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This time Bistamp leads the dumps and China follows, interesting.
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Um, no. If the big guys (aka whales) would sell a lot we would see much better BTC liquidity and much lower prices. Most whales can afford to wait for the second half of 2016, when they'll dump big. ... yeah dump right before the next block halving ... sounds just like a nasty whale plan huh? Not before, the next block halving is going to happen during the second half of 2016 and if the stage of the market at that time will be a slow bull market (which is possible) it will only take another 2 - 3 months to reach mania stage, possibly up to 10k$, before the end of 2016. But of course whales won't want suckers to believe that they'll be bagholders at 10k$, they'll want suckers to believe the price will soon reach 100k$. |
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I don't know anyone who owns a single satoshi anymore. All 5 of my friends have sold and won't be back when they saw they were down $60-120/coin, somewhere around $50k in investors. The 2 guys who used to talk to me about btc think I am trying to scam them. My neighbor used btc to get a discount on a new laptop; he bought them literally at the last possible second so that they price would not drop during the time that they were in his address.
There are 3 main classes of btc owners, IMO:
- the majority with less than 5 coins
- the middle with 5-300 coins
- the bigger guys
These drops are not about btc value. They are not about price discovery. It has nothing to do with TA. It is just the big guys taking money from the smaller guys. I have spent 7 months staring at the charts and watching buy/sells scroll buy. Every drop is started by 200, 250, 300, 350 coins market sells, followed by more large sells, then the rest with 1-10 coins trying frantically not to lose money (which of course the always do). The big guys have their buy orders a few percent off the top, buy back in. Rinse and repeat day after day, as the price drops day after day, so the big guys can make their easy profits. And then defend the 7k dump on Bitfinex as natural market movement. And defend the big dump on BTC-e a few days later as a natural market movement. And complain that people refuse to buy the price up for your next dump.
We are not in a bear market. We are in a market where the big guys make more money on dumps than price increases. And dumps are SO much easier.
The smug big guys in this thread like to say we are in accumulation phase. No, we aren't. We are in the "take the newbies' money" stage. They are also the guys who encourage trading, instead of holding. See, they don't make money from you when you only hold your coins, they need you on an exchange. Goldman, etc., are replaced by anyone who holds 1 or 2k coins and can initiate dumps or walls.
Some of the big guys here are talking about $300 coins. Good luck with that, I hope you achieve it. Everyone except you will have sold and left btc. Everyone else will have lost half their money and left the technology for good. You will likely get $50, $25, $10, $1 coins, too. A Pyrrhic victory.
This short term thinking drives the price down, hinders new adoption, and drives out anyone who has adopted recently. Remember that when you see the charts that say btc adoption has stagnated: why would the average person hold coins that have dropped over 20% in the last 2 months and 60% in 9 months, for exactly no reason? Why would a newbie even CONSIDER buying btc when he is guaranteed to lose money?
I am thinking about dropping out of trading myself. I will keep a percentage of my coins in a cold wallet, sell the rest. This crap happening in the market is unbearable. I would rather deal with wallet street than bitcoin markets.
And no, I haven't lost coins trading. That is only because my trades rarely last over an hour.
Um, no. If the big guys (aka whales) would sell a lot we would see much better BTC liquidity and much lower prices. Most whales can afford to wait for the second half of 2016, when they'll dump big. |
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75 years ago, World War II started. It took Germany about the same time to reach Warsaw that the Russian army needs to reach Kiev.
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I think Putler (Putin, that behaves like Hitler), must be STOPPED at all costs !
Putler is to blame !
Aggressor in the 21st century has no place in the world !
I have started a donations campaign, and will donate myself also to Ukrainian soldiers !
Putler, you said? Certainly gave me a good laugh.  Well, Putler said he could occupy Kiev in 2 weeks and I believe he is right (maybe 3-4 weeks because of logistics issues). So far this is not a full scale invasion, but an incursion meant to weaken the Ukraine troops and strengthen the rebels. The best strategy for the West would be to assist Ukraine with weapons that can be used with little training, and help incur large losses on Russian troops. At some point, the price would be too high for Putin to continue the aggression. But such a strategy won't be supported by the commie muslim Obummer and stasikanzlerin Merkel. So in the end I believe Putin will get what he wants, a new state of Novorossiya (the East and South of Ukraine), that will join the Russian Federation and strengthen his case for the rebirth of the Soviet Union. |
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...
The current prices are indicating that only the true believers are going to stay into the game.
...
This is very bearish, because bitcoin price needs new bagholders, with plenty of fiat and willing to buy high. True believers have millions of bitcoins, and a fair amount of fiat, but way to little fiat to pump the price into another mania. |
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In the next 60 days I expect the market to find the real bottom, that's all. And then a nice 80% rebound, followed by a couple of small corrections and then a slow uptrend.
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I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya  ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices. Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me.  Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot. It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least. No he didn't say that. Although a very bearish scenario is possible in which the last 1 / 27 of wave C is a death spiral, and drops to about 100$, it is very unlikely IMO. Currently my guesstimate for the despondency stage (real bottom) is about 280$ and the second half of October. As for the July 2013 bottom, that capitulation was mild because the trading happened in a narrow range: after a harsh wave A, the trapped / fake fiat on MtGox (still leading) provided support and even made the market look bullish for a while (local bottoms: 50$, 80$, 90$ then drop to 65$). |
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At Bitstamp:
on 2013-12-06 it dropped from 1020 to 814 (20%),
on 2014-03-27 it dropped from 581 to 475 (19%).
By my count, we are in a similar position now, but the movements take significantly longer, so I doubt we'll see a daily 20% drop soon. Both of those drops were reactions to Chinese government "bans". Since the end of April, there haven't been any similar bad news relevant to the Chinese markets. That may be why the drops have been more gradual: they have been vague "epidemics of pessimism" rather than bomb blasts. EDIT: Actually I don't know whether the 2013-12-06 drop was due to the "december decree". The decree was published a week later, is that right? If so, then the 2013-12-06 may have been triggered by inside info, or by other causes. Bad news can only trigger drops that are already possible at a certain market stage, maybe amplify them a bit ( like 10% - 15% ). Bad news also made the market move faster. If the bad news from China would have continued, we would have hit the bottom and by now we would be going up. The lack of new bad news (since April) from China puzzles me. But maybe the PBoC wants the bubble to deflate gracefully, to avoid social unrest. |
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20% in one day? Who on earth would bet on something like this happening?
At Bitstamp: on 2013-12-06 it dropped from 1020 to 814 (20%), on 2014-03-27 it dropped from 581 to 475 (19%). These were only open-to-close changes. There were several days when it dropped more than 20% in less than 24h, but in most of those days the price recovered partially by the end of the day. By my count, we are in a similar position now, but the movements take significantly longer, so I doubt we'll see a daily 20% drop soon. |
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Not today, it's too soon. Maybe tomorrow.
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I wonder if support at 440$ will hold for now, or the dumpers will cut through it like a hot knife through butter.  My guesstimated bottom for this round of drops is about 360$, but it will take some time to get there. |
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The majority of Russians are not insane, they are simply stupid and easily brainwashed.
Being so isn't specific to Russians, the majority of all nations are stupid, but some are really dumb,
and those that lived for a long time under dicktatorships (pun intended) are hopeless.
The few individuals that are smart enough to see beyond the official propaganda won't matter, because
they'll be afraid to speak their minds, and for good reason. The FSB agents like those posting in these
forums the hard-to-believe Russian propaganda would 'take care' of them.
The question should be 'Is Putin insane?' and of course he's not, but he has an agenda, to rebuild the
Soviet empire, and he won't care about thousands of deaths in this process. As long as the death toll
in the ranks of the Russian army stays reasonably low, he will continue the aggression into Ukraine.
Don't get me wrong, I don't have much sympathy for Ukraine, they are as bad (maybe worse?) as Russians when it
comes to minority rights, but in this case they are the victim, and Russia (Putin and his henchmen) is the villain.
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Patience, just a few more days. Bulls have to exhaust ammo first.
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Adam trolling his own thread, disappointing...
oh come on... did no one have a lol from that analogy? Sorry Adam, I don't even understand it: hold on to your butts??? Instead of a lol, it was wtf for me. And while Bitlicense is pointless for the bottom price, for the next mania phase it might be important. |
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Short term, bulls may knock at the major resistance level of 560$ until they'll run out of ammo.
Asks will pile up again and once the 442$ resistance will break, we may see a red dildo on the daily chart.
Eventually the market will find the real bottom and a strong rebound will follow, then the new bull market will move slowly up.
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