Introspection: I am starting to sound very much like what I felt towards Bitcoin in March, 2013, as it crossed its all-time-high of $32 and relentlessly took new ground.

What foolishness to think that BTC could reach $2,000! The assurance of this possibility led me to buy them and now I have this castle  

The part of bitching was not serious. I attempted to point to the fact that in USD terms, the current price of Monero is only twice what it was when the coin started trading and some of the current devs had not even heard about it. So that it is probably a good time to buy now, as certainly most of the week-old projects have already died by this age, and since XMR has not, the risks and uncertainties are now lower.


Here I am being totally serious. My 17-year successful online investing career suggests that this kind of opportunities are best tackled with a Venture Capital approach to wealth management (as described in enough detail in the post where the above quote is). In a prior post just 2 pages ago in the same thread, I presented a framework for the EV scenario analysis, including the probability calculation of how likely it is to reach each of the figures above, including that most likely none of them is ever reached. This leaves the possibility that some of them may be reached.

Also my intention was to make the reader realize, indeed, have an epiphany, that if crypto would ever become the dominant monetary system of the world (which is a commonly held belief among many respected cryptopeople, and has to be, since denying it would mean to hold the belief that crypto does not have any chance ever to become dominant), the market cap of the #1 coin has to rise to trillions of dollars at minimum, lest they could not act as the dominant money due to the lack of liquidity.

Unless you completely disregard the possibility of crypto changing the monetary paradigm, or the possibility for XMR to be the #1 crypto, the table above makes complete sense.
 
Note: I am not saying it is likely that you will need to sell your XMR at $200,000, ever. It does not need to be likely to be a +EV. Even if the chance for that happening were 1 in 100,000 (which is a low chance, the probability that a young person dies by accident is much higher per month), it still makes it worthwhile to buy, if Expected Value is what you are after.

A lecture in math & logic is always worth giving. How I wish I would have had access to this information when I was young  


Edited: only 17 years of my investing career is online.

What is this bitching about a low price?  Monero is almost a double since its inception less than a year ago!

Since when has 100%/year been a bad return on investment!!

 

Hi guys. I need a logo for Crypto Kingdom the game, and it should also symbolize CKG, the gold asset central in the game. ~0.5 BTC bounty is possible, or more if it's slick and professional.

Monero guys, help me. I cannot even define what constitutes a "logo" really.  

It is so easy that I am crying to make it accessible for you  


- Buy XMR now at $0.35. Most people can set aside $1,000 so that'll be 3,000 XMR, a rather easy buy even in the illiquid exchange.

- Write it off. Don't care about what you could have bought with it. Work overtime to recoup the money if you must, or skip a trip, to make it emotionally OK that you have given the money away.

- Do some productive stuff, don't follow XMR unless you care about the nascent payment network and services in alpha stage.

- Wait, until it hits $2 (not that hard, we were doing it for months last summer; the ath = $5), if the day arrives, sell 500 XMR and get back 100% of your original investment. If anything, now you should be totally ok to just wait where it goes.

- Continue your life.

- Sell 500 XMR every time it goes up 10x from the previous sale. This way the schedule is:

500 XMR @ $2
500 XMR @ $20
500 XMR @ $200
500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)
500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)
500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.

$200,000 * 18 million coins = $3,600 billion, still <1% of the current total in USD-denominated assets, so as such, not even a win for crypto but a good start


ADD: Oh forgot to mention: never, EVER:

- sell at a loss
- deviate from the plan in any other way.

Rothschild-led banking has never financed war and terror...

If you subscribe to buy low-sell high speculation investment paradigm, it makes sense to flip the position on-off, provided that you are sufficiently smarter than the market.

If you are a believer, skipping some of the downward moves increases your position when you buy back more with no additional cash.

If you are not a believer, going in only in the times of upward momentum and out all the rest of the time, you capture 20-50% of the upside and hold your capital at risk perhaps 5-10% of the time, a good tradeoff.


BUT...

If you subscribe to the Venture Capital investment paradigm, you just take the position and don't speculate with it. You have a predetermined exit point (for a liquid asset, an exit plan that might have multiple sales) and then you just wait whether it is reached or (typically) not, and even the latter is OK. All money invested is treated as non-recoverable.

This has the advantage that you don't cut your gains. Of course the losses run 100% as well but the losses are capped to 100% while the gains are capped only at the maximum potential of the investment, which in XMR's case is really much above the current value.

- Right now, the fully mined market cap of XMR is 7 million USD
- Of BTC, it's (approx) 7,000 million USD
- Of gold, -..- 7,000,000 million USD.

If XMR gains the same position that BTC has now (without regard to what happens to BTC), we are talking about 100,000% return.

The value of gold is a bit high, after all it is higher than that of any company, but it cannot be ruled out. In fact, if it is not reached, the crypto revolution has failed to liberate mankind. So unless you are 100.000000% sure that crypto will never make it, you also cannot rule out the potential of XMR achieving a 100,000,000% return.

"It might make sense to buy some, just in case it takes off" -Satoshi (paraphrased)
 

Because our humble gold has raised so much interest in the distant kingdom of Polonia, we are bound to make the following ANNouncement.

Please read it and get back to me with suggestions. I am not an expert in making altcoin ANN A really long time it took to write, so be merciful..

The said company bought 2% of the world's aboveground silver in 1997. As they suddenly wanted delivery (to get the silver, not only a contract-for-difference), silver price rose 70% which is visible in the chart even now with the sellers scrambling to find the stuff to deliver. 2% is a lot. (Rumor says he never got all of it though, it's like the CB gold, too valuable to be trusted to the central bank vault.)

If that happens in physical markets, why are we surprised that a sudden new demand for 2% of the XMR (~140,000 XMR == 50k USD) would create a similar price shock in digital markets? It is pretty obvious that this is exactly what will happen.

Hello guys!

I took an hour to read the thread from beginning to end, as I was thinking what platform to use as the high-quality high-SNR medium of talking about Monero.

It was funny to find that I've been preaching essentially the same things ever since the beginning, with of course more information coming and changing the tone of voice and focus to different things.

Just today, I made the appearance to the Polo trollbox as HM_The_King (a tribute to my character in Crypto Kingdom) and told that the failure of Monero is in my estimation 75% certain and significant gain happens at 15% probability (10% being a wash) in 5 years' timeframe. And that due to these numbers, XMR is the best investment I have ever encountered in my life.

My thinking has not changed, this aspect is visible in my earlier writings, just more pronounced in the more recent ones. I think it is especially important to open this up when promoting XMR as investment, because:

- In the longer term, people who have no concept of the VC investment strategy, end up blaming you if the investment goes bust (and it's depressing to be blamed most of the time, since most of these investments do go bust - 70% is a typical VC total_loss rate). Yet they attribute all gains to their own foresight.

- In the shorter term, even if you can coerce somebody to buy, chances are that he is clueless about what the value is, and sells way too early, no matter at a profit or at a loss. Professional Venture Capitalists never sell prematurely. They only EXIT, which is defined as selling the investment at its full and realized value. They take the risk of variance in returns, and get rewarded handsomely. So should you.

Not everyone in the market is a speculator. And if you now try to sell 38k, the price will go to 0.00128.

The rise looks strong, but can be shattered easily. Just as quite small buys also make big moves.

That is the plan, to give the opportunity to buy first to the people who know about Monero, and when the price is higher and there is more liquidity, then activate the wealthy guys.

- Clinical Psychological Problems that disable you (such people cannot work, and are not put to jail even if they commit crimes)

- Personality traits that have a diagnosis because they sometimes have episodes that can even threaten your life (bipolar 5% of people),

- Diagnoses that are developed in the recent times solely as means of oppressing free-thinking people ( ODD)

Only the primest of all threads are moved from speculation to Off Topic. My original public diary was moved there eventually. The current one still resides in speculation after 300+ pages.

You have to try harder.  

1. A new website is out.

2. Devteam is motivated, hard-working and doing important techie stuff.

Is this actually happening? I know it was attempted when the downtrend started with the BCX "exploit" etc, but everybody involved lost his shirt, once again proving that teaming up for manipulation a free market is a -EV concept.

Originally it was the order of reaching the dan level. So ArticMine would be above me. But since I have more crates of diamonds, and same dan, it looks a bit funny and perhaps I should be listed first. That's what I would do (it matters only in the high levels that were not thought to be much used). Your call.

In June-2014, the value of new emission (daily emission * daily price) was $1.8 million. In January-2015, it was $0.18 million. The 90% reduction in emission in dollar terms means that the rising buying interest will directly affect the price because the emission cannot absorb it.

The highest day of emission, 2014-06-21, produced more coins by USD value than the entire February-2015 so far has done.

Chart is in USD per day.

The value of 1 XMR has come down about 90% from what was the average last summer. Meanwhile, the development is still going on with a battle-hardened team while scamcoin devs have abandoned their coins.

Chart is in USD/XMR.



It is mathematically an optimal time to invest now, because the total failure scenario is less likely than before, and the odds for a positive price development in the short-medium term are better than before.

The long term is probably about the same, but comes at 10% the cost.

My additional donation of 5,000 XMR is not yet counted (ask David).

And ArticMine's dans are wrong. A higher dan is every time the total amount reaches a figure starting with 1, 2 or 5; so it is logarithmic approximately base 2.