In my opinion, I don't expected any deep drop in price anymore. That era is gone and soon volume will begin to increase as well as the price.
That's the spirit!!!!
I am glad that you moved away from the earlier doom and gloom in your post, but we know it is good to be prepared for either direction, which surely is a thing that is possible to accomplish.
I am learning and growing and one sign of it is the ability to adjust my views when presented with plausible reasons and evidence.
All within the same post?
That seems to be more appropriately called "wiffle-waffling."
I would not call it "learning and growing.".. but hey.. whatever. You do you.
Sunday musings...
Most people right now:
they don't believe in bitcoin
Well, more for me, then
#haiku
It does seem like the market is getting a little exhausted. I think the folks who got in at the bottom have likely all sold now. I’m not sure where the increased selling is coming from that’s holding the price down still. I’m not sure how much longer this will continue, but I definitely don’t expect it to remain a trend after April of next year due to the halving.
That would be a long time to stay in the "don't wake me up" zone of perhaps $25k to $35k.... which more specifically would be an additional 8 months... and we have already been here nearly 5 months,. .. I am not buying it. 13 months? Not buying it. Not buying it.
In udder wurdz, the odds don't seem to be very strong for such a scenario of continuing to stay in this "don't wake me up" zone for a total of 13-ish months... what are we going to say? less than 15% odds for such a scenario to play out?
in udder wurdz, why give such a minority scenario so much attention?
Maybe I got those odds wrong? Perhaps? Almost anything is possible.
I think the current market condition is more of a game of psychology and require same to understand. Bitcoin broke structure to the upside around $29,555 zone, with huge buy momentum. This mean the market is a buyer market with protective stop around $28,539. So, the retracement is to make people who got it right doubt their decision and to accumulate more orders before we see the rally that will take prize first to around $33,000 as first target, thereafter other higher prices will follow.
Those who already got in earlier are lucky as we will see good upside moves very soon ceteris paribus.
But what do your proclamations mean?
Are we soon
tm getting out of the "don't wake me up zone," or not?
Very... not... happy... fuuuuccckkkk
King daddy is doing this, just for you, bawb.
I am not sure why, but I do know that shit does happen.
I might be guilty of what LL seems to be criticizing.
I recall that around November / December 2022, the 200-week moving average was ONLY moving up around $10 per day.
So if a hypothetical person in a similar position to uie-pooie (or to your previous hypothetical person) were to have 20 bitcoin, then in November/December 2022, the value of that person's BTC portfolio would have had been going up right around $200 per day.
So now that the 200-week moving average is going up right close to $16 per day, so conditions have improved for that hypothetical person who may well be still holding 20 BTC, and currently such person is getting right around $320 per day increased value from those 20 BTC.
Let's say that such hypothetical person spends around 100 days (a bit more than 3 months without cashing out any BTC, and perhaps even acquiring more BTC (and maybe we get up to 21 BTC at some point?)), and even if the size of the BTC holdings largely stays the same at 20-ish BTC, by not cashing out any of those BTC, we have just built up around $32k in extra value - a further cushion upon which we could draw without depleting the value of our BTC holdings, if we were to want to exercise such an option which comes merely from BTC value appreciation that is based upon the rate of the 200-week moving average going up at a higher pace than it had in the past.. but also its base is continuing to build and build and build, too.
Remember March 2020 when BTC prices dipped below the 200-week moving average? The BTC price went down to $3,850-ish, and the 200-week moving average was ONLY around $5,488-ish.. and it was moving up at a slower pace, too.. like only a dollar or two per day.
It just seems kind of fascinating to me, including that the value continues to go up at an increasing pace and it seems to be a kind of compounding upon itself, and still the newbies are likely to continue to have painful years in terms of their acquiring BTC and getting their BTC holdings into profits, but at the same time, for those who have been in BTC for a decently long time, it remains ongoingly interesting to lively witness how the theories seem to be playing out in practice and showing in the indicators.
And, by the way, how difficult do you believe that it would be for the PTB or anyone else.. a bitcoin naysayer, a anti-bitcoin whale, to cause the 200-week moving average to discontinue moving up?.. sure they might slow it down.. perhaps? perhaps? But, I am getting the sense that the 200-week moving average is going to continue to compound upon itself and the substantive rate upon which it moves up is going to get greater and greater and greater (even if the percentage might not exactly be increasing.. the percentage is probably like to slope downwardly... but still.. it is still an exciting phenomena, even for people who might not have as many BTC.. but surely better for those who have BTC than for those who either are low coiners or who do not have any BTC)
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