[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jehst]

New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

r. pietila will begin buying on behalf of clients this week. substantial amounts of coins will be bought. the price is going to rise.

Here the intentions are opened up a bit more in detail.

It is unlikely that new investors are yet buying, they typically come later. My aim is to get the ones who already know, on board NOW before my big clients raise the price. This will be much better for the community. Otherwise we just have a lot of bitter ex-owners of XMR looking at their empty wallets wondering what hit them.

Well, I think it's likely that Ripple's core supporters did something similar a few months ago. And it worked quite well.

[1715633543]

1715633543

[rpietila]

The value of 1 XMR has come down about 90% from what was the average last summer. Meanwhile, the development is still going on with a battle-hardened team while scamcoin devs have abandoned their coins.

Chart is in USD/XMR.



It is mathematically an optimal time to invest now, because the total failure scenario is less likely than before, and the odds for a positive price development in the short-medium term are better than before.

The long term is probably about the same, but comes at 10% the cost.

[rpietila]

In June-2014, the value of new emission (daily emission * daily price) was $1.8 million. In January-2015, it was $0.18 million. The 90% reduction in emission in dollar terms means that the rising buying interest will directly affect the price because the emission cannot absorb it.

The highest day of emission, 2014-06-21, produced more coins by USD value than the entire February-2015 so far has done.

Chart is in USD per day.

[pinky]

In June-2014, the value of new emission (daily emission * daily price) was $1.8 million. In January-2015, it was $0.18 million. The 90% reduction in emission in dollar terms means that the rising buying interest will directly affect the price because the emission cannot absorb it.

The highest day of emission, 2014-06-21, produced more coins by USD value than the entire February-2015 so far has done.

Chart is in USD per day.

Great chart.

Pretty much we are at the rock bottom. If anybody is thinking about owning XMR now is the best time considering multiple factors and R:R ratio.
Soon there will be 1 year anniversary and XMR is still not dead, you can't say this for majority of other coins which had much greater publicity and yet failed miserably.

[GreekBitcoin]

Everybody is invited to prove me wrong in the field. To fire a bullet, enter any amount in the box and click SELL. That'll teach me  

Someone seems to have accepted the challenge and dumped 30k-40k XMR 

[dEBRUYNE]

The break of the long downtrend:



Note: this is drawn from the 0.01 top, if you drew it from 0.0051 it broke as well.

[nioc]

Over 33k moneroj bought in 10 minutes.  I wonder   @ 0.00160 now

The HR has also gone up from what it has recently been.

I just received more btc just now, oh well

[saddambitcoin]

I don't think there will be any serious resistance until we reach 0.002-0.003.

Most early XMR adopters are still underwater until that point, and after holding on to their losses for so long, they are not easily shaken.

[smooth]

I don't think there will be any serious resistance until we reach 0.002-0.003.

Most early XMR adopters are still underwater until that point, and after holding on to their losses for so long, they are not easily shaken.

There will likely be some profit takers from the long period of accumulation at <0.0015. Also, increasing price will create resistance from more miner selling (likely in the same sort of price range you suggest). If the price doubles the daily coins mined grows to around 10K USD. We don't know how much capital is actively stacked up trying to get in but 10K/day or 300K/month vs. 5K and 150K could be a very significant difference.

[jehst]

I don't think there will be any serious resistance until we reach 0.002-0.003.

Most early XMR adopters are still underwater until that point, and after holding on to their losses for so long, they are not easily shaken.

There will likely be some profit takers from the long period of accumulation at <0.0015. Also, increasing price will create resistance from more miner selling (likely in the same sort of price range you suggest). If the price doubles the daily coins mined grows to around 10K USD. We don't know how much capital is actively stacked up trying to get in but 10K/day or 300K/month vs. 5K and 150K could be a very significant difference.

Even now, sustaining the price single-handedly would take quite a bit of capital:

$240/BTC * .0015  BTC/XMR * 17000 XMR emitted / DAY * 180 DAYS =  1.10 million dollars

Of course, it won't be single-handed. The market is quick to recognize a sustained uptrend, especially when other competitors such as LTC, BTS, DOGE, PPC, NMC remain in brutal bear trends. When one alt turns around, be it Ripple or Darkcoin, all eyes move to it, and the money follows. Others pile on. I think it will take far less than 1.1 million dollars to move the price up several multiples once the greater cryptocurrency community finally sees what XMR is. If you ask them today about privacy-coins, they can only name Darkcoin and Zerocoin, and they don't know the difference between them. They don't know what's going on. But they're going to find out. If there's one thing that speaks, it's money.

[stslimited]

I don't think there will be any serious resistance until we reach 0.002-0.003.

Most early XMR adopters are still underwater until that point, and after holding on to their losses for so long, they are not easily shaken.

There will likely be some profit takers from the long period of accumulation at <0.0015. Also, increasing price will create resistance from more miner selling (likely in the same sort of price range you suggest). If the price doubles the daily coins mined grows to around 10K USD. We don't know how much capital is actively stacked up trying to get in but 10K/day or 300K/month vs. 5K and 150K could be a very significant difference.

Even now, sustaining the price single-handedly would take quite a bit of capital:

$240/BTC * .0015  BTC/XMR * 17000 XMR emitted / DAY * 180 DAYS =  1.10 million dollars

Of course, it won't be single-handed. The market is quick to recognize a sustained uptrend, especially when other competitors such as LTC, BTS, DOGE, PPC, NMC remain in brutal bear trends. When one alt turns around, be it Ripple or Darkcoin, all eyes move to it, and the money follows. Others pile on. I think it will take far less than 1.1 million dollars to move the price up several multiples once the greater cryptocurrency community finally sees what XMR is. If you ask them today about privacy-coins, they can only name Darkcoin and Zerocoin, and they don't know the difference between them. They don't know what's going on. But they're going to find out. If there's one thing that speaks, it's money.

but Monero will need the added utility by that point in time to keep people in it.

for all these newcomers, if they ever come, the blockchain will still be in memory, mymonero.com will still need plenty of explaining to people and bounce a bunch of potential users

[0nlyBTC]

So what's the goal for the latest price rise?

[lyth0s]

Last Price
0.00161004

What is going on here? Is Risto already buying? Are people stoked about http://xmr.to ? Or are people buying before Risto's clients do?

[rpietila]

Or are people buying before Risto's clients do?

That is the plan, to give the opportunity to buy first to the people who know about Monero, and when the price is higher and there is more liquidity, then activate the wealthy guys.

[lyth0s]

Or are people buying before Risto's clients do?

That is the plan, to give the opportunity to buy first to the people who know about Monero, and when the price is higher and there is more liquidity, then activate the wealthy guys.

Gotcha. It's interesting what the words of a rich man can do to the market Out of curiosity what wallet do you guys use? I've been using the full bitmonerod wallet. Is there any reliable open-source good alternative for Windows?

[lyth0s]

Someone dumped 38,000 monero around 0.0014, they have to be shitting bricks right now.

[0nlyBTC]

Or are people buying before Risto's clients do?

That is the plan, to give the opportunity to buy first to the people who know about Monero, and when the price is higher and there is more liquidity, then activate the wealthy guys.

Well I am glad I put entire paycheck to XMR a month ago. I hope XMR is going places.

[rpietila]

Someone dumped 38,000 monero around 0.0014, they have to be shitting bricks right now.

Not everyone in the market is a speculator. And if you now try to sell 38k, the price will go to 0.00128.

The rise looks strong, but can be shattered easily. Just as quite small buys also make big moves.

[cAPSLOCK]

Someone dumped 38,000 monero around 0.0014, they have to be shitting bricks right now.

I don't know about that.  There is a good chance this was a profitable exit for a speculator.  25% gains are nothing to scoff at.  Also, this trader might keep a portion of Monero as longterm investment, but have no argument against realizing a 25% gain on speculative buys made made over the last month or so.

[smooth]

Or are people buying before Risto's clients do?

That is the plan, to give the opportunity to buy first to the people who know about Monero, and when the price is higher and there is more liquidity, then activate the wealthy guys.

Gotcha. It's interesting what the words of a rich man can do to the market Out of curiosity what wallet do you guys use? I've been using the full bitmonerod wallet. Is there any reliable open-source good alternative for Windows?

LightWallet is open source (python) for Windows. It uses the either the same bitmonerod full node or a remote node but adds a GUI.

More info on wallets here: https://xmrmonero.com/news/choose-your-wallet