Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

You can't have winners without losers...

Only true in a zero-sum game.  More generally, you can't have competition without relative losers.

Correct. My money is still sitting in my trading account, so I am only a relative loser. Considering my initial buy-in price I am still doing rather well. Trading is not a zero sum game. Both parties feel they are better off or the trade would not take place.

I agree with you here.   However, you said the exact opposite a few times when you were being the cocky rendition of yourself.... I personally prefer the more reasonable version... but I am just one person... 

[chessnut]

Pff right now I have to keep on shortin the market ....

Im doing a special deal on shorts right now. buy one, and get one free!

[JayJuanGee]

Goxish behavior spotted.
Pump on your favorite manipulative exchange(Gox, Huobi), dump at the same time on Stamp. Repeat.
This has been seen in the last weeks of Gox.

you must be getting close to the end of your Bitcoin bashing internship? 

[jonoiv]

More stuff  

Chinese website stirring reports that Russia is considering banning bitcoin.  The article was published 1 hour ago .

http://www.wangdaizhijia.com/news-more-10515.html


Google Translation

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&u=http://www.wangdaizhijia.com/news-more-10515.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%25E9%2593%25B6%25E8%25A1%258C%25E7%25A6%2581%25E4%25BB%25A4%25E6%25AF%2594%25E7%2589%25B9%25E5%25B8%2581%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3DvBF%26sa%3DX%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26channel%3Drcs%26biw%3D1366%26bih%3D650%26tbs%3Dqdr:h

[Newfeeling]

DAT 153 BTC DUMP

[wachtwoord]

First, that was nixon that condemned the dollar with deconnecting it from gold.

Nixon only put the final nail in the coffin. Condemning the Dollar had started on 31 January 1934 by Roosevelt.

[JayJuanGee]

You have to love all these butthurt bears in denial

hehehehehe....

I predict that they will stay in denial forever.. even when we are at $10k or above...

However, in this round, they are probably gonna keep suggesting that we are still on a downtrend.. maybe until we get to about $800.. .. which should be reasonably doable in the next few weeks...

[edwardspitz]

That is what I call erratic trading bitcoinaverage.com is down. Look at OKCoin. lol. I did my last round of buys at the top (almost). Jesus what a day  

[JayJuanGee]

you are right, one aspect nevertheless: there could be a successor to bitcoin in its current form ... then it's clear that everyone will jump ship. i think, quite a few of those who have "missed" bitcoin so far think, that they'll simply wait for this new incarnation and hold back their investment.

That would be ill-advised:  Bitcoin is likely to be the best or only way to get into the successor, or at the very least, the best or only way to get into it early on.

Also, cross that bridge if we get there.  for the time being, bitcoin is the cadillac of crypto currencies... (It's just an expression.. well I mean back when cadillac was the shit)

[JayJuanGee]

Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.

That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5 million)

I would put it this way:

Only about $0.5 million of the daily bitcoins generation enters the market. Of that, the following are interested:

20 G20 countries
50 midsize countries
70 small countries
70 very small countries
500 billionaires
10,000 100-millionaires
1 million 10-millionaires
30 million millionaires
500 large corporations
500,000 midsize corporations
500 million Europeans with <1M net worth
300 million N. Americans -..-
300 million S. Americans -..-
200 million ex-Soviet -..-
1,700 million in Indian peninsula
1,600 million in China
1 billion in other parts of Asia
500 million more in Asia
1 million existing bitcoin investors thinking it is cheap

It is mathematically certain that everybody cannot get many bitcoins. The list above included so many entities that it is certain that some of them realize that acting before others is an advantage, like any one reading this has realized. Then they start to want the bitcoins, and as the daily interest exceeds $0.5 million, the price starts to rise.

Bitcoin will fail due to its natural scarce nature.
It WILL not work:
-as mean of transaction
-store of value

If the technology is so unique and outstanding, the scarce nature
Will ultimately destroy it.

The value will be zero.

Wake up!!!!!!!

Seems that you are the one that needs to be woken up.. b/c scarcity is essential to BTC's value.. and Bitcoin is infinitely divisible, as well (even though currently only divided into 100million subparts - Satoshis)

[wachtwoord]

you are right, one aspect nevertheless: there could be a successor to bitcoin in its current form ... then it's clear that everyone will jump ship. i think, quite a few of those who have "missed" bitcoin so far think, that they'll simply wait for this new incarnation and hold back their investment.

That would be ill-advised:  Bitcoin is likely to be the best or only way to get into the successor, or at the very least, the best or only way to get into it early on.

We've been trading shiny rocks and sea shells for thousands of years before crypto currency was discovered and they are going to wait for it's successor? Okay

[chessnut]

I would put it this way:

Only about $0.5 million of the daily bitcoins generation enters the market. Of that, the following are interested:

20 G20 countries
50 midsize countries
70 small countries
70 very small countries
500 billionaires
10,000 100-millionaires
1 million 10-millionaires
30 million millionaires
500 large corporations
500,000 midsize corporations
500 million Europeans with <1M net worth
300 million N. Americans -..-
300 million S. Americans -..-
200 million ex-Soviet -..-
1,700 million in Indian peninsula
1,600 million in China
1 billion in other parts of Asia
500 million more in Asia
1 million existing bitcoin investors thinking it is cheap

It is mathematically certain that everybody cannot get many bitcoins. The list above included so many entities that it is certain that some of them realize that acting before others is an advantage, like any one reading this has realized. Then they start to want the bitcoins, and as the daily interest exceeds $0.5 million, the price starts to rise.

I think Im going to save this and print it out and put it in a frame so that I can see it when I go to bed holding leveraged long Bitcoins 

I thought there were only 12 million millionaires in the world, but I am very wrong. that must be in America alone.
... I heard there are 1500 billionaires in the world, net worth something like 30 trln...... so much money.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

It seems so recent that all the talk was about BTC gravitating repeatedly towards $666...we need to get back to there  

I agree... and that $666  pricepoint felt low at the time...  

[chessnut]

this is trending with exponential growth!

[JayJuanGee]

China appears to be sleeping so US markets are having trouble trying to rally.. lol

Let China sleep... forever
I 've had it with their news and exchanges

Niothor:    I have read a lot of your comments... and mostly I agree with a lot of what you say.

Could you explain the cute bear avatar?

What is such a bull like you doing with a bear like that?

[JayJuanGee]

Wow.  This battle is epic and made me glad i dumped into that strange 514 wall? wtf was that guy thinking?

what a market.

breakout action ... do you go all in or wait for one more pullback? ... we're right on trend right now, might never see this low again is the psychological battleground.

I try to buy on the way down and sell on the way up... so as you may be able to tell, I am a little exhausted from buying for about 5 months.. .but I am NOT going to sell anytime soon.. maybe after we get into a more comfortable uptrend.... I may sell a little.

However, I agree that you are correct that we may never see this price again.. I just get a little worried to buy while the price is going up.. especially when I had bought so many BTC all the way down the downtrend.. especially starting below $610.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

First, that was nixon that condemned the dollar with deconnecting it from gold. He couldn t do otherwise because they had printed so many dollars that they couldn t reimbourse country that wanted to have gold for dollar.

Second, Greenspan was doing what bankers ask from him. that s why they put him here. Bernanke wasn t a greenspan v2! He is one of the people who had the best studied the 1929 crises and the united states have already decided to give a try to free money. Again he did what bankers asked him to do.

Third, ultra liberal doesn t mean to give all power to bankers. It s all about what people choose as a whole. We have to let the invisible hand of the market adjust absurd situations. (4 times more dollar since 2008 is just grotesk)

First, where the hell did this myth come from that it is a good thing when a currency is tied to gold. Gold is an  precious metal with strongly manipulated speculative value, that doesn't have much practical application. It was a good thing when the dollar tied itself more to oil then to gold, because a lot more depends on oil then it depends on gold.

If Greenspan gave the power to the private sector, then it's logical that those who are at the top of the private sector have the the most important vote on things. And every free person could also get to the top if they're smart enough and they work hard enough. This is capitalism, that decides power by fair competition and is about the survival of the fittest.
Most of the weak whiners don't exactly like free competition, because they aren't exactly competative, because they aren't smart enough and they don't want to work hard enough. They just wish that they would get rich by hodling bitcoins, without actually having to do any work and without being smart.
It's very hard to understand on what you meant on Bernanke wanting to try free money.

Ultra-liberal in this context meant less regulations from the public sector and more freedom to the private sector. Would you have wished that the freedom didn't go to those who are educated and run the finance at the private sector, but to every citizen in the country? That every financial decision will be decided by public referendums by people who aren't even capable of electing competent public leaders?!?
Most of the people don't exactly know what they want. They just want more money and power, while not wanting to do any work for it. They demand that they could decide on things while they themselves are not ready to do any work to make decisions of better quality.

[billyjoeallen]

You can't have winners without losers...

Only true in a zero-sum game.  More generally, you can't have competition without relative losers.

Correct. My money is still sitting in my trading account, so I am only a relative loser. Considering my initial buy-in price I am still doing rather well. Trading is not a zero sum game. Both parties feel they are better off or the trade would not take place.

I agree with you here.   However, you said the exact opposite a few times when you were being the cocky rendition of yourself.... I personally prefer the more reasonable version... but I am just one person... 

It only appears I said the exact opposite. The confusion is understandable. Currency speculating is a zero sum game. One trader thinks the price will go up, one thinks the price will go down, and the person who wins gains the exact amount the other trader loses (minus trading fee). Trading in general is positive sum because we traders have different end goals. I specifically said I was hedging and that due to my cold storage coins I am in a net long position even though I sold my trading stash to lock in profits. The benefit for me is that I can endure the swings of the market for far longer now without relying on day trading profits. The benefit for the other trader is obvious, unless the market goes lower than his buy-in price and he sells then.

[JayJuanGee]

The volume of this pump is very similar to March 3. The difference is that it is spread over two days instead of one. I won't trust this as a true recovery unless there is a successful retest of $340 support on higher volume. Every dollar spent on the exchange is a dollar not used to put a floor on the price in the event of another stampede for the exits.

You kids run and play. I guess it falls to me to be the responsible adult in the room. A roll I am unused to. Hopefully I will not be needed.

fine words, sir.

I disagree. The pump of March 3 was one single player with a few millions. This one is a lot of tiny little buys on Chinese markets that keep on pressing from the bottom up, inspiring confidence in the western markets and causing the leveraged shorts to explode in a fireworks show.

Is this concerted? I don't think so. I think we simply have a new massive herd of Chinese gamblers who are entering the speculation game by buying bitcoins and altcoins.

You said yourself we are all China's bitch. Here's something that just popped into my head:

Whacky conspiracy theory:

Price is being manipulated by the PBoC to accumulate a large position for the purpose of adding it to it's gold and foreign currency reserves. The ultimate goal is to make the renminbi a major world currency, possibly the world's reserve currency.

evidence for said whacky theory:

1. stochastics are funny.

2. Public airing of pro-bitcoin feature on public television followed by outright hostile words and policy, followed by...uncertainty"

evidence against said whacky theory:

1. That's the beauty of conspiracy theories. The lack of evidence merely shows you how deep it goes!

discuss.

I generally agree with that particular conspiracy theory as a chinese aspiration.. does NOT mean that they will achieve it, but are taking measures to solidify  holdings in various assets, including PMs and BTC... b/c they view the dollar as a bad investment.