Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[niothor]

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. 

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

[Bronstad]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol   )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

[roslinpl]

And 500 $ is so close that I can bet with someone will we hit 500 in next 24h.
Odds are : 1/10 we will.  10/1 we will not.

[JayJuanGee]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
 

O.k.  You are very selective with the period of time that you selected. 

With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.

Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014.  You should reach the opposite conclusion that Bitcoin actually deflationary rather than inflationary.. which is likely going to continue into the long term future.. so long as bitcoin survives... and really may NOT be too fair to pick any currency, such as bitcoin over its adoption phase to be reflective of long term stability.  The adoption phase number (in which we currently are in) are going to be quite a bit skewed in the deflationary direction - much more than later.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[niothor]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
 

O.k.  You are very selective with the period of time that you selected. 

With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.

Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014.  You should reach the opposite conclusion that Bitcoin actually deflationary rather than inflationary.. which is likely going to continue into the long term future.. so long as bitcoin survives... and really may NOT be too fair to pick any currency, such as bitcoin over its adoption phase to be reflective of long term stability.  The adoption phase number (in which we currently are in) are going to be quite a bit skewed in the deflationary direction - much more than later.

He's a bear , a real thought to be extinct cavebear

[wachtwoord]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
 

Those are the reported inflation rates for Europe and the US at least. The reality is much much higher.

[rpietila]

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. 

I am sure you can make some very profitable bets with the fellow posters, who have given quite different odds!

I propose geometric mean, such that:
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
=> sqrt(0.01*0.7) = 8.4%.

You pay 1 / 8.4% = 11.952 units if you lose
He pays 1 / 91.6% = 1.092 units if you win.

Normalized, this is 10.948 : 1.

Both people in the wager have about 8 times better odds than they estimated as current, wonder why there is so little of this!  

[aminorex]

Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH.

That's about where I expect the capitulation to go after the next bubble deflates.

[Feri22]

I was always wondering how much weight has the increasing mining difficulty on the price...it looks like many people here are completely ignoring this factor, they look mostly on TA...i know some guys already wrote the hash-rate is following the BTC/USD price not the other way around, but i don't it is true anymore. At least it doesn't look that way, it looks like miners almost don't give a fuc*k about price decline. Why is that?..i think that most of miners are real BTC believers and they are long-term holders...i actualy believe that this growing network is the main reason, that BTC will have to rise again in value, because it is just getting harder and harder and more expensive to mine BTC...what do you think? Do you think the price has to catch up with hash rate / difficulty eventually?


 
Date:                    Difficulty         Change             Hash rate
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018           32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060           29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339           35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766           19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013       31,256,961           19.47%   223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013       26,162,876           22.63%   187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013   21,335,329           10.32%   152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013   19,339,258           23.92%   138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013   15,605,633           28.41%    111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013   12,153,412           8.64%    86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013   11,187,257           11.03%    80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013   10,076,293           12.28%    72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013   8,974,296           16.96%    64,241 GH/s

[billyjoeallen]

This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.

The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.

The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.

The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.

and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods

There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%.  Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it. 

Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction".

[JorgeStolfi]

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[boumalo]

This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.

The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.

The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.

The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.

and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods

There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%.  Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it. 

Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction".

We are in a bear market because good news are disregard, it will be the other way around when we will resume the bull market

Odds are we will dip again soon, it is way more likely than the scenario where we are already coming back up but at some point we will come back up and it will be crazy

There is a lot of potential for a big negative event such as the mtgox shut down but there is at least as much potential for a big positive event and I feel that we can overcome most big negative events when positive events will have a positive effect long term; the potential is so huge, 450$/BTC feels like a steal to me

[rpietila]

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Why do you waste your time in the speculation forum then? There are other threads where the research is made:

The problem I see here is that, while a great savings/investment plan, it seems to be assuming that BTC will just keep going up indefinitely at some radical rate of growth.

Here is a log chart of bitcoin's historical market capitalization, along with what I refer to as its (adoption-based) "Metcalfe Value."  This chart empirically shows two things:

(a) bitcoin's market cap has grown roughly proportional to the square of these two chosen measures of "adoption."
(b) "adoption" (based on these two measures) has grown roughly exponentially for five years. 

Will bitcoin adoption continue to grow?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol   )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

At least try to debate against my arguments, not just make another failed attempt to insult me.
Have a cigarette, read a book, make some notes, relieve yourself from the anxiety of not getting rich without any work or education, and then try really hard. Please..

[Bronstad]

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

That's no bear mask, that's a full on troll-mask. Just completely giving up on the "researching" schtick I see.

[Tzupy]

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I see a problem with these guesstimates. A bottom of around 300$ is not really bearish.
And from 300$ within 6 months it's quite possible to go over 1000$.
The really bearish scenario is with a bottom below 200$, then it's going to be difficult to reach above 1000$ in 2014.

[akujin]

I wouldn't get too cocky if I were you guys...
I've just finished watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi2thGzzNSs and I realized that their government could easily initiate a 51% attack  
Once bitcoin start hurting their economy, I wouldn't be surprised if they do something like that.
So basically, right now, they are like a cat playing with a cockroach..  
I conclude that bitcoin still has a few more years left to live... unless you piss this cat reaally hard 

[JayJuanGee]

Loaded is offering a reward for information leading to the recovery of personal and client funds stored at MtGox:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=489950.0

EDIT: Loaded is a great whale, for those that don't know.  

I'm pretty surprised to learn he still has a sizable amount there. There was plenty of chance to arbitrage and get out in the last bubble, even with profit.

It was not sizable enough to warrant a flight to Japan. However, it is sizable enough to ruin my weekend.

Loaded has disappeared since his weekend got ruined by gox. Hope he's alright

I'm sure he's fine. Loosing money is always upsetting and I like loaded but he has plenty of coins to look at and cry, same cant be said for a lot of other people who lost their entire life savings.

Dreamspark: 

How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?"

Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices.    Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution.  Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC.

If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg.  And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story.

[JorgeStolfi]

I am sure you can make some very profitable bets with the fellow posters, who have given quite different odds!

Indeed, but (as I wrote some time ago) I never bet  more than a pizza and beer, and that only when I am fairly certain that I am right and the other guy is wrong, and I know why.  (Some 10 years ago I bet with a few net friends that the Voynich manuscript was in Chinese or some other Asian language. The bet is still undecided.  Once I met one of them in person and offered to pay the bet, just to "clean up the account", but he gallantly refused.  After that, I bet wiith a physicist here in Brazil that the Gran Sasso faster-than-light neutrinos were just expermental error.  I still have to collect that one, he lives 500 km from here. I feel that I have taken too much risk already for this decade  )