NO matter what happens with GOX investors, there will be variation with what these many investors do in the future. Some will jump back into BTC, and others will be scared off of BTC. Probably you recognize some of this variance in how investors will respond... but you make your statements in such a way to fail to account for such variations... which end up coming across as denigrations on a broad level... which may have some truth to it, but does NOT apply to everyone in the category.. and may NOT even apply to many in the category b/c the category or the referent has been left vague.
I think you are barking up the wrong end of the stick here. It was Aminorex who claimed that the Gox investors would be re-entering the market and that they could be considered market-movers in response to my question of new money(@Am...sorry if this summary is clumsy but hey). You could as easily level your accusations of 'broad brushstrokes' at Aminorex as at me. I'm not denigrating anyone for being in Gox or investing in BTC, beetles or anything else. I'm simply saying that when a financial scandal becomes global news the people impacted tend not to reinvest in the same market. And many will tell their friends and family not to go near BTC. Sure there will be variance but the majority will at best stay on the sidelines and wait and see. Wouldn't that be a fair comment given what we are seeing in the markets -- people are leaving.
Likely more people are coming into BTC rather than leaving... I say this b/c more and more people are finding out about BTC on a global level and in many countries, more and more channels are opening up to liquidate BTC in many countries, a large number of network innovations and developments are taking place (infrastructure). There are a variety of factors affecting bitcoin prices besides number of people "in." Maybe we get a price drop to $300.. ? I doubt it, but such a price drop is possible.. especially a flash crash of such. Actually, I did NOT think that BTC would be this low. Three weeks ago, I bought at $610, and I thought that BTC price was going up from there. Then kept buying MOAR BTC several times below $610.. while kept on thinking that we were NOT going to drop lower in price. but BTC prices keep getting lower. So far there is really no negative news about BTC and the fundamentals of BTC are still strong and solid.. so anyhow, it may take BTC a few months to get BTC price's upward momentum back.. though many people are thinking that the upward movement in price will come sooner than that. |
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There is no guarantee it will go back up again.
You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K. Or something like that. Finally some decent humor that does NOT seem to directly criticize or denigrate anyone specifically......  Just a general anti-bull assessment |
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Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could  So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose? my strategy too.. has been buying BTC as the price goes down.. and hoping that I am buying at the lowest, but the price keeps going down.. been buying BTC since late November. Have NOT lost anything yet, b/c my BTC portfolio is increasing... How about you shroomskit? what is your stake? what are you invested in? you making any money or taking any risks? you making any bets? |
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A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface.
I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.
Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.
Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold. Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy. So my finger has been on the buy trigger for about the last hour and a half while the price has been floating between $470 and 480.. but the price seems to be inching downward.. ... I am remaining a bit anxious and usually I can relax a bit.. once I have bought.. but according to you... maybe buy at $467 and then maybe again at $402.. if it gets there... |
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They officially denied a rumor a week earlier. I'm sure they think they have better things to do than deny every rumor that comes along. They had time to confirm on Frday also and they didn't do that.
Maybe but note that that this 'rumour' was in Chinese news, and also that rumour-spreading online is illegal in China. You wouldn't expect them to deny every online rumour by Tom Dick & Harry but when it's published in the news there is much more reason to consider making a statement, no? I expect they will likely make a statement one way or the other this Monday or Tuesday. The market is down because of uncertainty. A confirmation may even paradoxically cause the market to go up once the uncertainty is removed. It took a while, but that's what happened when Silk Road got busted. Just keep in mind that these rumors have been going around for four months. Gox rumors turned out to be true, so this might also. It's a real possibility, just less likely than the market has priced in, in my opinion. I keep wondering about what incentive the chinese have to clarify this.. They really like the uncertainty and snatching up MOAR coins.. .. maybe the rumor will float for a week or two and as the 15th gets closer chinese officials may feel a need to clarify the situation at that point.. or a week or so before the 15th? |
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Down we go everyone Time to figure out how to buy at this low price  I am NOT sure whether I am trying to figure out how.. but instead when. I would prefer to buy once at the lowest price... but If I were to know for sure that the price is going low by at lease $20 or $30, then I would sell and buy back.. but I am TOO chickenshit for that. I will probably buy a little once the price goes below $470, if it does.. and if it goes below $450 buy again... I had been doubting that the price would go below $450, but NOW we are getting closer and closer to such... so the odds for such a downfall seem to be getting greater and greater |
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. Lots of money was lost there, putting people permanently out of the game. Gox was one of the major, if not the major propellant upwards. With that money out of the game and not supporting the high price anymore, the price is set to go a lot lower than 500.
Permanently out of the game means dead. I don't think they died. Gox victims have a lot of btc to buy if they hope to recover. Yeah, that's how people think..."hhmmm...I lost a load of money on BTC...I have no money left...I'd better work harder to buy MORE BTC". C'mon... Hey.... that is what i have been doing.. more or less... It is called dollar cost averaging and I do NOT believe that i am crazy.. b/c it is an investment strategy.. have you heard of it? It is a pretty solid investment strategy when predicting that an asset is going to go back up in value. I began investing in BTC at $1200. And, BTC prices have been declining ever since. I have been buying BTC when the prices gets lower. Yes, you are probably behaving rationally under your assumptions, to a high degree -- whether you are correct or incorrect about your price trajectory assumptions is another question. But I think creekbore's point remains: Mass psychology is somewhat less rational, more brutish and reactive. "Once burned, twice shy" is an apt aphorism describing his inferred assumptions about market behaviour. Personally, I believe that you are giving Creekbore too much benefit of the doubt. But to each his own.... To me, Creekbore seems to be engaging in broad generalizations that may have some truth to them, but largely he seems to be denigrating others for being stupider than he is. Damned with faint praise (I think). Anyway, I don't claim to be smarter (or more stupid) than the next man. But the fact is lots of people lost money (cash or coins) on Gox...the fallout from that has been huge not just in publicity but word of mouth also. I'd suggest most of the money lost on Gox was not 'cultist coins' but Mr Average spending some investment money via what they'd read/seen in the media. They've lost that money now and they won't be coming back for a long time I suspect. Public confidence in a market/investment drops...it takes time to rebuild...time is the one thing 'new' BTCers don't have....everyone wants to double their money in a week. Those who say through 2012 know different. If you have a different hypothesis, I'd love to read it. I am not denigrating those people (indeed I fully understand their attitude). What I have trouble with is the idea they are going to rapidly reinvest in BTC (and lets recall most here castigated these people for using Gox in the first place). I have NO meaningful assessment to broadly categorize conduct b/c I am of the sense that there is going to be considerable variance regarding how people behave and how much knowledge they have and whether they act on their knowledge. Some people are really dumb and/or act on their emotions, and some people are lucky or unlucky. Many people chose NOT to invest in Gox after about mid-2013 b/c there seemed to be fishy practices at GOX, and others took their money out of GOX.. .and still others purposefully went to Gox for various reasons, including some who wanted to go and to get into GOX during the last week of its being opened for business b/c they though that it woudl be a great opportunity to pick up some BTC around $100. As we found out in retrospect, those who either knowingly or unknowingly took risks with GOX are likely going to have lost a certain percentage (possibly) all of their GOX BTC portfolio. NO matter what happens with GOX investors, there will be variation with what these many investors do in the future. Some will jump back into BTC, and others will be scared off of BTC. Probably you recognize some of this variance in how investors will respond... but you make your statements in such a way to fail to account for such variations... which end up coming across as denigrations on a broad level... which may have some truth to it, but does NOT apply to everyone in the category.. and may NOT even apply to many in the category b/c the category or the referent has been left vague. |
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[ ... ]
It is not a "threat in an argument"; it has nothing to do with bitcoin, it is about attacking my person instead of my posts. Why would I try to hide the fact that I delivered an apt and well deserved lesson to someone? Well, 'delivering a lesson' is clearly a euphemism.  I can only speak for myself and you know that I'm not attacking you personally. I have simply been asking you to try to be more objective and to endeavour not to mislead people. Otherwise you are guilty of almost the very same 'crime' that you accuse these mysterious Bitcoin 'salesmen' of committing. I'm sorry if you feel that this particular line of argument is ad hominem but if you are persistently selective about the arguments that you either ignore or respond to and if you consistently try to rehash dead issues in an effort to reinforce your own worldview - well, that's just not the same position that you're claiming to take. It is an intellectually dishonest technique - at the very least it is certainly perceived as such. I suspect that's what antagonises people so much. Ad hominem is pretty much the only option they have left - not that I consider it to be a particularly honourable or even appropriate option. So in the meantime you will continue to find that people either ignore your contributions and/or treat you with disdain, which is a very great shame because they would otherwise be most welcome. And I'm afraid that some people will always take things personally and direct insults towards you but that there is life on the Interweb. I speak from experience here - I've suffered much worse unwanted forum attentions without resorting to threats. I, and I'm sure many of the other grown-ups here, would be immensely grateful if you just took a moment to thoroughly challenge yourself and see that your position is just as you claim it to be. We do want you here Jorge - well I certainly do. But sometimes you make it damn hard to take you seriously.  I can assure you that any ad hominem attacks directed at you would be treated with immense disdain, by both those who agree and disagree, if people felt that you were approaching things in a truly scientific, objective and/or academic way, which after all is the banner under which you are standing. I mean no disrespect whatsoever and could not be more sincere. And in that spirit I shall endeavour to refrain from commenting on your posts from now on. Feel free to reciprocate the goodwill intended. Very well said KFR... though I think you were being too nice.... if that is possible.. b/c I have been getting very frustrated with the intellectual dishonest technique tactic that sometimes is subtle and can trick people in their thinking.. and b/c I have the sense that Jorge is a smart guy, I am inclined to think that he is employing this technique on purpose.. and without adequate disclaimers... which causes me to want to be less polite in my criticisms. Also, I find it problematic if you are providing assurances NOT to comment on his posts.. maybe that could be your overall practice; however, sometimes it is necessary for people to really call others on their misleading posts rather than saying that you will abstain... .. anyhow, in the end, you need to decide what makes you comfortable. |
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Whatever else is true, I think most people consider that anyone resorting to threats in any argument instantly loses any shred of credibility they had remaining.
I would agree with that, but to be fair, Jorge was being taunted like a nerd set upon by a pack of schoolyard bullies. No matter how reasonable and well-socialized and mature you may be, that sort of thing can elicit rash behaviour. It's not an environment of rational, respectful argument. It wasn't even worth the label "argument". I've spoken rashly here under less oppressive circumstances than that. Well yeah I get that... and I do sympathise. But it's not exactly his first day at the Internet. Furthermore I appear to be included in the threat target group and I really don't think I'm guilty of conducting a concerted effort to direct any vitriol towards him - certainly never anything of a personal nature. I've just expressed my increasing disappointment and frustration about his rather disingenuous 'technique', which is to present an agenda-driven opinion as if it were based on facts and objective research - not to mention consistently and consciously recycling already debunked arguments. I too would prefer that all the people he antagonises would show some respect and civility - but throwing your toys out of the pram and threatening to 'teach people a serious and unforgettable lesson with just a few keystrokes' sounds like something an angry teenage script kiddy might say; not an academic of his years and experience. The cultists picking on Jorge again while forgetting a significant fact. Jorge is Jorge, one of the few with the balls to front up on his identity here, a fact that is regularly used against him. It seems bizarre that he can be accused of being insincere by people who hide behind pseudonyms. As regards 'civility'...I've yet to see Jorge be uncivil to anyone here, while he is regularly subject to personal abuse. Jorge seems like a good guy. I think the only thing that is frustrating to some of us is why he doesn't want to "join the fun" so to speak and just pick up a coin or two. I suppose the frustrations of those that do not feel that he is "part of the team" is what can come out in antagonistic ways. We should appreciate his honesty and his contribution to the board in that he brings different viewpoints here. That said, I honestly wish he would buy a coin. I wish everyone I know would. Not for selfish reasons, but out of a sincere and altruistic desire for them to have something invested in one of the greatest opportunities that may come up in our lifetime. He does NOT have to buy a whole BTC. He can buy .1BTC or some other convenient amount in order that he can experience the process of buying and maybe trading and transferring, etc. etc. If you are gonna be a scholar on any subject, you should gain some experiences withing.. especially both the eases and the frustrations of such. Actually, it may give Jorge more to bitch about (and to educate us in that regard) when he figure out that it can be fairly technically difficult to accomplish certain kinds of bitcoin related tasks.... and that in other regards, it can be very easy and smooth to accomplish other tasks. |
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Bitchick is a legend, always positive since day one she posted here Ahh. I guess I am extremely optimistic. BitChicksHusband was warning me today that on the next run in price we will sell some coins.  Why does this make me sad? I then argue with him about it. I think I have a problem. I am more than a Bitcoin Hodler. I am a Bitcoin Hoarder! There is a time for everything. A time to hold and a time to sell. I will just have to let go as painful as it might be. Maybe it depends upon how many BTC you have? If you have less than 100BTC, then maybe would NOT want to get rid of too many, at that $3,000 price, but if you have 1000BTC, then getting rid of 100BTC may be easier to deal with at $3,000 That is my point. We are not that early of adopters so we don't have a huge amount and that is why I just want to hold as long as possible. But there comes a point where one can sell systematically and buy back in during consolidation periods. It does make sense to a certain degree. You are about 8 months earlier than me... so in that regard, makes perfect sense to me for you to take some profits once in a while... I am NOT quite to that stage yet, but if the price reaches even $1500 I may take a little profit... Of course, we have to consider how fast the price is going up.. and if there is a run, then that seems to be a good time to take some profit.. and buy back in later. Then, in essence, at some point, you may be playing completely with house money. And, that point of having a considerable amount of one's investment as house money, is a very decent place to be, if one can get to that place (with some luck and some timing and some strategy). |
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Bitchick is a legend, always positive since day one she posted here Ahh. I guess I am extremely optimistic. BitChicksHusband was warning me today that on the next run in price we will sell some coins. Why does this make me sad? I then argue with him about it. I think I have a problem. I am more than a Bitcoin Hodler. I am a Bitcoin Hoarder! There is a time for everything. A time to hold and a time to sell. I will just have to let go as painful as it might be. Maybe it depends upon how many BTC you have? If you have less than 100BTC, then maybe would NOT want to get rid of too many, at that $3,000 price, but if you have 1000BTC, then getting rid of 100BTC may be easier to deal with at $3,000 |
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Just checked my Virwox transaction history. I bought my first Bitcoin on March 29th 2013.
Happy anniversity, and I am sure she is happy that you remembered. |
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Warned of what? I'm not following.
That insistence on discussing Jorge Stolfi instead of his posts may necessitate a lesson that will not be forgotten. O>K>... it is fair to say that it is more important to talk about substance rather than ad hominem attacks... but part of the attack on you relates to some of your stupid-ass substance.. and some of your whimsical claims that are couched in an appearance of professionalism that is deceptive. NOW you seem to be sinking to even lower level of what seems to be a kind of threat. Why NOT just keep posting and making your arguments rather than escalating to eye for an eye type talk? |
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Is it me or does the OP keep changing the Poll question after people voted to suit his bullish agenda?
I am sure the question I voted on said "will the price be below $500". So i voted yes.
Now it has a different question, with the same votes/results...
or should I stop drinking?
pretty sure i reset the votes, i try to change the poll daily and always reset the votes. It woudl be interesting if the poll results were shown.. historically, like chart buddy. |
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Is it me or does the OP keep changing the Poll question after people voted to suit his bullish agenda?
I am sure the question I voted on said "will the price be below $500". So i voted yes.
Now it has a different question, with the same votes/results...
or should I stop drinking?
Yes... ADAM seems to be completely out of his mind with poll questions ... the questions are like bitcoin, difficult to predict and manipulated |
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Regarding, Jorge, the level of paranoia in here is getting a little scary (and I talk as someone who tries to maintain a high level of paranoia). Jorge is wrong (IMO) but sincere. No one is seriously going to be trying to control the market through this forum (unless it is the market for pictures of rockets and trains).
I really don't think anyone's seriously worried about that. I think people are just losing patience with all the repeatedly flogged dead horses and straw men. It does get a little irritating to read.. from time to time.. especially when it seems pretty apparent that they poster knows s/he is presenting a debunked argument or inflammatory and /or exaggerated phraseology just to seemingly spread FUD |
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Let's try to be nice now. I know it can be challenging when you're born to contend for domination of the universe, but let's all try. TA from another thread: Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.  Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones? First : Is there some kind of scale in the chart? Second: Past is not a predictor of future performance. Third: there may be different variables at play that affect the present performance to make it different from the first - intensity of government attention and sabotage.. or mt gox variable... Don't get me wrong... I believe that is a more persuasive chart as compared with some other charts that I have seen... b/c I get the sense that the various variables that could change future performance are NOT significantly different to make a difference.. at least at the moment... |
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So the reason why the price is cheap is: somebody wants to do it, but they cannot coerce people to sell if they believe that it goes to the moon. So they instill as much fear as possible. Pretty well done..  Just remember - you only make money if you BUY in this kind of situations and SELL when it is toppy. Other way round you are sheep, baa baa. Rather: the reason price is still up is because those who hold thousands of coins need other people to invest so that the price will go up. So they pay for ads and positive reviews, to keep spreading lies and hiding the uncomfortable facts. Jorgi, are you a paid troll? Serious question. Of course the answer is not. Are you a paid salesman? Why so defensive?? If you are a paid troll, are you allowed to deny it? I guess you would be. But your defensiveness makes it seem like you're more guilty. You are just being argumentative Windjc... for a couple of reasons... first of all, Jorge has denied this accusation several times and second, even if it were true, he is NOT going to admit it... so, it is a waste of time to ask or to continue to ask and it seems to be just provoking an argument for NO Apparent good reason... |
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 its telling me go short. I do NOT understand why the bottom line is shorter than the top one. You are just trying to line them up with what you consider to be logical points? I am NOT suggesting any manipulation.. I am just wondering, since there seems to be quite a bit of line drawing variation. im not sure what you mean by the bottom line shorter, do you mean why have I shaved off the tip of the low? because Im trying to illustrate what I believe is a wedge to the best of my ability, not because it's shaped like a pretty triangle, but because it is a contracting range, and liquidity is dry. Those lines meet the points of greatest co-incidence. Also notice how the bottom was quickly rejected out of the the territory of 465, and rested on the lower trend line I have drawn. I don't know enough about line drawing in order to know the more relevant questions to ask. My initial impression was that the top line was measuring from a different time period; however, if you are saying that this chart is measuring BTC performance from the same time period ( one day or two days or three days), then fine.. you may want to use that as a guide to decide probabilities that BTC price is going to go in one direction or another. In other words, I may have initially misread the time period for which you were drawing the lines... |
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its telling me go short. I do NOT understand why the bottom line is shorter than the top one. You are just trying to line them up with what you consider to be logical points? I am NOT suggesting any manipulation.. I am just wondering, since there seems to be quite a bit of line drawing variation. |
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