Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

How shall we give probabilities? percentages?

Preferably like I just did, by including the text for readability.

What's the point of making predictions when the main factors involved creating the price can't be currently predicted?

The exercise would force you, for once, to make a post that can be mathematically analyzed.

If it could not be predicted, why is it that I constantly make money by predicting it? I am here to help you, so unless you get paid really well for distracting, how about start listening!

[TERA]

Basically the current trend is a sinking ship. Ever since DECEMBER when the chinese millionaires who were trading on btcchina found out there was some problem with bitcoin and they ditched for good, never to return. What did return was some lower class traders and a bunch of fake volume on this new exchange called Huobi to make things look the same but they really weren't.

Even if Huobi doesn't get closed the larger trend will still continue after people realize that the volume was fake anyway. It may appear that the Chinese news effects the markets, but this is all sentiment based, causing alternating waves of boom/bust and hype/despair - a cycle within a larger downtrend. Nothing that happens in China will even affect the larger downtrend. China is all a mirage, and the downtrend was incepted in December.

So it's been doomed since then to have this slow and controlled bubble deflation. Now just look at the volume and the orderbooks on Bitstamp and btce - it is nowhere near enough to support a market of this size. So we are just on this endless slow slide down till the volume is regained - probably around $180. Long slow bleed to $180 is the current trend. The CURRENT trend...

That is of course, unless something intervenes. If new trustworthy markets opened and gain volume, then the trend will be reversed more quickly, and the target will be much higher.

[JayJuanGee]

There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.

You can hardly A) if you don't B), and you lose A) if you don't B). That's why the odd-few bitcoiners who have managed to A), should come to Malla castle for the trainings on how to retain their bitcoins in the face of all the threats against them.

Although A can buy B and B often leads to A in the general sense not in Bitcoin land per se.

This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field...   Sometimes it is well worth the $500,  but not always...

This is going off on abit of a tangent from the first conversation, we we're talking about how to move larger amounts of money from one place to another, courses and expert advice isn't needed for this just either A or B as first said.

I don't think that it is going off on a tangent if some people are telling you that you need B) in order to manage A) better... and part of the suggestion is courses.. .... yes, there is some of that going on, and I did NOT initially bring the conversation there.. but identified that was where the conversation was going or at least an underlying thread of such conversation.

[dogechode]

It is starting to look more and more like $500 may become the new base price for Bitcoin, not $1000 as many had hoped. Does anyone have a link to that Meryll Lynch report where they assessed it's value at $1300 a little while ago?

[bitgeek]

It is starting to look more and more like $500 may become the new base price for Bitcoin, not $1000 as many had hoped. Does anyone have a link to that Meryll Lynch report where they assessed it's value at $1300 a little while ago?

I'd be happy with 500s This would prove btc is not going down (like so many people here predict). Don't forget it was below $200 not long ago.

[Guinpen]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 15%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 25%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = >99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 75%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 50%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 35%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 10%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 5%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 3%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 2%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 1%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = <1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[bitgeek]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 1%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 50%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 20%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 10%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 5%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 2%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 1%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[dreamspark]

You chose to ignore them, you bought in didnt you, what makes you any better than anyone else.

Yeah and I bet the guys saying it from $1 are kicking themselves about the wealth they could have secured for themselves.

Who knows, $340 is as good of a bottom as any.

Or do you think that this is a bull trap and were only going down to previous YTL?

These faults weren't having an effect at the time when I bought.

They are stupid if they're kicking themselves for it. It's like kicking yourself after seeing the lottery numbers and saying "only if I chose 45, 5, 6, 11, 22 and 37". During this time there was only blind hope that bitcoin will be this big. No experienced, educated and knowledgeable investors got involved, so no skill was involved in seeing potential. Most of the ones who were involved then, were just dumb kids who got lucky at random google searches and got excited because they weren't skilled enough to assess the low probability of success.

Yes, that's what I thought, "who knows". Just some time ago you tried to present yourself as an skillful trader, but when asking some certainty on your predictions then the answer will always be "who knows". Because you really don't have a clue on what will happen. You aren't able enough to make proper analysis to support any of your predictions. You just make blind bets that have a 50/50 winning chance to you.

But I'm telling you with certainty, if there aren't new strong laws made to support the financial use of bitcoin in US or EU (I haven't considered China as an option for potential for a long time already), or if there aren't new markets opened with proper volume in new geographical locations, then this WAS NOT the bottom and it will drop more then 340$.

Yes, thats what I thought, of course these faults didnt matter when you were buying just when your not.

Your laughably wrong again, a lot of the early bitcoiners were far from dumb kids who got lucky from google searching, are you seriously that retarded? The majority of the early bitcoiners were older, well educated, skilled (most in cryptography) and saw and could understand the problems with "digital cash" that Satoshi has solved. An inordinate amount of skill and knowledge was required to see Bitcoins potential early. Your showing how little knowledge you posses of the history of Bitcoin.

Who knows was an ambiguous answer to an ambiguous question. Your basically asking will we see an ATH before a dip below $340 which is a question way too broad to give a definitive answer to. We could go to $1100 I could triple my money and then go down to  below $340 and I would still be wrong if I had said yes to your question.  I know your only trying to trap me in an answer but at this point it doesnt matter.

Comical how you ask me for a definitive answer then tell me your answer but with clauses that are open to interpretation to protect your prediction. Why would I say this is definately the bottom when all the Chinese exchanges could close tommorow? I dont need to make predictions like those when I can react the the market and news accordingly. I made my proper analysis and bought in the mid $350's I sold some of those coins today at +30% in 48 hours. I can now make predicitions on the next move . If we go down again I buy more all the time making money while you sit there making nothing on your very long term ambiguous assertions. Nobody has a crystal ball, nobody knows what will happen for sure but in the short term your loosing and the people your berating are winning. End of.

[rpietila]

Basically the current trend is a sinking ship. Ever since DECEMBER when the chinese millionaires who were trading on btcchina found out there was some problem with bitcoin and they ditched for good, never to return. What did return was some lower class traders and a bunch of fake volume on this new exchange called Huobi to make things look the same but they really weren't.

Even if Huobi doesn't get closed the larger trend will still continue after people realize that the volume was fake anyway. It may appear that the Chinese news effects the markets, but this is all sentiment based, causing alternating waves of boom/bust and hype/despair - a cycle within a larger downtrend. Nothing that happens in China will even affect the larger downtrend. China is all a mirage, and the downtrend was incepted in December.

So it's been doomed since then to have this slow and controlled bubble deflation. Now just look at the volume and the orderbooks on Bitstamp and btce - it is nowhere near enough to support a market of this size. So we are just on this endless slow slide down till the volume is regained - probably around $180. Long slow bleed to $180 is the current trend. The CURRENT trend...

That is of course, unless something intervenes. If new trustworthy markets opened and gain volume, then the trend will be reversed more quickly, and the target will be much higher.

Have you, or have you not, considered that crypto is better than fiat, and is therefore replacing fiat like Internet replaced so many things?

All your talk is nullified when you consider this matter for even a short while.

There is a limited number of bitcoins, and if you get them cheaper, it is good for you.

Of course if all your trades that you claim were real, that is good for you too. Sadly I don't believe it, because you only claim them afterwards, and when looking at your actual predictions, they are ambiguous and wrong. See my post a few pages ago.

[JayJuanGee]

It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.

It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year.  Both are possible.  Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them?  I don't have a crystal ball.

I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her.

So what kind of odds are you giving it? 

I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT.

You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity).  I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction. 

Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy).

In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period.    That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount. 

I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details).

I didn't claim to predict that either. I just said that it was possible, and I was basing solely on a 2011 chart. However, that's a very crude way to make a prediction. It all depends what events unfold in this time, especially those involving the opening and closing of exchanges.

I was NOT the only person that responded to your post, and it seems that some people took offense to it.  I just tried to convert it into more specifics.. through the framing of a bet.  I don't really care about bets very much; however, framing the bet can get us down to specifics to some extent.. especially when it seems that you were getting a little dig in at my comment about the crystal ball...

Well, you know we go based on a lot of things, and you put a lot of weight on TA graphs, at least that is what you say, and in the end each of us our going to buy or sell BTC based on various aspects, including our beliefs about the BTC fundamentals, as well as maybe other matters such as news and TA Graphs. 

In that regard, if you are NOT even willing to take a bet that BTC prices will be below $500 for at least half of the next 365 days, then you would even be less confident that your statement about BTC never being above $460 was even a very probably statement in your own thinking.... probably well less than 1 or 2%, and yet you made it. 

Anyhow, I do NOT want to argue about it, but it just seemed to be a quite outrageous thing to communicate as if it were possible based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin.

[JorgeStolfi]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
[ ... ]
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
[ ... ]
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I have absolutely no idea of what the price will do.  However the market clearly is not that optimistic, otherwise the price today would be at least 4000 x 50% = 2000$.

The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.

[hodlmybtc]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 5%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 60%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 97.5%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 92.5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 40%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 30%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 20%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 12.5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The exercise would force you, for once, to make a post that can be mathematically analyzed.

If it could not be predicted, why is it that I constantly make money by predicting it? I am here to help you, so unless you get paid really well for distracting, how about start listening!

Haha, calling your post mathematically analyzed, reminds me of this video and how much the "bitcoin trading wizards" remind me of that scene:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygfX3VAF_gg

You're one funny bugger, that's for sure.
4 days ago you were a bagholder with -110$ because you were certain that the price won't fall below 400 at first and 384 after. Now you are +10$ for a couple of hours and you are dead certain about your advanced mathematical! trading abilities again.

I think that someone could write an awesome comedy with getting inspiration from this forum.

[Heater]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0.1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 1%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 2%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 10%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 98%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 95%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 90%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 85%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 75%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 55%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 45%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 40%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 7%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[TERA]

Basically the current trend is a sinking ship. Ever since DECEMBER when the chinese millionaires who were trading on btcchina found out there was some problem with bitcoin and they ditched for good, never to return. What did return was some lower class traders and a bunch of fake volume on this new exchange called Huobi to make things look the same but they really weren't.

Even if Huobi doesn't get closed the larger trend will still continue after people realize that the volume was fake anyway. It may appear that the Chinese news effects the markets, but this is all sentiment based, causing alternating waves of boom/bust and hype/despair - a cycle within a larger downtrend. Nothing that happens in China will even affect the larger downtrend. China is all a mirage, and the downtrend was incepted in December.

So it's been doomed since then to have this slow and controlled bubble deflation. Now just look at the volume and the orderbooks on Bitstamp and btce - it is nowhere near enough to support a market of this size. So we are just on this endless slow slide down till the volume is regained - probably around $180. Long slow bleed to $180 is the current trend. The CURRENT trend...

That is of course, unless something intervenes. If new trustworthy markets opened and gain volume, then the trend will be reversed more quickly, and the target will be much higher.

Have you, or have you not, considered that crypto is better than fiat, and is therefore replacing fiat like Internet replaced so many things?

All your talk is nullified when you consider this matter for even a short while.

There is a limited number of bitcoins, and if you get them cheaper, it is good for you.

Of course if all your trades that you claim were real, that is good for you too. Sadly I don't believe it, because you only claim them afterwards, and when looking at your actual predictions, they are ambiguous and wrong. See my post a few pages ago.

I am actually not so bullish about bitcoin that I think it will succeed as a replacement for fiat.

[rpietila]

The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.

That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.

Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.

[Todorius]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0.1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 2%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 10%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 95%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =75%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 65%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 30%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[niothor]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
[ ... ]
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
[ ... ]
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I have absolutely no idea of what the price will do.  However the market clearly is not that optimistic, otherwise the price today would be at least 4000 x 50% = 2000$.

The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.

You haven't been around during the 300k/BTC predictions.

[dreamspark]

There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.

You can hardly A) if you don't B), and you lose A) if you don't B). That's why the odd-few bitcoiners who have managed to A), should come to Malla castle for the trainings on how to retain their bitcoins in the face of all the threats against them.

Although A can buy B and B often leads to A in the general sense not in Bitcoin land per se.

This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field...   Sometimes it is well worth the $500,  but not always...

This is going off on abit of a tangent from the first conversation, we we're talking about how to move larger amounts of money from one place to another, courses and expert advice isn't needed for this just either A or B as first said.

I don't think that it is going off on a tangent if some people are telling you that you need B) in order to manage A) better... and part of the suggestion is courses.. .... yes, there is some of that going on, and I did NOT initially bring the conversation there.. but identified that was where the conversation was going or at least an underlying thread of such conversation.

That wasn't where the converstation was going but okay. You were asking how it was possible to move large amounts of money which means that your not a financial expert or even clued up on how that can happen. Hence you need B to manage A better, as do most. Your intepretation of B is someone who is giving out expert advice or is able to move the money themselves etc but I only said know the right people. The person who you know B doesnt have to be the right person he just has to know someone who is.

Anyway pointless conversation at this point.

[ShroomsKit]

Tera must feel so bad that he's forced to buy in with a loss. As always.
So what's left for him to do?
"Bitcoin sinking ship blah blah never can sell this high again cry mweeeh we're going down yadiya".