This statement is completely NOT true.  There are risks with any investment, including bitcoin based on the asset itself and then perhaps based on various ways that normies might execute whatever are their investment techniques.

Also profits are not guaranteed, and the emotions of people vary, so there are people who have lost money in bitcoin, even though bitcoin has historically been an asymmetric bet to the upside, but some people are not able to deal with BTC price volatility so they buy higher than the price that they end up selling.

The more unstable/uncertain your income and your various expenses, then the more likely that you have to be careful in how much you might invest into BTC during each monthly period, but the mere fact that your income and/or expenses are erratic should not necessarily stop you from regularly investing, even if you might have some ups and downs in the amounts that you invest during any particular monthly period based on the erratic nature of your cashflow and/or expenses. 

It seems also that if your income/expenses are erratic, then you would need to maintain a larger emergency fund (or maybe you just might call it a cashflow stabilizing fund or a slush fund.. If you already know that your cashflow and/or expenses are erratic, then those shortages in discretionary cash would be part of the regular expectations, and not "emergencies."..  There are some people who contribute to their own emergencies by failing/refusing to adequately maintain sufficient levels of a cushion (or slush fund) that would account for variance in their discretionary cashflow.

For sure I was not even thinking about shitcoins as alternative investments, when I mentioned alternative investments I was thinking more in terms of traditional investments that people have such as property, equities, bonds or other cash equivalents, commodities, and so it is a pretty fucking BIG distraction if a lot of shitcoiners (maybe even you included) to be even going down the road to thinking that shitcoins are something that anyone should be investing into as if they were really any kind of a reasonable alternative to bitcoin.   Bitcoin is the leader of the space, so their is not need to invest into anything that is largely already dependent upon the BTC price, so why add more risk to anything that anyone does, so if someone is already having difficulties figuring out if they are even able to invest $10 per week into something or anything, then why the fuck would they even consider diluting that investment into shitcoins.

Focus on bitcoin first, it is not like they have a lot of money in the first place, and then maybe once they start to get  to the point of having 1/2 of a year or even a whole years income saved up, then maybe at that point, if they are still interested in fucking around with shitcoins or gambling with their investment portfolio, at least they can consider those kinds of possibilities based on their having had built up an investment portfolio.


Yes, people can do whatever they like, and they get easily distracted into nonsense and gambling and perhaps believing that they are investing when they are gambling with shitcoins.  So yeah, if part of the topic of this thread is already describing situations in which normal (or poor or minimum wage) people are having troubles gathering enough of an income to invest into anything, then it seems way more important and practical to be focusing on their investment into something like bitcoin, rather than potentially diluting their investment, if they feel that they want to get distracted into nonsense and crap, and even though people do those kinds of things, it seems a bit of a distraction to be suggesting that I was even thinking about shitcoins in terms of what poor people should be considering - even though we know that shticoin pumpers and scammers have a lot of talking points to take advantage of the ignorances of people.. and even pray upon some of their desperations and desires to get rich quick or to get themselves out of their shitty financial circumstances.

Your quotes are fucked up.. but I fixed them within my post.... and largely it was because you seemed to have had copied and pasted an extra "[quote author=JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg62661490#msg62661490 date=1691431597" in front of where I say "That's the spirit!!!!".. it is not necessary to have that [quote author=JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg62661490#msg62661490 date=1691431597 there because the earlier use of the [quote author=JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg62661490#msg62661490 date=1691431597 covers that particular quote.  If that attempted explanation makes any sense.


$24k seems like a pretty high price point to be proclaiming that the BTC price will "never" go below.

I prefer to attempt to think of these matters in a kind of graduated way, yet we should attempt to lock in the timeframe too.  If we are talking about never or if we might be talking about this cycle so maybe in the next 3-6 months?  Or maybe we could pick "prior to the halvening" or some other timeframe that we might want to consider as a possible relevant talking point. 

So then once we pick the time, and let me just presume that you meant prior to the halvening (rather than ever), so if we might say that going below the 200-week moving average might be 50/50 chances, or maybe even greater than 50/50 chances.  We are not very far away from the 200-week moving average (currently at $27,218), even though it continues to move up at nearly $16 per day... so then $24k is really not very far from the 200 week moving average either, but maybe the odds might get as low as 20% to 30%, but surely not as low as zero.. but if we might want to be ballsy about it, maybe we could proclaim going below $24k is less than 10%, yet I will still consider you as an exaggerator (or overly confident) if you are placing those kinds of odds on that price, even if you might really believe it, even if you are not sharing your beliefs with others, and even if you might end up being correct, it still does not seem that you are being realistic when you try to make such strict assignments of probabilities.


The probabilities are still a graduation.. so if we might say, around 50% odds that we go below $27,218 (or the 200-week moving average), 25% odds that we go below $24k, 20% odds that we go below $22k, we are still likely going to get to somewhere between 10% and 18% odds of going below $20k - and again, if you try to proclaim that the odds are zero or close to zero, then I am going to call you delusional, but I might not call you delusional if you give me a reasonably low ball number.. maybe I could live with as low as 6or7%.. perhaps?.. though 10% seems to already be pretty low, so sure, we don't necessarily need to agree, but if you are going with anything below 6% I am going to start to question your ability to reasonable attempt to assign probabilities.


Well I have largely been attempting to set these kinds of ongoing BTC buy orders (even extremes), since the beginning of my bitcoining.. so even when I started to buy in late 2013, I was trying to buy dips, even when I was the earliest days of my DCA'ing practices too. 

I did not really sell any BTC without immediately replacing until about August or so of 2015, and at that time, I started a practice in which I created formulas for myself for amounts of BTC that I could sell on the way up .... and so it was ONLY small factions of what my profits would have had been, so if I had 10 BTC and the BTC price went up $10, then my profits would be $100, and so the most that I could sell from those profits would be 50%, but most commonly I would only allow myself to sell less than 25% of the profits amounts (at most)... So as the cash would pile up, then that money would just be set up in order to buy BTC back on dips, and if the BTC price did not dip, then the money would either be spent or just placed into a kind of long-term reserve fund that might still be dedicated to BTC buys without specifically having any exact earmarks as to when it might be used.

In my earliest days of attempting to prepare myself financially and psychologically for either BTC price direction (and especially BTC price dips), I frequently made mistakes that revolved around running out of money to buy BTC way too soon because the BTC price would frequently dip further or for longer than anticipated, so I frequently would get close to running out of money, even if I never really did technically run out of money, but practically the way that I would have to begin to reduce my BTC buy orders, then I would still consider that whatever errors that I had made were still within a kind of category of running out of money.

I feel that in the past 7-8 years, I have gotten quite a bit better at not buying back too much BTC too soon, but I have not completely removed myself from such issue, and even in during the BTC price run up in 2021, I had slowly retracted a lot of the cash that I had reserved for BTC buy backs going down to $9k or so, and by the time we got into about May 2022, my BTC buy orders ONLY went down to the 200-week moving average which was then right below $22k - however, in mid May 2022, when the BTC prices suddenly dropped from upper $30ks to upper $20ks, I had myself a bit of an "oh fuck!" moment.  I pretty much had to resize and rearrange several of my buy orders so they would go down to below $20k, and even though I still hoped that the BTC price would not go below $20k, I made those preparations, and when the BTC prices kept dropping, I had to continue to rearrange and ultimately I had to add more value from outside funds in order to create buy orders going down to nearly $10k. and currently the lowest of the remaining ones are sitting around $13k.. but of course, if we ended up experiencing BTC prices in the lower $20ks or even sub $20ks, I may well have to restructure the lowest of my current BTC buy orders....

So, I am bringing up my various experiences between May 2022 and December-ish 2022 in order to describe adjustments that I have had to make that attempt to prepare me for extreme scenarios, even ones that I do not expect to happen and that I don't even want to happen, but I have the money on reserve at those price points in order that I don't have to worry about having capital already allocated to take advantage of extreme scenarios that I still consider to be very low probability events.. that may well even be in a below 5% scenario at present time to go down to $13k in this cycle or even in the next year or so, seems like less than 5% odds.


It seems to be a good idea to attempt to prepare for extremes.. which maybe by definition would be low probability events that you believe not likely to happen, but at the same time, it is likely a good practice to not be putting very much energy and efforts into preparing for the extreme scenarios, but instead more efforts should be made to attempt to prepare for more likely scenarios and/or to make sure that in the end you are prepared for BTC UPpity, especially if you believe that BTC has good odds of going up.. but you should not necessarily be preparing for Armageddon, even though perhaps a bit of Armageddon preparations is within the realm of reasonableness.  In other words, if an event is 1% or2% or even less than 5% likely, you should not be putting 20%, or more preparations into such extremely unlikely scenarios.


It's o.k. not to agree on some things or even not to agree on several things, but sure, if we both agree with the prospects that bitcoin is going up, then we might at least have some common areas in which we might not need to battle..  until we get into the going up phase, and sometimes there can be disagreements regarding both how much we expect BTC prices to go up and also disagreements regarding how to deal with those kinds of happenings once they start to play out.  There are people who believe in selling all of their coins at strategic points, so I argue with those kinds of people frequently... so even people can agree on 80% or 90% of things, and then sometimes get into a BIG battle over the things about which they disagree.

What I get from that illustration (questioning why we need to try to figure out any particular dilemmas that the blind shitcoiners might be having..when the solution has likely been staring into the faces of their lil selfies.. like dorothy always had the power to go home.. she just didn't know it) and from SR's comment is fuck shitcoins.

What people actually do, and what I believe that they should do (for their own good) may well be two different stories, as you suggested. 

There are really smart people who have hardly any clues about how to manage their own finances, and surely there are people who engage in mediocre management of their finances because for sure they have to get used to paying their monthly bills, and if they want to save money on overdraft fees and even exceeding their credit limit, then they should be trying to figure out ways to live within their means, and to manage their income in such a way that they have enough money that they do not suffer from penalties.. but surely people do end up paying a lot of penalties, and then just figure that is the cost of the way that they live when they sometimes want some things that they cannot afford right away.

Yes, we all know these kinds of people and there are likely more basic ways to improve their management of their finances, and there are likely more advanced ways to improve their management of their finances.

People who are more able to aggressively invest and even to aggressively invest into bitcoin (without devolving into gambling practices) likely have pretty good ideas about various aspects of their finances and their cashflow.. including having cushions within their budget too.

Even wealthy people may not manage their finances very well, but they also likely have either a greater income or just a lot more wealth to draw upon if they end up screwing things up... so maybe they keep an emergency fund that is like $100k that they can dip into whenever they are screwing up their monthly cashflows, and then they might have other sources in which they can replenish their $100k reserve fund in the event that their cash flows are not sufficiently covering their monthly expenses.

Even with myself, when I first started in bitcoin in late 2013, I was attempting to be quite meticulous with the various ways that I was buying and keeping track of matters, but after a few years of doing that, there were times in which I felt that I had a much greater financial (and therefore psychological) cushion to be able to not worry so much if I might be paying higher fees, so long as the amount of the various gains were covering the fees, then sure the gains might have had been less, but there were times that I just engaged in ballparking kinds of practices because I could still see that generally speaking, the gains were quite a bit greater than the fees, so then it was worth the behavior to pay high fees because the gains were greater.

So, I suppose part of my point is that a lot of people would likely be advantaged by figuring out their finances better, and maybe some folks who had been failing/refusing to invest into anything beyond maybe their personal residence and their 401k plan would be able to start to invest into other things, such as bitcoin, and the more that they get their shit together in terms of figuring out their various finances, the more aggressive investment tactics that they are going to be able to employ into bitcoin without necessarily devolving into gambling behaviors.

Well, I hope that you do figure out some kind of a way to figure out some kind of a reasonable balance that works for your in order that you are able to be as aggressive that you are able to be in terms of your bitcoin investment, but at the same time, not being so aggressive that you are not watching out for your own monthly expenses, including having some emergency funds available, because you should want to avoid dipping into your bitcoin investment, presuming that you start to build a BTC investment portfolio.

There are people who work their whole lives and never are able to get to fuck you status or even to a kind of comfortable ability to retire, and even if bitcoin does not completely bring you to fuck you status, it could end up giving you options to be able to supplement your income (and of course, there are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to perform better than any other investment options that are available to you). 

By the way.. think about it.  Even if you are able to put away 10% of your yearly income (and you believe that your yearly income is enough for you to live upon), it is going to take you right around 10 years to be able to put away a whole year's income.. and for sure, you are going to want anything that you invest into to be able to hold its value decently well, and hopefully even better than other options (alternatives) that you might have available. 

No one can guarantee that bitcoin will perform better, than options that you currently have available, but surely many folks do consider bitcoin to be amongst the best of asymmetric bets to the upside (if not the best).. so surely it could be helpful to figure out ways to invest into it.. and even perhaps increase your income in order that you can invest into it earlier.. and then hopefully all of that ends up paying off.. but you can also continue to learn about bitcoin and to study it and to maybe tweak some of your BTC accumulation and BTC maintenance strategies along the way.. while you continue to study it, and if you are ONLY putting $10 per week into bitcoin, you still might be better off then someone who had chosen not to invest into bitcoin... and yeah, even your options to avoid fees, (or to lessen fees) or ways that you choose to store your BTC so that you don't lose them, may well change over time, too.

When it comes to analyzing our own finances, each of us should be attempting to understand how to analyze our own portfolios and to figure out how much allocations that we want to attempt to achieve in each of the various categories, including setting our goals and figuring out each of our individual particulars.

Surely, some people do consult with financial advisors in order to help them with their finances, and figuring out how to set each of the categories, and then how to aim towards achieving their various financial goals that would also include attempting to accommodate an appropriate level of psychological comfort too.  The psychology and the finances likely feed off of one another, because if the finances are set in more comfortable ways, then more psychological comfort should accompany that.


One of the most valuable things that any of us can bring to the table in regards to any conversation is various aspects of our personal experiences, and then to attempt to describe how some of those personal experiences might contribute towards our perspective, assessments and opinions, but we have to also recognize and appreciate that we might be wrong about some of the aspects of our assessments of facts, logic, conclusions and maybe even various opinions and analysis, but we might not be wrong about our personal experiences, even though sometimes the personal experiences might not be very relevant to any conversation unless you figure out ways to include them into the discussion (to the extent that you are even willing to give up OPsec or even to describe personal experiences in such a way that might not give up too many OPSec kinds of details).

Let's say that you own right around 1 BTC, and you are proud that you have been able to accumulated so much wealth that is held in BTC, yet you don't necessarily want anyone to know that you own right around 1 BTC, and you might bring up the topic of how you have been diligently building your BTC portfolio over the past 4 years, and you have made some mistakes along the way, but overall you are happy that you have been able to accumulate your BTC for an average price that is less than $20k per BTC, so you are feeling quite good about that, yet at the same time, you expect that you are still going to need to continue to focus on accumulating BTC for the next 10 years in order to either reach your accumulation goals and/or for BTC prices to continue to go up enough that you start to feel comfortable that your BTC accumulation levels might allow you to be able to discontinue working - if that might be a goal of yours... so maybe your goal is to try to double your current BTC holdings in the next 10-15 years, and even though you are not sure about it, you might be able to engage in some kinds of specific discussions without necessarily giving away too many of the specifics... but maybe talking in terms of strategies, or percentages... and maybe you could bring up some examples of dollar amounts or BTC amounts and perhaps use hypotheticals in order to attempt to make your points.. including that some of the hypothetical examples might kind of look like your own situation.. or they might be 1/10 smaller than your situation or maybe 10x larger than your situation. or some other multiple that you choose to employ.

You may or may not need to get into revealing details in order to be able to frame your story in such a way that outlines some of your goals and how they might relate to BTC or how they might relate to any discussion that is going on.


Sure the WO OP has some relevance, but also the WO OP might be misleading.. in terms of the WO thread and some of its history... including that the person who created the thread (AdamstgBit) had largely ended up losing his account in late 2016 or early 2017, but he did not try to get his account back because he was having a bit of a pissy-fit with theymos and even turned into a BIG blocker nutjob, so at one point in around early 2017, theymos shut down the thread, which caused a lot of forum members to get upset and to petition the forum/theymos to reopen the thread and so after a couple of weeks of the thread being closed we ended up electing a new thread owner, which is how InfoFont became the owner of the thread...

Sure there is some history in that thread that may or may not matter, and there were various reasons for wanting to shut down the thread, and even changes in some of the rules of the thread based on some of its historical context.. .including that even before the thread had shut down, it was already being treated as a kind of "almost anything goes - except pumping shitcoins" troll box of the forum..

All within the same post?

That seems to be more appropriately called "wiffle-waffling."

I would not call it "learning and growing.".. but hey.. whatever.  You do you.   


But what do your proclamations mean?

Are we soon^tm getting out of the "don't wake me up zone," or not?


King daddy is doing this, just for you, bawb.

I am not sure why, but I do know that shit does happen.


I might be guilty of what LL seems to be criticizing.

I recall that around November / December 2022, the 200-week moving average was ONLY moving up around $10 per day.

So if a hypothetical person in a similar position to uie-pooie (or to your previous hypothetical person) were to have 20 bitcoin, then in November/December 2022, the value of that person's BTC portfolio would have had been going up right around $200 per day.

So now that the 200-week moving average is going up right close to $16 per day, so conditions have improved for that hypothetical person who may well be still holding 20 BTC, and currently such person is getting right around $320 per day increased value from those 20 BTC.

Let's say that such hypothetical person spends around 100 days (a bit more than 3 months without cashing out any BTC, and perhaps even acquiring more BTC (and maybe we get  up to 21 BTC at some point?)), and even if the size of the BTC holdings largely stays the same at 20-ish BTC, by not cashing out any of those BTC, we have just built up around $32k in extra value - a further cushion upon which we could draw without depleting the value of our BTC holdings, if we were to want to exercise such an option which comes merely from BTC value appreciation that is based upon the rate of the 200-week moving average going up at a higher pace than it had in the past.. but also its base is continuing to build and build and build, too. 

Remember March 2020 when BTC prices dipped below the 200-week moving average?  The BTC price went down to $3,850-ish, and the 200-week moving average was ONLY around $5,488-ish.. and it was moving up at a slower pace, too.. like only a dollar or two per day. 

It just seems kind of fascinating to me, including that the value continues to go up at an increasing pace and it seems to be a kind of compounding upon itself, and still the newbies are likely to continue to have painful years in terms of their acquiring BTC and getting their BTC holdings into profits, but at the same time, for those who have been in BTC for a decently long time, it remains ongoingly interesting to lively witness how the theories seem to be playing out in practice and showing in the indicators.

And, by the way,  how difficult do you believe that it would be for the PTB or anyone else.. a bitcoin naysayer, a anti-bitcoin whale, to cause the 200-week moving average to discontinue moving up?.. sure they might slow it down.. perhaps? perhaps?  But, I am getting the sense that the 200-week moving average is going to continue to compound upon itself and the substantive rate upon which it moves up is going to get greater and greater and greater (even if the percentage might not exactly be increasing.. the percentage is probably like to slope downwardly... but still.. it is still an exciting phenomena, even for people who might not have as many BTC.. but surely better for those who have BTC than for those who either are low coiners or who do not have any BTC)

Nope. 

You should know better than that.   

You are still fighting the hypothetical.

You cannot use an agent to do the same thing that you would want to do but are not able to do and which is for you to be able to get outside of the hypothetical.

Hint, hint... you need to work within the parameters of the hypothetical, including both the technicalities and the spirit of the hypothetical.

Try again.


Ok... so it sounds like you are choosing BTC rather than the $10 million.  Right?


He didn't find a loophole, or even anything clever at all, even if that is what he might have thought that he had accomplished. 

He is fighting the hypothetical...and not working within its parameters in order to answer the question.


NOT.


Just like a shitcoiner.


You are correct.

Very creative.


So creative that they can create their own rules of physics, right?

Are you sure that you are in the right thread BitcoinPak?

Maybe you accidentally choose your name wrong? 

What about changing your name to "VitalikPak".. that has a nice ring to it.

 


Not me.

I wouldn't have had guessed.

Did I miss something?

I would consider that minimum wage is not necessarily a "normal" wage, even though every country likely has people (and perhaps even a lot of people) who do actually work at those level of income.

I am not going to claim to know the answers for people, and if we are in a situation where we are having trouble getting work, and the ONLY kinds of work that we are able to get are minimum wage jobs, then likely we have to consider our situation and to consider if we are actually content with that kind of a way of earning income from our work.

I am not even going to deny that some of us likely come from pretty lucky/privileged positions in terms fo having likely had been able to earn quite a bit more than the minimum wages in our own countries...and then of course, compared to other countries of lower wages, then there can be additional feelings of privilege, even though it has already been pointed out that if we come from a country that has higher minimum wages, then it is likely that the cost of living is higher too..., but aspects of the infrastructure might be better as well.. .. a lot of  variables... and sure quite  a bit of luck in terms of what we were born into and whether or not there might be some ways to work towards and/or to achieve social mobility.. and if we have desires to attempt to work towards social mobility or to accept that:

"minimum wage" = "normal"

Another thing is that hardly anyone knew about bitcoin in 2009-2012-ish.. and so as the years past, more and more people learned about bitcoin, and then questions might have come up whether any of us might have heard about bitcoin, thought about bitcoin, and then decided to buy some, in case it were to catch on.

Now, it is starting to seem that bitcoin is catching on more and more and more, and maybe it is unrealistic to even consider trying to get a whole BTC.. and so work on getting as many satoshis as you can, and maybe if you are able to buy 100s of thousands of satoshis, and if you are able to continue to do that for 10 years or more, then you likely might end up finding yourself in a place that few if any of your country men would be able to achieve if they were to start buying into bitcoin 10 years down the road, and you got a head start over them of 10 years or more... .so the answer frequently tends to be to get the fuck started accumulating whatever you are able to accumulate, and don't get too worked up about relatively arbitrary accumulation targets that you may or may not be able to achieve anyhow.

several thousand satoshis is good, hundreds of thousands of satoshis is even better, millions of satoshis is even better than that - etc etc etc.. and there may or may not be an ability to achieve 100 million satoshis, but you are in a much closer position to achieving 100 million satoshis after you have already acquired millions of satoshis than you would be if you are starting from zero... which will likely continue to be the case in the future .. . since many of us likely realize that BTC prices are likely to go up forever, Laura.

It seems that people who want to HODL BTC for the long term and to potentially profit greatly from holding it, including having decently good chances of having more options by having bitcoin rather than if they did not have it, need to be very careful in terms of figuring out how many BTC they are going to sell and at which price points.  At the same time, don't get me wrong since it seems to be a way better practice to have some kind of a plan rather than not having a plan, and personally I believe any plan that sells most if not all BTC at various price points is a short-sighted plan that likely either does not understand what bitcoin is or fails/refuses to appreciate the various values in not trying to trade bitcoin.. which also gets back down to not really understanding what bitcoin is.  So if you have one of the best, if not the best, property asset in the world (namely bitcoin), then why are you going to be fucking around with selling very large portions of it, and if you do sell some of it, then perhaps you should just consider shaving off relatively small amounts at various price points along the way, whether you are selling 10% at a time or some other somewhat reasonable and relatively small amount.

And, surely, time is likely your friend.  Let me give a few examples.. spot price currently $29k and 200-week moving average currently $27,218.

Hypothetical HODLer 1:
HH1 has been in BTC for about 10 years, and bought a decent amount of coins between 2014 and 2016, so has an average price per BTC of around $1k per coin... let's say the stash is right around 80 BTC.  (so around $80k invested, and a spot price value of about $2.32 million, and a 200-week moving average price value of about $2.1774 million)

Hypothetical HODLer 2:
HH2 has been in BTC for about 5 years, and bought a decent amount of coins between 2018 and 2020, so has an average price per BTC of around $10k per coin... let's say the stash is right around 15 BTC.  (so around $150k invested, and a spot price value of about $435k, and a 200-week moving average price value of about $408.3k)

Hypothetical HODLer 3:
HH3 has been in BTC for a little more than 3.5 years (since the beginning of 2020), and is still pretty steadily buying BTC on a regular basis, so has an average price per BTC of around $20k per coin... let's say the stash is right around 1 BTC.  (so around $20k invested, and a spot price value of about $29k, and a 200-week moving average price value of about $27.2k).. 

Hypothetical HODLer 4:
HH4 has been in BTC for a little more than 2.5 years (since the beginning of 2021), and is still pretty steadily buying BTC on a regular basis, so has an average price per BTC of around $27.2k per coin... let's say the stash is right around 2.5 BTC.  (so around $68k invested, and a spot price value of about $72.5k, and a 200-week moving average price value of about $68k).. barely at break-even in accordance with 200-week moving average .. and slightly in profits based on spot price.

These four hypothetical persons are in different positions in terms of building their BTC stash, and perhaps ONLY HH1 should feel at very much liberty at all to be selling any of his BTC as the BTC price goes up, and sure there could be various points in which any of the other hypothetical HODLers could choose to sell some (or all) of their BTC, such as:

$50k-ish,

$90k-ish

$120k-ish

$180k-ish

$240k-ish

$490k-ish

$780k-ish


$940k-ish


$1.2 million-ish

$1.5 million-ish


$1.88 million-ish


And perhaps various other price points that are completely individually choosen in regards to whether to sell and if so how much to sell, and so if you know how many BTC that you currently have, and you might be able to project how many BTC that you might have at the various price points that you choose for yourself, then you can figure out how much BTC are you going to sell at each of the above points, and likely your way of thinking about the matters may well be different if you are in a position similar to HH1, HH2, HH3 or HH4.

No one is going to tell you what the answer is in terms of whether to sell and if so how much to sell while you may well be wanting to make sure that you have BTC in case the BTC price goes up rather than corrects as you might anticipate which way you believe the BTC price to be, and you may well end up not being correct in terms of your expectations, and then if you end up being wrong, have you sufficiently/adequately prepared for being wrong.. and was it worth it to even take the risk of lessening your bitcoin stash.. and if you lessen it, is the amount that you lessen it by an acceptable amount in the event that you might end up being wrong?  Questions that each of us need to consider and to answer for ourselves, including figuring out if we sufficiently/adequately understand what bitcoin is.


Sure, buying low can give you more options, but it may not really matter very much if HH1's average cost per BTC is $1k, $2k or $3k.. .. Sure, for HH1 it is better to have average costs of $1k per BTC rather than those higher average cost possibilities, but it might not make a real big difference to be fucking around too much in terms of trying to figure out how much of a dip is enough to buy some BTC.. and then the various points in which to buy BTC. 

Many people can ONLY buy BTC as their money comes in, and sure some people are able to divert some of the value of some of their other investments into bitcoin, but they might not be able to do that all at once, and they might need to do it over time, and then there can be questions about whether to use debt or credit to buy bitcoin, which may end up causing a decently good bet (such as bitcoin) to become more risky in terms of losing your BTC stash and also losing other assets if the BTC price does not move in the direction that you had been expecting in the time frame that you had been expecting.

So frequently the answers (including in terms of bitcoin investing) tend to revolve around time-in the market rather than timing the market, just like we see with HH1, HH2, HH3 and HH4 above.  It can take a long time to build up your BTC holdings, while at the same time, those who got into bitcoin earlier, accumulated earlier, tended to HODL and not fuck around with trying to trade their BTC have likely ended up doing better than those who have not been so solidly consistent and convicted in terms of accumulating and HODLing their BTC.

You also have dilemmas when you come into bitcoin, including that when you are still in your early BTC accumulation stages whether you are going to try to attempt to rush your own BTC accumulation phase and to attempt to gamble in terms of the ways that you attempt to accumulate BTC and build your BTC stash, so you may well have some guarantees of continuing to build your BTC stash, but at the same time, if you try to rush your own BTC accumulation process and to build your BTC stash using gambling techniques, you may well end up with fewer BTC than what you could have had due to your unsuccessfully trying to outsmart the market.

From my understanding, Buddy ONLY stacks sandwiches, especially after s/he/it was introduced to such sandwiches, and likely Buddy is pissed off at those (that) forum member(s) who had been feeding him/her/it, and discontinued in such.


It's called a delusion eXPHorizon.

Now if you were to buy some BTC, then that would be another story.

Otherwise, you are just in a fantasy world, and ONLY brought back to reality a couple times a day when grandma delivers cookies and milk, and I am not even suggesting that grandma might not be enabling you in your dumb fantasies, since she happens to adore you and actually says that she believes whatever you say.


Why such anger?

Hopefully you are not cheering for down.

You never know with peeps in these here parts.

$29k does not seem to be a bad number to me.. I mean overall, given everything going on in the world.. and just think how many opportunties people have been getting to buy BTC at these here prices (within the "don't wake me up range," and are they going to be buying?

A similar thing happened 2015.  A lot of opportunties to buy below $1k.. and even more opportunties to buy within the $200s.

And remember 2019 and 2020?  We had a lot of opportunities to buy below $10k.. and a lot of that time was even below $7k.. I can remember quite well.. and at the same time, some of those sub-$10k prices seem so far in the distance, even though we spent some parts of 2018 and a decent amount of 2019 and even quite a bit of 2020 below $10k.. and.... but seems that we are not going back there..  .. and $29k feels pretty decent..  could be better, but surely could be worse, too.

Yes.  Good luck with those down before up expectations, including how low that you are placing your bets.

No BIG deal to have some "down before up" buy orders out there, as long as you are not necessarily feeling any kind of expectation that they are going to fill.

It seems that in the past few weeks, I had posted in another thread and disclosed that I had around 2.5% of my total BTC allocated investment funds that are in cash, and so currently, I have BTC buy orders all the way down to $13k-ish, but I really don't expect anything to fill lower than $24k-ish.. but sure if some of them end up filling lower than $24k, then so be it, but I don't expect it and I don't even want it...

Also, it seems that the odds are becoming greater and greater that we are not even going to get a revisiting of the 200-week moving average, which is currently at $27,203.

Sure, the 200-week moving average has not shown itself to be impenetrable, but it still well me be the case that we are moving back into more normal times.

Remember 2015, when BTC had spent right around 8 months mostly dancing in the mid-$200s, towards the end of that period, the BTC price made one last dash down towards attempting to break below $200 before it shot up to $500 and then spent the next 6 months in the lower $400s before largely resuming uppity, but surely gradually building up over the next year or so to top off in late 2017...

And, we were kind of spoiled in 2019.. even though we got the crazy ass macro dip in early 2020 - even though a lot of people consider that to have had been quite an aberation of a "down before up" kind of a situation.. but maybe that down before up did end up helping out the up to take place and then bitcoin recovered better than any other asset, if we were to measure from just before the March 2020 dip and then to see where BTC went in 2021 including accounting for its 2022 corrections, as depressing as those 2022 corrections might feel for some of us, including the nearly 8 month period of breaching below the 200-week moving average, so people expecting to return below the 200-week moving average may well be engaged in wishes, rather than realistic financial and psychological preparations for more likely scenarios...

and I am not even saying that the odds are greater than 50/50 that the 200-week moving average might not be tested again before UPpity takes place.. and I am also not saying that UPpity is guaranteed, even though you will feel real frustrated if you have not prepared for UPpity, just in case it might happen, and you don't even really need that much in order to be prepared.. for the outliers of $1 or 2 million this cycle.. hey.. not even giving them very high odds, but there are a lot of points in between $30k and $2million that have higher odds, and whether they happen or not, seemingly smarter folks are prepared by accumulating and HODLing some BTC, just in case.


true dat.


That's the spirit!!!!

I am glad that you moved away from the earlier doom and gloom in your post, but we know it is good to be prepared for either direction, which surely is a thing that is possible to accomplish.

You need to be careful about suggesting that people sell BTC at various price points - especially if you are suggesting that they would be "taking profits" by selling because there are a lot of people who have way too few bitcoin, and if they end up selling bitcoin too early and/or BTC price does not end up falling, the they may well end up screwing up and engaging in bad practices - including that this thread is not really about selling BTC to make profits, but instead investing in the long term, continuing to accumulate BTC, and perhaps down the road many more options could well be available due to a practice of primarily accumulating BTC over many years, even if there are UPs and downs along the way.  

We cannot necessarily know at which points most people are going to have had reached overly high levels of BTC accumulation that might make it prudent for them to shave off some BTC along the way, and maybe selling a low enough amount that they are not worried about if the BTC price never ends up dropping down so that they can buy BTC back from the proceeds of the BTC that they had sold...

Again, most people do not have enough BTC.. so it may well take a while before building up enough of a stash in which the BTC HODLer might be starting to fell that s/he owns too much BTC.

Another problematic area in which you are suggesting to sell around the time of the halvening, and sure maybe a BTC pump will come around the halvenings, but several times, it has taken several months before the supply constrains (that are a result of the halvening) are starting to be felt.. so for example in 2020, the halvening happened in May, and there was a bit of a prehalvening pump, and then there was a pump at the end of 2020, and then there was a pump in the beginning of 2021 and then there was a pump at the end of 2021.  So how are you going to know which pump and hopefully people do not sell too much too early, even though we know that many times there are folks who end up selling way too many BTC too soon.

Similar in 2012 and in 2016....there were several times in which the BTC price pumped quite a lot, but it kept pumping.. so some guys sold too much BTC too soon in each of those pumps, and then they end up having regrets about it. .including not knowing when to buy back and sometimes ending up buying back higher than their sell price.. and all kinds of weird things can happen when BTC HODLers sell way too many BTC too soon and speculate that they are going to be able to buy back cheaper but the BTC price ends up continuing to go up and they would have had been better off to not have had been fucking around with selling in the first place because they did not even have enough BTC in their investment portfolio.

That would be a long time to stay in the "don't wake me up" zone of perhaps $25k to $35k.... which more specifically would be an additional 8 months... and we have already been here nearly 5 months,. .. I am not buying it.  13 months?  Not buying it.  Not buying it.

In udder wurdz, the odds don't seem to be very strong for such a scenario of continuing to stay in this "don't wake me up" zone for a total of 13-ish months... what are we going to say?  less than 15% odds for such a scenario to play out? 

in udder wurdz, why give such a minority scenario so much attention?


Maybe I got those odds wrong?  Perhaps?  Almost anything is possible.

The ETF owners might think that they are smarter than they are able to be in regards to their thinking that they might be able to control aspects of BTC, which might end up being a BIG lesson for them - but in the meantime, there could end up being a lot of confusion in terms of people who put their money with the various ETFs and come to the false conclusions that they own the bitcoin, when the ETF owner actually owns the bitcoin, so there may well be some folks (including governments, institutions and rich people) who become educated in regards to the benefits of figuring out ways to get exposure to BTC prices through holding their own BTC rather than giving money to other entities who may or may not be ready, willing and/or able to act in their interest...

...and perhaps some of the rules of custody could end up getting changed because of the various contractual relations that ETFs enter with their clients/and governments, and I would imagine that rich people, institutions and governments do not appreciate when the end up getting rug pulled... just like individual normies do not appreciate getting rug pulled.. but bitcoin gives them a vehicle to hold their own keys. .and perhaps they are in charge of their own rug pulls of themselves rather than trusting third parties that might not be as trustworthy as they appear to be on the surface.


Oh gawd....  

do you even know how to read?

Look at the hypothetical.

If you choose dollars, then you cannot buy bitcoin again..

so don't be trying to weasel out of the hypothetical...or the spirit of the hypothetical.. 

..which is that you have to choose one of them and you have to live with the consequences... yeah, I can see some circumstances in which you might end up choosing dollars rather than bitcoin and that is if you are going to die in 3-5 years, then maybe the choice is easy.. take the $10 million and spend it or whatever..

...but the whatever is not so broad that you can buy something that relates to bitcoin in order that you can get bitcoin exposure.. you are stuck with fiat related products.... spend it to consume or perhaps spend it on some fiat related products.. maybe property that is not bitcoin related.

Try again.

You don't necessarily need to understand all of the posts, and since the thread is over 10 years old, sometimes members will bring up their memories of topics that had been discussed months earlier or even years earlier, and surely sometimes the reference might not be clear.  You could go back and read some older posts or just jump in at any post, and sometimes members might attack you for being a troll, a newbie to the thread, a shitcoin poster, but if you are posting about bitcoin and you are asking questions and trying to share information rather than trying to act like you know everything, then generally members will be more open and receptive to your posts. 

I know that sometimes when the BTC price is not moving very much or maybe if seemingly negative things are happening in bitcoin, then there could be some of the members who have stronger feelings about certain topics, too... 

I started posting in the thread in February 2014, and many times members would ignore my posts, so it sometimes can take a while for other members to get to know you, and sometimes some them like you and some of them hate you for some of the things that you post or maybe sometimes they have their own issues and/or pet peeves, or perhaps some of them might be trying to test you. .to make you mad and to see if you break or not.. .. getting too emotional in forum threads can be one of the ways to go crazy and to also lose arguments, to the extent that you even care about whether you win or lose any arguments that might be thrown in your direction.


Yeah, but I was not really talking about "finding threads"  I was mostly referring to following threads that you have already begun to follow or following threads that you might want to post into.

Finding threads seems to be a different topic, that I did not even touch upon, yet.


Yes... you could do that, but the forum has a watchlist feature, but sure, you might find ways to use bookmarks in a more effective ways than using the forum's watchlist feature.  For sure, your choice.


hahahaha.. I am not always helpful.. Sometimes I am mean, as some members point out to me from time to time... which reminds me that we can get into trouble if we are off topic in these kinds of threads, but the WO allows you to talk about nearly any topic, so long as you are not pumping shitcoins.


Thanks for providing that link.  I was having trouble locating that thread, and also yes, fillippone has quite a few good threads, but sometimes if some of his threads were started a few years ago, they might not be as active right now.

I am not sure if I am saying that.

I am saying that shitcoins are frequently engaging in affinity scams, but they surely have rights to exist and none of us can stop them.  Also, you have rights to invest in whatever you want, whether it is actually investing or gambling.

However, I am also saying that if you are talking about bitcoin and shitcoins as if they are the same thing or similar things, you likely do not sufficiently know what bitcoin is, and also if you are talking about shitcoins in certain bitcoin threads on the forum, then you may well be either off topic or you are being vague in regards to what you are talking about... especially if you use vague an undefined terms such as "crypto" or "crypto currencies."


One of the main dynamics of an affinity scam may well be to attempt to profit from the efforts of the thing of value (here that is bitcoin) by either making it seems that you are similar to the thing of value, or that the thing of value has various defects that your shitcoin may well fix or address.


That happens too, and they likely are ONLY damaging themselves because they ended up getting clouded by bad experiences, and then falsely thinking that bitcoin is sufficiently similar (in their head) that they fail/refuse to either research into it or to invest into it.

psychologically it does make sense, just like it makes sense that some folks who sold too much of their bitcoin too soon, and then they are waiting for the BTC price to drop (and the BTC price does not end up dropping to their preference and/or expectations), then those people frequently become bitter about bitcoin largely because they had failed/refused to sufficiently understand bitcoin and/or they failed/refused to take a more reasonable and/or prudent investment approach into bitcoin, including that some people (or many people) end up getting screwed by their bitcoin exposure because they fail/refuse to take their own keys into custody (and it is not easy to manage your own bitcoin keys either... so surely it is understandable how some normies end up getting screwed in a variety of ways.. not ONLY because they got involved in shitcoins or they failed to learn about how to hold their own keys and to exercise such self-custody).


Yes... At the risk of being overly dogmatic... If we clarify what we are talking about, then it is not so bad to use some of the words that tend to be thrown around in various misleading and ambiguous ways, and crypto and crypto currencies are not the ONLY vague terms that are thrown around in terms of lacking clarity in regards to talking about bitcoin or some related project.. or maybe sometimes it is not even related bitcoin, but the use of the vague term might cause some people to wrongly presume that the thing being described is somehow related to bitcoin... which sure everything is likely related to bitcoin, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be throwing out vague, meaningless and/or misleading terms when we are talking about bitcoin.


No there is nothing out there stopping BTC from going above $30k soon. .or maybe it won't?  

Who knows?  and how much does it (or should it) matter in terms of short-term?  

How can we know whether bitcoin will go up or that bitcoin will go down in the short term?  I doubt that we know.

Nonetheless, each of us continuously has some personal choices in regards to our own bitcoin stashes.  

Do we have enough bitcoin?  are we already sufficiently prepared for UP?

If not do we, buy more right now?  that is if we have any more money to buy BTC, or do we need to generate money in order to be able to buy more BTC at these prices?  Yes, money does not necessarily grown on trees, and frequently it takes time for normies to generate money through their labor or maybe other ways that they might have available to them.

Another possibility is to wait for a further dip?  that may or may not happen.  

Have we made plans for any possible dips from here?  What are the conditions in which we would buy more BTC and have we set aside money in case the BTC price drops more from here?

If not, are we prepare for up.. or just with the passage of time, regularly revisiting these kinds of questions, to the extent to which we might not already have an ongoing BTC buying plan in place that we are already following and tweaking the plan and the employment of such plan from time to time.


Whoops!!!  I misspoke, because I meant to say forum member, and I accidentally used the term WO member---

WO = is the "Wall Observer" thread, but I did not specifically mean to refer to that thread.. so maybe subconsciously I had written that reference as if I were writing inside of that thread.

Sure, there are some regular participants of the WO thread, who ONLY go to that thread in the forum, and there are some special rules to that thread, including that it is kind of treated as the forum's troll box... which is just a kind of like a "live chat" thread without exactly being that.. because these days, the thread does not receive enough posts to be an actual live troll box, and sure, all of the posts in the thread are kept to the extent that members do not delete their posts.

My first couple of years in the forum, I did not really venture outside of that thread, so my first posts of the forum were in that thread, and I kind of felt as if it was the ONLY thread that I could keep up with... but in the past few years, I have been increasingly going to other forum threads, too.

Anyone can participate in the WO thread. It surely is the forums longest thread, but not all forum members participate in the thread.. and probably any topic can be discussed there, so long as it is not getting into shitcoin pumping.. so it is generally a probitcoin thread. and maybe would be good to have more forum members participating in that thread (as long as they are not trying to pump shitcoins), even though a quite a few of the regular and longer term forum members do periodically go to that thread, even if they might not participate regularly in that thread.  There are some forum members who purposefully stay away from the WO thread, and sometimes will refer to that thread as a kind of cult.. hahahahahahaha.. whatever.. Peeps can believe whatever they like.


What I do is I keep one of my browser tabs opened to the watchlist, and then whenever I come back to the forum after a few hours or after a day or so, I will click refresh on that watch tab, and it will show me all of the lists that I am watching that have had new posts in the past 12 or so hours.  It does not necessarily show all of the new posts, so I will have to click on edit watchlist and then look at all of the threads that I am watching and to go through some of them to see if there had been any posts in that thread since the last time that I read my watchlist threads.

I do tend to put all of the threads that I have posted in on my watchlist and I will sometimes put other threads on my watchlist too because either I want to read them or I might want to post in them some day.. or perhaps refer back to the ones that I am watching.   I do tend to find it a bit easier to find threads that I am interested in that way, and there are ONLY a few kinds of forum threads that I always keep an open tab on my browser 1) WO thread (and maybe one or two other threads that I am wanting to keep active), 2) watchlist thread, 3) any thread that I need to read (or respond to.. such as I am not caught up), 4) my own merits thread (which allows me to keep tabs (updates) on recent merits sent and recent merits received), and 5) I generally keep BPIP open and run the BPIP Chrome/Firefox browser extension (which does have a link to the Ninja page.. which I might click on that Ninja link page from time to time).  

Generally speaking, that's currently my own system of trying to watch various forum threads.


I don't really use the tool specifically, except like I mentioned above, there is a BPIP chrome extension that also includes a Ninja link next to each members name.. and maybe I am using the various resources that are connected to the TryNinja resources from time to time.


You might be correct in many, if not most of your assessments of bitcoin's current price actions EarnOnVictor, yet it seems that you may well be placing too much weight into some of the technical analysis tools that likely fail in terms of their sufficiently/adequately accounting for bitcoin's not being a mature asset class, and in fact fail to sufficiently/adequately account for the various network effects and Metcalfe principles that contribute towards the likely ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures in terms of a kind of exponential s-curve adoption, so hopefully, you EarnOnVictor are sufficiently prepared to include those kinds of exponential s-curve adoption  dynamics into your own preparations, and not becoming overly smug in terms of possible lackenings in your own UPpity preparations (financially and/or psychologically)... even though, sure you might be right that the exponential component might end up playing out in relatively modest ways... perhaps? perhaps?

You speak-eth unclearedly FinePoine0.

You mean last chance to buy bitcoin below $30k?

There are always chances to buy bitcoin, whether you buy it now at $30k, or sometime in the future at $300k or at $3 million or some other price.

Of course, if you buy BTC at some of the higher prices, then you may well end up having to wait longer for your BTC to be in profits, if one of your goals might be to buy low and sell high.. or to just have more options when your BTC are in profits as compared to buying BTC and NOT being in profits.
 

---

Thanks for the invite @AlcoHoDL.

I am going to argue with your haikus.

It be called: "argue with haiku sunday".....in your words:  "#sundaydigesthaikus"


Why not both?


Why not both?


Why not both?  We are likely going to be a bank if we HODL a sufficient number of BTC, and it is up to each of us to decide how much is a sufficient amount of BTC and how much we are going to participate in the economy in which we might be providing liquidity to the market.. or passing down our BTC to relatives who may or may not deserve them in terms of their abilities to preserve and pass down further wealth.., or might we want to die with some of our BTC in order to "give back" to fellow HODLers?


Why not both?  

1 corn is also $28,978, as I type this post.


True dat.


fair enough.


What is that supposed to mean?


Oh?  Ouch!!!!