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2841  Economy / Economics / Re: Usdt safe heaven on: December 16, 2021, 09:11:03 PM
Superfun post. At first I just was not sure if you were joking or actually serious about your mixed set of assertions, but after some consideration I am now certain that you are making fun of the whole thing. Yep, any establecoin is purely a joke: they have all the disadvantages of fiat, additional credibility issues around being backed up by anything at all and have a history of fraud and accusations. Anyway, perhaps useful for short times to avoid tax or artificially pump bitcoin price... all very legit activities.
2842  Economy / Economics / Re: Coinmarketcap hacked ? seems i have more money than Elon on: December 15, 2021, 11:18:13 PM
It is a recurrent issue with coinmarketcap and other and it also happens to certain individual coins particularly if they have low liquidity or are marginal coins with weak programming and poor blockexplorers. it is certainly not the first time and won't be the last, so CMC should not really be used as a single source of truth for these matters ... nor for any other to be honest.

Regarding you having more than Elon, all I can say is that statistics say that between him and me we have billions.
2843  Economy / Economics / Re: For Americans Shocked by Inflation, Argentines Have Some Advice on: December 15, 2021, 10:41:12 AM
Inflation linked bonds are a defensive asset, but it is not always available. I would look into combinations of commodities and stocks that have pricing power to go past the inflation.  Insofar as your comments on Argentina, you are absolutely right. I would add that Venezuelans can also help with the classes and include an specialty in urban survival skills.

Jokes apart, the average Argentinian has learnt more about economy, inflation, the banking system, the credit system, what money really is and what an irresponsible politician can do to their lives. Hyperinflation, "corralitos", debt beyond measure and governments that last months.
2844  Economy / Economics / Re: Only 50% of the college Class of 2020 had full-time jobs 6 months post grad on: December 15, 2021, 10:05:34 AM
It would also be interested to know how the people who did not attend college fared. There is a lot of questioning on the real value of college and university education as it is , AFAIK, a free market in the USA and therefore by mere economic theory it will tend to reach a point in which the investment in time, money , effort would tend to an equilibrium with the benefits of such education (nicer jobs, better pay, better lifetime value). Did people looking for job without any degree do any better?
2845  Other / Archival / Re: Are Banks afraid of Crypto adoption? on: December 14, 2021, 06:32:03 PM
I think central banks are mostly concerned with people being scammed rather than with the crypto being a competition or substitute system. It is very clear that bitcoin does not really work as a substitute of local currencies, but rather like gold or other assets, so there is no fear on that. however, everyone that has been around for a while understands that possible the greatest risk in crypto is falling into a scam and the governments cannot allow people to loose their saving to scams and then having to subsidize their retirements.
2846  Economy / Economics / Re: The tampering is making markets unstable on: December 13, 2021, 03:15:42 PM
...

What further aggravates the situation is the fact that the US is making it clear that it will not interfere in the possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while also practically giving the green light to Israel for military action against Iran.

...

I am afraid we are not reading or watching the same news. US has stated that an invasion of Ukraine would have dire economic consequences, which in diplomatic terms is not equivalent at all to a green light. The fact that they are not sending tanks, submarines and the like does not mean that they are willing to have Russia have a go for free.

Regarding sending troops, you have to choose in a range of declarations... no clarity on that either and changes by the day. The Biden admin is unlikely to survive an invasion of Ukraine politically IMHO.

But none of that is the largest issue affecting markets, again, IMHO.
2847  Economy / Economics / The tampering is making markets unstable on: December 13, 2021, 10:57:59 AM
As most of you know, markets go on their own and determine prices by offer and demand... until the FED or the CEB shows up with the money bazooka and then everything moves correlated to the amount of money they decide to print. The situation as of today is no different, as any mention of "tampering", that is, the FED starting to withdraw money from circulation is received with 3% loses in stocks and quite a bit more in bitcoin.

On these times, focus on the long term or you will just get lost in the noise.
2848  Economy / Economics / Re: Mortgage are most wrong financial decision you can make on: December 12, 2021, 09:59:29 PM
Realistically, if you have the money for a house, you might be better off taking out a mortgage at 2% interest and investing in stocks and making 4% though so it depends on where you are I guess (stocks were used as an example as I'd consider them more stable and you can diversify globally quite easy with them and 4% is often returned from utilities)...

[not financial advice]

not financial advice either.

The fact that you buy a house with x5 or more leverage is what makes it an interesting business. You are basically doing business with someone else's money. If inflation is around 2% and you are paying a 2 o 3% is quite difficult to end worse than you started even if things go south. The main risk is not being able to pay or get into a large negative equity, but that is not really common unless you buy at the peak of a bubble or have very bad luck on your choices.

On top of that, if you are buying a house to live in, you would always need to consider that anyway you would need to pay to live somewhere, so the alternative is not to spend zero.
2849  Economy / Economics / Re: Did you realize in real life how Bitcoin gave us financial freedom? on: December 12, 2021, 09:49:00 PM
More or less. I have used it a few times for transfers and the like, but I am mostly a hodler. Bitcoin has not changed my life greatly, although I am fully aware that it is the case for many others in the forum.

My attitude towards money, bitcoin and investment is thinking in the very long term, decades or even a century ahead. To put it plainly, I hope that my grandchildren are born financially free. Taking that approach means that you will not take as much advantage of your personal achievements during your life time and it is a philosophy that is completely opposite to all the messages you are getting out there from commercial advertising, financial institutions, news outlets and society in general - so it is not for everyone.
2850  Economy / Economics / Re: Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity on: December 12, 2021, 09:21:02 PM
As they say, past return do not guarantee future returns. I like to extend this say to forecasting models, "predictions in the past do not guarantee predictions in the future". I have to admit that anyway, due to the unpredictability of bitcoin demand, this model does reasonably well. If I had to use something or would really care about the price in the mid-term, I would be my choice as of now. The fact remains that bitcoin is expected, by most people, to grow at a slower pace than in the past, but I am betting on an exceptional long term growth to which this model seems to agree.

This model was fitted only on a subset of the then available data, and had a forecasting power on following data, with minimal parameters adjustments.
This means the price dynamic is quite well predicted by model, so, in a sense, predictions in the past actually predicted the future!".


It is probably as good as it gets, but again, it is very easy to adjust a model backtesting, that is, adjusting the parameters so that it works perfectly in "predicting the past". But the nature of the market in the long and short term is highly psychological and bitcoin is facing legal and geostrategic issues that was not facing before. 200 year before it happened, people would not have predicted the fall of the Roman Empire to put it in a way.
2851  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: [El Salvador] Prejuicios y mitos sobre Bitcoin on: December 10, 2021, 11:11:25 AM
Respecto al tema energetico, creo que las estadísticas son muy difíciles de estimar. Hace poco vimos en un post que en teoría prácticamente no se mina en China pero que seguramente se estará haciendo con VPNs y similar. Ya de partida una buena parte del minado no sabes ni donde está. Hay casos absurdos como Rusia que tiene una prohibición de minado y a la vez el 3% de los nodos,... en fin que imposible de calcular.

Para mi lo más importante es saber cual es el coste de las alternativas. El minado es el precio de la seguridad de red y la capacidad de transaccionar. Cual es el coste energético de los centros de datos de Visa, Mastercard, Bancos, Financieras? Cuanto se gasta en realidad, inclusive por ejemplo los trabajadores llendo a las oficinas todos los días o la energía de los centros de datos, los edificios y sus consumos, ....

El debate ni siquiera es si la energía usada en bitcoin es renovable, el debate hay que llevarlo a cuan renovables son las alternativas.
2852  Economy / Economics / Re: how realistic is this: create own big crypto trading platform with own USDA on: December 09, 2021, 10:43:49 PM
like binance is doing with tether - they are "printing" fake casino money to inflate price of BTC using USDT (80 billions currently) - if anybody decide to create crypto market exchange and create for example USDA token (just like USDT alternative with also "covered" 1:1 to USD dollar) and print every day few millions of USDA - and then buy BTC to inflate price to 1'000'000 USD/BTC.
Is there any evidence of cooperation between tether and Binance to manipulate USDT prices? I don't think there is a link, it can be understood with the BUSD.

There are facts you should know:

USDT is backed by promises: There is no 1 USDT == 1 USD in bank, and therefore all that preserves its value is to continue to make promises that there is a real dollar for each USDT, and therefore you should avoid it if you want a stablecoin outside the platform.

USDT is used within the exchanges and this is only a small percentage (less than 10%) of the real Bitcoins.

I think these numbers do add to the argument in favour of considering that bitcoin price is being artificially inflated by the issuance of "tethers" in all their varieties. Even if only 10% of the bitcoins are exchange, price manipulation is even simpler and the depth of the market is low and it can be easily altered. If the USDT is not effectively backed up 1:1 then is leveraged and thus adds strength to the ability to artificially manipulate the market price and even the marketcap.

For me, all this sound sketchy and very far from the original intent of creating a coin that offers certainty and trustless exchanges.
2853  Economy / Economics / Re: Ubisoft Becomes First Major Gaming Company to Launch In-Game NFTs on: December 09, 2021, 10:38:37 PM
Glad to know that this company is taking it seriously. The most clear case of legit and economic use of NFTs is to prove digital assets ownership and to trustlessly transact these on a chain. The in-game items clearly fit on this description and Ubisoft is taking a great step in ensuring that their uses receive and added value that other will have to follow soon to keep competing. In my view, it has already taken more than enough time to get to this, as the tech was ready years ago but probably the craziness of 2018 did not help much instil confidence in crypto.
2854  Economy / Economics / Re: China’s Internet Billionaires Suffer $73 Billion Wipeout on: December 09, 2021, 10:35:11 PM
Yep, that is how the CCP acts and governs. First they feed the cow and put flowers in the horns and then kills it. It is not only the fortunes of the internet millionaires that have been wiped out, it is a much wider movement to de-couple China from western economic investment. China could even ban the societies that allow the circumvention of the rules for foreign investment in mainland China companies and many are listing in Hong Kong as the risk is also coming from the US in the form of delisting the companies from the NASDAQ.

The decoupling that China intends is asymmetric, wants to make the west invest but under their own arbitrary rules.
2855  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Economic Advantage on: December 09, 2021, 10:30:17 PM
Bitcoin is widely adopted by countries with weak economics..
Name a few!
Bitcoin itself is used by El Salvador as we know, used by Bahamas uses it in altcoins

So we have Salvador and that's it, Bahamas is not using Bitcoin but a centralized CDBC and neither is any other country!

We also have official branches that invest as well even if not government, like pension funds, mayors, states and so forth in USA that are in billions (Miami mayor, Ohio state, firefighters pension fund)

You're mistaken what the mayor of Miami does in his personal life with what the city hall of Miami which represents the administration does, as for Ohio they've canceled bitcoins payments two years ago and it was just for paying taxes purposes.

Again, the question was:
Which countries with weak economics have adopted bitcoin?

All in all it is a trusted and well respected method of investment for many people and many corporations and many government branches all around the world.

Name a few government branches that have invested in Bitcoin!

I would say that, at government level, it is just "El Salvador". As I have said in previous posts, using an asset that is limited, cannot be printed and is, as of now, deflationary is not valid for a whole country. It does not allow to follow a monetary policy to attenuate crisis and deflation has an very detrimental effect on any economy.

No, bitcoin is not intended to be used by any centralised and politically controlled institution and my take is that this is by design. It is money peer-to-peer, for the people and the individuals.. You can argue that some may want to have some nominal holdings of bitcoin for transactional purposes... the CIA has been mentioned but sources, well, you know, if "I tell you about the sources I would have to kill you after."

2856  Economy / Economics / Re: Legalization and Standardization of Organ Donation on: December 09, 2021, 10:24:05 PM
I think it's important to first learn how it's done these days to analyze the proposal. So I decided to read a bit about my country and some others, and here's what I learned: in Spain, there's a presumption of consent to become a donor after death, unless a person explicitly said they were against it. From what I read about the US, it's the opposite, but 54% of citizens sign agreements to become donors. Given that 95% support the idea in the US, I think what this country needs is simply the presumption of consent because it indeed makes sense where the vast majority supports it.
So it's already happening, and there are no financial incentives involved, no 'money upfront' or anything.
In my country, you can register as a potential donor in an event of your death, and there's no financial incentive to do this.
I'm not sure any country would provide a financial incentive for people to register, especially in the US, where 54% already registered.

I did not know that you were presumed a donor in Spain unless stated otherwise, but I guess it makes sense. Particularly in a country that is quite strong in organ transplants in general already for a few decades. I cannot help but to feel that this is kind of a "harvesting" by the public health system though.

In my view, and based on the studies, donating for money is an ultimate way of exploitation of the poor. Anyone with a little imagination can figure out how ugly this may get... e.g. selling children for their organs, giving organs away to avoid deprivation and hunger or extreme poverty... My take is that this is already happening in the black market, yet making it official is simply intolerable.
2857  Economy / Economics / Re: No where is actually safe on: December 09, 2021, 10:19:36 PM
Many are living their businesses to turn to crypto with the mind of joining the trend and with the way crypto investment is been hyped lately many just feel its actually one of those easiest way to make money online and the funny part is most of them dive into this opportunity without any formal knowledge about how the system works.

I will say crypto isn't a safe Haven and there is no 100% guarantee in crypto investment although one can attest to the fact crypto isn't ponzi but yet it's not just an easy adventure its an ever learning business option that could be passively yielding and at the same time bankrupt yielding depending on ones approach.

If crypto was that easy to go by we would have had more than half of the world's population living very comfortably not giving much concern to their economic data any longer. But the truth remains crypto investment is more difficult compared to manual businesses

I think you have it the wrong way around. If a business is sustainable without any cryptocurrency involved then offering a new payment method is simply adding customers rather than overhauling the very foundations of their business. People who run businesses are normally entrepreneurial and will test out many different ways to make money, so they tend to be very experimental leading to more money. ...

That is certain for most business. Anyone selling goods of certain value or with tickets above a certain value should seriously consider implementing a crypto-payments solution to allow customers to pay with crypto. This may now be simply a smart option, but by the looks of the markets and the general direction of travel of adoption and recognition among the young, it may simply become something that commerce may not be able to live without or, in another way, may have to live with it or be loosing a significant percent of sales.
2858  Economy / Economics / The gold confiscation of 1933 on: December 09, 2021, 10:15:03 PM
This is an episode of the US history that is known yet perhaps not widely enough. The executive order 6102 signed by the US president Roosevelt, basically confiscated all the privately held gold in the US giving a clearly insufficient compensation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102


Quote
Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $413 in 2020)[5] per troy ounce. Under the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, as amended by the recently passed Emergency Banking Act of March 9, 1933, a violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 (equivalent to $200,000 in 2020),[5] up to ten years in prison, or both.

This has to be more widely know particularly for younger people who have lived in an era in which banks seemed solid, money seemed to be of some value and most governments somehow seem respectful of private property. There is no haven, no absolute safety and you should not take anything for granted. Bitcoin may help you protect from these cases, yet, again, nothing is watertight.
2859  Economy / Economics / Re: The CIA Is Deep Into Cryptocurrency, Director Reveals on: December 09, 2021, 10:04:54 PM
It makes sense in many ways. Firstly, CIA has to pay an immensely large number of agents across the world and those payments carry certain risks. Firstly, if done in person (and many times that is the only option) they can be detected and intercepted. Secondly, individuals that get the money can look suspicious unless they somehow hide it "under the mattress". Using blockchain for payments solves quite nicely the problems.

And on another matter, they certainly must have projects on blockchain investigation, e.g. reverse-engineering the chipmixers?
2860  Economy / Gambling discussion / Taxes and regulations kill the odds on: December 09, 2021, 09:54:40 PM
Taxes make a huge impact on betting earnings in certain countries while other are relatively free of that burden. Many central European countries such as Germany, France, Luxembourg, Denmark, etc... charge directly to the casinos and other charge to the earnings. For example Denmark will get nearly 70% of the Casino earnings.

https://www.taxback.com/blog/the-ultimate-guide-to-gambling-tax-rates-around-the-world

As you can read, Germany is the most astringent jurisdiction, with 90% of casino earning being paid as tax! The message cannot be more clear: if you want money, go work! You could argue that Italy - tax free -  is also sending a message: go gamble, there is not much more to do  Grin On-line is also different per country and some are tax-free if it is online and other make no difference.

I researched this because I hear that a professional poker player from Spain was about to move to Andorra, which is something that may people do when they earn big.
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