Another force, which may or not be one of the whales, is made up of those capable to launch a DDoS attack to manipulate price.
Just now there's a 20s - 30s trading lag on MtGox, while volume is very low, IMO there is a DDoS ongoing at MtGox. Purpose unknown yet.

I see a buildup of buy orders as I write this, but the price is kind of stationary yet.
There is one guy with a 1,000 BTC buy order, he places it then withdraws it, with no chance to really buy.
Now he firmly placed it at 91.8 where he should be able to buy.
At this moment, a 10k dump would drive the price down to 88. Juicy target...
PS. this is on MtGox.
PS2. I am not interested in long term, I know that we are on the deflating side of a bubble.
But on short term, price can still go up, if someone really wants to buy now (for reasons I don't understand).

During the last month, every time the volume was so low, the price trend was slowly downwards, ending with a significant drop.
Maybe this time it will be different, but I doubt that. So I placed my buy order at 80.xx and am waiting.

Another pump-up, wtf? I was expecting another drop to 80, that's what usually happens after a large drop and a lull.
Oh well, this bear had to buy at a loss, but managed to jump on the train...

It seems that we have already hit a local bottom, which is strange.
Usually within a large dump there's a mid-drop rally, then further drops.
Either it's going to slowly go up, or we should expect a new large dump. I just don't know which...

It would take a 26,300 BTC dump to take the price below 80.
I guess we'll know tomorrow. I just cancelled my buy order at 86.xx. What if it drops below 80 tomorrow?

'To the moon'? Only in the BTC-E trollbox, usually for LTC.
No, if it hits 80 it might move between 80 and 83 for 1-2 days.
Then if the market is still bearish, we'll go down to 70s.
If the buying whale decides it's time to make a move, we'll see 100 again.

PS. We have a small trend reversal.

The bottom of the current drop may be at 86 or at 80, depends on how bearish the sellers are today.
I placed a small buy order at 86.xx, but I believe it's eventually going down to 80.xx.

Funny, but no: as long as there's a large gap between MtGox and other exchanges, any massive dump on MtGox will reflect immediately on other exchanges.

Quoting:  'The upside target area is $110-$115'.
Really? Tell this to the dancing bears! 

No it didn't, this is the sharpest drop in a month. There are buy walls at 86 and 85, but unless a whale buys massively this could go down to 80.
Some people are cancelling their buy orders at 85-86, so those walls may not hold if panic continues.
I'm not placing any buy order until the price stabilizes, it's just too risky.

PS. A small rebound to 91, remains to be seen if this is the trend reversal. It holds for now between 88.5 and 89.

PS2. Based on analysis of charts, this rebound seems to be a bull trap. I expect another drop to 85-86 in a couple of hours.
So I'm not buying now. Of course, I may be wrong, and this could be the trend reversal.

I can tell you what's the price trend right now on MtGox when I post this, it is the start of a panic sell.
The buying 'whale' will probably stop the price going lower than 90, or he may just wait for the bottom.
I cancelled my buy order at 96 just 30 minutes before this started, I'm so glad I didn't oversleep.

PS. Already had the mid-drop rally, it remains to be seen if the 93 buy wall holds.
PS2. I had placed a buy order at 93.23, then changed my mind and cancelled it, a few minutes before this massive dump. Phew!

If I'd try to pay a whore with bitcoins, this would result in swearing and cursing, and her pimp would show up and demand fiat.

The current large gap between MtGox and other exchanges is due to the stalling of $ withdrawals by MtGox.
This has led the people who really need to withdraw $ from MtGox to buy BTC on MtGox and sell them on other exchanges.
Of course, some other people may be buying on other exchages and selling on MtGox, but without withdrawing much $.
It seems MtGox has a liquidity problem due to FinCEN certification costs, so the larger withdrawals are delayed, only smaller ones go through.
So it's still possible to take advantage of the price gap if you only sell small amounts of BTC on MtGox and withdraw small amounts of $.
I wonder what will happen if MtGox resumes full $ withdrawal, the price on other exchanges will go up, or the price on MtGox will go down?
Or what will happen if MtGox completely stops withdrawals again? That could kill their remaining credibility.

PS. Price is slowly moving downwards, but there's no way to tell if it will drop below 96. It will recover from a drop to 97.
If however it drops below 96, then based on movements recorded in the 30 day chart, I'd expect a panic sell and a drop to 85-88.

PS. I was sooo right! Actually, we'll see if this stops at 85-88...

The rather large buys on the 11th and 12th were at prices much lower than 100, lately there has been very little interest to buy above 100.
If no 'whale' absolutely wants to buy BTC above 100, then the current 95-100 may stick for a while.
But there's a large gap with other exchanges, and to me this signals a negative correction on MtGox is to be expected.
So my vote for the end of July goes to 80s, if not lower, in case there's a massive panic sell.

Why would anyone deposit $ into MtGox now, when there's such a large gap with other exchanges?
The clear option is to deposit at Bitstamp or BTC-E, where the market is at least 6$ lower, and then move the BTC to MtGox.

Well, I was wrong about price dropping to 50-60 before rising high.
The pump-up of these last 2 days is quite sharp. And no one seems to dump yet.
The attempted pump-up of the 25th June got squashed down immediately.
Question: where are those desperate sellers that on the 6th July drove the price down to 65?

The idea is good but it needs refining, here are my 2 satoshis. To get BTC widely adopted and the price rise high:
1) We need a free-to-play MMORPG in which you can ONLY buy in-game currency with BTC.
The amount of items (weapons, armor, scrolls, books, potions) that you can buy should be limited, for fairness,
to let's say 0.1 - 0.2 BTC per player. If there would be 5 - 10 million players, that could amount to 1 million BTC
added to the demand for BTC, which should keep the price above 200$ (at current difficulty rates).
2) Such a MMORPG should be really good, I mean not a POS that you can play for free, but a game in which
you should enjoy spending your time. So it's creation won't come cheap, probably around 10 million $.
3) The people who would invest in the creation of such a game should be large BTC holders, and they would sell their
BTC to the game players. Once the players get used to BTC for the game, they might use them for other purposes.

I believe that BTC will first drop to the 50-60 range, then major investors will push it to 120-140 through a massive buy,
just before the next financial crysis. Adoption of BTC has little to do with price now, this large price drop is mostly speculative.

Maybe someone wants to buy a ton of BTC at a lower price and has started this pump-down.
Looking at the order distribution, the price should be around 92 right now, and it's 82, the pump-down is obvious to me.
Once the sell orders accumulate at the desired value and volume, IMO there should be a massive buy.
Or it's just the market deciding that BTC has been overvalued for months... We'll see.