So, which sub wave is this?
The sub-wave of 9th august clearly looked like a descending one, while on the 10th it was undefined. My guess is that we still have a slight upward trend due to the BTC withdrawals from Fort Gox, and this interferes with the waves, making the weaker ones difficult to recognize. We'll know for sure in 2 days. PS. In 2 days we should know for sure if we are now in wave B of the corrective trend, and moving into wave C.
|
|
|
Situation looks to me similar to the one on July 1st, just before the big drops from 95 to 67. If it repeats, we might see the price dropping to the 80s. But on the short term, someone is trying to pump up the price, maybe hoping to trigger a mini-rally. We'll see in a couple of days which way we go. Of course, if Fort Gox sorts out the $ withdrawals (unlikely though), the price could drop to the 50s.
|
|
|
why would the spikes grow slower? growth should be exponential, no? which would mean the bubble will get closer and closer together, pretty soon a bubble pop will be immediately followed by another bubble! They will grow slower because of limited resources, in our case speculators' money. IMO there won't be enough money to get above 4,000 $ in 2017.
|
|
|
People should stop dreaming about 10,000 $ / BTC anytime soon. 1,000 $ is possible in 2014 during a bubble spike, but after that the spikes will grow slower, something like 2,000 in 2015, 3,000 in 2016, and 4,000 in 2017.
And if you buy a car for 1,000 $, that's probably going to be a death trap, so don't.
|
|
|
I also sold before the dump and bought at an average of 102.4 (101.2 would have been nice, but seemed risky), and now the bid sum / ask sum points towards 106, with a possible overshoot to 107, that would be higher than the start of the dump. I'll just have to watch how this unfolds and draw conclusions later.
|
|
|
Why are we having a rally just after this dump? Doesn't make sense to me, it may take the price above 106... Weird...
A close look at the chart history shows that there is nothing weird about it. It seems to happen with regularity. If this rally in progress takes the price above 106, I'll be confused, because it won't match the Elliot sub-wave theory.
|
|
|
Why are we having a rally just after this dump? Doesn't make sense to me, it may take the price above 106... Weird...
|
|
|
Wow you've just blown my mind. Why have whales used gox to buy in the last few weeks at all? Makes no sense.
IMO only to rise the price above 98, after which the market took it to 110. And now it's harvest time.
|
|
|
the question is: which whale should buy at mtgox now ? if he wants to buy 5k BTC, buying on bitstamp would be much cheaper. So i think mtgox can only fall now.
The trend will be broken, when the first whale buys on bitstamp and equals the price!
Good point, but there's also a major unknown here: fiat withdrawals from MtGox, are they being sped up or not? During the last two days, the bid sum dropped by about 2 million $, while the ask sum has been slowly rising. If the bid sum continues it's downwards trend, the price will keep dropping.
|
|
|
Wednesday, August 22, 2013 $124
You do not believe we will touch 99? Good question, but I think I have a better one: are you the whale who dumped today 6k BTC and may dump some 13k -14k soon? That's the only way to persuade me that BTC will rise to ~124 $ during the next two weeks.
|
|
|
Yeah, have to try that next. I go to near library to test this. Luckily the trend is down so I'm not going to buy now =)
You should be grateful to MtGox staff for their incompetence, they helped you avoid a loss.
|
|
|
We all like targets and time frames here—right?
So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013 $124
—Assume your own risk, blah blah...
Considering the latest developments, would you mind updating your peak prediction?
|
|
|
well there was a guy a two months ago who put a 10k order that took the price from 95 to 110.
Hmm, I think it's more complicated. IMO the whale who dumped today stopped buying at 98, and 98 might be his bottom for now. But if he started buying at 78, then you do the math...
|
|
|
I missed an opportunity: should have let the whale hit me at 101.2, but who knew where it would stop? And who knew there would be someone willing to buy 700+ BTC at 104 $ after that? Anyway, I believe that once the small rebound loses steam and the downtrend continues, the whale will proceed with another dump, because he doesn't want someone else to harvest 'his' buy orders.
So did you buy at 101.2 now? NO, buying at 101.2 now would have been too risky IMO, we are going down, as far as I can tell. No idiot will put now another large buy order at 104.
|
|
|
I missed an opportunity: should have let the whale hit me at 101.2, but who knew where it would stop? And who knew there would be someone willing to buy 700+ BTC at 104 $ after that? Anyway, I believe that once the small rebound loses steam and the downtrend continues, the whale will proceed with another dump, because he doesn't want someone else to harvest 'his' buy orders.
You probably scream everytime the price switches between 102.X and 103.5 spread? Funny, but between 101.2 and 104 there was profit to be made. Between 102.x and 103.5 there was almost no profit and high risks.
|
|
|
I missed an opportunity: should have let the whale hit me at 101.2, but who knew where it would stop? And who knew there would be someone willing to buy 700+ BTC at 104 $ after that? Anyway, I believe that once the small rebound loses steam and the downtrend continues, the whale will proceed with another dump, because he doesn't want someone else to harvest 'his' buy orders.
|
|
|
If I were the dumper (I'm not!) then the best strategy is to break the 100 $ psychological barrier and let the market do the rest. That assuming the dumper wants to buy back later much cheaper.
Yup, I never understand why they don't do just that. Or maybe there is some strategy of false hopes for a better effect -> dump -> let it go back up a bit -> crush newly formed support and break 100 False hopes, yes, but just to harvest more $ from those who believe the dump is over. I am apprehensive right now, I have a feeling that it's not over yet, but we'll see.
|
|
|
If we don't break 108 today, IMO there is a high chance of a large whale dump. Something like the missing 20k BTC, that dissapeared from the order book after breaking the 98.
Let em dump. Told you so...
|
|
|
If I were the dumper (I'm not!) then the best strategy is to break the 100 $ psychological barrier and let the market do the rest. That assuming the dumper wants to buy back later much cheaper.
|
|
|
Market didn't get the memo yet, so there is inertia in following the downtrend. Give it time, people will start to panic more and more.
|
|
|
|