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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26379733 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
chessnut
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April 16, 2014, 06:01:48 AM

We need to open a bear rehabilitation thread.
it's O.K to be a bull!

We're free to be you and me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_26FOHoaC78

but they are riding horses... is that bullish?
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April 16, 2014, 06:03:08 AM

It is with regret that I announce I have gone bull, and have bought back most my coins in phases over the past 3 days. Once the 3D cross happens (which seems inevitable), I am offlining them, and taking a break from trading during the midpoint-consolidations.

That might be an unexpectedly short break.  Time will tell.
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April 16, 2014, 06:06:22 AM

It is with regret that I announce I have gone bull, and have bought back most my coins in phases over the past 3 days. Once the 3D cross happens (which seems inevitable), I am offlining them, and taking a break from trading during the midpoint-consolidations.

That might be an unexpectedly short break.  Time will tell.

I'm still waiting for $590. Unless we break $540-550 on volume and keep going, there may still be time for a pullback.
But I'm becoming more and more bullish. Fingers crossed etc.

Disclosure: I bought some at $517.
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April 16, 2014, 06:06:24 AM

We need to open a bear rehabilitation thread.
it's O.K to be a bull!

We're free to be you and me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_26FOHoaC78

but they are riding horses... is that bullish?

It's horsish, and that's really good news.
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April 16, 2014, 06:08:18 AM

I can see a retrace to $470 and that will be the last gasp saloon for desperate bears to save their skins
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April 16, 2014, 06:08:25 AM

It is with regret that I announce I have gone bull, and have bought back most my coins in phases over the past 3 days. Once the 3D cross happens (which seems inevitable), I am offlining them, and taking a break from trading during the midpoint-consolidations.
So when are we hitting 250 again?
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April 16, 2014, 06:09:00 AM

I believe we've just hit the top.

There was a lot of struggle in that pump
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April 16, 2014, 06:11:21 AM

How do you imagine this adoption taking place? A country just exchanging their fiat, together with their national wealth to bitcoin? So that artificial deficit could be created, with driving the price up 1000000000% and with actually only changing about 2% of total bitcoins to the wealth of that country? And so the rest who own the 98% and who didn't sell, will actually be the new owners of that countries national wealth? Tongue

I am more in awe of the current financial system, where people are supposedly fighting to be integrated to a block, which a) immediately takes your gold reserves and transports them away, never to be seen; b) replaces your non-debt based currency with a debt-based, so that every time you want to obtain medium of exchange or store value, somebody, somewhere has to go deeper in debt; c) typically the one that goes into debt, though, is you; d) the interest of this (fabricated and imaginary) debt is paid to private bankers and does not benefit you; e) you are not in Mundell optimum with this currency and your economy is destroyed by this, among other things.

The adoption is quite easy, anyone can buy bitcoins and trade with them. The state also accumulates. Prices are quoted in an independent banana currency that depreciates against bitcoin. When nobody wants the banana currency any more, its value has gone to zero and it is scrapped, everybody uses bitcoin. Simple things are good.

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you could actually believe things like "a country would be insanely rich if it would adopt bitcoin!!"  Grin

Yes, I don't subscribe at all to the Keynesian theory that countries should be financially managed differently than households or companies.

I have a household, and we are now quite rich because of Bitcoin. I also have a company, which has grown a lot richer because of Bitcoin (the downside is that the company now employs about 10 people, but the cashflow is zero because everybody is so rich and does not need to work). If there is a country, you say that magically it would not be better off??!

No. There is no transition point where black becomes white. What is good for a small company, is good for a large, and for a small country, and a large country. They just have the fallacy that they need to invest a lot to make it worthwhile for them. Why? I was never net invested even a million USD, and now you say that I am so rich that countries adopting Bitcoin would just benefit me, and that this is a reason why they should not invest! Oh, the irony - entire countries sentencing their population to poverty because of envy towards rpietila! They could go and buy 10k bitcoins for any leftover money in their budget and live happily ever after, which is what I am doing. Number of bitcoins is important, not the amount of fiat you paid. Fiat is just a con.

Not that I cared. No country is currently buying bitcoins openly, and bitcoin is doing just fine. When they realize that envying me is not a reason enough to destroy the future of their population, then they buy. Or at least the people there.

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When the currency is strongly tied to fossil fuels, then it keeps relative stability to practicly everything else.

If the policy was actually governed by that, gold would still be your currency. At that time the prices were quite stable. Even after taking the reckless fiat course in 1971, the charts show that priced IN gold, oil has been trading in a tight channel, only occasionally visited below 10 or above 20. This one also shows what a joke fiat's supposed stability is. For more than 100 years(!) in gold dollar, oil price has been trading in channel of 0.50-2 dollars per barrel. After 1971 and "managed dollar", the price periodically readjusts 10 times higher than before, and even the period between readjustments is not stable (since 2000, price range 20-150).

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Bitcoin will never be stable, even with growth. Only thing happens is that the players will get bigger. today we have whales that are battling eachother with manipulation, but in the future we would have megacorporations and countries that would battle eachother with manipulation and attempts to screw with eachothers efficency.

That you cannot develop remedies to this, does not mean that they don't exist. I (for one) am well capable to think about those matters and implement them, but we are in general still in the kindergarten stage, where people debate over whether it is a good deal to buy BTC1,000 with $10,000,000. Hint: with those figures, the next year solves the question effortlessly, 100M I'm not sure.

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No one wants to take responsibility for anything and everyone just want to whine and act like they're powerless.
I agree that this is very annoying.

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Haha, if you buy something with bitcoin, from a merchant that uses BitPay, then you are just converting your BTC to USD at bitpay and not in the exchange before. To this date I have only met one store that accepts bitcoin directly, without the support of bitpay.

To repeat:
- I know guys who don't use fiat at all, many of them are quite rich because it's bitcoin they use
- Personally I use fiat and have it in balance sheets of my company but it is because my business is currency exchange between fiat/btc/gold/silver, where fiat is an input to the production process (plus a responsible hedge against bitcoin failure)
- Value transmit and value storing are different functions for a currency. This enables people who don't care for bitcoin's price, to use it as a remittance mechanism (and hasten its development), and people, who don't care to transact with it before it's mature, to use it as a store of value (and hasten its maturity).
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April 16, 2014, 06:14:58 AM

It is with regret that I announce I have gone bull, and have bought back most my coins in phases over the past 3 days. Once the 3D cross happens (which seems inevitable), I am offlining them, and taking a break from trading during the midpoint-consolidations.

Agree, 3d MACD is about to cross and that alone would push this a lot.

Not sure how long that will last, I don't see that anything changed in last few days that would be worth of trend reversal but Chinese played this perfectly and got me off the guard.
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April 16, 2014, 06:16:41 AM

It is with regret that I announce I have gone bull, and have bought back most my coins in phases over the past 3 days. Once the 3D cross happens (which seems inevitable), I am offlining them, and taking a break from trading during the midpoint-consolidations.
So when are we hitting 250 again?
At this is point that is only possible if a number of exchanges are shut down and this occurs before new exchanges open up.  With the right event occuring, it could cause a spike down the chart so hard that the longer indicators do NOT cross up. At that point I would no longer be bull. I cannot count on this happening though, especially with NY framework in place by July.  

You should know that I am more of a reactive trader than a predictive trader. I make talk about predictions in here in order to socialize but I when I am actually trading, I am mostly reacting to the latest events and what is actually happening on the charts.  Everythign I do is according to formulas involving all charting timeframes and minizing risk by acting in phases. A key to being successful is being able to adapt to changes and those who are stubborn about their positions and their attitudes get punished.
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April 16, 2014, 06:25:29 AM

I could see myself eating my words when Huobi gets shut down tomorrow...

Next news... PBOC warns about enforcement actions and police if banks do not comply with the notice.

But the best thing I can do is follow the charts. I don't have a crystal ball.
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April 16, 2014, 06:28:38 AM

I could see myself eating my words when Huobi gets shut down tomorrow...

BTCChina is going to stay anyway... Smiley
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April 16, 2014, 06:28:58 AM

to pop some bubbles: 3320ish on huobi is the breakout point and would prove the breakout of bearish trend started last year - and thats quite a way to go


*bink*
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April 16, 2014, 06:29:23 AM

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.
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April 16, 2014, 06:32:48 AM


First, where the hell did this myth come from that it is a good thing when a currency is tied to gold.

From numerous members of the Austrian School of economics (Mises, Hayek, Rothbard, etc). Alan Greenspan was also a "goldbug" back when he was an acolyte of Ayn Rand.

The central premise is that Central Bankers cannot know how much liquidity the market needs because they don't have the ability to collect and process the information that millions of local buyers and sellers have. The natural scarcity of gold prevents them from injecting too much liquidity, which causes an unsustainable boom, which causes a bust.

Busts in fact are corrections, times where capital is transferred from incompetent managers to competent managers in order for that capital to be used in more productive ways.

In short: Central Bankers with good intentions screw things up. Central Bankers with bad intentions screw things up. The free market also screws things up, but not as badly as Central Bankers do.

I am even more liberal (in the economic sense) than the goldbugs. I think there should be no legal tender and that the free market should determine what the most liquid commodity is, and we should call that commodity "money".


Thank you for resuming my thoughts. My english is limited and i m getting frustrated. Just want to add that currency was created because gold was not practical. That never was intentions to substitute for gold. When it does, it has always fails very quick. The marker always have the last laugh
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April 16, 2014, 06:36:09 AM

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.
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April 16, 2014, 06:37:56 AM

A 4k buy with maximum slippage right at the end of a wedge. The guy had plenty of time to buy during the wedge and instead chooses to buy when it hurts his wallet the most. Looks like manipulation to me.

There's just something off about this rally. I understood the rally after silk road closed.  I understood the rally after Gox closed. I don't understand balls to the wall in China when The PBoC has not reversed policy or no major exchange has closed. A market that suddenly changes direction without a retest of support and news that amounts to a loophole that may or may not be closed?

To use Alan Greenspan's term, it looks like "irrational exuberance".  Demand that appears this suddenly can disappear just as suddenly. Supply that can disappear suddenly can reappear suddenly. The market is too thinly traded to be trusted.

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April 16, 2014, 06:41:22 AM

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

told you guys this is not safe to trade, we will be going up on waves till the end of this month then the price will be somehow stable for some time (couple of weeks).

and good morning Smiley
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April 16, 2014, 06:43:13 AM

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

I won't lose anything in coins, I sold most around 600 and if this is true reversal I'll make many 200-300 coins from alts investments but I lost 2500$ today as I left some shorts around 480 when I went to bed last night, fought last 15 hours, hedged and what else not, just to throw the towel on the very top at 435  Grin

Few days ago lost 2000$ trying some bot who bought at 430 and sold at 409.

I'm just not good in BTC vs USD, luckily I've done good in alts in last year, otherwise I wouldn't have dollar to show from that period.

It would be salt on my wounds if this shit would get dumped now.
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April 16, 2014, 06:43:27 AM

A 4k buy with maximum slippage right at the end of a wedge. The guy had plenty of time to buy during the wedge and instead chooses to buy when it hurts his wallet the most. Looks like manipulation to me.

There's just something off about this rally. I understood the rally after silk road closed.  I understood the rally after Gox closed. I don't understand balls to the wall in China when The PBoC has not reversed policy or no major exchange has closed. A market that suddenly changes direction without a retest of support and news that amounts to a loophole that may or may not be closed?

To use Alan Greenspan's term, it looks like "irrational exuberance".  Demand that appears this suddenly can disappear just as suddenly. Supply that can disappear suddenly can reappear suddenly. The market is too thinly traded to be trusted.



Put yourself in the shoes of Chinese gov officials.

If you can move a market this much you can profit hand over fist. People are driven by their own self interest. Pile into bitcoin, release clear guidance, make 10's-100's of millions of dollars.

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