[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

This is my follow up on the TA for the Monero bear market. It is starting to look like a textbook case of a "failed" bear market with a truncated 5th wave and breakout out of a wedge on strong volume. This is actually a rare Elliot Wave pattern. The truncated fifth wave has all the normal sub wave but either does not extend past the 3rd wave or only barely extends past the 3rd wave. In this case an over lap between the 4th and 1st sub waves is allowed because of the triangle / wedge formation. It can be a very difficult pattern to trade because one can relabel the truncated 5th wave and 4th wave into an extended 4th wave bear market correction. http://ewminteractive.com/elliott-wave-patterns/ The indication here is for a significant chance of a sharp upward move.


Disclaimer: I may hold a position in XMR (Monero), XBT (Bitcoin) and / or NMC (Namecoin). This should not be construed as investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in crypto currencies should consult their investment, legal and tax advisers. Investment in XMR or other crypto currencies may lead to a complete loss of funds.

[1714906151]

1714906151

[1714906151]

1714906151

[cAPSLOCK]

But monero is so thinly traded...  Your analysis looks good, but it's too easy for even a single actor to make this current market happen.

[Hueristic]

This is my follow up on the TA for the Monero bear market. It is starting to look like a textbook case of a "failed" bear market with a truncated 5th wave and breakout out of a wedge on strong volume. This is actually a rare Elliot Wave pattern. The truncated fifth wave has all the normal sub wave but either does not extend past the 3rd wave or only barely extends past the 3rd wave. In this case an over lap between the 4th and 1st sub waves is allowed because of the triangle / wedge formation. It can be a very difficult pattern to trade because one can relabel the truncated 5th wave and 4th wave into an extended 4th wave bear market correction. http://ewminteractive.com/elliott-wave-patterns/ The indication here is for a significant chance of a sharp upward move.


Disclaimer: I may hold a position in XMR (Monero), XBT (Bitcoin) and / or NMC (Namecoin). This should not be construed as investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in crypto currencies should consult their investment, legal and tax advisers. Investment in XMR or other crypto currencies may lead to a complete loss of funds.

I really like ready your analysis's but I have no clue what your saying most of the time.

[jehst]

Looks like XMR formed a triple top at around .00162. That's usually pretty bearish and indicates a reversal of an uptrend.

Again, talking about chart patterns when those three tops could be one or two people seems silly.

[ArticMine]

But monero is so thinly traded...  Your analysis looks good, but it's too easy for even a single actor to make this current market happen.

This is a valid point; however there is the assumption that the large actors will act rationally. Even in large liquid markets a single actor can move the market. Consider for example Warren Buffet suddenly dumping the 9.1% stake in Coca Cola held by Berkshire Hathaway or Bill Gates suddenly dumping his share in Microsoft. In addition XMR has very high liquidity in proportion to its size. A sort by volume in http://coinmarketcap.com/all/ currently places XMR in 5th place overall. It is not like doing Elliot Wave analysis on BCN for example.

Edit: The case for Technical Analysis on thinly traded crypto currencies has been made before. For example by s3052 in October 2010 for Bitcoin. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0. Bitcoin in October 2010 was smaller in capitalization and trading volume than Monero is today.

[razen489]

Monero price looking healthy https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
in time to compete with DRK in terms of gains

[Twipple]

Monero price looking healthy https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
in time to compete with DRK in terms of gains

DRK had a crazy rise in 2 weeks of time. Yes we need a similar trend with Monero

[rpietila]

But monero is so thinly traded...  Your analysis looks good, but it's too easy for even a single actor to make this current market happen.

This is a valid point; however there is the assumption that the large actors will act rationally. Even in large liquid markets a single actor can move the market. Consider for example Warren Buffet suddenly dumping the 9.1% stake in Coca Cola held by Berkshire Hathaway

The said company bought 2% of the world's aboveground silver in 1997. As they suddenly wanted delivery (to get the silver, not only a contract-for-difference), silver price rose 70% which is visible in the chart even now with the sellers scrambling to find the stuff to deliver. 2% is a lot. (Rumor says he never got all of it though, it's like the CB gold, too valuable to be trusted to the central bank vault.)

If that happens in physical markets, why are we surprised that a sudden new demand for 2% of the XMR (~140,000 XMR == 50k USD) would create a similar price shock in digital markets? It is pretty obvious that this is exactly what will happen.

[nioc]

So what's the goal for the latest price rise?

Don't know and don't care as my speculation is almost entirely long term.  When I trade it's on the variations of the down swings so if I can't sell what I bought I end up with more Monero😀😀😀

[dreamspark]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

[TrueCryptonaire]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

[Wexlike]

Not sure if this is the top. I think +180k is possible.

[nakaone]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.

if this is the case now - I do not know

[jehst]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

Everyone has his or her cost-basis. As I only began buying in the winter of 2014, my cost-basis is quite low, and I don't mind buying around it if there's sufficient volume.

[rpietila]

If you subscribe to buy low-sell high speculation investment paradigm, it makes sense to flip the position on-off, provided that you are sufficiently smarter than the market.

If you are a believer, skipping some of the downward moves increases your position when you buy back more with no additional cash.

If you are not a believer, going in only in the times of upward momentum and out all the rest of the time, you capture 20-50% of the upside and hold your capital at risk perhaps 5-10% of the time, a good tradeoff.


BUT...

If you subscribe to the Venture Capital investment paradigm, you just take the position and don't speculate with it. You have a predetermined exit point (for a liquid asset, an exit plan that might have multiple sales) and then you just wait whether it is reached or (typically) not, and even the latter is OK. All money invested is treated as non-recoverable.

This has the advantage that you don't cut your gains. Of course the losses run 100% as well but the losses are capped to 100% while the gains are capped only at the maximum potential of the investment, which in XMR's case is really much above the current value.

- Right now, the fully mined market cap of XMR is 7 million USD
- Of BTC, it's (approx) 7,000 million USD
- Of gold, -..- 7,000,000 million USD.

If XMR gains the same position that BTC has now (without regard to what happens to BTC), we are talking about 100,000% return.

The value of gold is a bit high, after all it is higher than that of any company, but it cannot be ruled out. In fact, if it is not reached, the crypto revolution has failed to liberate mankind. So unless you are 100.000000% sure that crypto will never make it, you also cannot rule out the potential of XMR achieving a 100,000,000% return.

"It might make sense to buy some, just in case it takes off" -Satoshi (paraphrased)
 

[rpietila]

It is so easy that I am crying to make it accessible for you  


- Buy XMR now at $0.35. Most people can set aside $1,000 so that'll be 3,000 XMR, a rather easy buy even in the illiquid exchange.

- Write it off. Don't care about what you could have bought with it. Work overtime to recoup the money if you must, or skip a trip, to make it emotionally OK that you have given the money away.

- Do some productive stuff, don't follow XMR unless you care about the nascent payment network and services in alpha stage.

- Wait, until it hits $2 (not that hard, we were doing it for months last summer; the ath = $5), if the day arrives, sell 500 XMR and get back 100% of your original investment. If anything, now you should be totally ok to just wait where it goes.

- Continue your life.

- Sell 500 XMR every time it goes up 10x from the previous sale. This way the schedule is:

500 XMR @ $2
500 XMR @ $20
500 XMR @ $200
500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)
500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)
500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.

$200,000 * 18 million coins = $3,600 billion, still <1% of the current total in USD-denominated assets, so as such, not even a win for crypto but a good start


ADD: Oh forgot to mention: never, EVER:

- sell at a loss
- deviate from the plan in any other way.

[TrueCryptonaire]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.

if this is the case now - I do not know

The time will tell.
I still have my Moneros locked in a safe. 

However I am still concerned the high emission which makes high prices impossible these days.

[smooth]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.

if this is the case now - I do not know

The time will tell.
I still have my Moneros locked in a safe. 

However I am still concerned the high emission which makes high prices impossible these days.

That depends a lot on what you mean by high. Right now we are at about 5000 USD per day or 150K per month. Is there enough money flying around investing in cryptocurrencies to support that? Yes, and far more. Will that amount or more continue to flow into XMR? Very hard to say.

[rpietila]

What is this bitching about a low price?  Monero is almost a double since its inception less than a year ago!

Since when has 100%/year been a bad return on investment!!

 

[UnicornFarts]

The average price per XMR is much higher than .0075.  If price had gone from .0075 -> .015 now there wouldn't be bitching.

To go from .0075 to .04 to .015 and the avg price per is probably .025.   The nthere's gonna be bitching.  The average is a loss (vs a gain) even tho the price is the same.