Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[boumalo]

I have to agree, I am uncomfortable at this price somehow.
short is the choice for now.

At this point I am not sure, I wouldn't be surprise to see the price dip again or a spike up higher than 500

[marcelus]

This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.

The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.

The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.

The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.

A sustained reversal doesn't require news. It requires the market to decide there's been enough pain.

[Davyd05]

was that short covering on stamP?

[dreamspark]

Is it already sleepysleepy time in china?

Yes early morning in China.

[dreamspark]

lol at the mini panic sell when that 500 BTC wall was flashed.

[roslinpl]

Is it already sleepysleepy time in china?

Yes early morning in China.

So here we go :-) maybe after today we will know something more about situation in China.

And people will stop Panic about 15th of April.

[stavrosss]

 There easy to see how Bitstamp has just manipulated the price minutes ago ! How ordinary people can make money if some 20 something year old who happens to be the owner of the exchange is driving the price for his own benefit ??!!

[uhoh]

There easy to see how Bitstamp has just manipulated the price minutes ago ! How ordinary people can make money if some 20 something year old who happens to be the owner of the exchange is driving the price for his own benefit ??!!

What a fantastically insightful first post! welcome!

[stavrosss]

 Reading about the idiots who regularly loose money , in the previews posts -- there's no wonder . I just realize how simply you can go down , just seeing one exchange tricks . Yes , indeed we are some idiots here who loose money , and others , maybe connected with the exchanges , are laughing at us ! Very impressive business ....for them !   

[ShroomsKit]

Reading about the idiots who regularly loose money , in the previews posts -- there's no wonder . I just realize how simply you can go down , just seeing one exchange tricks . Yes , indeed we are some idiots here who loose money , and others , maybe connected with the exchanges , are laughing at us ! Very impressive business ....for them !   

I'm pretty sure it won't be a loss to put you on ignore right now. Buh bye.

[JorgeStolfi]

Is it already sleepysleepy time in china?

It is 2:30 am in China, they should be in bed, but Hobi still has significant volume (1500 BC in 1/2 hour, on "calm" days it is 1/10 of that).

AFAICTFGTO, today Apr/14 was the last day that deposits could be made into Huobi via China's Mechant Bank (CBC).  Withdrawals are still possible.  Huobi had another account in another bank (ICBC) closed a couple of days ago.  Huobi still has accounts open at a few other banks, which have not yet. received closing orders from their headquarters. 

Huobi apparently is pleading with these banks, hoping that it can keep the accounts open by implementing additional controls against money landering etc.

[p0peji]

Reading about the idiots who regularly loose money , in the previews posts -- there's no wonder . I just realize how simply you can go down , just seeing one exchange tricks . Yes , indeed we are some idiots here who loose money , and others , maybe connected with the exchanges , are laughing at us ! Very impressive business ....for them !   

In a way this is online poker 2.0  

[igorr]

Reading about the idiots who regularly loose money , in the previews posts -- there's no wonder . I just realize how simply you can go down , just seeing one exchange tricks . Yes , indeed we are some idiots here who loose money , and others , maybe connected with the exchanges , are laughing at us ! Very impressive business ....for them !   

In a way this is online poker 2.0  

holdem is a much better game.

[JayJuanGee]

The bottom was there, final.

Though, tommorow will be a special day. I sincerely hope things will go as I have planned. I bought a few more coins yesterday morning. I am 70% $400 range and 30% $700. I could SODL and make a little bit of profit, but shit, Yolo, right?

You can figure out your exact running tally of your cost per BTC by plugging your numbers into excel and then running a formula across the columns.  I find it to be a very useful thing to monitor - because if I make some trades and either build up my BTC quantity or lower my BTC quantity b/c of those trades, my price per BTC will be inversely affected by that.

Below are descriptions for five of my columns in my excel spreadsheet, and I am sure there are numerous ways to be even more creative.

A) Total BTC      
B) Avg $ per BTC      (Column A / Column C)     
C) Total_$_Invested(including fees)            
D) % Invested               (Column F / Column B) 
E) Current BTC Cash_Value   (Column F * Column A) 
F) Current price per BTC 

[billyjoeallen]

Looks like the Death Bot is possibly on Bitfinex now.

The most likely culprit for manipulating the price down now is the same person or people who manipulated it up in the first place.

Looking at the chart, it is apparent that the post Gox infusion of cash (i.e. the $710 whale money) was removed. ALL OF IT by March 26. and the downward trend continued as if nothing had happened. The people who pumped @ $400 are likely taking your money now.

[JorgeStolfi]

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. 

[Bronstad]

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. 

Your horns fell off your mask there buddy.

[JayJuanGee]

Ok, for the curious here are the impromptu survey results averaged over all 14 responses :

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100   5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200   9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300   20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400   55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500   89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750   79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000   72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250   63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000   52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000   43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000   31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000   23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000   10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000   5.54

So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.

As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.

Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH.

Yeah, i would put the current value of BTC at between $750 and $850 (I am NOT sure whether my predicted values add up to that very accurately) - however, overall the forum seems to be much more bullish than me.

[JayJuanGee]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

[dnaleor]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 5%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 10%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 20%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 85%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =80%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 75%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 70%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 50%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 33%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 10%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS