Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1344732035546570753?s=21

Google search UP..... noobs are coming ?

That seems to be the case. I've mentioned it in other threads. Searches are up around the world but in countries with high inflation like Argentina or Turkey they are at an ATH. Add that to institutional investors' demand and see what 2021 will bring us.

This is more, earlier than expected.   Which leaves us with the question.  Is this a supercycle?  Or is it just early?

i believe we are in a 2013 kind of scenario:

price will rise until April, peaking somewhere between $80k and $240k.

then a dump during summer with a low in August around $40k to $80k.

2nd peak in Nov/Dez around $500k or even $1mil


uups... new ath...   congrats... observing 29600  

[1715120470]

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[1715120470]

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[1715120470]

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[somac.]

we're heading to reach $30K, personally I'm so much excited. we all hope there no dumps however, I have no clue. It might not happen at all. with so much momentum, BTC might keep climbing.

I expected a dump after hitting $20k, $25k and so on but it hasn't come yet. But there will be one for sure. This can't continue like this.

Institutional investors have strong hands. Get used to it. 

Strong hands yes, and why do they have strong hands, because they are after wealth preservation. They are not looking at Bitcoin as a way to make capital gains. They are using it to preserve the wealth they have already achieved over the last several decades.

They'll only "take profit" when the legacy system has once become stable enough for them to go about normal business. This will take a while with the full blown MMT that is coming down the line. Monetary and fiscal stimulus to the moon, along with those looking to preserve their wealth.

[600watt]

price went up another little smidge? WHAT???!!? DUUUMP EEEET.

never. gets. old.   

[NeuroticFish]

Happy New Year!
And Happy New ATH! (again)

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland and Happy Ecstatic New Year.

Another day, another ATH (29700 Stamp), another micro-correction... currently $29352USD/$37340CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

$30k later today?

Go Bitcoin go.

price went up another little smidge? WHAT???!!? DUUUMP EEEET.

never. gets. old.  

Just fools "taking profit" by buying fiat.

Eventually all they have left is a bunch of fiat and they become bitter no-coiners on the outside looking in.

[serveria.com]

Good morning Bitcoinland and Happy Ecstatic New Year.

Another day, another ATH (29700 Stamp), another micro-correction... currently $29352USD/$37340CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

$30k later today?

Go Bitcoin go.

I have a gut feeling we haven't run out of ATHs for today... 

[Wekkel]

For some ideas to make your comments effective, I found Jake Chervinsky and Ben Davenport helpful
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1340135041746300932
https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

Out of merits but this is an important one. The rule to require KYC (including physical address) will lead to large cryptocurrency holders (digitally) fleeing any US Exchange/Fintech company.

edit: tx, El duderino. Passed some forward to the OP

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/bitstein/status/1344994144805117952?s=20

[bitserve]

Nice stats table, interesting to see them in one place like that, but there is something weird in the up/down arrow column - what is that calculating and how could July be down over 300%?

Well I worked out what was happening: the posts percentage change column is working on the current month instead of the change vs the previous month.  The BTC change column is doing the same thing.

The numbers should look something like this I think:

Month	Posts	Change	BTC/$	$ change
Jan	4,660		$9,352
Feb	4,223	-9%	$8,640	-8%
Mar	6,611	56%	$6,463	-25%
Apr	4,381	-33%	$8,770	36%
May	4,509	3%	$9,462	8%
Jun	2,877	-36%	$9,163	-3%
Jul	673	-77%	$11,333	24%
Aug	2,656	295%	$11,708	3%
Sep	2,742	3%	$10,741	-8%
Oct	2,454	-11%	$13,815	29%
Nov	4,164	70%	$19,507	41%
Dec	4,163	0%	$29,191	50%

July the strangest month - posts down 77% but BTC UP 24% - perhaps everyone was on holiday as the post count number is amazingly low.
Note: ignore the July comment, turns out that was due to a large number of post deletions, and in fact post count went negative that month.

Bob be like:





HAPPY NEW YEAR FULL OF ATH'S EVERYONE!!!

[vroom]

road to 100k, enhanced version:

[Hueristic]

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one.  The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far  https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

[eddie13]

Dude I just won another $750
Idk why..

cuz you bet $1500?

lol have fun

I had about $200 in my pocket when I left last night and pulled another $300 out of the atm..
Have almost $1500 in my pocket this morning even after spending over $200 in just bar tabs..

[Torque]

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one.  The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far  https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

I wouldn't know what to comment other than "This is utter bullshit and an egregious overreach of state power."

[d_eddie]

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one.  The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far  https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

Can't merit, I'm out.

+1 WOsMerit.

Leave an articulate comment there, bros! I already did.

[d_eddie]

And these. Heed Millionero's call, boys!

On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule.
https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-rule
With a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act.
Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet.  
We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one.
The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced.  This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress.  Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office.
In other words, we're fucked.
There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention.

For some ideas to make your comments effective, I found Jake Chervinsky and Ben Davenport helpful
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1340135041746300932
https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

[Hueristic]

Institutional investors have strong hands. Get used to it. 

They don't give up hard assets when they can just print and dole out fake ones.

[hv_]

The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one.  The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far  https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

Not the only thing incoming 2021

Real onchain use for lots of things - in transparent original BitCoin way might be only save here.

No protection on number go up shills

[Hueristic]

Oh yeah and...

[bitserve]

After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?

How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?

I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?

I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...

[fillippone]

After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?

How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?

I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?

I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...

Ah! Yes,
There is more than a thread to check what is the forward price implied by futures markets and options:

Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!
Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!

My suggestion, is also to check those forwards against the Stock to Flow price forecasted for end of 2021.
You can check it at digitalik.net/BTC

Edit: corrected digitalik link as biodom pointed out (as I typed it out of memory)