

https://twitter.com/CalebFranzen/status/1680671644199661570?t=2suc3AdWCHrvgosNRA8l0Q&s=19