I foresee a race to the bottom where most countries try to debase, debauch and devalue their own currency faster than other countries until somebody cracks. What i am saying is that China shows signs of cracking. Japan has already begun the process of cracking, because they have a 30 year head start in the process.
Since 2008 *everyone* has been devaluing their currency. But its not competitive devaluation, it's co-operative devaluation, an open conspiracy of central banks. By co-ordination they avoid excessive relative slippage, which avoids most of the political problems with inflating away debt -- the rest are solved by simply funneling money to the principal debtors. The ECB, because of its nominal mandate, has a really hard time monetizing debt on its own, but it can accomplish this through the back door by coordinated easing. I don't know what is the quid pro quo they are giving to the U.S., but I'm sure the tab will come due sooner or later. This kinda, sorta works as long as all the majors are co-operating. It has been brutal for emerging markets, and it may fall apart if one of the majors defects badly, but it does kick the can another lap down the road. Yeah.. I never thought about it like that... the reason no one of these big countries get in trouble is that they are doing this together.. and the people of each and all of the countries are screwed and the small countries are screwed even more. So even if we can buy a bitcoin for $10K, the $10K is not going to be worth too much (if they are doubling the supply of $$ every several years). This all seems to justify that BTC may go up even higher and faster.... I sure hope so b/c floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting.. even though it is better than floating at $420 or $350, which was the case last week. |
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Whys is no one mentioning the obvious bear flag on Houbi. Its literally waving at us.
My prediction for today: Houbi goes up to 3200 and everyone on this forum shouts "MOON MF!!!!!".
Then it drops back down to 2980.
I'm feeling pretty good about this one.
Since you are feeling pretty good about it, we can quote you... he he he .. I am NOT selling.. HODL for me.. but I may buy if the later part of your prediction comes true (otherwise I am kind of bought out at this price range) |
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Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.
Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down. (Still HODLING since $390)
The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side. Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise? You are so right about the importance of volume but I am just not sure that MtGox is a valid benchmark anymore. Peter's theory that they lost most of their coins in the 2011 hack would imply that a lot of their 2012/2013 orderbook depth was, shall we say, "inflated". Inflated only b/c the vast majority of users did NOT know that the BTC was NOT there... Probably, the fact that the BTC was NOT there was only known by a few in management. Accordingly, the behavior of the users would have been the same as if the BTC was there the user's behavior at GOX was mostly affected by Gox restrictions that were placed upon their withdrawals which likely inspired quite a bit less of less confidence in GOX... but the ones that stayed on GOX continued to engage in trading that would have been more or less normal within that concept of believing that the coins were the real deal.. |
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How many people have not heard about Bitcoin? I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is. Only a couple people have even heard about it. One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it. I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech." I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness. But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet. I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.
We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic I think that's what I am saying too. Surely we see quite a bit of attention going into the expansion of bitcoin with increased merchant acceptance and also the spreading of ATMs, but there is also some pull back too, such as Apple making matters difficult and regulations and China FUD and various incidents of BTC being stolen (GOX). So in that regard, we may NOT know that we are more than halfway through the life until after we have past the point of half way. I also see that there is a lot of bitcoin potential, and that is why I have diverted quite a few of my investment funds from other asset classes, such as index stock funds to instead be invested in bitcoin. NONETHELESS, if next year we have a 10X increase - then we can be assured we are NOT half way yet in bitcoin's adoption...... But if we do NOT, then we may need to question whether we har past half way or whether a different model is more applicable to bitcoin. Anyhow, maybe I am just getting a little more concerned about my investment based on this nearly 5 month long downtrend in prices... |
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So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry. In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes. Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin? I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase. Who's to say that we have NOT already reached the half way point of adoption? In the event that bitcoin remains somewhat of a niche and somewhat marginalized by various sabotage attempts, then bitcoin will NOT be able to maintain 10X annual increases. |
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Adam (are you still here  ?), if you don't got ideas for a new poll I suggest something like that : " How many time bitcoin will be banned in China ?" answers may be 4, 5, 6, 7 and so on. You could also formulate it as " How many times China's deadline will be pushed ?" since it's funny how "dead-line" is antinomic in this sentence Note : I may have lost the count so I'm not sure about the '4' answer ! I speculate that Adam has abandoned this thread until either 4/19 or 4/20 - coincidentally at the end of the poll.  |
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three times rejected from critical support.
No way it will hold, 6h looking bad, 2900 will be tested most likely I will save some fiat, if that 2900 happens... but I am NOT selling at this point. |
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an equally good question, how many bitcoins are left on the exchanges?
large players that are accumulating off exchanges due to broken trust could be holding a lot of coins right now. there may be a surprise shortage for short bears.
Personally, I believe the question of quantity of fiat on the exchanges is more important than the question of the quantity of bitcoin on the exchanges. One of the advantages of bitcoin (its ease of ability to be moved without cost and quickly) is also its curse in terms of artificially pushing prices downward. In this regard, bitcoins can easily be moved onto exchanges within hours notice... or even less than an hour sometimes. Even if these large carriers of bitcoin are able to acquire their bitcoin off of exchanges, it may take a little while for those off exchange bitcoin acquisitions to hit the exchanges (maybe hitting the exchanges more as trickles rather than surges). Any attempts to buy thousands of bitcoins on exchanges is NOT going to go unnoticed, except during high volume periods - unless the purchases are split up into fairly small quantities. From my understanding we do NOT really seem to know the quantity of fiat on exchanges in the sidelines, and we realize that there is a bit of a disincentive in keeping very much fiat on the exchanges (post mt gx and other negative exchange rumors) |
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I think we can all agree, things will only get better from here.
LOL.. for a minute their I thought you were serious. You're right though, it's looking so bearish it's frightening. Bearish? I think the market is pretty bullish atm, could you elaborate on why it is bearish atm? Yeah... we may NOT see $400s again... looks like BTC could be revving up for a take off - just a matter about how long it is going to take before it begins to edge up on a more permanent basis... and maybe even float into the $750-$850 range. that would be bullish |
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Bye bye, my time in here is done. PBOC and J.P. Morgan finally paid the rest of the agreed salary. See you all after the top of the next bubble.  Will you be using the same user name or a different one (when you come back, that is)? |
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where is Adam BTW ? I didn't seem him around for days now.
I've been thinking the same. Where is the OP?He told us he was going to be frozen or cryogenized, and post a pic of a penguin inside a ice-cube. You can find that post, like 3days ago, during the 350$ dip. Hopefully that works out o.k. for him, and he does NOT come back all retarded... I dont really trust cryogenics |
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where is Adam BTW ? I didn't seem him around for days now.
I've been thinking the same. Where is the OP? |
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I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.
I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped. told you guys this is not safe to trade, we will be going up on waves till the end of this month then the price will be somehow stable for some time (couple of weeks). and good morning  Stable $750 to $850 .. .would be good.. but I think that we have to stay between $600 and $700 for a little while before going to the next level.. my current thinking.... |
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Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.
Exactly the way I feel. My last short position failed to fill at 527, even though that was exactly the high. That last runup on Houbi to the resistance line was on very very low volume compared the other runups. Maybe we have more in the tank. Maybe we go to the exponential trendline. But this doesn't feel like a bottom to me. This feels like a bunch of traders riding the wave on an appearance of a bottom. I don't think we just break down to new intermediate lows (340) and then recover on low volume. I'm betting I make a profit on this trade. If not and it goes to 600+ then I'll just take the hit. Maybe by Thursday, we will be $620? |
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You can't have winners without losers...
Only true in a zero-sum game. More generally, you can't have competition without relative losers. Correct. My money is still sitting in my trading account, so I am only a relative loser. Considering my initial buy-in price I am still doing rather well. Trading is not a zero sum game. Both parties feel they are better off or the trade would not take place. I agree with you here. However, you said the exact opposite a few times when you were being the cocky rendition of yourself.... I personally prefer the more reasonable version... but I am just one person... It only appears I said the exact opposite. The confusion is understandable. Currency speculating is a zero sum game. One trader thinks the price will go up, one thinks the price will go down, and the person who wins gains the exact amount the other trader loses (minus trading fee). Trading in general is positive sum because we traders have different end goals. I specifically said I was hedging and that due to my cold storage coins I am in a net long position even though I sold my trading stash to lock in profits. The benefit for me is that I can endure the swings of the market for far longer now without relying on day trading profits. The benefit for the other trader is obvious, unless the market goes lower than his buy-in price and he sells then. I stick with my earlier post... Nonetheless, I agree with you about trading bringing value to both parties - even though some traders will lock in losses when they buy high and sell low.. However, when the market is going up, then most people should profit... It is more difficult to lose money when the market is going up.. as long as the investor has patience. |
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The volume of this pump is very similar to March 3. The difference is that it is spread over two days instead of one. I won't trust this as a true recovery unless there is a successful retest of $340 support on higher volume. Every dollar spent on the exchange is a dollar not used to put a floor on the price in the event of another stampede for the exits.
You kids run and play. I guess it falls to me to be the responsible adult in the room. A roll I am unused to. Hopefully I will not be needed.
fine words, sir. I disagree. The pump of March 3 was one single player with a few millions. This one is a lot of tiny little buys on Chinese markets that keep on pressing from the bottom up, inspiring confidence in the western markets and causing the leveraged shorts to explode in a fireworks show. Is this concerted? I don't think so. I think we simply have a new massive herd of Chinese gamblers who are entering the speculation game by buying bitcoins and altcoins. You said yourself we are all China's bitch. Here's something that just popped into my head: Whacky conspiracy theory: Price is being manipulated by the PBoC to accumulate a large position for the purpose of adding it to it's gold and foreign currency reserves. The ultimate goal is to make the renminbi a major world currency, possibly the world's reserve currency.evidence for said whacky theory: 1. stochastics are funny. 2. Public airing of pro-bitcoin feature on public television followed by outright hostile words and policy, followed by...uncertainty" evidence against said whacky theory: 1. That's the beauty of conspiracy theories. The lack of evidence merely shows you how deep it goes! discuss. I generally agree with that particular conspiracy theory as a chinese aspiration.. does NOT mean that they will achieve it, but are taking measures to solidify holdings in various assets, including PMs and BTC... b/c they view the dollar as a bad investment. |
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Wow. This battle is epic and made me glad i dumped into that strange 514 wall?  wtf was that guy thinking? what a market. breakout action ... do you go all in or wait for one more pullback? ... we're right on trend right now, might never see this low again is the psychological battleground. I try to buy on the way down and sell on the way up... so as you may be able to tell, I am a little exhausted from buying for about 5 months.. .but I am NOT going to sell anytime soon.. maybe after we get into a more comfortable uptrend.... I may sell a little. However, I agree that you are correct that we may never see this price again.. I just get a little worried to buy while the price is going up.. especially when I had bought so many BTC all the way down the downtrend.. especially starting below $610. |
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China appears to be sleeping so US markets are having trouble trying to rally.. lol
Let China sleep... forever I 've had it with their news and exchanges Niothor: I have read a lot of your comments... and mostly I agree with a lot of what you say. Could you explain the cute bear avatar? What is such a bull like you doing with a bear like that? |
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It seems so recent that all the talk was about BTC gravitating repeatedly towards $666...we need to get back to there  I agree... and that $666 pricepoint felt low at the time... |
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Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.
That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5 million)
I would put it this way: Only about $0.5 million of the daily bitcoins generation enters the market. Of that, the following are interested: 20 G20 countries 50 midsize countries 70 small countries 70 very small countries 500 billionaires 10,000 100-millionaires 1 million 10-millionaires 30 million millionaires 500 large corporations 500,000 midsize corporations 500 million Europeans with <1M net worth 300 million N. Americans -..- 300 million S. Americans -..- 200 million ex-Soviet -..- 1,700 million in Indian peninsula 1,600 million in China 1 billion in other parts of Asia 500 million more in Asia 1 million existing bitcoin investors thinking it is cheap It is mathematically certain that everybody cannot get many bitcoins. The list above included so many entities that it is certain that some of them realize that acting before others is an advantage, like any one reading this has realized. Then they start to want the bitcoins, and as the daily interest exceeds $0.5 million, the price starts to rise. Bitcoin will fail due to its natural scarce nature. It WILL not work: -as mean of transaction -store of value If the technology is so unique and outstanding, the scarce nature Will ultimately destroy it. The value will be zero. Wake up!!!!!!! Seems that you are the one that needs to be woken up.. b/c scarcity is essential to BTC's value.. and Bitcoin is infinitely divisible, as well (even though currently only divided into 100million subparts - Satoshis) |
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