Photography is awesome for when you get older or not suited to serious exercise. I know people in their mid 80s that take amazing landscape photos.
Also local wildlife photography can help advance science if you get the right niche for rare birds / critters in your area
My dad was heavily into photography. Landscape, supercars and these soft filtered 70's portraits. I grew into it, automatically. Got my first Canon AE-1 from him at the age of 12, i also have two inherited lenses here, which i use occasionally. A Tamron push-pull zoom and a fixed focal length 24mm f2 lens. Both can't keep up with modern sensor resolutions too well, though. Stepping into digital photography at 2 megapixels from 35mm film was awesome. At the time you can shoot landscapes like this a lot:  reminds me of a sunset on Haleakala, Maui (US, Hawaii) |
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Made the most well timed and largest trade I've ever done yesterday and early this morning. Literally had a "gut feeling" so, I consulted magic 8 ball. I ended up selling a large chunk of BTC I held on an exchange around $32k. Also sold all of (shitcoin that shall not be mentioned) that I've had for about 4 years now while it was at $1,100. Woke up from a deep sleep, checked my phone, saw BTC below $29k, bought with all the fiat sitting on the exchange, went to bed... Increased my BTC holdings by 20% and finally cleaned my hands of shitcoins. That's it boys... I'm retiring trading... can't beat that one if I tried...  Hope everyone else made the best out of that fire sale. that's a better wake up call than someone else, lol. |
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I've been looking at corn related ETFs / ETNs, ... There are a few non-US ones, some in Canada, some in the UK, but almost anyone can get them subject to exchange rate between FX. No need to wait for Van Eck or others.
It would seem counter intuitive to do this when all of us here have the actual real corn, but it has it's purposes.
yes, I have GBTC, CXBTF and QBTC-U.TO, all in IRA (regular and Roth US accounts). CXBTF is really difficult to trade now as, despite being given an OTC symbol, it is not trading in US due to SEC objection, you have to talk to foreign desk (and pay $50/trade), same for QBTC. just like that: https://youtu.be/wzJv2dCJ2xk?t=84watch (if you want) until 1:34 |
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You could keep your job too and just not accept any further promotions or responsibilities, or maybe work even less hours. I think it's a good idea to keep your employment as it makes you look "normal" together with the rest of the people. You work, get paid, pay taxes. Your corns can be kept separate (whether you pay taxes on those or not is really up to you and how comfortable you are with all of it, maybe take time to study this area too.)
While working, you can probably add to your retirement fund, whatever it is called, 401k for those in the US, "super funds" for those down under, plus whatever social security / social insurance you get from the government, if you intend on claiming those.
^ This (highlighted is my plan as well). EDIT: if corn exceeds 90% of your assets, maybe consider selling some, but when selling don't keep all in fiat, buy some less correlated assets: real estate (direct, no REITs), wine, collectables, timber, maybe some cheap emerging markets ETF. I was looking at some stonks-you can create quite diversified ETF portfolio (10-15 ETFs in different sectors) with >5% average annual yield. I'd probably get the REITs, or REIT ETFs. Also some high yield ETFs, maybe some of those so called dividend aristocrat ones. I'd also lean towards either S&P or even a total stock market ETF. My preference is Vanguard. yes, I looked at highlighted, but not only at those. A contrarian in me wants to be a contrarian, lol. |
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You could keep your job too and just not accept any further promotions or responsibilities, or maybe work even less hours. I think it's a good idea to keep your employment as it makes you look "normal" together with the rest of the people. You work, get paid, pay taxes. Your corns can be kept separate (whether you pay taxes on those or not is really up to you and how comfortable you are with all of it, maybe take time to study this area too.)
While working, you can probably add to your retirement fund, whatever it is called, 401k for those in the US, "super funds" for those down under, plus whatever social security / social insurance you get from the government, if you intend on claiming those.
^ This (highlighted is my plan as well). EDIT: if corn exceeds 90% of your assets, maybe consider selling some, but when selling don't keep all in fiat, buy some less correlated assets: real estate (direct, no REITs), wine, collectables, timber, maybe some cheap emerging markets ETF. I was looking at some stonks-you can create quite diversified ETF portfolio (10-15 ETFs in different sectors) with >5% average annual yield. |
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If GBTC premium evaporates, that would indicate that ETF is imminent.
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WARNING! My market analysis shows that we are within 0-15 days of the downturn. Before that we can go to anywhere between 34.5K and 128K (basically 1-4X)..1x obviously means that we turn tomorrow or even later in the night, but 4x and 128K is almost equally probable, IMHO. An arithmetic average between these two numbers is about 80K, which is slightly above my prior range of 50-70K medium top, but I thought that this local top would be only in March, but it is close to impossible now as the digital assets market where btc is not less than 69% weighting and much more if you remove stablecoins is completely feverish for an unknown reason. It is not just bitcoin anymore. Everything is crazy, very similarly to Jan 2018. To ignore the whole market behavior is not possible as it was wrong to ignore the Nasdaq behavior in 2000 when your favorite large cap was still outperforming. Market is telling us that this will not continue for much longer, sorry that it was kind of short-lasting even if we will squeeze it up to 50-100K in the interim. Bottom by the spring at 1/2 or even 1/3 if we peak at 100-120K, maybe a second run in the fall. JJ, alt season is upon us! it is insane, MANY shitcoins in the top 50-100 are showing 30-90% daily gains. I have no idea why. |
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Mindrust edition.  Actually, it is not the fact that he sold, it is that he sold everything (apparently re-bought 1 btc later, which should have already brought it would probably bring him back to the same 40K). Sometimes, when you cannot handle it, sell some, like 0.1% or something to release some steam. BTW, in a grand picture, any sell might eventually look stupid. If btc is 1mil, 33k would look like a pimple on the chart. |
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I received bitcoin worth of 0.19 usd on my ledger wallet yesterday. Nobody knows my ledger besides bitstamp. Anybody knows where this could come from?
Dust spam. It will cost you more than 0.19 to move that UTXO and you may expose your other addresses by doing so. Not sure if Ledger allows to ignore inputs but if it does you should do that. I've gotten more dust attacks than I care to admit. Always be sure to use Coin Control when possible, for outgoing transactions, avoiding those dust inputs. Wonder when the day will come when it's reasonable to consolidate all the dust transactions into one address. Never heared of that. All my bitcoins are on one adress on the ledger. And it has been sent to that adress. that address is not ON the ledger, it is on the blockchain, hence anybody can see it. the fact that you never got dust before means nothing. |
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This is the funniest shit I have seen this week. This is the performance of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and the analyst rating....  maybe he/she meant: SELL, then use the proceeds to buy bitcoin, keep the premium difference (it actually dropped to about 17% on Dec 31, which is kind of low) Naaah, that would be expecting too much. |
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Just imagine how Loaded feels.
The Winklevoss twins are probably enjoying the day too. ~400 mil for them, $3-3.3 bil to Satoshi (or, rather, to his coins) |
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Congrats to my fellow WOers on the 30K breach.
Now can someone explain to me wtf is going on??
In TA terms we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves. Not dangerously so - currently we are sitting on the target price for late March 2021. So we could easily and comfortably have a 3 month correction at any time. The real question is whether something underlying has changed. We saw the early breakout in the first half of 2019 when we went parabolic out of cycle and peaked out at $13,880 in June 2019. Ultimately that was not sustainable (and culminated in the crash of March 2020) but it showed a baby bull that was surprisingly powerful. Now at the end of 2020 and starting into 2021 we see an adolescent bull that is extremely strong. The key difference between 2017 and 2021 is the start of inflow of institutional money. Like it or not, this is not a retail driven rally. Grayscale has bought more coins than miners can produce over the past 3 months. *This* is the reason for the rally. The flipside is the price is much more vulnerable to regulatory interference. If Grayscale has regulatory problems, the price will be adversely affected. Putting regulatory issues aside, we can ask ourselves - where to from here? We are all passengers on the rocket and I am watching for signs we are breaking upwards away from current models. For example a breakout that would invalidate moon math. At this stage it is far too early to say that something has changed, and right now we are still just a bit frothy which could just end up being a 2019 style overshoot. But there is a clear risk that this could end in a melt up. This is potentially a dangerous time. People on this forum could see, and lose, life changing fortunes. Have a plan motherfuckers and stick to it. If you don’t have a plan now, make one now and write it down and then execute it. Your plan needs to include the possibility that Bitcoin goes beyond levels you have dreamed about - don’t sell yourself short. btc plan or covid plan? or btc plan if you get the other. I am very happy for btc price, but the 'other thing' is spoiling it. Friends are getting sick. Honestly, i cannot even enjoy it. My plan if I get it would be to simplify holdings, I am not selling 's-t' even if it starts bubbling...well, maybe a bit at 50-70K. I would sell some doge, though, if I had it Just image how Loaded feels.
Wonder what that dude is up to in meatspace. Can't begin to imagine what I would do, were I a Whale-Galaxy like him. Just imagine being a relatively young guy with > $1B in your pocket. Mind blowing. just for a reference-I am reading this book from the market wizards series right now (trying to improve my trading skills, which I may or may not need). https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08C59JPVWOne guy documented making $51 mil out of $2500 account in a decade or so. Amazing stories. |
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On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule. https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-ruleWith a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act. Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet. We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one. The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced. This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress. Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office. In other words, we're fucked. There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention. An annoyance, but foreign exchange rule is of less consequence for most and I doubt that it would be fought hard. We should push for 60-90 days comments, of course. I kind of anticipated this from the beginning and thereby never opened (or at least funded) a mtgox, bitstamp or bitfinex account. Basically, you would have to file a FBAR every time (yearly) you have cash at or over $10K in a foreign account. There are other important points, described below. https://www.greenbacktaxservices.com/blog/determining-need-file-fbar-form-8938/Interesting points (a difference between FBAR and form 8938-that one has much higher monetary limits): Foreign stock, held outside of foreign account: FBAR-NO, form 8938-YES foreign Mutual funds-yes for both FBAR and form 8938 |
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After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?
How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?
I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?
I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...
Ah! Yes, There is more than a thread to check what is the forward price implied by futures markets and options: Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!My suggestion, is also to check those forwards against the Stock to Flow price forecasted for end of 2021. You can check it at www.digitalik.net/BTCnice info! small comments: 1. Deribit is for non-US, for US only LedgerX 2. The gap between bid and ask is huge on ledgerX, I am surprised anything gets traded at all. 3. ledger X options are not very convenient: for later months they are in a HUGE gaps (like 25, 50, 75, 100K) 4. digitalik does not have 'www', so the link (for me) does not go there if used as posted. (EDIT: @fillippone already changed this) |
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Someone said that 29.4K is a Fibonacchi something something number, but I don't think that this market pays attention to such little details.
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Which leads to the logically consequent question - is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?
I'm sure that given the ongoing custom - habits are hard to break - most of the traditional finance world won't take "move inflation the other way - to the right of the decimal dot" so easily. They'd rather rehypothecate, as they are doing for gold and for derivatives based on gold (basically paper money). This is as close to double spending as you can get with btc - through a layer of obfuscating paper. Much too close for my taste.
Once TPTB have their hands on bitcoin, they will come up with new and ingenious ways to keep doing old, disingenuous deeds. One way to avoid that would be a simple way to make sure each satoshi is only hypothecated once, if at all.
Example: I buy a bitcoin ETF, "bakt" by the RealThing. Good. Now I want to know the public address of the btc backing my ETF, and be sure it only backs my shares, not someone else's too. And a loan. And some enterprise capital in some other firm. If such information is easy to find automatically, we can be relatively sure that there will be stern laws against re-hypothecation, and they will be inflexibly enforced.
AFAIK, there are no such instruments, currently. In case of GBTC, private investors give them cash, which they then use to buy "real bitcoin", but then issue GBTC shares in lieu of such bitcoin. Private investors have rights to actual bitcoin (after a year), but I don't think that GBTC shareholders can request to redeem their funds in btc (to my knowledge) and even if they do, it would be counterproductive since GBTC is trading at a premium to its btc holdings. However, maybe funds like you described would be coming when, hopefully, Avanti bank and Kraken bank would finally start to function in Wyoming. According to Caitlin Long, Wyoming passed a law that prohibits re-hypothetication of "digital assets" like bitcoin and they are unique in that regard. hopefully, they would have an investable vehicle that you can put in IRA. However, it is not a big deal, but I already have two btc funds in my Roth IRA-GBTC and CXBTF (XBT provider-some Swedish ETN). CXBTF did the best since I bought it, but it is really illiquid because SEC stopped it trading on US exchanges shortly after I bought it. Interestingly, most people don't know it, but US investors can buy Canadian bitcoin ETN (at least in Fidelity IRA and Roth Ira), trading on Toronto stock exchange (QBTC-U.TO). The good part-it has less premium to btc (when you are buying). The bad thing-it has less premium to btc when you are selling. If you catch it at a wrong time, you might pay premium to buy, but sell with almost no premium if you don't time it right. I know that Fidelity does it, but you need to call to their foreign trade desk and pay $50/trade. |
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Holy fuck. Based on that, I think we will have will have humanoid robots in our homes by 2030. Asimov's "I, robot" stories were some of my favorites when I was in mid school. |
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Pretty much a straight line (or rather ever accelerating parabola) since roughly 11K and no, we can't reach 100K without some corrections (at least 20%).
I am not even sure what is the argument to not have corrections, unless you are in a highly leveraged position. If so, good luck on your "luck".
Hmm that doesn't look like a straight line to me:  Perhaps we are looking at different graphs? I'm not a TA expert or something I'm just sharing my point of view.  And no, I don't play with leverage. look at the weekly...it is a parabola, no doubt about it..., albeit an early/short one. |
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Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".
Nuff said.
I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary. Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000..... Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves). It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher. So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it. Bitcoin does not care, of course. Why can't we have a correction down to $60k (or to say $75k) from $100k? Would that be a significant correction? Hell yeah. But now, frankly I don't see a reason for a correction. No FUD, no overheating (we are not in the parabolic phase), no inflation so why should we go down now? if straight up from here, it will not get to 100K with 99% probability. WTF you are so concerned about corrections...leveraged a bit too much, lol? You know I'm a retarded permabull. But take a look at the BTC graph. It's not a straight line. We're having some sideways and small dumps yet there's upwards pressure and we keep on growing. R u trying to say we can't reach $100k going like this? Pretty much a straight line (or rather ever accelerating parabola) since roughly 11K and no, we can't reach 100K without some corrections (at least 20%). I am not even sure what is the argument to not have corrections, unless you are in a highly leveraged position. If so, good luck on your "luck". Willy Woo
@woonomic
The growth in capital flowing into BTC is now equivalent to Apr 2017 of last cycle. The early bull phase is over, the main phase has started; it's come early.
hmmm...peak in July 2021? Interesting...that would be a first one. I still think that we might be going for two peaks in 2021: first one in March-April, followed by a "valley" during summer, next, a larger peak in Nov-Dec (traditional time frame). Something like 50-70K to 30-35K, then to 150-200K. My issue with that: Doubling in 3 or 4 months is not much of a 'peak'. If you are thinking 2013 style, it was more like $15 to $250 from January to April. That was a peak. from 3.8K in March 2020 to 63.3K in April 2021 is EXACTLY the same factor as in 2013 (15 to 250) and 63.3 K is inside my 50-70K suggestion for a first hump. |
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