LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 0%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = Undecided, sir.
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 100%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 100%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 100%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 1%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 1%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 1%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 1%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
Your projections are very black and white.. Almost nothing is 100% or 0% unless it is already happening or no way in hell that it is going to happen. Maybe you stopped rounding below 1%.. but still... 0%? Some people confused 100% b/c they were literally reading the past into their future projections. You seem to NOT have made that particular mistake in your projection b/c you put item d) as undecided "sir"  |
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I'm pretty surprised to learn he still has a sizable amount there. There was plenty of chance to arbitrage and get out in the last bubble, even with profit. It was not sizable enough to warrant a flight to Japan. However, it is sizable enough to ruin my weekend. Loaded has disappeared since his weekend got ruined by gox. Hope he's alright I'm sure he's fine. Loosing money is always upsetting and I like loaded but he has plenty of coins to look at and cry, same cant be said for a lot of other people who lost their entire life savings. Dreamspark: How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?" Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices. Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution. Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC. If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg. And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story. |
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How do you guys plan on being a 'wealthy elite'?
Maybe if you have at least 1000 btc
All it takes is 1 I am NOT trying to screw up anybody's wishes, yet I would like to hear how 1 BTC is going to make the holder a wealthy elite, and by when.. and how much will it be? I do understand the theory of BTC having the potential to take over about 25% or more of known currencies transactions and storage of value functions - however, something like that would be quite a ways into the future, if ever. I also understand the theory of 7 Billion people in the world and only 21 million bitcoin (some bitcoin will be lost or forever removed from circulation) - but the 1 BTC to be a wealthy elite assumes fairly wide adoption of bitcoin and desire for bitcoin by the world... and acceptance by the current status quo wealthy to transfer some of their wealth into bitcoin. So, by when will 1 BTC make a person a wealthy elite..? and how much will it be? and by the way, I don't expect to live forever, either, so I would like to enjoy some of this wealthy elite status while I still have some youth and energy. 99% of people don't (really) care shit about gold, but still if you have 1/21,000,000 of the world's gold (approx 9 kg), you are pretty well off. Not rich yet, but 10 times that amount makes you really rich. Even if 99% don't care. If BTC does as well as gold (which was my last year revelation, considering fractional reserve and such - which is only now coming mainstream) having BTC1 is good and BTC10 is really rich. If it becomes more accepted than gold is now, even BTC1 could suffice. But because the road there is so bumpy, make sure you have at least BTC10 now so that you don't squander all in the speed bumps ahead  Yes, and we know that bitcoin has a lot more potentially useful features, as compared with gold, so I agree with you about that. I know in the wall observer thread you have given your bitcoin price projections for 2014, and I believe I had seen some of your various bitcoin price projections beyond that.. so I kind of have ideas from where you are coming. Generally, I agree with your optimism about bitcoin, and certainly each of us have different expectations and experiences (whether relating to bitcoin or other areas). Even though you are quite a bit more bullish than me, I would prefer for some of your scenarios to come to fruition rather than my own. Actually, another thing that I have noticed is that a different perspective regarding BTC likely evolves after achieving a bit of a profit cushion... so I am definitely looking forward to that day, with my current bitcoin portfolio. |
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1 btc = $1 million
Could you be more specific? I mean I was pretty specific in my questions, and I am NOT trying to get you to do all the work but only to disclose more specifically your projection. If I were to make such a prediction / projection, I would attempt to be somewhat specific (and a range is usually safer than an absolute specific number) |
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Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014: Euro Area (Euro) 1% USA (Dollar) 1.6 % China (Yuan) 2% Brazil (Real) 6.5% Argentina (Peso) 11% Venezuela (Bolívar) 54% Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350% O.k. You are very selective with the period of time that you selected. With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD. Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014. You should reach the opposite conclusion that Bitcoin actually deflationary rather than inflationary.. which is likely going to continue into the long term future.. so long as bitcoin survives... and really may NOT be too fair to pick any currency, such as bitcoin over its adoption phase to be reflective of long term stability. The adoption phase number (in which we currently are in) are going to be quite a bit skewed in the deflationary direction - much more than later. |
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Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.
If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes (I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  ) Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC? Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters. |
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Ok, for the curious here are the impromptu survey results averaged over all 14 responses :
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 5.54
So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.
As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.
Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH. Yeah, i would put the current value of BTC at between $750 and $850 (I am NOT sure whether my predicted values add up to that very accurately) - however, overall the forum seems to be much more bullish than me. |
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The bottom was there, final.
Though, tommorow will be a special day. I sincerely hope things will go as I have planned. I bought a few more coins yesterday morning. I am 70% $400 range and 30% $700. I could SODL and make a little bit of profit, but shit, Yolo, right?
You can figure out your exact running tally of your cost per BTC by plugging your numbers into excel and then running a formula across the columns. I find it to be a very useful thing to monitor - because if I make some trades and either build up my BTC quantity or lower my BTC quantity b/c of those trades, my price per BTC will be inversely affected by that. Below are descriptions for five of my columns in my excel spreadsheet, and I am sure there are numerous ways to be even more creative. A) Total BTC B) Avg $ per BTC (Column A / Column C) C) Total_$_Invested(including fees) D) % Invested (Column F / Column B) E) Current BTC Cash_Value (Column F * Column A) F) Current price per BTC |
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LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 15%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 25%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 55%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 85%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 80%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 60%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 35%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 25%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 15%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
What a bull... and I say that as a compliment. hehehe...... and accordingly, i have a 15% chance that my 59BTC will be worth $10,000 each. that is present value of $10k x 59 x .15 = $88,500, and I have invested less than $35K.. therefore, my BTC are nearly worth 3x their current market value.. I better buy some more... he he he. |
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("price" = exchange rate in Bitstamp, or a western exch with highest volume iff Bitstamp closes) LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 (less than 10%)b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 (less than 15%)c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 (less than 35%)d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 (more than 50%)e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 (more than 95%)f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 (more than 60%)g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 (more than 50%)h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 (less than 30%)i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 (less than 10%)j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 (less than 5%)k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 (less than 3%)l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 (less than 3%)m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 (less than 2%)n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 (less than .5%)/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS I will add mine shortly in a separate post so you can quote this one if you like to join I am an amateur at bitcoin but i still typed in my predictions, and it does seem to be a useful mental exercise, even though you are giving a lot of options and I believe you meant to say the remainder of 2014, but you could as well said in the next 365 days. |
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball. I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her. So what kind of odds are you giving it? I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT. You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity). I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction. Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy). In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period. That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount. I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details). I didn't claim to predict that either. I just said that it was possible, and I was basing solely on a 2011 chart. However, that's a very crude way to make a prediction. It all depends what events unfold in this time, especially those involving the opening and closing of exchanges. I was NOT the only person that responded to your post, and it seems that some people took offense to it. I just tried to convert it into more specifics.. through the framing of a bet. I don't really care about bets very much; however, framing the bet can get us down to specifics to some extent.. especially when it seems that you were getting a little dig in at my comment about the crystal ball... Well, you know we go based on a lot of things, and you put a lot of weight on TA graphs, at least that is what you say, and in the end each of us our going to buy or sell BTC based on various aspects, including our beliefs about the BTC fundamentals, as well as maybe other matters such as news and TA Graphs. In that regard, if you are NOT even willing to take a bet that BTC prices will be below $500 for at least half of the next 365 days, then you would even be less confident that your statement about BTC never being above $460 was even a very probably statement in your own thinking.... probably well less than 1 or 2%, and yet you made it. Anyhow, I do NOT want to argue about it, but it just seemed to be a quite outrageous thing to communicate as if it were possible based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin. |
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There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.
You can hardly A) if you don't B), and you lose A) if you don't B). That's why the odd-few bitcoiners who have managed to A), should come to Malla castle for the trainings on how to retain their bitcoins in the face of all the threats against them. Although A can buy B and B often leads to A in the general sense not in Bitcoin land per se. This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field... Sometimes it is well worth the $500, but not always... This is going off on abit of a tangent from the first conversation, we we're talking about how to move larger amounts of money from one place to another, courses and expert advice isn't needed for this just either A or B as first said. I don't think that it is going off on a tangent if some people are telling you that you need B) in order to manage A) better... and part of the suggestion is courses.. .... yes, there is some of that going on, and I did NOT initially bring the conversation there.. but identified that was where the conversation was going or at least an underlying thread of such conversation. |
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[snip]
Everything your saying has been said since $1 hence why its boring. Read some of the old posts on this forum and see how your whining (about too much volatilty, high hopes, dump pumps, no real reason for the price etc etc ) is a complete regurgitation of things said before. I wish you well but your wrong on so many counts. I have no doubt that once the price returns to previous ATH levels you will either turn uber bull or disapear off the forum as per usual. You were wasting your time engaging with Pumpkinhead.. I had already tried.. and by about one or two posts, you could tell he was in LaLa Land or some kind of paid propaganda machine. You tried to convince me that it would be a smart choice to buy when the price was around 550. Lucky for me, I come from the LaLa Land where the propaganda machine told me not to buy. I cannot recall trying to convince anyone to buy... but I have been making assertions that I have been buying BTC all the way down including at around $550 and lower and even higher. i have been buying BTC since $1200. Yes, I have said that many times - b/c that is when I started. I also say that people make their own choices about how to proceed with their investment(s) based on a variety of factors, including risk profile and other investments and reasons why they are adding BTC to their mix. Anyhow, you could be correct that prices will continue to go down.. but I have already experienced that you tend to be in la la land regarding your willingness to discuss reality rather than some made up sets of circumstances. |
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This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field... Sometimes it is well worth the $500, but not always...
$500 won't get you in sorry We are talking about people who realistically need this kind of services, and they have more than BTC57. I don't mean any offense here. EDIT: That still sounds smug to the extreme - let me explain more. The intention of the training is to gather people whose bitcoins are worth $500k or more at present ( BTC1,000) and the facility will expand when the bitcoin price goes up, so that the lower threshold in bitcoins decreases, but in dollars it keeps going up, unless many similar facilities spring up and offer better services more cheaply. As far as I know, this is the first one with this kind of idea, but definitely not the last. Perhaps not many feel they need the service, but that is my business risk. It will anyway be a general purpose luxury country hotel and my holiday home. No offense taken.... and it does sound a little elitist.. but that is your target audience.. no problem with that. I was using $500 as an example as an easy to round number (I guess that I was being charitable in the service about which I was speculating). Yes, I started investing in BTC in November 2013, and i have only accumulated 59 so far... It has been a slow grinding process, in part b/c of bad timing concerning when I got in. Yet some of these tricky and grinding situations are going to continue to exist for us regular folks (or later arrivers) to accumulate BTC... or whatever other investments that we may have. |
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball. I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her. So what kind of odds are you giving it? I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT. You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity). I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction. Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy). In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period. That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount. I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details). |
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There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.
You can hardly A) if you don't B), and you lose A) if you don't B). That's why the odd-few bitcoiners who have managed to A), should come to Malla castle for the trainings on how to retain their bitcoins in the face of all the threats against them. Although A can buy B and B often leads to A in the general sense not in Bitcoin land per se. This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field... Sometimes it is well worth the $500, but not always... |
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[snip]
Everything your saying has been said since $1 hence why its boring. Read some of the old posts on this forum and see how your whining (about too much volatilty, high hopes, dump pumps, no real reason for the price etc etc ) is a complete regurgitation of things said before. I wish you well but your wrong on so many counts. I have no doubt that once the price returns to previous ATH levels you will either turn uber bull or disapear off the forum as per usual. You were wasting your time engaging with Pumpkinhead.. I had already tried.. and by about one or two posts, you could tell he was in LaLa Land or some kind of paid propaganda machine. |
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball. |
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And then if you have more than $10K in fiat, isn't that a reportable event... ? There may also be bank fees, too? Who will carry $80K cash to starbucks?
There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people. Yes, that makes sense... .. ... and sometimes we get these kinds of leads by participating in these kinds of forums..... .. but maybe some discussions may be by PM or in person.. depending on the subject matter.. and getting back to the trust issue... |
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And then if you have more than $10K in fiat, isn't that a reportable event... ? There may also be bank fees, too? Who will carry $80K cash to starbucks?
Answering these questions goes above my free consultation, sorry. I had a lot of questions in my post, and I suppose some of these matters regarding decentralized exchanges will be resolved with time. I share a lot of my information and experiences for free, and yes in some circles, I also charge for consultations, but to each their own about how much to share and whether or NOT to share certain kinds of information in public threads. In any event, it would be nice to know what people are doing.. whether you or anyone else... b/c I know that there are various solutions that are being worked on.. I just am NOT sure about how I would proceed if dealing with amounts over $10k.. probably break it up.. .. but there may be other ways to accomplish these matters, as well. |
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