I don't have any clue wtf to do now.
I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."
I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"
I put almost my entire savings at 480
Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.
So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?
You already did the wrong thing by going all in or all out.. in my thinking. You have to chose what to do based on your own risk profile and goals and diversification with other investments. Even if you buy all back in now, there is no guarantee that the price is gonna continue to go up and you may lose again. I started buying at $1200 and my average buy in price is $613-ish including fees. Sure I am still in the red, and I have more fiat to buy more.. but at times I have felt very stretched.. so I am glad that the market is finally going back up... but still NO guarantees with any of this. I would begin a more sensible strategy that works for you and that you do NOT engage in panic buying or panic selling.. your strategy may differ from mine, but you need to find the one that works for you. |
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Should I wire an additional 4.6 grand?
What do you think??
Sure. Do it. All in. Now. I'm sure it takes a couple of days, no? No one really seems to know, but it looks fairly promising that we may be going up for a little while, rather than down.. but I've been saying that since $610-ish. |
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NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt.
Actually we have been fortunate enough for the past 25 years to enjoy a fairly good level of freedom of speech, arguably better than Americans. There are cases of libel laws used to silence journalists and bloggers, but they usually come from corrupt lower officials, mostly opposition, and private citizens. The federal government (from both parties) has been admirably tolerant of criticism (and the main media have used and abused that freedom against Lula and Dilma). In fact, most of my public testimonials and press interviews about electronic voting have been criticism of the equipment which is the joy and pride of the Electoral Justice, whose president is a Supreme Court judge; and the criticism basically implies that the Electoral Justice is incompentent if or worse. And in my tweets I have often and harshly critized both the São Paulo education secretariat, the Federal education minister (now Dilma's Chief of Staff) and several other ministries, the Supreme Court and the Judiciary in general, and several other miscellaneous authorities. I have been mostly ignored, of course, but I never felt any pressure to shut up; and ditto for uncountable other critics. (Hm, after writing this list I am now starting to worry...  ) Thx for the explanation of your circumstances... I would NOT know enough to be able to really make any strong arguments, but I know that several posters here, including myself, question your objectivity in regard to your supposed scholarly work related to bitcoin and your presentation of various conclusions here. Surely I do NOT expect necessarily that you need to explore all options b/c your research could lead you to bear conclusions; however, there just seem to be so many instances in which I have seen and other have pointed out your renditions that seem to be purposefully deceptive and we know that you are smarter than that.. that you know some basic or material facts that are central to the question that you are asking but then you remain dabbling on the fringe with some kinds of extreme facts, even though those facts may be true, they are NOT the main motivating forces. Well, anyhow, I am glad for you on a professional level if you feel that you are NOT censored in any way even when you are being fairly extensively critical. |
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As to "freedom to choose my research topics":
How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?
Hint: I am a professor of computer science. Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of? And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary. Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them, With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed. NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt. And to be fair, the problem with fiat is with most of the govts around the world and is NOT particular to Brazil. Actually, a lot of countries in south america have been really screwed over the past 30 years by the IMF and forced into various kinds of cutting of social programs and specialization to serve the needs of the USA... however, several of the countries have stood up to those specialization pressures... and said screw paying back the loans through the IMF (I think Argentina is one of them) and have created more diversified and self-sustaining economies, which the USA considers a form of hostility. Whatever the situation, there are a lot more injustices occurring through various forms of fiat manipulation rather than through bitcoin. Nobody forced them to take out the loans in the first place. They screwed themselves over. "Those asshole lenders, they actually expect me to pay them back." Gimme a break. These third world countries were begging for loans and agreed to conditions. Then they balked at honoring the conditions after they already agreed to them. The they begged to renegotiate the terms, got the new terms and balked at them too! I agree that the IMF crowd are glorified loan sharks, but if you borrow from loan sharks you should be prepared to suffer the consequences. EDIT: and if you think Argentina's economy is self-sustaining, then you are delusional. It's a basket case. I don't really want to get into a long debate, but in essence we could probably agree that there are a lot of complications with various actors in the region and even though I have studied some of this (many years ago), I know enough to realize that there are patterns of pressure from the USA intervention and some countries have been better than others in dealing with these matters. Regarding your last point about Argentina, I do NOT claim to be any kind of effort - but I was making the assertion that when they refused to pay their IMF loan, that caused a lot of additional pressures on them. But NONE of the countries really want to be export countries and only produce some low paid product and then to be dependent upon the USA to dictate their situation(s). Whether they are successful or NOT may be another story with additional intricacies, if we were to delve into the specifics, and I am sure there are on the ground people who are much more qualified than either of us to give us some of these facts. We probably agree that in the end, bitcoin can have a variety of liberating aspects for the people of many of these countries in south america |
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As to "freedom to choose my research topics":
How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?
Hint: I am a professor of computer science. Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of? And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary. Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them, With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed. NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt. And to be fair, the problem with fiat is with most of the govts around the world and is NOT particular to Brazil. Actually, a lot of countries in south america have been really screwed over the past 30 years by the IMF and forced into various kinds of cutting of social programs and specialization to serve the needs of the USA... however, several of the countries have stood up to those specialization pressures... and said screw paying back the loans through the IMF (I think Argentina is one of them) and have created more diversified and self-sustaining economies, which the USA considers a form of hostility. Whatever the situation, there are a lot more injustices occurring through various forms of fiat manipulation rather than through bitcoin. |
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Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?
I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project, and freedom to choose my research topics. And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting. I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time. I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why. But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....)  As to "freedom to choose my research topics": How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors? If Bitcoin is as important and/or valuable as we think it to be...having someone take the opposing side like this won't hurt. Spending hundreds of hours researching and scrutinizing something that some of us think will be worth trillions is peanuts in comparison, and in my opinion: a valuable deed on behalf of Prof Stolfi. I'm all for going to the moon and such, but having regular reality checks from people like Prof. Stolfi keeps my belly kool-aid free and prevents my head from going too far up into my colon. You seem to be giving Jorge too much credit. I do NOT have anything personal against him; b/c he is generally polite enough; however, frequently, he presents matters in a very biased way which does NOT seem to be academic quality. I have NOTHING against bears and I have NOTHING against arguing the bear case. However, frequently, Jorge will present these matters in a very tricky way and selectively choosing his data to make the negative case.. when there is obvious evidence he is excluding and choosing to leave out of his analysis. In my understanding an academic should attempt to remain neutral, and I believe that is what causes many to accuse Jorge of being funded and to be biased by his funding sources... in other words, he is claiming to be a neutral bear when he is NOT neutral.. but he does appear to be a bear. |
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... I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game... <sigh> You already are. You have been for a while. See that ignore? Clicky. Stop wasting your time. Read more, post less, ignore trolls - this is good advice meant with the very best of intentions.  Seriously, go outside and take a deep breath of fresh air. And relax.  Yeah, I usually do NOT call posters names, such as "perverted and twisted fuck." That was a bit beyond my normal. Regarding engaging another poster, we each have our differing styles.. but there are quite a few trolls in this thread. I wonder why the forum doesnt have stricter policies to control such...... besides the ignore button? |
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You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.
Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you. You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..
I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me. Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves. Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be. Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here. I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck. Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor.. especially with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions. Remember this moment. There will be a day, not soon, but it won't take very long either, when you'll ask yourself "why is this happening to me?", then remember that you brought this on yourself. You had a choice and you took the choice. But don't worry, I'm just a random snot-nosed geek trying to troll you. Not like I have the capabilities and means to do something that you would strongly care about. You take care now. I think I'll rest for today. You are engaging in threats b/c someone on a quasi-anonymous forum will NOT play games with you? |
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You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.
Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you. You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..
I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me. Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves. Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be. Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here. I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck. Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor to research them or to look them up.. since they have mostly been dribble, from my perspective.. Also, I have little intent to spend my time with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions. |
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2 hours left before this wedge times out and we definitely will have a new 5 min chart pattern, whatever that may be. clearly there is an uptrend in place with jumps. the uptrend rate is nigh constant since post-ATH low, while jumps are of decreasing size, and have an increasing probability of being negative in sum over a rolling window as time wears on. any such finite-time singularity suggests a trend change is immanent.
I'm rolling my buy ladder down and my sell ladder up, widening the steps, in anticipation of a possible burst of volatility.
In other words? seems that you are anticipating prices to go down in the next "burst"? BTCUSD already outperformed my expectations by exceeding my wednesday target overnight. I no longer have a view, until something new materializes. When I have no view, I try to scoop pennies by market making, but I only look at the screen every couple of hours during working days, so I am not aggressively making market. If I think vol is likely to rise, I spread out my bids and asks. Blame me for being a noob... but when you say "vol" are you referring to volatility or volume or both or somthing else? I am NOT sure which to guess.... |
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You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.
Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you. You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..
I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me. Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact. I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves. |
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[ ... ]
He is the most sophisticated of all trolls; he instills doubt so deep the sheep don’t can't question. [ ... ] Uh, yes, the probabilities I posted are based on the assumption that you folks will not manage to drive me away from this thread. If I were to stop posting here, bitcoin would immediately shoot to the moon and beyond, of course.  You bears must have a bear poole or something going on... b/c one bear would NOT be sufficient to have any effect on the price of bitcoin. Maybe we need a pic of a bear poole? |
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2 hours left before this wedge times out and we definitely will have a new 5 min chart pattern, whatever that may be. clearly there is an uptrend in place with jumps. the uptrend rate is nigh constant since post-ATH low, while jumps are of decreasing size, and have an increasing probability of being negative in sum over a rolling window as time wears on. any such finite-time singularity suggests a trend change is immanent.
I'm rolling my buy ladder down and my sell ladder up, widening the steps, in anticipation of a possible burst of volatility.
In other words? seems that you are anticipating prices to go down in the next "burst"? |
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Yes.. you have a way of denigrating... Whether this is a debate or NOT... maybe you are attempting to lure me into your various stupid-ass topics one by one.
O.k. I will bite a little bit.
Currently almost everything is pegged to the dollar, and the dollar is the most stable value point, at the moment in part because in its various forms it has nearly 20 trillion in various kinds of circulation.
These value point and reference points can change over time and they likely will change over time. As bitcoin gains more market capitalization and more liquidation possibilities, there will be less need to peg it to the dollar or to value it as compared with the dollar. Part of whether there will be a need to continue to peg BTC to the dollar will depend upon adoption levels of BTC - likely at least several years into the future in my thinking before BTC will NOT be pegged to some other currency - whether the dollar or some other currency.
Five years from now, we may be living in a different world, or if the dollar expectantly crashes, which is possible but not likely in the next several years in my thinking, unless there is a viable replacement, then we may see BTC pegged to some other currency... or if BTC were to achieve a trillion dollar market cap, then it may NOT need to be pegged to anything... possibly... It is also possible that more than a trillion dollar market cap will be needed before we can have a world with BTC that is NOT pegged to some other asset or currency... maybe $10 trillion in today's valuations would do?
I was telling if USD would suffer a meltdown, then BTC would follow and you tried to insult me with all kinds of ways for saying it and trying to ridicule what I was saying. And now you are saying that this could change in the future?!? Yes, it could, everything could happen. The messiah could come down to earth and save the world of half-witted little brats like you. But it isn't happening right now isn't it? You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself. Now go back to the first post that you tried so hard to ridicule and you will see me saying this: If bitcoin would get it's value elsewhere, for instance a major wheat supplier would accept BTC by itself, then there could be a different story. But right now, we don't even have small online stores, that want to accept BTC by itself, without BitPay, meaning without the support of USD. But you were too dumb to read that, eh? All your concentration went on trying to insult me because I might bring forward some flaws of BTC that you consider as holy. You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules.. |
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Aaand... we have another weak attempt to insult, without actually trying to debate the initial point that was made here.
I don't need to do anything but to tell you that you are wrong I'm reading some of the most stupid arguments i've ever witnessed on this forum. Did you even think at all when posting? It is a currency/asset which have had a ROI of 120,000 and nobody still barely have a clue where it is going, OF COURSE it will be volatile. Why can't you understand volatility will be reduced alot if it were to succeed It's kinda if I were to make a drink in my basement that would sell better then coca cola and wonder why i'm not a billionaire yet No offence though, its all neighborhood And more some weak attempts to insult + some weird rant that has nothing to do with the subject in question: ...............troll non-sense..................... Yes, the troll is just trying to continue to find excuses to repeat his asinine points over and over. |
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China trying to go higher.
I was in the bear camp at £300. I hang my head in shame. It has survived China censorship and centrally controlled free market capitalism. Never again will I doubt, The Bitcoin.  |
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Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:
[ ... ]
O.k. You are very selective with the period of time that you selected. Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014. [ ... ] I already posted a full complete graph of that. Twice. With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.
"FUD" as in "Facts and Undeniable Data"? I think that I already made my point, and the fact that you are even misquoting FUD reflects worse on you and your motives. |
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Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.
If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes (I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol ) Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC? Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters. At least try to debate against my arguments, not just make another failed attempt to insult me. Have a cigarette, read a book, make some notes, relieve yourself from the anxiety of not getting rich without any work or education, and then try really hard. Please.. Yeah.. YOU would love to drag a variety of posters down your bullshit superficial and already debunked framings of the situation. That is NOT an intellectual exercise or a meaningful debate, it is a waste of time. I already know your MO. As soon as anybody attempts to reasonably discuss your assertions with you, then you will either change the facts or change the topic or come up with some other bullshit highly speculative scenario that has little to NO basis in reality. In conclusion, largely a waste of time to accept many of your framings of the situation b/c you are far from being genuine in any kind of attempt to deal in the real world and to account for actual facts. The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD. To those merchants, BTC is useless as a currency because it's not able to keep price stability. Only use they have for BTC is for marketing reasons and a possibility to lure in those who worship BTC. Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.Yes.. you have a way of denigrating... Whether this is a debate or NOT... maybe you are attempting to lure me into your various stupid-ass topics one by one. O.k. I will bite a little bit. Currently almost everything is pegged to the dollar, and the dollar is the most stable value point, at the moment in part because in its various forms it has nearly 20 trillion in various kinds of circulation. These value point and reference points can change over time and they likely will change over time. As bitcoin gains more market capitalization and more liquidation possibilities, there will be less need to peg it to the dollar or to value it as compared with the dollar. Part of whether there will be a need to continue to peg BTC to the dollar will depend upon adoption levels of BTC - likely at least several years into the future in my thinking before BTC will NOT be pegged to some other currency - whether the dollar or some other currency. Five years from now, we may be living in a different world, or if the dollar expectantly crashes, which is possible but not likely in the next several years in my thinking, unless there is a viable replacement, then we may see BTC pegged to some other currency... or if BTC were to achieve a trillion dollar market cap, then it may NOT need to be pegged to anything... possibly... It is also possible that more than a trillion dollar market cap will be needed before we can have a world with BTC that is NOT pegged to some other asset or currency... maybe $10 trillion in today's valuations would do? |
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This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.
The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.
The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.
The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.
I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems. and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%. Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it. Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction". We are in a bear market because good news are disregard, it will be the other way around when we will resume the bull market Odds are we will dip again soon, it is way more likely than the scenario where we are already coming back up but at some point we will come back up and it will be crazy There is a lot of potential for a big negative event such as the mtgox shut down but there is at least as much potential for a big positive event and I feel that we can overcome most big negative events when positive events will have a positive effect long term; the potential is so huge, 450$/BTC feels like a steal to me $450 should be a steal, but it's not. The investing public is fickle. Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. There is no certainty, but investing based on "feelings" usually doesn't pay as well and investing based on asymmetric information (insider trading). If you have a well diversified portfolio of more than $100,000 dollars, now would be a good time to buy a little, but obviously not as good of a time as two days ago @ $340. The risk is that you might have to wait a long time for your bet to pay off.. How long can you afford to wait? I think Big Money is buying bitcoin right now, but they are buying off exchange and they are buying below market from miners. Those coins are just as likely to get dumped on the exchange for a guaranteed profit as they are to be held if some new disaster strikes. Buying right now may be a good long term investment, but it's an extremely risky short term speculation. What if the Overstock stockholders pressure the CEO to stop accepting bitcoin or something similar happens? John Maynard Keynes was a flawed economist in my opinion, but he was one of the very few to actually make a fortune in the markets. He said "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Many people have been force liquidated already and it's quite possible many more will be in the future. Bitcoin is a fantastic asset, but it is not worth risking insolvency over. We need financially healthy enthusiasts to form the base for the next rally, not bug-eyed gamblers. I want bitcoin to go strait up from here, but I've been in this game for over three years and my experience tells my it's unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. TERA is an excellent trader who makes money in bull and bear markets. She understands order flows better than I do. When she says she thinks this probably isn't a final bottom, I believe her. I used to play poker and I discovered that it's quite possible to make money in a game even if you know you aren't the best player. You just have to know who that player is and you have to stay out of his way. The one thing I know for sure in this market is that I'm not the best player. I may not even be a good player. I've learned a lot, but perhaps the most important thing I've learned is how little I know. Being ignorant isn't dangerous. What is dangerous is being ignorant and unaware of your ignorance. People are likely going to be insolvent before this is over. Intellectually I know that it's ultimately a good thing and has to happen, but I'm not quite calloused enough to enjoy it. Maybe that's why I gave up poker. Why don't you place your current predictions into the rpeitila prediction box? in order that we can see how your various probability allocations stack up. |
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Dreamspark:
How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?"
Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices. Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution. Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC.
If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg. And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story.
What made you arrive at 3k BTC (at today's exchange rate $1.38M, or 1M Euro) as the cut-off point for living off passive income? That 3k BTC number was kind of floating in my head based on one of my recent posts in another thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg6207547#msg6207547I do NOT really mean that number as a cut-off point b/c I certainly realize that there are a lot of different people with a variety of expectations pertaining to how much passive income they would need to live comfortably... or even within their previous income / lifestyle range (more or less). I understand that some people can feel that they are living fairly comfortable off of $10K per year, and others would feel impoverished if they were living off of $100K per year. The 3k BTC number was kind of within my current considerations of an aspiration at least in today's circumstances and based on some of my own personal considerations. |
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