Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

I think 270 is pretty hopeful tbh. what could possibly drive that?

[chessnut]

I think 270 is pretty hopeful tbh. what could possibly drive that?

but this is what is driving the price up?

china is not going to ban bitcoin. rejoice! they are bitcoin friendly, and the chinese may buy bitcoins using cash, if not exchanges which seem pretty stubborn.

[gentlemand]

I'm sure China will find another reason to tickle us up and down in ways we don't particularly enjoy. I'm not sure what they have in store next though.

[windjc]

This is such a weak recovery.

I set my first short at 478 and it hasn't even hit that one yet. I think I may pull the ones above 510, because it doesn't even seem like remotely possible that this rally gets above that. Unless there is some unexpected volume coming in that I don't know about.

I agree with TERA that there just is not enough money on the order books to keep this market afloat at these levels.

I was really hoping I could short all the way up to 525. I hope we can get at least one more leg up. At least a push to 500.

Come on men. Lets get out those train and moon pics! Now is the time.

well then I guess you should short a whole bunch right now   good luck  

Why would I short a whole lot right now? I have already set my orders. I just doubt that they will all fill. Or even most of them. If this consolidation doesn't break upward in the next few days, I might reassess and short lower.

I know you think we will be at 700 by sometime next week. But I am looking more at 270 at the intermediate term projection.

well If you think it's going to 270 and your orders wont fill..... logic says nows a good time to short.

no I am a bit more modest than 700 next week. but we are close to testing 510, you better bear that in mind 

I think 270 is pretty hopeful tbh. what could possibly drive that?

What has driven this entire downtrend? Gox? No. China? No.

Lack of money coming into exhanges with money leaving exchanges? Yes.

Unless this changes, the price is going lower. Its pretty damn simple.

[hmmmstrange]

Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?

I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project,  and freedom to choose my research topics.  And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting.

I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time.  I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why.  But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....)   

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

[chessnut]

What has driven this entire downtrend? Gox? No. China? No.

Lack of money coming into exhanges with money leaving exchanges? Yes.

Unless this changes, the price is going lower. Its pretty damn simple.

actually, it was china.... panic selling came after closure of third party deposits like clockwork for each exchange....

.... and now, it's not banned! price rallies!

[chessnut]

I'm sure China will find another reason to tickle us up and down in ways we don't particularly enjoy. I'm not sure what they have in store next though.

there are only two things china could be trying to do here, destroy bitcoin, or accumulate bitcoin.

..... if they wanted to destroy it, easy. BAN IT. you know what will happen. pop. every second they waste not banning it suggests they genuinely dont want to.

..... if they wanted to accumulate it, they cant bash it forever. the amount of panic selling they have caused is enough, and now the punch line, "no it's not banned - we cant ban it, we wont ban it"

[billyjoeallen]

I think 270 is pretty hopeful tbh. what could possibly drive that?

but this is what is driving the price up?

china is not going to ban bitcoin. rejoice! they are bitcoin friendly, and the chinese may buy bitcoins using cash, if not exchanges which seem pretty stubborn.

China doesn't have to ban Bitcoin to crash the market. They just have to remove more fiat than bitcoins. The market doesn't even have to crash. it could just grind down as supply of coins exceeds supply of new money. China could also fuel a recovery. unlikely but possible. The point is it's an unknown, a risk factor that weighs on the market.

There are other risk factors as well. Unless you have asymmetric information, now is the time to buy only if you want to hold for years.

[JorgeStolfi]

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

Hint: I am a professor of computer science.   Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of? 

And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary.   Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them, 

[JayJuanGee]

...

I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game...

<sigh> You already are.  You have been for a while.  See that ignore?  Clicky.  Stop wasting your time.  Read more, post less, ignore trolls - this is good advice meant with the very best of intentions.

Seriously, go outside and take a deep breath of fresh air.  And relax. 

Yeah, I usually do NOT call posters names, such as "perverted and twisted fuck."  That was a bit beyond my normal.  Regarding engaging another poster, we each have our differing styles.. but there are quite a few trolls in this thread.  I wonder why the forum doesnt have stricter policies to  control such...... besides the ignore button?

[chessnut]

It's a risky business, but we are looking for edges here. the deadline has come. If deposits are not closed in the next day or two, I dont see why we should expect them to. I do not see a motive. The chinese officials are not accumulating on the exchanges (if that's what you believe...) so why would that help them?

... and if they are, then there IS fiat on the exchanges.

[aminorex]

I wonder why the forum doesnt have stricter policies to  control such...... besides the ignore button?

one man's troll is another man's freedom fighter. ignore suffices, if you use it.

[dasein]

You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.

Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you.

You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..

I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar.
And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me.

Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.  

I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves.

Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.
If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be.
Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here.

I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck.

Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor.. especially with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions.

Remember this moment. There will be a day, not soon, but it won't take very long either, when you'll ask yourself "why is this happening to me?", then remember that you brought this on yourself. You had a choice and you took the choice.
But don't worry, I'm just a random snot-nosed geek trying to troll you. Not like I have the capabilities and means to do something that you would strongly care about.
You take care now. I think I'll rest for today.

[billyjoeallen]

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

Hint: I am a professor of computer science.   Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of? 

And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary.   Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them, 

Tax money is ultimately taken through threat of force. You can tap dance around that all you want, but it's the truth. Most private and public sector scammers really believe their own bull shit. Rationalizing the evil we do is part of the human condition.

[Newfeeling]

Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?

I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project,  and freedom to choose my research topics.  And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting.

I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time.  I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why.  But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....)   

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

If Bitcoin is as important and/or valuable as we think it to be...having someone take the opposing side like this won't hurt. Spending hundreds of hours researching and scrutinizing something that some of us think will be worth trillions is peanuts in comparison, and in my opinion: a valuable deed on behalf of Prof Stolfi.

I'm all for going to the moon and such, but having regular reality checks from people like Prof. Stolfi keeps my belly kool-aid free and prevents my head from going too far up into my colon.

[billyjoeallen]

ooh, dumps. who coulda saw that coming?

[JayJuanGee]

Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?

I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project,  and freedom to choose my research topics.  And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting.

I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time.  I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why.  But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....)   

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

If Bitcoin is as important and/or valuable as we think it to be...having someone take the opposing side like this won't hurt. Spending hundreds of hours researching and scrutinizing something that some of us think will be worth trillions is peanuts in comparison, and in my opinion: a valuable deed on behalf of Prof Stolfi.

I'm all for going to the moon and such, but having regular reality checks from people like Prof. Stolfi keeps my belly kool-aid free and prevents my head from going too far up into my colon.

You seem to be giving Jorge too much credit.  I do NOT have anything personal against him; b/c he is generally polite enough; however, frequently, he presents matters in a very biased way which does NOT seem to be academic quality.  I have NOTHING against bears and I have NOTHING against arguing the bear case.  However, frequently, Jorge will present these matters in a very tricky way and selectively choosing his data to make the negative case.. when there is obvious evidence he is excluding and choosing to leave out of his analysis. 

In my understanding an academic should attempt to remain neutral, and I believe that is what causes many to accuse Jorge of being funded and to be biased by his funding sources... in other words, he is claiming to be a neutral bear when he is NOT neutral.. but he does appear to be a bear.

[hmmmstrange]

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

Hint: I am a professor of computer science.   Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of?  

And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary.   Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them,  

With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed.

[JayJuanGee]

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

Hint: I am a professor of computer science.   Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of?  

And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary.   Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them,  

With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed.

NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt.  And to be fair, the problem with fiat is with most of the govts around the world and is NOT particular to Brazil.  Actually, a lot of countries in south america have been really screwed over the past 30 years by the IMF and forced into various kinds of cutting of social programs and specialization to serve the needs of the USA... however, several of the countries have stood up to those specialization pressures... and said screw paying back the loans through the IMF (I think Argentina is one of them) and have created more diversified and self-sustaining economies, which the USA considers a form of hostility.  Whatever the situation, there are a lot more injustices occurring through various forms of fiat manipulation rather than through bitcoin.

[TERA]

Expect an unexpected candle.