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29401  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 06:45:11 PM
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post. 

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out. 

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...

Does your valuation take into account the fact that Bitcoin mining as we know it will collapse very soon?

NO it does NOT. 

I did NOT know that interesting "fact." 

Can you explain when and how and why?  And, what are your sources for your information - b/c I have NOT seen any news about this happening.

A TH/s miner pretty well uses up an entire 15A circuit breaker in your home.

How many spare 15A breakers do you think there are in a home with a 100A service?

Yes, it is already known that mining is becoming more power intense and seems to be moving towards the bigger operations and likely towards the more wealthy performing the mining.  That is a known progression that some people (including miners) do NOT like, but that "fact" does NOT signify that mining will collapse any time soon - and if this is foreseen to be a longer-term problem, then likely actions are going to take place to address the matter so that this issue does NOT cause a collapse of bitcoin.  So, in essence, your post is full of disinformation by misstating facts and then exaggerating the significance of any facts that are contained therein.
29402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 06:35:30 PM
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

Yeah.. get your unsubstantiated digs in - and certainly, you are out of context, here, which seems to be your M.O. to spout out a bunch of shit, out of context.

Don't care to carry on a conversation with a delusional extremist.  I can't think of an opposing bear that would balance your strange and frankly outlandish claims.  The nearest reverse mirror image might be Igorr.  But igorr backs his claims up with some TA that does justify his point of view.   You just talk rubbish, over, and over again, a constant stream of verbal diarrhea.  The reason? I can only hazard a guess.  


So maybe you will put me on ignore, then? 

You seem to be resorting to name calling, again, without any real basis.  I sense that it is much easier for you to stick with easy terms and conclusions rather than responding to logic or reason or good faith attempts at communicating substance.

I cannot summarize what i do in this thread as succinctly as your conclusory assertions, but sometimes I am responding to other posts, such as yours, sometimes I am talking about my own personal decision-making process when trying to decide whether to buy or sell BTC and sometimes I am trying to predict the direction of BTC prices. 

Generally, I am NOT trying to persuade others whether they should buy or sell or hodl, even though sometimes those words are in my vocabulary and i do use them from time to time to asssert a sort of prediction of the best strategy at the moment.

I have no problem with bearish predictions, except to the extent that there may be some disinformation contained within some of the bearish posts (sometimes the disinformation seems purposeful and other times such disinformation may NOT have been purposefully propagated), especially in these last several months the bearish predictions seem to have been correct b/c there has been a downward price trend, as we all know. 

Really few of us can really predict the direction of BTC prices, yet some of us just do our best to attempt to decide what to do personally to account for the risk within our own investment priorities.  This thread can be helpful to get current and historical information - if one can get passed some of the FUD information - which generally seems a lot more prevalent on the long-term bear-side of the camp.  Short-term bear may be a different story about making a prediction that may be based on actual facts to the best that they can be known.

Regarding perma-bull name.  I am generally bullish in the long term, but NOT perma-anything.  If there are facts that get me to change my perspectives about bitcoin, then I will reconsider my investment and my investment strategies.



29403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 06:15:32 PM
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post. 

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out. 

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...

Does your valuation take into account the fact that Bitcoin mining as we know it will collapse very soon?

NO it does NOT. 

I did NOT know that interesting "fact." 

Can you explain when and how and why?  And, what are your sources for your information - b/c I have NOT seen any news about this happening.
29404  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:41:49 PM
How awesome it would be if this was a successful retest of $340. 

I thought that you said that you were back to being all in BTC?  Did you get into Fiat again at some time?

I specifically said I was NOT all in, just cautiously optimistic. There was a four hour cross on the MACD  that had the potential of causing a pop, and I wanted to be in a position to SELL that spike. The Next rally is extremely unlikely to start immediately after the lowest point is hit. There will be months of consolidation.

Surely, it is possible that I missed some of your posts, so thanks for the clarification.
29405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:40:06 PM
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

Yeah.. get your unsubstantiated digs in - and certainly, you are out of context, here, which seems to be your M.O. to spout out a bunch of shit, out of context.
29406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:37:39 PM
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post. 

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out. 

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...
29407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:26:00 PM
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Based on the totality of the circumstances... included but not limited to payment system, storage of value, public ledger and decentralized innovative protocol that is expanding its reach globally.. and a market cap of only about 5 billion - even though much lesser important innovations have much larger market caps...
29408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:06:23 PM
pretty sure it is Sunday or it just finished an hr ago in China but you know what's great on sunday ... BACON

Bacon is great on any day.  Making me hungry just thinking about it.
29409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:05:32 PM
Quote
Sellers spin it up and Buyers spin it down...an idiot is someone who doesn't spin it at all.

You have a perverted sense of the world.  Maybe you have only engaged in internet relationships?

Interesting...so what exactly are you trying to sell me here?

He's spinning down. He must be trying to buy you something.

That's another way of putting it, but Aminorex, you may be too abstract for pjviitas - since s/he seems to have a more straight forward view of the way the world operates.
29410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.
29411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 04:53:55 PM
How awesome it would be if this was a successful retest of $340. 

I thought that you said that you were back to being all in BTC?  Did you get into Fiat again at some time?
29412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 07:57:21 AM
Also wasnt there some defiant statements from Huobi about NOT complying with china regulations or that trades are going to take place underground if china keeps pushing for banning or too many restrictions on bitcoin, and that seems to just drag things out more than resolving matters.
As far as I can tell with Google Translate, the note  now on their site  (dated 2014-04-11 16:45:16 local time) says that

(1) they believe that the aim of the December decree was to prevent abuses like money laundering, and they are totally willing to cooperate with the government on that, they are already doing a lot in that area with customer identification, reporting large movements etc; and that if they are forced to shut down, those abuses will move overseas where they will be harder to police;

(2) they have received closure notices from two banks (ICBC and Merchants Bank), they understand that each bank is interpreting the PBoC order differently, with different dates, so perhaps some of the banks may continue to work with them.

I think these views are consistent with the theory that the new "PBoC circular" did not originate with PBoC (which does not seem worried about those "virtual stamps" anymore).  Bitcoin is no longer a threat to the monetary policy, which is the PBoC's main concern.  But is still a potential tool for money laundering, bribing, subversion, etc..

IIRC, the December decree was said to be the joint decision of five ministeries/agencies, of which PBoC was just one.  I think that the March decision, to tighten the December decree by closing the bank accounts, came from the law enforcement and national security agencies, and was issued through the PBoC only because the banks are subordinated to the PBoC.

Also, point (2) above may explain why the price bounced back to the level of Apr/09.  The previous note of Apr/10, about the ICBC closure, implied that all  bank accounts would be closed, with no negotiation possible, thus confirming the Caixin article.  This note restores the uncertainty of last Friday by suggesting that some bank accounts may remain open.  The timing of the last drop (07:00 am local time) and the  bounceback (11:00 am local time) seems consistent with the timing of the note plus insider trading.

Your interpretation seems to make quite a bit of sense to outline what seems to be the current situation, which really does seem to come back to the notion that at least on Huobi, they are going to continue to attempt to operate, and they seem to have a variety of options to continue to operate - however, at any moment their funding avenues could dry up.  Then we get to the next FUD and speculated price drop, again (like ground hog's day) that China is banning bitcoin. 

These kinds of uncertainties could drag out for several months... and in the meantime the bitcoin network will continue to expand.. and maybe by the time bitcoin is really and truly banned in china, it will be too late  - or some other change in bitcoin land may evolve in order that such news is NOT so detrimental to BTC prices?
29413  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 13, 2014, 07:34:46 AM

I believe that you need to be careful NOT to do anything so radical that you would change the course of history.. b/c then history may NOT play out in the way you expect....


Good point.
It's way too easy to do major damage to the primary timeline.

I know.  I got a bit of a chuckle out of that b/c if you were to acquire nearly all of the bitcoins, then that may cause bitcoins NOT to prosper b/c others need to have them as well.  Otherwise they are NOT worth much... but surely you could use bitcoins to accumulate a lot of other assets too... b/c supposedly you would have a pretty good idea about what was going to happen.. if you don't get too carried away.
29414  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 13, 2014, 07:31:18 AM
Sounds like fun.  Smiley
You would need to talk Satoshi into some major changes, since back then only a "few million" BTC existed.

Bitcoin mining became competitive only during the early 2013. You can go back to 2009, stack up all the mining rigs and possess 90% of the total hash power. By 2013 January, you will be in the possession of 10 million+ coins.  Grin

You could also be the one to buy Gox from the founder and completely change BTC history for the better.

Mark seems like such a fuck up, that he would still find a way to screw up bitcoin.
29415  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 13, 2014, 07:28:31 AM
Sounds like fun.  Smiley
You would need to talk Satoshi into some major changes, since back then only a "few million" BTC existed.

Bitcoin mining became competitive only during the early 2013. You can go back to 2009, stack up all the mining rigs and possess 90% of the total hash power. By 2013 January, you will be in the possession of 10 million+ coins.  Grin

I believe that you need to be careful NOT to do anything so radical that you would change the course of history.. b/c then history may NOT play out in the way you expect, and then the journey would be for naught.

I think you could probably quietly accumulate several thousands of bitcoins and even several millions of dollars of fiat without making any major alterations of history...   Though innevitably some of the history is going to change b/c of your knowledge and then your actions.. but by the time that it changes, hopefully you would be in a good position.. to kick back and play whatever role you envision yourself within.
29416  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 13, 2014, 06:54:08 AM
Okay 3 BTC for a trip to 2009 it is? I'll pay first (chronologically), I'll do it immediately when I arrive in 2009 after I have acquired a gigantic amount of Bitcoins.

That makes no sense. Everyone would like to do the same thing by paying 3 BTC. Then what is the use, if all the Bitcoins you amass after going back to the 2009 is only going to last till the next customer makes use of the same facility?

Great point:
One customer only and the price will need to be much higher.  Cheesy

Yeah.. double the price, and I am o.k. with any date that you could arrange in 2010.. that's fine...  even if I have to travel back in my old body.. would be nice to get the extra bonus of shaving a few years off my age, as well.   

You sound a little inexperienced with these time travel matters.  Are there any guarantees that I would arrive in one piece and arrive on the anticipated requested date?  And, I guess that is why it may be better to pay after arriving rather than being sent on the journey and not knowing whether I would get what paid for.

If you accidentally send me back to October 2013, I probably could do pretty well with that date, too, and it would be well worth the 6 BTC.  I would just have to hold back keeping my mouth shut about all the things that I know.. It would probably screw up history.. but what da fuck..   

One thing is that I would NOT want to get back to whatever date that i am being sent, and find that there are two of me b/c I may have troubles trying to convince that other me about our strategy.  He's a bit skeptical of things.
29417  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:55:51 AM
It's a texas show down!

I was expecting some trade/showdown competition between the bears and the bulls over this weekend.. like a real battle to take advantage of whatever remains of the fud in a timely manner.....

Surely, that battle could still occur.. but it is also possible that we may be left in a sort of limbo-land state until on or after 4/15 before we get some kind of price action. 

Also wasnt there some defiant statements from Huobi about NOT complying with china regulations or that trades are going to take place underground if china keeps pushing for banning or too many restrictions on bitcoin, and that seems to just drag things out more than resolving matters.    The chinese are under some stress right now with their currency too... .. even though I get the sense that bitcoin is small potatos compared with their currency issues.

I've got enough fiat in my account now to make some additional BTC purchases... but I am NOT sure how long I can last if BTC prices were to keep this downward trickling momentum for another month or two..  really the last two months have been the worst of the unrelenting downward price trickle. Probably, I would have to stop buying BTC at some point.. even though coins would be getting "cheaper" and "cheaper."   

A problem with the last two months has been that I have kept thinking that we are at the bottom price, and then we get further drops.. mostly I was thinking that since about $610. I certainly think that coins are cheap now - but I would be kicking myself if I continue to buy in this particular price range, and then we get even more cheaper coins at some point in the next week or possibly two weeks...   But then I will also kick myself I do NOT exhaust my current fiat at this price, especially if we are NOT going to be returning to this price after the ChooChoo MO FO comes about.
29418  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 05:05:19 AM
A candle is coming.

Red

or

Green?

29419  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 13, 2014, 12:43:35 AM
my ta says taht btc will be at 600$ in 2 months.

I think that there is a lot of pent up demand for BTC and accordingly, the price will likely get to $600 sooner...  However, there are quite a few uncertainties in the space, too... that could explain why it could take a couple months to return to $600. 
29420  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 12:38:57 AM
In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

To be honest I don't see a double bottom on the charts either Cheesy   (unless you are talking about the 1 min charts)

to be a double bottom, I would think we need a sustained bounce off 340 again.  Then you will see a strong uptrend. 

I see a triple bottom on the daily 18 dec/ 25 feb / 11 apr

I need a bathing suit picture, otherwise, i do not believe it.
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