You have to love all these butthurt bears in denial
hehehehehe.... I predict that they will stay in denial forever.. even when we are at $10k or above... However, in this round, they are probably gonna keep suggesting that we are still on a downtrend.. maybe until we get to about $800.. .. which should be reasonably doable in the next few weeks... |
|
|
|
Goxish behavior spotted.
Pump on your favorite manipulative exchange(Gox, Huobi), dump at the same time on Stamp. Repeat.
This has been seen in the last weeks of Gox.
you must be getting close to the end of your Bitcoin bashing internship? |
|
|
|
You can't have winners without losers...
Only true in a zero-sum game. More generally, you can't have competition without relative losers. Correct. My money is still sitting in my trading account, so I am only a relative loser. Considering my initial buy-in price I am still doing rather well. Trading is not a zero sum game. Both parties feel they are better off or the trade would not take place. I agree with you here. However, you said the exact opposite a few times when you were being the cocky rendition of yourself.... I personally prefer the more reasonable version... but I am just one person...  |
|
|
|
Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.
unfortunately a lot of people lose btc by trying to gauge sentiment here before realising most posts are just random gibberish and those that post those things usually don't believe it themselves. you've taken a hit but you'll recover, just remember to only trade with a portion of your btc (or just hold) so you can be patient and not freak out at sudden movements. There were a lot of fancy charts and lines and people with autistic math friends  I've learned my lesson. You have not learned your lesson though. The biggest lesson is patience. and buying back here and now is not the best place to have made a trade. And how the hell I'm ever going to guess correctly at when the "best place is?" The whole reason I sold at 400 was to try and come back in at a lower point. All that did was waste money and energy if I really believe in a long-term hold of btc. You may need to reflect on the matter. NONE of us can really know your situation better than you. However, for example, it is possible that you could have taken your lumpsum that you just bought in with and to strategically decided how to invest it over the next weeks or even months. Maybe, for example half right away, then 15% at $490 15% at $480 and 20% at $470? Of course there are other scenarios, too.. and surely it is possible that we will never see $499 again. To figure out a strategy that will cause you NOT to act too quickly and with your whole BTC investment would likely take a little more work, but it may save you in the long run. On the other hand, what you did may be more suitable to you, and maybe you already know that. NOW, on the other hand, if BTC prices drop back to $400 or $300, what are you going to do? you will just wait it out? or buy more? or what? I am also somewhat anxious when n the price is dropping and I am buying.. and the value of my whole portfolio is dropping. My personal plan is to continue to buy as the price drops. otherwise I mostly HODL. I do some other variations, but that is usually with a small number of coins. Sometimes I win with those other coins, but frequently it is a big waste of time for me and my personality to try to trade (at least I have NOT figured out a sure technique, yet). On the other hand, I foresee that if the price shoots up (for an extended period of time) past my average buy in price, I may take some profits... that is if i think that the price is way above the likelihood that it will continue to go up.. I may wait until $1,500 before I do that? NOT sure yet, will have to see how quickly the price goes up, if at all. |
|
|
|
Back in. I'm ready to see some rockets.
Now walk away and come back in a year or two. The speculating over the long term is always the best way with a very volatile currency/stock. I'm partly telling myself here since while chasing the *bottom* I missed the actual bottom and have subsequently lost all the hard-fought gains I made in the last couple of months *sigh* Also I bought in back in December/January.... well above $700 lol Main thing I've learned: the pain of watching it rise while out of it was far, far, far worse than watching it sink while holding. I think if you do the math, you lose more by being out than by being in - if that makes any sense. |
|
|
|
Tera: OK, you have your models, and I have mine. I just laughed when I accidentally found your bullish predictions from 11.Feb, and my refutation of it, of which the latter became true.
The real problem is the lack of framework, imo. To be held accountable in one's predictions, one would need to have a system in place for forecasts, timing, probabilities, buy/sell signals, and to monitor their accuracy. Just waving hands and writing unsystematized stuff in threads does not count. My adhoc query about the percentage probabilities for the remainder of 2014 was a humble attempt to get this a little more accountable.
But of course I realize that most posters don't want it, because it would reveal their badness and expose all the trolls.
That was a great idea to have such a poll with such public specifics, and only a couple of bears participated... There were a few people who had very similar thinking to me, but most of the predictions were a bit more bullish than me... and that's o.k. I hope that they are correct b/c I would profit from that, as well, but I guess I am putting a bit less money into BTC based on my a little bit less bullish sentiment(s). |
|
|
|
If I am not mistaken, this run will take Bitcoin all the way to 6500-7000 USD (based on how it rose last bull run from 60 to around 1200).
There might be some flashcrashes on the way but the major correction will come when the price is at the range of 6500-7000 USD.
I have been buying coins and even today I made a fiat transfer to Bitstamp so fresh cash is on the way. I still have significiant cash reserves to push the coin higher if it is necessary. Right now I do not recommend to short. The odds are that the price will go pretty high. Who am I to stop BTC running even towards 10 000 USD?
That is one heck of an assumption and the thinking that lies behind every speculative bubble in history. I'm not going to put a ceiling price on bitcoin, but I won't make assumptions like that either! yeah lol.... cant trust fools to buy when it's cheap..... and you cant trust them to stop buying when it's expensive! mania knows no ceilings. The strangest/funniest thing is the change in sentiment from just 2 days ago. It's like a bipolar switch. Bam... and it's a bull market. Yeah.. changes in prices, and also some of my additional buying of BTC has taken me from 45% in the red to 17% in the red (on paper) in a mere 5 days.... It is almost in my vision to be in the black again.. Maybe even HODLin will accomplish getting in the black. I could attempt some trades, but that would probably make matters worse.. HODL... seems the best approach for the moment. |
|
|
|
In my thinking, $100K would be more reasonable to project.. I understand that $1million is possible.. but to me that projection seems to be a bit too much.. given current considerations |
|
|
|
If I am not mistaken, this run will take Bitcoin all the way to 6500-7000 USD (based on how it rose last bull run from 60 to around 1200).
There might be some flashcrashes on the way but the major correction will come when the price is at the range of 6500-7000 USD.
I have been buying coins and even today I made a fiat transfer to Bitstamp so fresh cash is on the way. I still have significiant cash reserves to push the coin higher if it is necessary. Right now I do not recommend to short. The odds are that the price will go pretty high. Who am I to stop BTC running even towards 10 000 USD?
That is one heck of an assumption and the thinking that lies behind every speculative bubble in history. I'm not going to put a ceiling price on bitcoin, but I won't make assumptions like that either! It's NOT an assumption, it is a prediction. The prediction may have some flaws, b/c we cannot know exactly, and trend lines can be broken and variables can change that are the bases for the prediction. |
|
|
|
The days of sub-$500 btc are over
Yeah.. these may be sentimental moments and last opportunities for buying under $500? |
|
|
|
I don't have any clue wtf to do now.
I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."
I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"
I put almost my entire savings at 480
Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.
So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?
You already did the wrong thing by going all in or all out.. in my thinking. You have to chose what to do based on your own risk profile and goals and diversification with other investments. Even if you buy all back in now, there is no guarantee that the price is gonna continue to go up and you may lose again. I started buying at $1200 and my average buy in price is $613-ish including fees. Sure I am still in the red, and I have more fiat to buy more.. but at times I have felt very stretched.. so I am glad that the market is finally going back up... but still NO guarantees with any of this. I would begin a more sensible strategy that works for you and that you do NOT engage in panic buying or panic selling.. your strategy may differ from mine, but you need to find the one that works for you. To the OP. I have never agreed with JayJuanGee on any major point. But he is correct here. The most important lesson is patience. Patience lessons are expensive ones, but they're lessons you rarely forget. I have sold at the bottom in the past, I make mostly successful trades but have also made some serious errors. We may need to have a virtual man hug, here...  I have made quite a few mistakes, but I try to make them within a tolerance level that is acceptable to me... for example, i may buy or sell 1 bitcoin, even though I have ability to buy or sell 10 bitcoins at that moment. It's a form of hedging my bet within my tolerance. Sometimes it pays off pretty well, and other times, I could have gotten a higher payout. Anyhow, that largely suits my style... unless I feel that I really know the variables and probabilities. I know some other people who subscribe to an all or nothing approach and follow that. Sometimes they get very lucky, but I do NOT have psychological tolerance to follow such a method. Now, of course, there are rare situations in which all or nothing is the only reasonable choice based on the situation and the knowledge that i have about that particular decision.... and we each have to determine for ourselves which situations fit the all or nothing or the gradual approach for us. |
|
|
|
I don't have any clue wtf to do now.
I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."
I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"
I put almost my entire savings at 480
Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.
So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?
You already did the wrong thing by going all in or all out.. in my thinking. You have to chose what to do based on your own risk profile and goals and diversification with other investments. Even if you buy all back in now, there is no guarantee that the price is gonna continue to go up and you may lose again. I started buying at $1200 and my average buy in price is $613-ish including fees. Sure I am still in the red, and I have more fiat to buy more.. but at times I have felt very stretched.. so I am glad that the market is finally going back up... but still NO guarantees with any of this. I would begin a more sensible strategy that works for you and that you do NOT engage in panic buying or panic selling.. your strategy may differ from mine, but you need to find the one that works for you. |
|
|
|
Should I wire an additional 4.6 grand?
What do you think??
Sure. Do it. All in. Now. I'm sure it takes a couple of days, no? No one really seems to know, but it looks fairly promising that we may be going up for a little while, rather than down.. but I've been saying that since $610-ish. |
|
|
|
NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt.
Actually we have been fortunate enough for the past 25 years to enjoy a fairly good level of freedom of speech, arguably better than Americans. There are cases of libel laws used to silence journalists and bloggers, but they usually come from corrupt lower officials, mostly opposition, and private citizens. The federal government (from both parties) has been admirably tolerant of criticism (and the main media have used and abused that freedom against Lula and Dilma). In fact, most of my public testimonials and press interviews about electronic voting have been criticism of the equipment which is the joy and pride of the Electoral Justice, whose president is a Supreme Court judge; and the criticism basically implies that the Electoral Justice is incompentent if or worse. And in my tweets I have often and harshly critized both the São Paulo education secretariat, the Federal education minister (now Dilma's Chief of Staff) and several other ministries, the Supreme Court and the Judiciary in general, and several other miscellaneous authorities. I have been mostly ignored, of course, but I never felt any pressure to shut up; and ditto for uncountable other critics. (Hm, after writing this list I am now starting to worry... ) Thx for the explanation of your circumstances... I would NOT know enough to be able to really make any strong arguments, but I know that several posters here, including myself, question your objectivity in regard to your supposed scholarly work related to bitcoin and your presentation of various conclusions here. Surely I do NOT expect necessarily that you need to explore all options b/c your research could lead you to bear conclusions; however, there just seem to be so many instances in which I have seen and other have pointed out your renditions that seem to be purposefully deceptive and we know that you are smarter than that.. that you know some basic or material facts that are central to the question that you are asking but then you remain dabbling on the fringe with some kinds of extreme facts, even though those facts may be true, they are NOT the main motivating forces. Well, anyhow, I am glad for you on a professional level if you feel that you are NOT censored in any way even when you are being fairly extensively critical. |
|
|
|
As to "freedom to choose my research topics":
How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?
Hint: I am a professor of computer science. Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of? And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary. Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them, With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed. NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt. And to be fair, the problem with fiat is with most of the govts around the world and is NOT particular to Brazil. Actually, a lot of countries in south america have been really screwed over the past 30 years by the IMF and forced into various kinds of cutting of social programs and specialization to serve the needs of the USA... however, several of the countries have stood up to those specialization pressures... and said screw paying back the loans through the IMF (I think Argentina is one of them) and have created more diversified and self-sustaining economies, which the USA considers a form of hostility. Whatever the situation, there are a lot more injustices occurring through various forms of fiat manipulation rather than through bitcoin. Nobody forced them to take out the loans in the first place. They screwed themselves over. "Those asshole lenders, they actually expect me to pay them back." Gimme a break. These third world countries were begging for loans and agreed to conditions. Then they balked at honoring the conditions after they already agreed to them. The they begged to renegotiate the terms, got the new terms and balked at them too! I agree that the IMF crowd are glorified loan sharks, but if you borrow from loan sharks you should be prepared to suffer the consequences. EDIT: and if you think Argentina's economy is self-sustaining, then you are delusional. It's a basket case. I don't really want to get into a long debate, but in essence we could probably agree that there are a lot of complications with various actors in the region and even though I have studied some of this (many years ago), I know enough to realize that there are patterns of pressure from the USA intervention and some countries have been better than others in dealing with these matters. Regarding your last point about Argentina, I do NOT claim to be any kind of effort - but I was making the assertion that when they refused to pay their IMF loan, that caused a lot of additional pressures on them. But NONE of the countries really want to be export countries and only produce some low paid product and then to be dependent upon the USA to dictate their situation(s). Whether they are successful or NOT may be another story with additional intricacies, if we were to delve into the specifics, and I am sure there are on the ground people who are much more qualified than either of us to give us some of these facts. We probably agree that in the end, bitcoin can have a variety of liberating aspects for the people of many of these countries in south america |
|
|
|
As to "freedom to choose my research topics":
How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?
Hint: I am a professor of computer science. Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of? And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary. Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them, With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed. NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt. And to be fair, the problem with fiat is with most of the govts around the world and is NOT particular to Brazil. Actually, a lot of countries in south america have been really screwed over the past 30 years by the IMF and forced into various kinds of cutting of social programs and specialization to serve the needs of the USA... however, several of the countries have stood up to those specialization pressures... and said screw paying back the loans through the IMF (I think Argentina is one of them) and have created more diversified and self-sustaining economies, which the USA considers a form of hostility. Whatever the situation, there are a lot more injustices occurring through various forms of fiat manipulation rather than through bitcoin. |
|
|
|
Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?
I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project, and freedom to choose my research topics. And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting. I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time. I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why. But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....)  As to "freedom to choose my research topics": How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors? If Bitcoin is as important and/or valuable as we think it to be...having someone take the opposing side like this won't hurt. Spending hundreds of hours researching and scrutinizing something that some of us think will be worth trillions is peanuts in comparison, and in my opinion: a valuable deed on behalf of Prof Stolfi. I'm all for going to the moon and such, but having regular reality checks from people like Prof. Stolfi keeps my belly kool-aid free and prevents my head from going too far up into my colon. You seem to be giving Jorge too much credit. I do NOT have anything personal against him; b/c he is generally polite enough; however, frequently, he presents matters in a very biased way which does NOT seem to be academic quality. I have NOTHING against bears and I have NOTHING against arguing the bear case. However, frequently, Jorge will present these matters in a very tricky way and selectively choosing his data to make the negative case.. when there is obvious evidence he is excluding and choosing to leave out of his analysis. In my understanding an academic should attempt to remain neutral, and I believe that is what causes many to accuse Jorge of being funded and to be biased by his funding sources... in other words, he is claiming to be a neutral bear when he is NOT neutral.. but he does appear to be a bear. |
|
|
|
... I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game... <sigh> You already are. You have been for a while. See that ignore? Clicky. Stop wasting your time. Read more, post less, ignore trolls - this is good advice meant with the very best of intentions.  Seriously, go outside and take a deep breath of fresh air. And relax.  Yeah, I usually do NOT call posters names, such as "perverted and twisted fuck." That was a bit beyond my normal. Regarding engaging another poster, we each have our differing styles.. but there are quite a few trolls in this thread. I wonder why the forum doesnt have stricter policies to control such...... besides the ignore button? |
|
|
|
You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.
Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you. You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..
I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me. Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves. Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be. Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here. I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck. Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor.. especially with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions. Remember this moment. There will be a day, not soon, but it won't take very long either, when you'll ask yourself "why is this happening to me?", then remember that you brought this on yourself. You had a choice and you took the choice. But don't worry, I'm just a random snot-nosed geek trying to troll you. Not like I have the capabilities and means to do something that you would strongly care about. You take care now. I think I'll rest for today. You are engaging in threats b/c someone on a quasi-anonymous forum will NOT play games with you? |
|
|
|
You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.
Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you. You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..
I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me. Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves. Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be. Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here. I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck. Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor to research them or to look them up.. since they have mostly been dribble, from my perspective.. Also, I have little intent to spend my time with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
